Bucks News, Trade Ideas, Transactions - No Politics

[JimmyTheKid]

Predictions for Jrue signing an extension during the season? I believe he's eligible on 2/26 and the Bucks will try to take care of that before making any trades because knowing he wants to stay, if he does, would make it a lot easier to plan for the future.

Numbers are down and he'll be 31 in June. The trade was unsettling to begin with but it will be a nightmare if he doesn't extend eventually, and preferably this season. I've been assuming all along that he'll get a max contract from someone and might try to get a 5-year max from the Bucks, but I've allowed myself to entertain the hope that he will settle for 4/$120m or something like that. He's not like KD where he can afford to gamble on his health and assume the same money will be there this summer if he gets hurt. He's not really a floor general and he seems to keep his efficiency up by being very choosy about his attempts. Great defender, but that doesn't always get paid in free agency.

Damning stuff right there.

[Ron Swanson]

I'm optimistic that there's a reasonable extension on the table (4-yrs $120 million does sound about right), but with the now lack of top-tier free agents in the 2021 class, my worry is that there are still teams out there (Knicks, Heat, Hornets, Spurs) that will have all this cap room and no one to spend it on. Think the smart money was always on the Bucks overpaying to keep Jrue (they already overpaid to acquire him), but man, I really hope we aren't paying the guy +$40 million annually in his age-34 and 35 seasons.

[jakecronus8]

There’s no scenario with Jrue where I’m not wincing. Either he’s gone or as Ron said, we are paying a 35 year old point guard 40+ million annually in order to keep him.

[WRau1]

Giannis is the only guy between himself, Middleton and Jrue that I would worry about paying into his 30s.

[JimmyTheKid]

After swinging the trade for Jrue Holiday, the checklist became:

1) Hope the player acquired was significant enough in Giannis' eyes to put pen to supermax. Check.
2) Extend Jrue Holiday
3) Give yourself a 5-year window to legitimately contend for titles. This is obviously contingent on #1 and #2

Its really this simple. If the Bucks don't win a title, the Jrue trade and extension will look bad. If they do win a title, the Jrue trade and extension will look brilliant. I guess just I don't understand the day-to-day nervousness about a 2027 draft pick or how much the team will pay Jrue Holiday in five years. If those things are serious concerns right now, why even follow sports? How is it fun with that kind of mindset?

[Ruzious]

Giannis is the only guy between himself, Middleton and Jrue that I would worry about paying into his 30s.

Why even worry about Giannis considering he's 3 years younger that Midds and 4 years younger than Jrue.

[fan230]

Numbers are down and he'll be 31 in June.

To be fair numbers are down on volume and efficiency is through the roof.

What is the value of the metric “Volume times Efficiency “? Seems to me that it is important to see if that is up or down. Anyone knows the numbers for this?

[LuessiT]

Giannis is the only guy between himself, Middleton and Jrue that I would worry about paying into his 30s.

Why even worry about Giannis considering he's 3 years younger that Midds and 4 years younger than Jrue.

He's not. His point is Giannis relies much more on athleticism than the other two thus in theory he's a bigger risk at slowing down in his high 30's than the other two who mostly rely on skill (and in Jrues case on strength too). At least that's how I understood him.

[WRau1]

Giannis is the only guy between himself, Middleton and Jrue that I would worry about paying into his 30s.

Why even worry about Giannis considering he's 3 years younger that Midds and 4 years younger than Jrue.

He's not. His point is Giannis relies much more on athleticism than the other two thus in theory he's a bigger risk at slowing down in his high 30's than the other two who mostly rely on skill (and in Jrues case on strength too). At least that's how I understood him.

Bingo bango bongo.

[coolhandluke121]

Numbers are down and he'll be 31 in June.

To be fair numbers are down on volume and efficiency is through the roof.

What is the value of the metric “Volume times Efficiency “? Seems to me that it is important to see if that is up or down. Anyone knows the numbers for this?

Context matters a lot too. Giannis and Khris are both incredible scorers in their own way, which makes it easier for Jrue to pick on weak defenders, get all the way to the basket without much help coming, and/or get a lot of open looks. It reminds me of how Brogdon was able to take advantage, but I'm not sure the open market pays max money for that combination of volume and efficiency in this context - especially for a player like Jrue who has proven to be rather inefficient when asked to do more in past seasons.

The question is whether he will be valued enough as a two-player to get a full max deal. I personally think perimeter defense still gets underpaid on the open market, but it's not as bad as it used to be.

[coolhandluke121]

Predictions for Jrue signing an extension during the season? I believe he's eligible on 2/26 and the Bucks will try to take care of that before making any trades because knowing he wants to stay, if he does, would make it a lot easier to plan for the future.

Numbers are down and he'll be 31 in June. The trade was unsettling to begin with but it will be a nightmare if he doesn't extend eventually, and preferably this season. I've been assuming all along that he'll get a max contract from someone and might try to get a 5-year max from the Bucks, but I've allowed myself to entertain the hope that he will settle for 4/$120m or something like that. He's not like KD where he can afford to gamble on his health and assume the same money will be there this summer if he gets hurt. He's not really a floor general and he seems to keep his efficiency up by being very choosy about his attempts. Great defender, but that doesn't always get paid in free agency.

Damning stuff right there.

I don't know if you're being sarcastic but I was clearly referring to volume. He's a complementary scorer on low volume right now, much like Brogdon in 2019, and that often doesn't get paid on the open market the same way a less efficient 20 ppg guy does, even if you think it should.

[SickMother]

Numbers are down and he'll be 31 in June.

To be fair numbers are down on volume and efficiency is through the roof.

What is the value of the metric “Volume times Efficiency “? Seems to me that it is important to see if that is up or down. Anyone knows the numbers for this?

I believe PER attempts to capture volume x efficiency to some extent. Jrue was at 18.1 career with NO versus 20.0 so far with the the Bucks.

Obviously there are more wins to share here than with the Pels, but Jrue has a .191 WS/48 so far this season compared to 0.98 career with NO.

By VORP, Jrue is at 1.1 in 747 minutes this season. With NO he posted 13.7 in 13,913 minutes, or about 0.74 VORP per 747 minutes.

With samples so divergent in size its probably best to apply similarly scaled caveats, but so far the eye test & numbers seem to support the idea that Jrue has increased his efficiency by more than he has decreased his usage resulting in greater overall production.

[paulpressey25]

I'm just hoping the Bucks had a handshake deal in place for a 3/$100 extension. If his agents want to play the market, they can gamble that he'll get a much bigger offer come summer.

[PG Graveyard]

I'm just hoping the Bucks had a handshake deal in place for a 3/$100 extension. If his agents want to play the market, they can gamble that he'll get a much bigger offer come summer.

Are there any restrictions on the extension Jrue can sign or is more advantageous for him to wait until the offseason? In this FA market he is almost assuredly getting the max from someone.

[slos]

Jrue is 100% getting a max offer in the FA market. I mean Dipo is rumored that he can get one. I just hope he gets a friendly discount like Khris did. Giannis had one too in his first big contract.

[Ron Swanson]

Gordon Hayward got the 4-yr $120 million contract after still working his way back from injury and coming off a less impressive season than what Jrue is currently having. Yeah, you pray that he loves the situation here enough for him to only take the Hayward contract. If he decides to play the market in the offseason, things could get ugly.

[WRau1]

If Jrue turns down an extension (which I doubt he will) then I'd hope the Bucks try to clean up our cap at the deadline. There is a number of serviceable guys on expiring deals that are reportedly available, I'd hope we try to get ahold of a few in exchange for anything not Middleton/Giannis.

[emunney]

I mean, you pay him whatever, who cares at this point.

[coolhandluke121]

I'm just hoping the Bucks had a handshake deal in place for a 3/$100 extension. If his agents want to play the market, they can gamble that he'll get a much bigger offer come summer.

Are there any restrictions on the extension Jrue can sign or is more advantageous for him to wait until the offseason? In this FA market he is almost assuredly getting the max from someone.

I've been asking the same thing and haven't gotten a reply. I'm not aware of any restrictions, but as they say, you don't know what you don't know.

I do know that Khris had to wait until summer to opt out because the 4th year of his 5/$70m was a relatively low salary and his maximum percentage raise would have left him far short of what he was clearly going to make if he waited. Waiting for summer and officially opting out lifted the artificial limit on how much his raise could be, so he was only limited by the Bird Rights max. That shouldn't apply to Jrue though, because he doesn't have an unusually low salary like Khris had in 2018-19. The maximum raise he's allowed when extending this early is probably right on par with a max contract anyway.

That said, I feel like there might be a limit on getting the 5-year deal if he doesn't wait until summer, but I could be imagining that. It just seems weird to be able to opt out now and start a new contract extension next fall. And if he can't exercise his opt-out clause now, then I believe he can't sign a 5-year extension now because that would leave him under contract for 6.5 years from now, which I'm pretty sure is illegal. If I'm not mistaken, that's why Giannis had to wait until last summer to sign his extension because 6 years into the future is the maximum for guaranteed money.

Basically, if he signs an extension now, does his new salary start next year or in 2022-23? Because he is technically still under contract for 21-22 until he opts out, and I'm not sure he can opt out during the season to sign an extension. It's possible the extension would be tacked on to next year's $27m option. Coon's CBA FAQs site hasn't worked for a while so I don't know a convenient place to check.

[coolhandluke121]

I mean, you pay him whatever, who cares at this point.

I agree that they should if they have to, just wondering if maybe they won't have to. Would be nice to maintain some flexibility and maybe even have the full MLE available once in a while.