NBA MVP Discussion 20/21 (Fresh poll ➥ Vote)

[Down3223]

Jokic MVP talk needs to die down now that Nuggets are basically a .500 team. Team record is going to be the decider for guys that are having great seasons.

all facts

[FinnTheHuman]

Jokic MVP talk needs to die down now that Nuggets are basically a .500 team. Team record is going to be the decider for guys that are having great seasons.

It's gonna be a decider if the Nuggets are not a home court playoff team. What Laker fans don't wanna accept is that Jokic should be the MVP if the Nuggets get a top 4 spot in the west, because he is individually having a much better season than Lebron and less so than Embiid.

We've seen what every Lakers fan was saying 10 days ago when Nuggets were top 4, Lebron was still the MVP in their posts despite almost every metric there is pointing to Jokic, because the 1 seed vs 4 seed was the deciding factor in their minds at that point.\

And Nuggets probably will end up a top 4 seed because they're better than anyone outside of Utah and the LA teams, so brace yourselves.

[OriginalRed]

It's definitely Lebron right now. Jokic, Steph, and Luka aren't winning enough games, We already know Giannis won't win 3 in a row, Embiid's probably going to miss too many games. and Kawhi just lost Paul George for awhile so we'll see how the Clippers trend without him.

It'll be interesting to see if Lebron will sit out games near the end of the season to prepare for the playoffs though. We all thought he'd be resting early in the season but to our shock, he has yet to miss a game.

[The Master]

Jokic MVP talk needs to die down now that Nuggets are basically a .500 team. Team record is going to be the decider for guys that are having great seasons.

It's gonna be a decider if the Nuggets are not a home court playoff team. What Laker fans don't wanna accept is that Jokic should be the MVP if the Nuggets get a top 4 spot in the west, because he is individually having a much better season than Lebron and less so than Embiid.

We've seen what every Lakers fan was saying 10 days ago when Nuggets were top 4, Lebron was still the MVP in their posts despite almost every metric there is pointing to Jokic, because the 1 seed vs 4 seed was the deciding factor in their minds at that point.\

And Nuggets probably will end up a top 4 seed because they're better than anyone outside of Utah and the LA teams, so brace yourselves.

1. Suns are 14-9 despite a fact Booker has been awful until recently, I don't think Nuggets are good enough to be placed in front of Phoenix at least right now.
2. There are like two examples past 40 years of a player getting MVP without top3 seed in his conference (Moses and Westbrook).

Jokic has better boxscore production than LeBron, but they are pretty close in advanced metrics: this boxscore production may be decisive if Nuggets go for pace over 50 wins (44-28 plus), if Lakers have like ~10 wins advantage over Nuggets I don't see Jok getting a trophy. They are up 6 already.

[WHITE_HOT_HEAT]

Embiid needs more love. I know he's missed 5 games, but right now he still warrants more votes than LeBron. If he is within 5 games played of LeBron and has a similar production along with RS standing, he will get it IMO. 76'ers dropping in wins also determines this.

[The Master]

Embiid needs more love. I know he's missed 5 games, but right now he still warrants more votes than LeBron. If he is within 5 games played of LeBron and has a similar production along with RS standing, he will get it IMO. 76'ers dropping in wins also determines this.

Embiid won't maintain his current production though, he's been shooting ~60% from midrange and 39% from 3 pointers all season long, it's unsustainable. And yeah, it looks like a safe bet that he will miss even more games considering his past. No one is denying Embiid may be indeed in a lead as for now, but it's understandable why people have some reserve to his MVP chances.

[WHITE_HOT_HEAT]

Embiid needs more love. I know he's missed 5 games, but right now he still warrants more votes than LeBron. If he is within 5 games played of LeBron and has a similar production along with RS standing, he will get it IMO. 76'ers dropping in wins also determines this.

Embiid won't maintain his current production though, he's been shooting ~60% from midrange and 39% from 3 pointers all season long, it's unsustainable. And yeah, it looks like a safe bet that he will miss even more games considering his past. No one is denying Embiid may be indeed in a lead as for now, but it's understandable why people have some reserve to his MVP chances.

I agree with that assessment.

[Duffman100]

Pascal is starting to turn it around a little bit.

[Benedict_Boozer]

Between King James and Embiid - separating from the pack. Will come down to games played, how many will Embiid miss? I think Philly should be able to stay within striking range record wise.

With AD possibly missing time, that does have the potential to help boost Lebron's case as well if he can keep winning games.

[MisterHibachi]

Philly has had the 3rd easiest schedule so far, and has an SRS of 2.80. Not sure how long they can keep the first seed. They're playing a bit above their heads right now.

[Ballerhogger]

Denver barley the 8th seed right now so yes Jokic clearly out of mvp race right now . Still Joel and Lebron

[trickshot]

Pascal is starting to turn it around a little bit.

Not gonna lie. My first and second thought was this post was meant for the gamethread

[Duffman100]

Pascal is starting to turn it around a little bit.

Not gonna lie. My first and second thought was this post was meant for the gamethread

Sure was.... oops.

I mean, ... no, he's an MVP candidate... I stand by that.

[abark]

Kendrick Nunn starting to turn it around

...not meant for game thread

[FinnTheHuman]

Philly has had the 3rd easiest schedule so far, and has an SRS of 2.80. Not sure how long they can keep the first seed. They're playing a bit above their heads right now.

I dunno, SRS doesn’t seem like the greatest stat in a season characterized by many blowouts caused by covid absences.

But that SRS does look pretty bad for a 1st seed.

[rzzzzz]

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/joel-embiid-changed-his-offseason-conditioning-now-hes-playing-like-an-mvp/

[scrabbarista]

Jokic put up

42.5 pts
10.0 rebs
9.0 asts
0.5 stls
1.5 blks
with 0.5 TO's
on .599/.500/1.000 splits

in his last two games, with a 0.0 +/- in games his team lost by an average of 9.0 points.

I don't really feel like that constitutes falling down in the race.

[Cavsfansince84]

Jokic put up

42.5 pts
10.0 rebs
9.0 asts
0.5 stls
1.5 blks
with 0.5 TO's
on .599/.500/1.000 splits

in his last two games, with a 0.0 +/- in games his team lost by an average of 9.0 points.

I don't really feel like that constitutes falling down in the race.

It is when there's absolutely no getting around the fact of how important team record is in voting. It won't be matter of just 2-3 games either in the w/l column. By the time the season is over it will likely be about 8-12 games.

[Dupp]

Gotta be embiid and then lebron at this stage. Everyone else has something going against them.

Embiid just can’t miss too many games. I think one think he’s got going for him is not just the improvement of his own play but the massive turnaround for his team. That counts for a lot.

Jokic put up

42.5 pts
10.0 rebs
9.0 asts
0.5 stls
1.5 blks
with 0.5 TO's
on .599/.500/1.000 splits

in his last two games, with a 0.0 +/- in games his team lost by an average of 9.0 points.

I don't really feel like that constitutes falling down in the race.

0-2 and overall record of .500 ( or one game off) is a big factor unfortunately.

[scrabbarista]

As of the afternoon of February 9th, with movement in the last week.

----------------------------------------------------

1. 20.5 - Jokic, DEN +1
2. 19.9 - Leonard, LAC -1
3. 19.2 - James, LAL +2
4. 19.1 - Embiid, PHI
5. 18.5 - Conley, UTA -2

6. 16.7 - Middleton, MIL +2
7. 16.7 - Gobert, UTA -1
8. 16.3 - George, LAC +1
9. 15.9 - Antetokounmpo, MIL (n/a)
10. 15.5 - Davis, LAL

-----------------------------------------------------

As predicted last week, Conley drops two spots despite going 4-0, showing that the formula is starting to normalize.

The formula represents James' great week in an accurate way, instead of slipping into the recency bias (not to speak of other biases) that is human nature.

I also predicted last week that Leonard would drop slightly, which is what he did this week.

Antetokounmpo makes his first appearance after averaging 27/12/5 with 2 blocks per game as Milwaukee went 4-0 with an average MoV of 19 points. Notably, he hit over 74% of his free throws over this stretch after starting the season at 59%.

Durant drops out of the top ten.