Post#17 » by trex_8063 » Thu Feb 4, 2021 5:41 pm
1st vote: Robert Parish
So yeah.....I'm a meaningful longevity guy. This is not a secret, nor new. And Parish is actually my clear top pick via my criteria; as my list stands now, there's actually no one left on the table who's even within 5 places of Parish.
But seriously:
Parish was an entirely fine two-way player [and was so for a really damn long time].
While I think he’s somewhat more remembered for his offense, he was also a very capable defender thru much of his career (especially early on).
For example, during his first SEVEN seasons in the league......
*He never averaged less than 2.8 blocks per 100 possessions (and as high as 4.4).
**In both ‘79 and ‘81 he was 4th in the league in bpg despite playing just 31.7 and 28.0 mpg; was 5th in ‘82 while playing just 31.7 mpg, too.
***He had a cumulative 97 DRtg, leading the league in DRtg in ‘79; had a DRtg in the top 8 four times (three times in the top 3).
Offensively, he was a 7-footer who ran the floor pretty well, while being a competent finisher (making him one of the more notable transition threats among the centers of his era). He was a very very good low-post scorer (could utilize a little hook shot, or that crazy high-arcing turnaround of his), and also had a tiny bit of range (out to about 12-14 feet, anyway, he was quite effective).
Was an entirely decent FT-shooter for a big-man (72.1% for his career).
The primary reason he was averaging just 16-20 ppg during his prime was because he was playing on an extremely stacked team thru most of it. I've little doubt prime Parish could have avg ~23-24 ppg for a less talent-laden club.
While I don't think Parish could have been “the man” on a contender, I think we’re well past the point on the list where that is a necessary consideration. Especially when one has the kind of longevity that Parish had: he had a prime that basically lasted 13 years (>1,000 rs games), and five other seasons as decent role player of varying (but certainly relevant) value; only 3 seasons (years 19-21) that were of negligible or nil value.
And while he couldn’t have been #1 on a contender, he certainly could have been the #1 on a 40-45 win playoff participant. I think this was more or less proven in '89 when Bird missed the entire season: Parish was arguably the best player [at worst a "1B"] on a 42-win team.....this was at age 35 (the single-oldest man on the Celtic roster). No Bird to feed him, but old-man Parish still averaged 18.6 ppg @ +7.0% rTS, to go with 12.5 rpg and 1.5 bpg.
And he was clearly capable of being the #2 on a contender. Indeed, he WAS either the 2nd or 3rd best player on MULTIPLE contenders.
He’s got one ring as the clear #2 ('81), another as---at worst---the #2B ('84), a third ring as the clear #3 ('86), and then a 4th ring as a sparsely used limited-value bench player ('97).
He was 7th in MVP voting in ‘81, 4th in MVP voting in ‘82.
A look at his prime production…….
Robert Parish (‘79-’91) (13 years: 1022 rs games!)
Per 100 (rs): 25.8 pts, 15.6 reb, 2.5 ast, 1.3 stl, 2.5 blk with 3.6 tov @ 58.4% TS
PER 20.2, .168 WS/48, 113 ORtg/102 DRtg (+11) in 32.4 mpg
Playoffs Per 100: 22.9 pts, 13.9 reb, 1.9 ast, 1.2 stl, 2.5 blk, 3.2 tov @ .551 TS%
PER 16.5, .121 WS/48 in 34.9 mpg
Robert Parish (full career)
Per 100 (rs): 24.6 pts, 15.5 reb, 2.3 ast, 1.3 stl, 2.5 blk, 3.5 tov @ .571 TS%
PER 19.2, .154 WS/48, 111 ORtg/102 DRtg (+9) in 28.4 mpg
**And note this is over 21 years, 1611 rs games (more than any other player in history)
Per 100 (playoffs): 22.6 pts, 14.2 reb, 1.9 ast, 1.2 stl, 2.5 blk, 3.1 tov @ .547 TS%
PER 16.6, .121 WS/48, 109 ORtg/105 DRtg (+4) in 33.6 mpg
Career rs WS: 147.0 (#26 all-time)
Career playoff WS: 15.6 (#39 all-time)
9-Time NBA All-Star
2-Time All-NBA (1x 2nd, 1x 3rd)
That’s an awful lot of career value, imo.
2nd vote: Bob Lanier
A big body with sweet shooting touch in the mid and close ranges, very good rebounder, fair passing big. Sporadically [like in '74] was a good defensive big, though overall probably not so much. But when looking at his production, efficiency, and signs of lift, as well as his totally decent longevity (generously might be said to have had a 9-year prime [so so], but 14 mostly durable seasons in which he was ALWAYS good).......he seems like a worthy candidate for this stage.
From '72-'80 (extended prime) he averaged roughly 28 pts/100 possessions [give or take a couple tenths], ~14.4 reb/100, and ~4.2 ast/100 @ +4.2% rTS with a fair/respectable big-man turnover economy [based on '78-'84].
This is all while averaging 37.4 mpg thru those 9 seasons.
In '74 he averaged 1.6 steals and 3.7 blocks per 100 possessions with a 27.1% DREB%, anchoring a -3.9 rDRTG [3rd of 17 teams]. He had both the league's best individual DRtg AND the league's best DBPM (this was a league that contained Dave Cowens and Kareem).
Granted, that year appears like a completely outlier for him [defensively], but it's still worth acknowledging.
His WOWYR is more than strong for this stage of the list, with a prime WOWYR of +5.4 (career WOWYR of +5.8).
This jives with some of my own more crude WOWY studies for Lanier [omitted his first four years since he only missed four games TOTAL in that span]......
With/Without Records and Wins added per season (pro-rated to 82 games)
‘75: 39-37 (.513) with Lanier, 1-5 (.167) without him/+28.4 wins
‘76: 30-34 (.469) with Lanier, 6-12 (.333) without him/+11.1 wins
‘77: 38-26 (.594) with Lanier, 6-12 (.333) without him/+21.4 wins
‘78: 31-32 (.492) with Lanier, 7-12 (.368) without him/+10.2 wins
‘79: 21-32 (396) with Lanier, 9-20 (.310) without him/+7.1 wins
‘80 Pistons: 9-28 (.243) with Lanier, 5-12 (.294) without
‘80 Pistons overall before trading Lanier for Kent Benson): 14-40 (.259)
‘80 Pistons after trade: 2-26 (.071)
‘80 Bucks before obtaining Lanier: 29-27 (.518)
‘80 Bucks after obtaining Lanier: 20-6 (.769) (Lanier played all 26 games)
‘81: 48-19 (.716) with Lanier, 12-3 (.800) without him/-6.9 wins
‘82: 53-21 (.716) with Lanier, 2-6 (.250) without him/+38.2 wins
The above data spans eight years, SIX different head coaches, and a fair amount of supporting cast turnover, fwiw.
He always took a back seat to some of the other great centers of his day, as he just never seemed to be on a team that could generate the narrative. I'll back-track to that '74 season, because it was a pretty impressive accomplishment (almost a "carry-job", I would say [and I HATE that term, and feel it's way over-used])......but they won 52 games with a +4.02 SRS [2nd of 17] with just Lanier, post-injury Dave Bing, and nothing much behind that [Curtis Rowe was probably the 3rd-best player].
They lost in the first round, though it was in 7-games to 54-win +3.20 SRS Bulls team that boasted Chet Walker, Jerry Sloan, Bob Love, and Norm Van Lier; and the Pistons actually outscored them by 2.3 ppg in the series. The Piston victories were by 9, 14, and 4; while their losses were by 5, 1, 4, and 2.
sansterre would probably say they merely lost a coin-toss, or even that they may have been the marginally better team.
I'm also going to refer to sansterre's post #14 itt (the #54 thread).
3rd pick gets hard.
I guess I'll go with [throws dart]......
3rd vote: Anthony Davis(???)
Was thinking really hard about breaking the ice on Allen Iverson, too. Bob Cousy and Elvin Hayes are guys I'd be more or less comfortable supporting here, too.
I think AD is arguably the best peak left on the board [imo it's between him, Giannis, and TMac, for that distinction]. Whereas TMac has a clear [almost outlier] peak season ('03), I think AD actually has a couple years of similar value (I think quite highly of his '15 campaign, which I think gets slept on).
He's proven to be a good floor-raiser, and fit nicely next to Lebron to be the best 1-2 punch in the league on what ultimately was the championship team.
Came into the league as pretty much a borderline All-Star as a rookie [and as mentioned was (imo) at least weak MVP tier by his 3rd season], so though he's got only 8 seasons, he's packed a considerable amount of value in there.
"The fact that a proposition is absurd has never hindered those who wish to believe it." -Edward Rutherfurd
"Those who can make you believe absurdities, can make you commit atrocities." - Voltaire
