2021 Draft thread. Woo! 15th pick here we come! Hoo. Ray.

[payitforward]

When projecting players you have to see attributes that forecast success versus those that dont. If we've learned anything about the game today, its that high IQ, defensive versatility, high motor, and projectable shooting almost always lead to success....

Was there a time when those attributes didn't lead to success?

[pcbothwel]

When projecting players you have to see attributes that forecast success versus those that dont. If we've learned anything about the game today, its that high IQ, defensive versatility, high motor, and projectable shooting almost always lead to success....

Was there a time when those attributes didn't lead to success?

Lol. No but there was a time when people focused on flash and counting stats over valuing efficiency/possessions. Cocky, low IQ chuckers were given too much of a pass before analytics became available. "Athletic" was another word for jumping high. Hand eye coordination, lateral quickness, change of pace were not viewed in the same bucket.

[NatP4]

Didn’t even notice, but Ayo Dosunmu put up another ridiculous performance. 31 points 6 assists 3 rebounds and 4 steals on 23 shots

[nate33]

Wagner is better prospect than Kuminga&Green in my opinion.

The best thing about basketball is that we get to see who's right and who's wrong. My GF went to Michigan so I've caught several of there games. Wagner has shown nothing that convinces me he will be able to get to the hoop consistently. Wagner's best case scenario is a 3 and D and he's shooting 33% from 3. His FT% is an amazing 85% which suggests that there is potential there, but at best you're looking at an above-average 3-point shooter who will struggle to create and make plays consistently against NBA defenders. Wagner's most likely scenario is like nba journeyman. If he develops into a good 3-point shooter, he might stick as a solid rotational piece but there is nothing to suggest any capacity for high-end ability. So ultimately, all your post is basically saying is that Kuminga and Green will be busts. Again there's nothing wrong with that, but at the very least you should explain why.

When projecting players you have to see attributes that forecast success versus those that dont. If we've learned anything about the game today, its that high IQ, defensive versatility, high motor, and projectable shooting almost always lead to success.

You point out his issues with creating and you are not wrong. That is due to a mediocre first step and ball handling (The latter of which can be improved. See Beal, Bradley).
But even with issues he still shows to be a very high level rebounder, defender on both the perimeter and interior that gets STOCKS, and AST:TOV ratio. Thats motor and IQ.
Go watch that Maryland game and the assist. Yes, its just 4 and that would stand out unless you actually watch tape. None of the 4 were routine passes where the other player just made a shot. All required vision, patience, and precision.

He needs to work on ball handling and speeding up his shot, but the IQ, defense, motor, and size are going to carry him.
In a way, he reminds me of Deni and two of those guys at the 3/4 make our team much better. High IQ, activity, rebounding, valuing possessions, defending multiple possessions and staying aware of other players is how you win games.

I dont think Kuminga & Green will bust. Im scared of Greens archetype, but he seems to have the work ethic, athleticism, and aggression to be a solid player. I just worry think he is more Jeremy Lamb/Jr Smith, while Wagner is Gordon Hayward/High Motor Nic Batum.

Even if Wagner is at the higher end of the projected spectrum - a Haywood/Batum type player, that's basically Deni Avdija, and we already have one of those. Indeed, we have a whole team full of guys who we acquired because we thought their basketball IQ and playmaking outweighed their relatively sub-par athleticism for their position.

At this point, I'd rather err in the other direction. If we have to choose between two relatively similar overall prospects, but one is the better athlete and the other is the better bball IQ guy, I'd lean toward the athlete. That's the Toronto strategy. Get good athletes with work ethic, get them to defend while only having to do specific offensive tasks, and then build on that base.

[payitforward]

When projecting players you have to see attributes that forecast success versus those that dont. If we've learned anything about the game today, its that high IQ, defensive versatility, high motor, and projectable shooting almost always lead to success....

Was there a time when those attributes didn't lead to success?

Lol. No but there was a time when people focused on flash and counting stats over valuing efficiency/possessions. Cocky, low IQ chuckers were given too much of a pass before analytics became available. "Athletic" was another word for jumping high. Hand eye coordination, lateral quickness, change of pace were not viewed in the same bucket.

For sure, although that has nothing to do with "counting stats" -- except in the sense that people weren't counting the right stats.

With the athletic qualities you mention -- "hand eye coordination, lateral quickness, change of pace" & "jumping high" too, for that matter-- you can be an outstanding player or a terrible player. That's why we don't measure how good a player is using those metrics

Of course, if you don't have those qualities, you are substantially limited -- no doubt about it! So, we do use those metrics to qualify who can play in the league at all. I'm a lot older than you, but even when I was a kid, even in HS basketball, slow 5'8" guards got very little floor time -- which I found annoying, of course.

Which is why the site you linked to -- https://stathead.com/tiny/GppbH -- doesn't give us the results of hand-eye coordination tests, but we still use it to compare players, right?

[payitforward]

...At this point, ...If we have to choose between two relatively similar overall prospects, but one is the better athlete and the other is the better bball IQ guy, I'd lean toward the athlete. That's the Toronto strategy. Get good athletes with work ethic, get them to defend while only having to do specific offensive tasks, and then build on that base.

This is interesting.... Can you say a little more about this as "the Toronto strategy," please?

I.e., is Siakam your "archetype" for this? If so, who are the other notable examples?

[nate33]

...At this point, ...If we have to choose between two relatively similar overall prospects, but one is the better athlete and the other is the better bball IQ guy, I'd lean toward the athlete. That's the Toronto strategy. Get good athletes with work ethic, get them to defend while only having to do specific offensive tasks, and then build on that base.

This is interesting.... Can you say a little more about this as "the Toronto strategy," please?

I.e., is Siakam your "archetype" for this? If so, who are the other notable examples?

OG Anunoby
Jacob Poltl
Delon Wright
Quincy Acy
Norman Powell
Chris Boucher

It doesn't always work.
Lucas Nogueira didn't pan out

[DCZards]

When projecting players you have to see attributes that forecast success versus those that dont. If we've learned anything about the game today, its that high IQ, defensive versatility, high motor, and projectable shooting almost always lead to success.

You point out his issues with creating and you are not wrong. That is due to a mediocre first step and ball handling (The latter of which can be improved. See Beal, Bradley).
But even with issues he still shows to be a very high level rebounder, defender on both the perimeter and interior that gets STOCKS, and AST:TOV ratio. Thats motor and IQ.
Go watch that Maryland game and the assist. Yes, its just 4 and that would stand out unless you actually watch tape. None of the 4 were routine passes where the other player just made a shot. All required vision, patience, and precision.

He needs to work on ball handling and speeding up his shot, but the IQ, defense, motor, and size are going to carry him.
In a way, he reminds me of Deni and two of those guys at the 3/4 make our team much better. High IQ, activity, rebounding, valuing possessions, defending multiple possessions and staying aware of other players is how you win games.

I dont think Kuminga & Green will bust. Im scared of Greens archetype, but he seems to have the work ethic, athleticism, and aggression to be a solid player. I just worry think he is more Jeremy Lamb/Jr Smith, while Wagner is Gordon Hayward/High Motor Nic Batum.

I was with you until you mentioned teaming Deni with a similar player--like Wagner. There's a lot to like about Deni--his playmaking, his IQ, his defense, his potential. But if there's one concern I have about him it's his lack of athleticism and quickness. It would be a mistake to team Deni with a player who has those same shortcomings.

I'm sure that given what you say about Wagner's skillset that he has a solid chance of being a good NBA player. But the Zards need the athleticism of a Kuminga more than they need a player similar to Deni.

[NatP4]

Isaiah Jackson should be ranked much higher than I’ve been seeing. His overall numbers aren’t that impressive, but he’s been one of the best players in the country for the last two months after having some normal initial freshman struggles.

Since Kentucky hit conference play:

16 points 11.7 rebounds 1.7 steals and 5.8 blocks per 40 minutes. 59.5% TS, 71% from the free throw line. He’s also cut the turnover&foul rate in half during this stretch.

[pcbothwel]

Was there a time when those attributes didn't lead to success?

Lol. No but there was a time when people focused on flash and counting stats over valuing efficiency/possessions. Cocky, low IQ chuckers were given too much of a pass before analytics became available. "Athletic" was another word for jumping high. Hand eye coordination, lateral quickness, change of pace were not viewed in the same bucket.

For sure, although that has nothing to do with "counting stats" -- except in the sense that people weren't counting the right stats.

With the athletic qualities you mention -- "hand eye coordination, lateral quickness, change of pace" & "jumping high" too, for that matter-- you can be an outstanding player or a terrible player. That's why we don't measure how good a player is using those metrics

Of course, if you don't have those qualities, you are substantially limited -- no doubt about it! So, we do use those metrics to qualify who can play in the league at all. I'm a lot older than you, but even when I was a kid, even in HS basketball, slow 5'8" guards got very little floor time -- which I found annoying, of course.

Which is why the site you linked to -- https://stathead.com/tiny/GppbH -- doesn't give us the results of hand-eye coordination tests, but we still use it to compare players, right?

PIF... again, you get bogged down into the black and white. The historical facts. But we are projecting 18-20 y/o kids, not recounting what occurred on a date or sequence of dates. (Again, you do a good job of this when breaking down what player(s) have done).

Projection: Jaylen Brown is a great example. On paper, he was a terrible prospect as he had all the red flags:
1) Pedigree: AAU overhype that was old for his class
2) IQ/Possessions: Too little assist, too many turnovers (2:3)
3) Defense: Too few STOCKS, too many fouls
4) Scoring: Poor efficiency from EVERYWHERE

That is the four horseman of Bust... But now we are talking about trading the top scorer in the NBA and beloved person in Beal for him...and we would be happy. There is Nothing, and I mean NOTHING, that you could point to that occurred over the course of his 34 games (~1,000 minutes) of college basketball that would lend you to believe Brown would be a starter in this league.

Athleticism: Luka/Harden is another example but in a different way. Both players were viewed as big/strong and skilled/savvy, which allowed them to beat up on their peers at a young age. The problem was that they were viewed as slow and poor vertically. But teams/scouts/GMs/Posters/whatever undervalued short area quickness and deceleration. We have all (mostly), grown to see the error.

You act like this is common knowledge, yet the NBA combine still has a bench press measurement. As someone who has spent the last 20 years in the power lifting/sports exercise environment, I find this laughable and so does anyone worth their salt. But they still do it. i think maybe you underrate the dogma that exist in that world.

[Ruzious]

Isaiah Jackson should be ranked much higher than I’ve been seeing. His overall numbers aren’t that impressive, but he’s been one of the best players in the country for the last two months after having some normal initial freshman struggles.

Since Kentucky hit conference play:

16 points 11.7 rebounds 1.7 steals and 5.8 blocks per 40 minutes. 59.5% TS, 71% from the free throw line. He’s also cut the turnover&foul rate in half during this stretch.

Good find. And while he's so raw on offense, it seems like there's the beginnings of some offensive skills. Also has the frame to get much stronger. A year in the G League could do wonders for him.

[pcbothwel]

Isaiah Jackson should be ranked much higher than I’ve been seeing. His overall numbers aren’t that impressive, but he’s been one of the best players in the country for the last two months after having some normal initial freshman struggles.

Since Kentucky hit conference play:

16 points 11.7 rebounds 1.7 steals and 5.8 blocks per 40 minutes. 59.5% TS, 71% from the free throw line. He’s also cut the turnover&foul rate in half during this stretch.

Good find. And while he's so raw on offense, it seems like there's the beginnings of some offensive skills. Also has the frame to get much stronger. A year in the G League could do wonders for him.

Agreed. I love his energy and I think his shooting has some upside. I worry about his touch around the rim and his overall awareness/IQ, but projects as a solid energy big that could be more.

[pcbothwel]

...At this point, ...If we have to choose between two relatively similar overall prospects, but one is the better athlete and the other is the better bball IQ guy, I'd lean toward the athlete. That's the Toronto strategy. Get good athletes with work ethic, get them to defend while only having to do specific offensive tasks, and then build on that base.

This is interesting.... Can you say a little more about this as "the Toronto strategy," please?

I.e., is Siakam your "archetype" for this? If so, who are the other notable examples?

OG Anunoby
Jacob Poltl
Delon Wright
Quincy Acy
Norman Powell
Chris Boucher

It doesn't always work.
Lucas Nogueira didn't pan out

Sure...but dont take those guys high.
My pick for the "He'll be much better in the NBA with more space" award... Scottie Lewis
I would LOVE to get a 2nd and snag him. He's a better shooting, more athletic Thybulle. He's another shot at Zhaire Smith...lol

Plug and play defender from day 1. 6'5, 6'10.5 wing, 8'8 standing reach... His combination of raw explosiveness and smoothness is VERY rare. Like Dwayne Wade rare.
Just watch him glide around on defense. Its like he's on ice skates. That block at 6:18

Watch on YouTube

[Ruzious]

This is interesting.... Can you say a little more about this as "the Toronto strategy," please?

I.e., is Siakam your "archetype" for this? If so, who are the other notable examples?

OG Anunoby
Jacob Poltl
Delon Wright
Quincy Acy
Norman Powell
Chris Boucher

It doesn't always work.
Lucas Nogueira didn't pan out

Sure...but dont take those guys high.
My pick for the "He'll be much better in the NBA with more space" award... Scottie Lewis
I would LOVE to get a 2nd and snag him. He's a better shooting, more athletic Thybulle. He's another shot at Zhaire Smith...lol

Plug and play defender from day 1. 6'5, 6'10.5 wing, 8'8 standing reach... His combination of raw explosiveness and smoothness is VERY rare. Like Dwayne Wade rare.
Just watch him glide around on defense. Its like he's on ice skates. That block at 6:18

Watch on YouTube

Yeah, Scottie Lewis is the best defensive wing in college basketball.

[nate33]

Sure...but dont take those guys high.
My pick for the "He'll be much better in the NBA with more space" award... Scottie Lewis
I would LOVE to get a 2nd and snag him. He's a better shooting, more athletic Thybulle. He's another shot at Zhaire Smith...lol

Plug and play defender from day 1. 6'5, 6'10.5 wing, 8'8 standing reach... His combination of raw explosiveness and smoothness is VERY rare. Like Dwayne Wade rare.
Just watch him glide around on defense. Its like he's on ice skates. That block at 6:18

Spoiler:

Watch on YouTube

Yeah, Scottie Lewis is the best defensive wing in college basketball.

Wow. That dude has bowlegged hip bend in spades! He is ALWAYS in a defensive crouch, ready to dart in any direction. He looks like he LOVES to play defense! Very high energy.

That's the type of guy to target with a 2nd round pick. A guy whose floor is still someone useful - a guy you can trot out there for 10 minutes a night to harass the opposition's best wing. And his shooting stroke looks good enough that he could develop into a reliable 37% 3-point shooter if he works at it. If that happens, then he's a starting 3&D forward.

[pcbothwel]

Sure...but dont take those guys high.
My pick for the "He'll be much better in the NBA with more space" award... Scottie Lewis
I would LOVE to get a 2nd and snag him. He's a better shooting, more athletic Thybulle. He's another shot at Zhaire Smith...lol

Plug and play defender from day 1. 6'5, 6'10.5 wing, 8'8 standing reach... His combination of raw explosiveness and smoothness is VERY rare. Like Dwayne Wade rare.
Just watch him glide around on defense. Its like he's on ice skates. That block at 6:18

Spoiler:

Watch on YouTube

Yeah, Scottie Lewis is the best defensive wing in college basketball.

Wow. That dude has bowlegged hip bend in spades! He is ALWAYS in a defensive crouch, ready to dart in any direction. He looks like he LOVES to play defense! Very high energy.

That's the type of guy to target with a 2nd round pick. A guy whose floor is still someone useful - a guy you can trot out there for 10 minutes a night to harass the opposition's best wing. And his shooting stroke looks good enough that he could develop into a reliable 37% 3-point shooter if he works at it. If that happens, then he's a starting 3&D forward.

Obviously having a guy that can lockdown a teams best perimeter player is great, but I think Lewis does a bit more. He's like Sean Taylor Free safety where his length and quickness allow him to cover a ton of ground that allows him to cover his man while also cheating a bit to be a help defender.
He can shoot the 3, cut to the basket, and live at the FT line.
With minor improvements he's Gerald Wallace, with Major ones he's Jimmy Butler.

[NatP4]

The 20-40 range will have a number of really good prospects. I love Duarte from Oregon, he’s old, but a flat out stud. Joel Ayayi is obviously a really good player and safe bet to be a solid NBA player. Ayo Dosunmu has been dominant for a few months now. Miles McBride is flying way under the radar. The C position has surprising depth with Charles Bassey/Neemius Queta/Isaiah Jackson. Garza is a fun wildcard. Jay Huff might turn into a really good role player.

Tons of ball handlers, tons of bigs. Very few quality wing prospects. Buying stock in Franz Wagner, Corey Kispert, and Chris Duarte.

[NatP4]

Love: Jared Butler, Jalen Suggs, Evan Mobley, Chris Duarte, Franz Wagner, Jaden Springer

Like: Cunningham, Dosunmu, Queta, Kispert, McBride, Mitchell, Kuminga, Ayayi, Bassey, Huff, Jackson.

Need to watch more: Jalen Green, Scottie Barnes, Sharife Cooper, Kai Jones

Don’t like: Jalen Johnson, Zhaire Williams, Keon Johnson.

[NatP4]

Wow. The g league ignite team is getting absolutely shredded. Right now they are 2-22 from 3. Jalen Green is -36 so far, Kuminga is -33. Both of them have been pretty bad. Kuminga has been active and able to get to the basket and score. Nix has been pretty bad also.

Cassius Winston has looked really good for Erie. +24, 9 points 5 assists in 23 minutes.

[NatP4]

Mobley had his best performance so far tonight. Will post video when I find it.

22–9-7-3 on 11 shots.


Springer was really good again. 16-5-3 on 8 shots. Business as usual

Isaiah Jackson continues to rise for me. 15 points, 9 rebounds, 5 total shots, in only 20 minutes.

Queta put up 32&10 on 21 shots in just 32 minutes for Utah State.