RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #54 (Dave Cowens)

[DQuinn1575]

Sam Jones had great playoff success. He was 2nd team all-nba behind West and Robertson, which is really no slam on virtually anyone, his regular season value is reflected in two top 5 mvp finishes. His playoff value is shown in 5 seasons of excellent stats, and game 7 performances - averaging 27 ppg while achieving a 9-0 record.
Longevity was impacted somewhat by two years in military, but played very well in last year at age compared to others in his era.

Dave Cowens was a top player in the league, surpassing both of these players in his peak, but didnt last as long, and didnt have the playoff successes as Jones.
Arizin is similar, I have him lower than Cowens.



1 Sam Jones
2 Dave Cowens
3 Paul Arizin

[DQuinn1575]

I mean I did say Gervin's performance in the 78 play-offs was impressive despite the first round exit and the 79 play-offs was impressive because the Spurs took two on paper stronger teams to 7 games, winning one and losing the other, and this was mostly on the back of Gervin's strong performance. 1980 was strong as well but only 3 games so I don't rate it too highly. He also has a couple of similar-ish ABA play-offs with good performances without the team success.

While it is entirely possible for Gervin to have been much better than Reed and Kawhi in a similar situation, his performances in the play-offs make me wary of Gervin's ability to lead a team all the way and with him declining in his late 20s already I'm not seeing a supposed longevity edge either. There is a reason why players like T-Mac and AD haven't been voted in yet either and despite both of them having peaked very high with the longevity to back it up, they did not elevate their teams to enough play-off success to warrant them getting in yet.

I'm not looking at this list as a who would be the best in any given situation and in a way you could blame me with winning bias but I simply think post-season success is a significant part of a player's legacy.

WIllis Reed playoffs after age 27
28 -PER 13.5 /WS48 .065
30 - PER 15.1/WS48 .096
31 - PER 5.4/WS48 (.057)

He has 4 great playoff series, and then these 3 -
Gervin wasn't stellar at this age either - but his numbers at age 28 and 30 are better than any of the post 27 years than Willis.
He winds up with 9 years of PER above 16, and WS48 at ,092 - about as good as Willis's 5th best year.
Gervin got MVP votes for 7 years vs Willis's 3.
You can definitely argue Willis peaked higher - but it was pretty short - honestly I have Cowens and Willis about the same; I didnt have to evaluate them here since Willis went in already- I would want to look at the stats with fresh eyes before I would call one over the other.

[trex_8063]

Thru post #42:

Adrian Dantley - 2 (Joao Saraiva, Odinn21)
Bob Cousy - 1 (Hal14)
Sam Jones - 1 (DQuinn1575)
Paul Arizin - 1 (Dutchball97)
Bob Lanier - 1 (sansterre)
Dave Cowens - 1 (Cavsfansince84)
Robert Parish - 1 (trex_8063)
Alex English - 1 (penbeast0)


9 votes for 8 different players......
I'm going to leave this for another hour or so, in the hopes we get one more vote that makes it simpler to determine a winner. But on the chance that doesn't happen, if the rest of you [9] can let me know (either itt, or via PM) your order between ALL EIGHT of the above players.......it may come to that.

For the record, I'm going Parish > Lanier > Cousy > Cowens > Dantley > Jones/Arizin/English. (need to think more on those last three, they're all clustered together for me; EDIT: though I'm leaning Jones > Arizin > English)

Spoiler:

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[quote=”sansterre”].[/quote]

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[Cavsfansince84]

Thru post #42:

Adrian Dantley - 2 (Joao Saraiva, Odinn21)
Bob Cousy - 1 (Hal14)
Sam Jones - 1 (DQuinn1575)
Paul Arizin - 1 (Dutchball97)
Bob Lanier - 1 (sansterre)
Dave Cowens - 1 (Cavsfansince84)
Robert Parish - 1 (trex_8063)
Alex English - 1 (penbeast0)


9 votes for 8 different players......
I'm going to leave this for another hour or so, in the hopes we get one more vote that makes it simpler to determine a winner. But on the chance that doesn't happen, if the rest of you [9] can let me know (either itt, or via PM) your order between ALL EIGHT of the above players.......it may come to that.

For the record, I'm going Parish > Lanier > Cousy > Cowens > Dantley > Jones/Arizin/English. (need to think more on those last three, they're all clustered together for me; EDIT: though I'm leaning Jones > Arizin > English)

Cowens>Jones>Cousy>Lanier>Arizin>Dantley>English>Parish

[sansterre]

Lanier > Cowens > Davis > Parish > Dantley > English > Jones > Cousy > Arizin

[trex_8063]

Thru post #45:

Adrian Dantley - 2 (Joao Saraiva, Odinn21)
Bob Cousy - 1 (Hal14)
Sam Jones - 1 (DQuinn1575)
Paul Arizin - 1 (Dutchball97)
Bob Lanier - 1 (sansterre)
Dave Cowens - 1 (Cavsfansince84)
Robert Parish - 1 (trex_8063)
Alex English - 1 (penbeast0)


OK, waited an extra 90 minutes, no new votes. So we're stuck with the 9 votes for 8 players, which makes Dantley the default winner.
But I now need to validate it [via Condorcet method], else we go to a runoff between two or more players.
SO I NEED EVERYONE ABOVE to give me their order between all eight players above, quick as you can please [thank you Cavsfansince84 and sansterre].
EDIT: Well, technically I don't need to hear from you if you actually had Dantley on your ballot anywhere, because I then know how you rate him vs the rest of this field (though it might be handy to know some of these rankings in advance for future threads).
The rest of you though.....need to hear from you.

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[quote=”sansterre”].[/quote]

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[penbeast0]

Adrian Dantley - 2 (Joao Saraiva, Odinn21)
Bob Cousy - 1 (Hal14)
Sam Jones - 1 (DQuinn1575)
Paul Arizin - 1 (Dutchball97)
Bob Lanier - 1 (sansterre)
Dave Cowens - 1 (Cavsfansince84)
Robert Parish - 1 (trex_8063)
Alex English - 1 (penbeast0)

English, Dantley, Cowens, . . . Arizin, Jones, . . . Cousy, Lanier, Parish

[trex_8063]

btw, I can tell you right now just from the information I have already that there WILL be a runoff; I just need to hear from some others to figure out if it's going to be a simple 2-player runoff, or if it will be 3 [or more].

A sudden-death runoff between 3+ players should be interesting (based on the previously established protocol for runoff).

[DQuinn1575]

Adrian Dantley - 2 (Joao Saraiva, Odinn21)
Bob Cousy - 1 (Hal14)
Sam Jones - 1 (DQuinn1575)
Paul Arizin - 1 (Dutchball97)
Bob Lanier - 1 (sansterre)
Dave Cowens - 1 (Cavsfansince84)
Robert Parish - 1 (trex_8063)
Alex English - 1 (penbeast0)

English, Dantley, Cowens, . . . Arizin, Jones, . . . Cousy, Lanier, Parish

Jones Cowens Arizin Cousy Lanier Dantley parish English

[Hal14]

Cousy
Cowens
Lanier
Parish
English
Jones
Arizin
Dantley

[Odinn21]

Dantley > Parish > Lanier > Cousy > Cowens > Arizin > English > Jones

This is getting interesting.

[Dutchball97]

Arizin > Jones > Cowens > Dantley > Lanier > English > Parish > Cousy

[trex_8063]

As per protocol, a default winner must be validated via Condorcet against other finalists [in this case: SEVEN other finalists]. He doesn't have to beat them all in Condorcet, he merely cannot LOSE in order to uphold his default victory [although with an odd number of votes a tie is impossible].
Anyone he does lose to in Condorcet, he must face in sudden death runoff. Well, here are the Condorcet results....

Dantley trashes English 7-2
He beat Parish fairly soundly 6-3, too.
He barely edges Cousy, Arizin, and Jones by a 5-4 margin.

However, he LOSES to Lanier 4-5, and to Cowens by a margin of 3-6.

fwiw, Cowens leads Lanier 5-3 [with 1 unknown who I haven't yet heard from: Joao Saraiva].

[trex_8063]

As per protocol noted in main thread, and with results stated in post #53, we must enter a sudden death runoff between THREE players (this should be interesting).

Protocol for a our sudden death indicates that the first player to receive at least TWO new runoff votes AND obtain/maintain a Condorcet lead wins the spot.
However, in the event the criteria is not satisfied within ~24 hours of start of the runoff, we'll simply take the all-around Condorcet leader as winner of the spot (if there's a tie, well.....I guess we'll have to extend things longer).

Those of you who are among the 9 original voters, you don't need to do anything more (except for Joao Saraiva:
I need to know your favourite between Lanier and Cowens, for Condorcet purposes); I already have your opinions/order logged.

We need new voters for the runoff. New voters please state your order between Dantley, Cowens, and Lanier.
Whomever you list first will count as your "runoff vote", but as it's three players we'll need your order for Condorcet purposes.

Anyone already on the voter panel is eligible to participate in the runoff. Maybe some of those who've at least sporadically participated recently will return to help us settle this (Doctor MJ? Joe Malburg? euroleague? Baski? La Bird? someone??....)

Spoiler:

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[quote=”sansterre”].[/quote]

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[DQuinn1575]

As per protocol, a default winner must be validated via Condorcet against other finalists [in this case: SEVEN other finalists]. He doesn't have to beat them all in Condorcet, he merely cannot LOSE in order to uphold his default victory [although with an odd number of votes a tie is impossible].
Anyone he does lose to in Condorcet, he must face in sudden death runoff. Well, here are the Condorcet results....

Dantley trashes English 7-2
He beat Parish fairly soundly 6-3, too.
He barely edges Cousy, Arizin, and Jones by a 5-4 margin.

However, he LOSES to Lanier 4-5, and to Cowens by a margin of 3-6.

fwiw, Cowens leads Lanier 5-3 [with 1 unknown who I haven't yet heard from: Joao Saraiva].

Question- does Cowens beat everyone head to head in preference? If so should that have any bearing?

[Clyde Frazier]

--

Dantley > Lanier > Cowens

[Odinn21]

Dantley > Lanier > Cowens

[penbeast0]

Dantley/Cowens/Lanier

[trex_8063]

Question- does Cowens beat everyone head to head in preference? If so should that have any bearing?

Absolutely; that's basically what the Condorcet method is. And it's what is giving him a fair/decent shot of winning this spot despite the fact that Dantley had more 1st-place votes.

Dantley > Lanier > Cowens

Dantley/Cowens/Lanier

Thanks guys, but:

Those of you who are among the 9 original voters, you don't need to do anything more (except for Joao Saraiva:
I need to know your favourite between Lanier and Cowens, for Condorcet purposes); I already have your opinions/order logged.

Joao Saraiva is the only one of the original 9 voters I need to hear from [regarding his order between Cowens and Lanier]; for the rest of you I already have your votes and order catalogued.

The runoff is otherwise down to NEW voters [like Clyde Frazier above].

[penbeast0]

What can I say, we Dantley fans are a bit fanatic