Official Trade Thread -- Part XL

[Dat2U]

The least painful Westbrook trade I could possibly see would be something like this:

Westbrook + Hachimura for Ariza and Al Horford.

The only question here is whether they like Hachimura enough to deal with the fit issues Russ brings to the table. The answer is probably not.

But going through such desperate lengths to sniff the 8th seed would be silly. Personally, I just don't care to watch Brad play here anymore because he's such a crutch for our young developing players. I want to see Brown Jr, Deni, and Rui forced into creating their own shots and developing their skills. I'm over the Brad show.

I would do that in a heartbeat but OKC is smarter than that.

[nate33]

The Wizards are 3-3 in games without Westbrook.
The Wizards are 2-12 in games Westbrook played.

-The Wizards are 5-7 when Beal had 4 or more assists.
They are 0-7 in games when Beal had less than 4 assists.

-They are 4-4 in games when Beal had 2 or less turnovers.
They are 1-11 when Beal had 3 or more turnovers.

-When Beal had 20-25 FGAs the Wizards are 5-5.
Beal w 26+ FGAs the Wizards are 0-7; BB w <20 FGAs 0-2

One other stat that stands out to me is that the Wizards are 0-7 in games when Hachimura doesn't play, and 5-7 with him. They're 4-2 when he plays over 28 minutes. Go figure.

[JAR69]

I continue to think the best return we will get for Beal is in a three-way deal in which we get some draft picks and player assets from one team, then trade those assets to another team for more draft picks. I'm pretty much done looking for deals in which there is a player centerpiece. The only players who fit the bill either aren't really centerpieces (Herro) or are flawed in a way to make them unpalatable or a bad fit (Simmons).

For instance, the deal in which we send Beal to MIA, Herro goes to GSW, and we get the MIN pick, some picks from MIA, and Achiuwa.

So here’s a somewhat insane idea. I’m calling it the “Wiz Trade Thread Fever Nightmare Reunion in Houston.”

Basic structure:
Beal to HOU
Oladipo to MIA or NYK
Garbage (mostly) plus picks haul to WAS

There are several ways to do this and room to dicker on pick and player value. But here is one version.

Beal ($28.7 m) to HOU
Oladipo ($21 m) to MIA
Meyers + Bradley + Achiuwa ($18 m), and Exum ($9.6 m) to WAS.

Plus to WAS, from HOU: 2021 POR pick (protected), 2022 BRK pick (unprotected), 2023 WAS pick returned, 2024 BRK pick (unprotected), 2025 BRK pick swap. And from MIA: 2025 MIA FRP (unprotected, will need to remove protection on 2023 pick sent to OKC).

Works in the trade checker post-March 7. Additional minor players might need to be added for salary and/or team needs purposes (Neto to HOU, Wagner to MIA, etc.).

Houston gets Beal and gets to keep some of the Harden haul (2026 BRK pick + 2021, 2023, and 2027 BRK picks swaps + 2022 MIL pick (unprotected). They can look at it as trading Westbrook/Harden for Wall/Beal plus two picks and three swaps. MIA gets Oladipo to push for the playoffs, plus Bird rights on him for the offseason.

WAS gets, in this version, 5 picks, 1 pick swap, and Achiuwa. The 5 picks have varying value, but at least the far out BRK pick and WAS's own pick are fairly likely to be decent. The BRK swap is also likely to be decent. And, there is room to ask for more. For instance, we could insist on the 2026 BRK pick or the 2027 BRK swap from HOU, or from MIA their 2027 pick and/or a 2024 or 2026 pick swap. Maybe also put Duncan Robinson in play.

Yes, this would mean most of HOU's lineup would consist of player WAS either had or this board wanted for the Wizards (Wall, Beal, Wood, Cousins, House). That would suck, but it's too late to look backward.

Second option:

Beal ($28.7 m) to HOU
Oladipo ($21 m) to NYK
Exum ($9.6 m) + some combination of unwanted NYK players to WAS (I'm not clear on how much NYK are under the cap at this point after the Rose trade and the trade checker hasn't caught up, but I'm confident they have enough junk (Ntilikina, Burks, Knox, Rivers) to make it work)

Plus to WAS, from HOU: 2021 POR pick (protected), 2022 BRK pick (unprotected), 2023 WAS pick returned, 2024 BRK pick (unprotected), 2025 BRK pick swap. And from NYK: 2021 DAL pick, 2023 DAL pick.

Here, WAS gets 6 picks and 1 swap. The 2021 DAL pick is, at the moment, a lottery picks, and at worst is likely to be mid-round. With again room to ask for more - more from HOU, NYK's own future picks, etc. The incentives for HOU and NYK are the same as in the prior option.

[nate33]

I don't see Houston as a player for Beal, they're not good enough to win with him. If Oladipo's expiring contract is enough to get Achiuwa and a 1st from Miami, I think Houston would just make that trade and leave us out of it.

Houston is giving up an insane amount of picks to upgrade from Oladipo to Beal. Sure, it's an improvement, but not worth 6 picks and a swap.

[JAR69]

I don't see Houston as a player for Beal, they're not good enough to win with him. If Oladipo's expiring contract is enough to get Achiuwa and a 1st from Miami, I think Houston would just make that trade and leave us out of it.

Houston is giving up an insane amount of picks to upgrade from Oladipo to Beal. Sure, it's an improvement, but not worth 6 picks and a swap.

Houston is giving up 4 picks (including 2 protected ones and a bad one) and a swap for the upgrade. And Beal is a pretty significant upgrade. Just on counting stats, Beal is averaging almost 14 more point per game that Oladipo. Beal is also signed for another year.

This all depends on Houston wanting to be good in the next 2 years and maybe more. If all they want to do is strip it down and rebuild, then they can cut us out. But they would be giving up Wall's and Cousins' apparent revivals, Wood's emergence, etc. And, also, the top scorer in the NBA.

[JAR69]

I don't see Houston as a player for Beal, they're not good enough to win with him. If Oladipo's expiring contract is enough to get Achiuwa and a 1st from Miami, I think Houston would just make that trade and leave us out of it.

Houston is giving up an insane amount of picks to upgrade from Oladipo to Beal. Sure, it's an improvement, but not worth 6 picks and a swap.

Houston is giving up 4 picks (including 2 protected ones and a bad one) and a swap for the upgrade. And Beal is a pretty significant upgrade. Just on counting stats, Beal is averaging almost 14 more point per game that Oladipo. Beal is also signed for another year.

This all depends on Houston wanting to be good in the next 2 years and maybe more. If all they want to do is strip it down and rebuild, then they can cut us out. But they would be giving up Wall's and Cousins' apparent revivals, Wood's emergence, etc. And, also, the top scorer in the NBA.

Also, I know it is an unlikely and fanciful idea, but I'm looking high and low to maximize value.

[nate33]

The bottom line is that we're not trading Beal until the offseason if there's any truth to this Ujiri stuff. For now, we need to focus on trading Bertans and maybe seeing if we can get any value out of an Ish or Neto trade.

[payitforward]

Humor is a good thing, guys! Glad to see it!

I remain convinced (tho, admittedly, w/o conclusive evidence) that Ted Leonsis is 100% responsible for this colossal mess. Actively responsible, I mean. I.e. that he gave Tommy Sheppard orders that (predictably, almost inevitably) created it.

1. I feel certain that Ted ordered Tommy to draft Rui Hachimura -- because of his obvious marketing/financial payback.

2. I feel certain that Ted ordered Tommy to trade John for Russ. Give up a R1 pick? "No problem; just do it."

3. I feel certain that Ted ordered Tommy to pick up veterans this off-season, so that we could be "respectable."

Let's look for a moment at each of those moves to see how well we might have done with some different decisions:

1. 2019 draft. Suppose we'd traded down as I suggested -- moving our #9 pick to Boston for their #20 & #22 picks.

a. We use #20 on the guy whose name I don't bring up.
b. We pick Thybulle w/ the #22, then trade those rights to him to Philly (as Boston did) for the #24 & #33 picks.
c. We pick Keldon Johnson at #24 (he was my target).
d. We trade the #33 to the Kings for the 2020 R2 draft pick they own that turns out to be #35.

2. At the trade deadline, we move Davis Bertans to Boston for the #26 pick in the 2020 draft.

Keldon Johnson spends most of the year in the G League; our record is more or less the same as it was w/ Rui.

3. Last off season

a. We sign Christian Wood as a FA.
b. We sign Raul Neto -- nice to have a veteran guard....
c. Assuming we still have the #9 pick, we select Denis Avdija. If we've fallen a couple of spots, & he's gone -- we take either Tyrese Haliburton or Devin Vassell.
d. With the #26 pick (from Boston for Bertans), we select Payton Pritchard.
e. With the #35 pick (from the Kings), we select Xavier Tillman.
f. With the #37 pick, well, since we did NOT take Admiral in the '19 draft, we don't have to trade away the pick to get rid of him. But, I tell you what, let's trade it anyway. Let's trade it to Sac'to for their #52 pick this year & a R2 pick in 2022. A no-brainer for them, obviously. Then with the #52 pick, we select one of the plethora of promising guards there: let's say... Mason Jones.

Now... there's no 20-20 hindsight involved here -- these are all moves I & others here called for at the time & guys I said I was hoping we could get. The trades all mimic trades that actually happened; nor are any of them one-sided. if one or another of these moves was not available -- there were good moves available as well.

Still on the basis of the preceding, where are we? Well, from our current 17-player roster, we would still have Beal, Smith, Neto, Mathews, Avdija, Brown, Bonga, Bryant, Len & Wagner -- 10 guys.

Not on the team would be Westbrook, Bertans, Lopez, Gill, Hachimura, Robinson & Winston -- 7 guys with a total salary of @$73m this year.

Instead we would have Wall, Mr. Unnameable, Keldon Johnson, Christian Wood, Payton Pritchard, Xavier Tillman, & Mason Jones -- 7 guys with a total salary of @$63m.

PG: John Wall/Ish Smith/Raul Neto
SG: Bradley Beal/Garrison Mathews/Payton Pritchard/Mason Jones
SF: Deni Avdija/Troy Brown/Keldon Johnson
PF: Xavier Tillman/Mr. Unnameable/Isaac Bonga
C: Thomas Bryant/Christian Wood/Moe Wagner/
Mathews & Jones are our 2-way players


To me at least, this is the way you move to rebuild your team! Now, why can a tyro like me see this, but the Wizards FO can't execute something of the kind? Only one possible answer: Ted Leonsis.

[Ruzious]

It's been said a million times that the Wiz gave up a 1st in the Wall trade. Meanwhile, because of the protection on that pick, they most likely are not going to give up a 1st from that trade. So, please stop saying we gave up a 1st in that trade. Thank you.

[DCZards]

PIF, must you ALWAYS put us through this tortuous exercise of coulda, woulda, shoulda? It's hindsight/history now...can we please move on.

[gambitx777]

That's my point. This team.was built to win and isn't those teams are tanking teams. Rus would fit better on this teams that he would here with beal they have not expectations of winning and picks are of little value to okc right now what they need is money on the books or player assets. I think the idea that it would take 3 firsts to trade russ is silly and stupid. He's still putting up numbers and I think he's a bad for for this team as constructed . I think on a team like ok where they are trading scraps to get him maybe it would take thomas bryant added in to get it done or something. Detroit maybe less maybe again bryant in exchange for blake. I think there are trade out there that don't cost us much and work. I don't think russ is as bad as people say just because we arnt winning him and beal don't fit. That's more tommy's fault that russ

I don't buy that, kind of like max Kellerman going off that carson wentz has negative trade value. I don't buy it he's worth something to someone. Just like russ I think the thunder or pistons could really benefit from him. Thunder with their situation and history and pistons with getting griffon off the books and getting a player who isn't tottaly shot.

On the trade board, Westbrook was voted as the worst contract in the league. I think that's closer to reality than him having neutral value. He's 32 years old, paid over $40 million a year, and isn't close to being worth it. By definition, that would be negative value.

Sent from my SM-G965U1 using RealGM mobile app

Bringing up Wentz doesn't make any sense at all. Wentz isn't 32 or well past his physical prime. Im not sure what you've seen to suggest Westbrook is not totally washed but let's assume the rest of the league has access to the games too. The Thunder & Pistons are rebuilding and playing young guys. Where does Russ fit in there? He can't run an offense. He just dominates the rock. Our young guys are just standbys when on the floor with him. You think any team is just anxious to take that on?

Anyone can be traded but that cost would be so prohibitive now that it would be foolish to do so. At this point he looks like a tank commander more than anything else.

Sent from my SM-G965U1 using RealGM mobile app

[pcbothwel]

It's been said a million times that the Wiz gave up a 1st in the Wall trade. Meanwhile, because of the protection on that pick, they most likely are not going to give up a 1st from that trade. So, please stop saying we gave up a 1st in that trade. Thank you.

Ummm. Unless you have the most pessimistic views of the Wiz over the next decade then it will be a 1st, just not in 2023.
We were bad last year, Terrible this year, and you assume we are a bottom third team in the league for the next 5 years?

Again, if we rebuild and move Beal this summer, then we better be in the playoffs in 3-4 years with the sorta talent we would have, That would mean we trade a 2024/2025 pick.
If we pull in Masai and Beal stays and we add Mobley/Suggs to this squad along with a new coach, then we probably make the playoffs in 2023. Again, Im assuming Prime Beal with two more years of Rui, Deni, Bryant, and Suggs/Mobley.

Best guess... Its pick 15 in 2025... but who knows.

[Ruzious]

It's been said a million times that the Wiz gave up a 1st in the Wall trade. Meanwhile, because of the protection on that pick, they most likely are not going to give up a 1st from that trade. So, please stop saying we gave up a 1st in that trade. Thank you.

Ummm. Unless you have the most pessimistic views of the Wiz over the next decade then it will be a 1st, just not in 2023.
We were bad last year, Terrible this year, and you assume we are a bottom third team in the league for the next 5 years?

Again, if we rebuild and move Beal this summer, then we better be in the playoffs in 3-4 years with the sorta talent we would have, That would mean we trade a 2024/2025 pick.
If we pull in Masai and Beal stays and we add Mobley/Suggs to this squad along with a new coach, then we probably make the playoffs in 2023. Again, Im assuming Prime Beal with two more years of Rui, Deni, Bryant, and Suggs/Mobley.

Best guess... Its pick 15 in 2025... but who knows.

As someone who posts here frequently would say - That's a lot of ifs. I have some hope, but I think it's mostly not realistic.

[nate33]

It's been said a million times that the Wiz gave up a 1st in the Wall trade. Meanwhile, because of the protection on that pick, they most likely are not going to give up a 1st from that trade. So, please stop saying we gave up a 1st in that trade. Thank you.

Ummm. Unless you have the most pessimistic views of the Wiz over the next decade then it will be a 1st, just not in 2023.
We were bad last year, Terrible this year, and you assume we are a bottom third team in the league for the next 5 years?

Again, if we rebuild and move Beal this summer, then we better be in the playoffs in 3-4 years with the sorta talent we would have, That would mean we trade a 2024/2025 pick.
If we pull in Masai and Beal stays and we add Mobley/Suggs to this squad along with a new coach, then we probably make the playoffs in 2023. Again, Im assuming Prime Beal with two more years of Rui, Deni, Bryant, and Suggs/Mobley.

Best guess... Its pick 15 in 2025... but who knows.

The comforting thing isn't that we won't be sacrificing a pick. It's that at least the pick we sacrifice is likely to be a fairly late one.

[payitforward]

...here’s a somewhat insane idea.... Basic structure:
Beal to HOU...

I don't see Houston as a player for Beal...

Me neither. But, still, let's give Jar some credit here... that is by far the most entertaining Beal trade idea yet!

Wall & Beal reunite in Houston! LOL!! I love it!

[NatP4]

Quickley+Randle+NY picks (currently 9&10)

Top 3: Jalen Suggs
9: Franz Wagner
10: Jared Butler

[pcbothwel]

Quickley+Randle+NY picks (currently 9&10)

Top 3: Jalen Suggs
9: Franz Wagner
10: Jared Butler

Ehhh.
No picks in the out years?
Why does NY give up Randle to get Beal? Seems like an offset to a degree.
I think the Mavs improve as they get healthy and Beal makes NY better as well. Those picks are currently 1 game away from being 17/18 instead of 9/10...No way in hell I take that.

In the offseason I would do it if those picks stay in the top 12.
They can keep Randle. Send us Quickley and Knox, plus the picks, and another pick in 2023
Include a third team to take Knox for a 2nd.
- This creates a 32M exception for us that could expedite the rebuild by taking on salary and getting another asset. I.E. Wiggins, Love, Blake, Hield, Harris, etc.

Again, not saying I would do it, but just outlining a better framework.

[nate33]

Thought experiment: Of the teams likely to land a top 3 lotto pick, which of them could conceivably trade it for Beal in the offseason?

Detroit - No. They're doing a long rebuild.
Minnesota - Maybe, if they believe that they'd start winning with Beal (and would therefore retain him).
Orlando - Yes. Beal, Vucevic and Isaac is a great foundation.
Chicago - Probably not. Beal is redundant with Lavine.
New Orleans - Yes. Would be a no-brainer.
Cleveland - No. They're set in the backcourt with Sexton, Garland and Okoro
OKC - No. They're doing a long rebuild.
New York - Maybe.

So I count 3 or 4 out of the 8 teams likely to be in the top of the lottery who might be willing to trade for Beal with a top 3 pick. I definitely think New Orleans and Orlando would. Minnesota and New York are maybes. It depends if they think they can keep Beal.

The odds are pretty high that at least one of those 4 teams are in the top 3. Ideally, one of those teams AND us are in the top 3.

[JAR69]

...here’s a somewhat insane idea.... Basic structure:
Beal to HOU...

I don't see Houston as a player for Beal...

Me neither. But, still, let's give Jar some credit here... that is by far the most entertaining Beal trade idea yet!

Wall & Beal reunite in Houston! LOL!! I love it!

I'll take what I can get.

I know Houston is a very unlikely destination for Beal (hence the word "insane"). I'm glad you find the idea entertaining - I did, too. (If you like that, could I interest you in a side Davis Bertans for Eric Gordon deal?)

And it isn't even a totally crazy idea for HOU. Not only is Beal a great player on his own, but he and Wall did and should work well together, and HOU has far better supporting pieces than we do now. Even the cost for HOU isn't that much in my opinion (though Nate disagrees) - they could keep about half of the Harden haul.

More broadly, though, what I'm trying to do is explore unlikely possibilities in an effort to get the most out of our one and only real asset. The other options (MIA, GSW, ATL, etc.) are mostly meh - OK value at best. So we (the fans and the front office) need to be creative.

[payitforward]

PIF, must you ALWAYS put us through this tortuous exercise of coulda, woulda, shoulda? It's hindsight/history now...can we please move on.

You are of course correct, Zards. Yet, "those who do not learn from the past are condemned to repeat it," said that great basketball aficionado, Winston Churchill.

Don't you think we've done enough of that?