Official Trade Thread -- Part XL

[Ruzious]

Say we get lucky and get Mobley in the draft. Would it then be crazy if we trade Beal in a 3 way involving Minnesota with Towns coming here? Then trade Bryant and or Bertans for a guard. We'd still have Rui and Avdija - that's a talented front court. And still have TBJ, Westbrook, Mathews and the guard we traded for. Gotta figure out who the guard is. Ha - Norman Powell would be convenient.

The way I look at it, you have two elite players, you want one to be a big and the other to be a ball-handling guard/wing. If we landed Mobley, I wouldn't trade our elite guard/wing for another big. I'd just keep Beal. If we were worried about Beal being 8 years older than Mobley, then I would look to trade Beal for a younger guard/wing - maybe MPJ and stuff, or maybe for a draft pick high enough to land Suggs or Cunningham.

But whatever the case, I don't see why landing Mobley would prompt you to try and trade for Towns.

Because Mobley's great defense offsets Townes' weakness in defense. You can win a championship with Townes if he has someone like Mobley playing next to him.

[No-Man]

You aren't getting Towns, he isn't getting traded this summer

[Ruzious]

Speaking of Minnesota, a weird draft trade rule question just came to mind. They've obviously traded their pick to GS with top 3 protection. Because they still have some ownership of that pick (if it ends up in the top 3), can they trade that limited ownership in a separate trade? And to avoid the Stepien rule preventing it, let's say they have another 2022 frp - or get another in the trade of their rights to their 2021 pick.

[payitforward]

...Tell me, who was a better NBA player? Was it

Ryan Anderson?

Or was it one of:

Michael Beasley?
(...13 other names)
Alexis Ajinca?...
In fact, of the next 5 guys taken after Anderson -- Courtney Lee, Kosta Koufos, Serge Ibaka, Nic Batum & George Hill -- at least 3 were also better than any of the above list. & the other 2 were better than most of them.

Why do you constantly repeat this brutal exercise? We all get it. Treat the NBA draft like the NFL draft and get as many picks as possible because the risk of drafting a bust is high after a top 3 pick. I think you've made your viewpoint as clear as possible....

Apparently not, since that isn't my viewpoint!

Rosters aren't big enough to treat the draft as is done in the NFL. &, though it's true that the chances of drafting a bust with e.g. the #8 pick are higher than with the #3 pick, that isn't my point either.

My point is that NBA GMs/FOs are simply incapable of ranking (i.e. picking) players in the order of how good they are or will be in the league. Not just after the 3d pick.

In fact, about 1/3 of the guys picked from 1-3 in the draft turn out to be busts.

&, of course, the % rises from then on. The idea that we can talk about our pick position in future drafts without considering this fact is kind of foolish, don't you think? Yet, right here in this group of dedicated, thoughtful fans we read -- over & over! -- smart people talk about the difference between having the #4 pick & the #9 pick as if it mattered.

It doesn't matter at all. Not even a little. & THAT is my point.

I'd rather have, for example, the #9 pick plus the #28 pick than the #4 pick alone in any draft from now until eternity. Occasionally, it'll turn out that you'd have been better off w/ the #4, but in the overwhelming majority of cases you'll do better -- usually way better -- with #9 & #29.

& there is no NBA team that can't accommodate 2 rookies -- or 3, really, given the new 17-player rosters.

It would be helpful though to move past the historical markers.

“Those that fail to learn from history are doomed to repeat it.” -- Winston Churchill

No one cares that we could have had George Hill or Ryan Anderson.

Instead of Javale McGee? Gone in 3 years? Really? How about Ibaka?

Would anyone have preferred Serge Ibaka to Javale McGee? No?

I'd rather hear insight from you on what we can get in 2021 not 2008.

Oh, you will! But, it's a little early for me: beyond the obvious suspects, I don't have much of a take yet.

[nate33]

Speaking of Minnesota, a weird draft trade rule question just came to mind. They've obviously traded their pick to GS with top 3 protection. Because they still have some ownership of that pick (if it ends up in the top 3), can they trade that limited ownership in a separate trade? And to avoid the Stepien rule preventing it, let's say they have another 2022 frp - or get another in the trade of their rights to their 2021 pick.

I don't see why not. As long as there isn't some permutation whereby the could conceivably end up trading picks in two consecutive drafts, I don't think there's any rules against it.

[nate33]

My point is that NBA GMs/FOs are simply incapable of ranking (i.e. picking) players in the order of how good they are or will be in the league. Not just after the 3d pick.

In fact, about 1/3 of the guys picked from 1-3 in the draft turn out to be busts.

&, of course, the % rises from then on. The idea that we can talk about our pick position in future drafts without considering this fact is kind of foolish, don't you think? Yet, right here in this group of dedicated, thoughtful fans we read -- over & over! -- smart people talk about the difference between having the #4 pick & the #9 pick as if it mattered.

It doesn't matter at all. Not even a little. & THAT is my point.

I'd rather have, for example, the #9 pick plus the #28 pick than the #4 pick alone in any draft from now until eternity. Occasionally, it'll turn out that you'd have been better off w/ the #4, but in the overwhelming majority of cases you'll do better -- usually way better -- with #9 & #29.

I think Dat2U would argue that he is better than most GM's and he would indeed do a better job with #4 and #9. I think his track record would back that up.

[pcbothwel]

Speaking of Minnesota, a weird draft trade rule question just came to mind. They've obviously traded their pick to GS with top 3 protection. Because they still have some ownership of that pick (if it ends up in the top 3), can they trade that limited ownership in a separate trade? And to avoid the Stepien rule preventing it, let's say they have another 2022 frp - or get another in the trade of their rights to their 2021 pick.

I don't see why not. As long as there isn't some permutation whereby the could conceivably end up trading picks in two consecutive drafts, I don't think there's any rules against it.

Yeah... A lot of people get bogged down with the Stepien rule when thinking about picks, but people forget two things that make it flexible:
1) A team can remove protections on a pick to allow for future trades.
I.E. GSW owes their 2024 pick to Memphis with top 4 protection in 2024, top 1 protection in 2025, unprotected in 2026. This means the soonest pick they can trade in the out years is 2028. However, they can remove the protection (Maybe get a future 2nd from Memphis) and then trade their 2026 pick.

2) A team doesnt need their own picks, but ANY 1st. In the case of Minny that Ruz mentioned, they can get trade for a late 1st in 2022. The only caveat is the pick cant be protected.

[payitforward]

Way to completely miss the point, Nat.

Tell me, who was a better NBA player? Was it

Ryan Anderson?

Or was it one of:

Michael Beasley?
O.J. Mayo?
Joe Alexander?
D.J. Augustin?
Brook Lopez?
Jerryd Bayless?
Jason Thompson?
Brandon Rush?
Anthony Randolph?
Robin Lopez?
Marreese Speights?
Roy Hibbert?
Javale McGee?
J.J. Hickson?
Alexis Ajinca?

That's 15 of the top 20 picks. Most, though not all, were terrible, & none of them as good as the #21 pick, Ryan Anderson. I didn't list Eric Gordon, who was the #7 pick, b/c someone will like him ("he can get his own shot"), but I could have, b/c Anderson was a better player than Gordon.

In fact, of the next 5 guys taken after Anderson -- Courtney Lee, Kosta Koufos, Serge Ibaka, Nic Batum & George Hill -- at least 3 were also better than any of the above list. & the other 2 were better than most of them.

Why do you constantly repeat this brutal exercise? We all get it. Treat the NBA draft like the NFL draft and get as many picks as possible because the risk of drafting a bust is high after a top 3 pick. I think you've made your viewpoint as clear as possible. It would be helpful though to move past the historical markers. No one cares that we could have had George Hill or Ryan Anderson. I'd rather hear insight from you on what we can get in 2021 not 2008.

I also think PIF discounts the complications of trying to develop multiple young players at the same time. You can't trade down from 1 high pick to 5 guys in the 25-30 range and then expect to be able to develop all 5 guys at the same time. Particularly if you did the same thing the year before. Rosters are only so big. There are only so many minutes available at each position. And sometimes you want a couple of veterans to lead by example and to take some of the pressure off.

Common sense, to be sure -- & despite my yearly exercise of trying to find the 5-7 guys I'd like to pick, it's obvious that you can't change 5-7 guys a year! Let alone have them all be rookies....

At the same time, we did change that many both after 2017-18 & after 2018-19. & we have 6 players on this year's 15-man roster who weren't with us last year. So maybe that's true.

As to developing multiple young players -- which problem would you rather have had in 2008? Developing O.J. Mayo -- 1 guy -- or developing Serge Ibaka, Nic Batum, & DeAndre Jordan?

Anyway, getting a zillion rookies is not my point -- understanding how to value picks is my point.

[Dat2U]

I also think PIF discounts the complications of trying to develop multiple young players at the same time. You can't trade down from 1 high pick to 5 guys in the 25-30 range and then expect to be able to develop all 5 guys at the same time. Particularly if you did the same thing the year before. Rosters are only so big. There are only so many minutes available at each position. And sometimes you want a couple of veterans to lead by example and to take some of the pressure off.

Common sense, to be sure -- & despite my yearly exercise of trying to find the 5-7 guys I'd like to pick, it's obvious that you can't change 5-7 guys a year! Let alone have them all be rookies....

At the same time, we did change that many both after 2017-18 & after 2018-19. & we have 6 players on this year's 15-man roster who weren't with us last year. So maybe that's true.

As to developing multiple young players -- which problem would you rather have had in 2008? Developing O.J. Mayo -- 1 guy -- or developing Serge Ibaka, Nic Batum, & DeAndre Jordan?

Anyway, getting a zillion rookies is not my point -- understanding how to value picks is my point.

Where we fundamentally disagree is that your answer to this is Ibaka, Batum & Jordan and not Russ Westbrook who was the 5th pick with a career vorp of 52.2!

But every situation is a case by case basis. You scout. You trust your scouting and you determine whether the situation calls for a trade down or if you need to stay put because the scouting process says you might be drafting a potential star.

[Ruzious]

I also think PIF discounts the complications of trying to develop multiple young players at the same time. You can't trade down from 1 high pick to 5 guys in the 25-30 range and then expect to be able to develop all 5 guys at the same time. Particularly if you did the same thing the year before. Rosters are only so big. There are only so many minutes available at each position. And sometimes you want a couple of veterans to lead by example and to take some of the pressure off.

Common sense, to be sure -- & despite my yearly exercise of trying to find the 5-7 guys I'd like to pick, it's obvious that you can't change 5-7 guys a year! Let alone have them all be rookies....

At the same time, we did change that many both after 2017-18 & after 2018-19. & we have 6 players on this year's 15-man roster who weren't with us last year. So maybe that's true.

As to developing multiple young players -- which problem would you rather have had in 2008? Developing O.J. Mayo -- 1 guy -- or developing Serge Ibaka, Nic Batum, & DeAndre Jordan?

Anyway, getting a zillion rookies is not my point -- understanding how to value picks is my point.

Where we fundamentally disagree is that your answer to this is Ibaka, Batum & Jordan and not Russ Westbrook who was the 5th pick with a career vorp of 52.2!

But every situation is a case by case basis. You scout. You trust your scouting and you determine whether the situation calls for a trade down or if you need to stay put because the scouting process says you might be drafting a potential star.

That's what I try to emphasize; the one size fits all approach doesn't work - every draft is different. And you need to use a combination of scouting and stats - not one or the other. The most important thing to do is get the players you want - whether it's trading down, trading up, or tradin all around. I think there's a song in there. If you can maneuver around and get extra picks while still getting your targets - so much the better.

Dallas has 1 famous trade up and one famous trade down. They traded down in 1998 and still got Dirk Nowitzki. They traded up in 2018 for Luca Doncic.

[NatP4]

I think PIF discounts trying to develop multiple young players under Scott Brooks. Good luck with that

[gambitx777]

I think baging on ryan anderson is not a good place to go. The dude didn't know get hurt but he went though a tramatic experience that could break a man's sperit and even his will to live. What that dude went through not every one is made too go through these days so, I think the rapid decline he had wasn't all his fault.

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[payitforward]

Btw, Brook Lopez has had a better career than Ryan Anderson.

Fine... I don't agree, but what difference does it make, really? so, that means I should say that one -- not none -- of the 15 guys I listed who were taken before Anderson had a better career than him? No problem.

But, just for clarity... you aren't saying that Brook Lopez has been better than Serge Ibaka, are you?

[payitforward]

There are some common sense moves I would make going forward assuming we do keep Beal and go all in on Masai. Bertans will eventually play up his trade value, then we move him to Boston or some other team for a late 1st. We move Ish for a 2nd round pick, and we take back a multi year bad contract in exchange for Lopez and his expiring deal for a 2nd round pick.

We package both 2nds+late 1st to move up to the 15-20 range to take someone like Jared Butler or Franz Wagner. Butler would give us a NBA ready PG, Wagner gives us a NBA ready PF.

I'm on board with trading Bertans for a late 1st if possible.

I don't think anyone is giving us a 2nd to rent Ish Smith for a half season. Rentals are worth something if they're playoff role players, but Ish is not.

And I don't think there are any teams in such dire need of shedding 2021-22 money that they will pay for us to take on a small contract.

Unfortunately, the "trade Davis for a late R1 pick" tour bus has already been here & departed. It doesn't matter whether he returns to last year's level of play, he now comes with a $64m anchor around his neck. Nobody's giving a R1 pick for him.

&, as nate points out, nobody is trading anything for Ish, & getting a pick for Lopez is very unlikely as well.

How great it would have been to have had that late R1 pick & 2 extra R2 picks this year, right Nat? Why... if we'd managed that, we could have made the clever move you suggest.

That way, we'd have gotten Cole Anthony -- instead of being stuck wasting those picks on Payton Pritchard, Xavier Tillman & Tre Jones instead.

What a great idea!

[payitforward]

Agreed -- but a little nitpick on your last point: we do know that his contract is not below market value. That's true by definition, since in a free market nothing is sold at below market value.

We don't know, however, that his contract isn't above market value -- given that no one else competed to sign him. In fact, that's a pretty good indication that it is above market value.

Does anybody really "compete" to sign anyone? It's not like it's a cattle auction.

I think it's a pretty good bet that Shepard and Bertans' agent had a pretty good idea what a fair market price was.

They probably also knew what other teams were interested in signing Davis if the Wizards did lowball him.

Here's the definition of "free market" from the OED: "an economic system in which prices are determined by unrestricted competition between privately owned businesses."

But, you're right -- those grapes were probably sour anyway.

[Ruzious]

Btw, Brook Lopez has had a better career than Ryan Anderson.

Fine... I don't agree, but what difference does it make, really? so, that means I should say that one -- not none -- of the 15 guys I listed who were taken before Anderson had a better career than him? No problem.

But, just for clarity... you aren't saying that Brook Lopez has been better than Serge Ibaka, are you?

Just trying to be my usual helpful self. You are correct on Ibaka.

[payitforward]

...getting a zillion rookies is not my point -- understanding how to value picks is my point.

Where we fundamentally disagree is that your answer to this is Ibaka, Batum & Jordan and not Russ Westbrook who was the 5th pick with a career vorp of 52.2!

I don't argue for argument's sake, dat, & I don't have any stupid ideas either -- which doesn't mean I'm incapable of being wrong! I'm wrong about players -- in fact, I bet I'm wrong about players more often about than you are.

Thus, I hope you understand me when I now say that once again you've misunderstood my point. You, not I, are wrong about this. & Russell Westbrook (who went #4 not #5, btw) makes my point rather than disproving it!

You will notice that he has been a better player than the guy taken above him at #3.
Notice as well that he has been a better player than the guy taken above him at #2.
Finally, be conscious as well that he has been better than the guy taken above him at #1.

Thus, as I say, a higher pick doesn't necessarily get you a better player. The 3 picks higher than #4 where Russ went did not get a better player than he is (or even as good a player, for that matter).

That's simple & true. & the force of it is strengthened by looking at more & more draft data. You are correct that it is tiresome to have to repeat this demonstration over & over, so I won't pick yet another draft at random & demonstrate it all over again.

But... why is this? Why doesn't a higher pick pretty regularly get you a better player? There are 2 core reasons: 1) FOs simply can't do a good enough job of determining the right sequence -- plus, a couple of mistakes will throw everything out of whack, & 2) prospects are moving targets -- it would be absolutely impossible to know in advance how they are going to develop &/or the impact of chance factors on their futures.

Those two facts are enough to create -- pretty much every year -- the results I noted in 2008. There are a few years which count as exceptions, naturally. But, to tell the truth, even those exceptions are caused by chance not by the skill of NBA GMs & scouts.

Those are the facts. You may not like them, but they are the facts all the same. Still, when you write...

...every situation is a case by case basis. You scout. You trust your scouting and you determine whether the situation calls for a trade down or if you need to stay put because the scouting process says you might be drafting a potential star.

...no one could argue with any of that!

It's just that with all these activities, you will still do as well as... as GMs do -- which we can see from the data I supplied.

& that's why it's a mistake to over-value a higher pick position. Period.

[payitforward]

Btw, Brook Lopez has had a better career than Ryan Anderson.

Fine... I don't agree, but what difference does it make, really? so, that means I should say that one -- not none -- of the 15 guys I listed who were taken before Anderson had a better career than him? No problem.

But, just for clarity... you aren't saying that Brook Lopez has been better than Serge Ibaka, are you?

Just trying to be my usual helpful self. You are correct on Ibaka.

I appreciate it!

[gambitx777]

I like lonzo wish we could get him.
Hmmmmmmm what trade are their to make the team better no including wild westbrook **** and beal blow up trades?

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[pcbothwel]

I like lonzo wish we could get him.
Hmmmmmmm what trade are their to make the team better no including wild westbrook **** and beal blow up trades?

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Problem is simple for us:
1) We cant trade any 1st with the way the 2023 draft pick is protected
2) We cant take on salary this year as we are barely under the tax line
3) We cant add salary next year due to the same reason

Assuming Russ, Beal, Bertans, Bryant, Rui, Deni, and Brown are not moved.... we have very little room for anything.