2021 Draft thread. Woo! 15th pick here we come! Hoo. Ray.

[pcbothwel]

Wow. The g league ignite team is getting absolutely shredded. Right now they are 2-22 from 3. Jalen Green is -36 so far, Kuminga is -33. Both of them have been pretty bad. Kuminga has been active and able to get to the basket and score. Nix has been pretty bad also.

Cassius Winston has looked really good for Erie. +24, 9 points 5 assists in 23 minutes.

Kuminga is in my top 4 right now. His size, skill level, activity, versatility, and athleticism at his age are pretty rare.
I need to see more defensively from both. But there’s time.

[Ruzious]

Kuninga's stats after 5 games aren't particularly good - especially his scoring efficiency stats - where Jalen Green has a clear advantage over him. But 5 games is a small sample size. I expect both will show improvement.

[pcbothwel]

Kuninga's stats after 5 games aren't particularly good - especially his scoring efficiency stats - where Jalen Green has a clear advantage over him. But 5 games is a small sample size. I expect both will show improvement.

ehhh. You could say the same for Deni when we drafted him. Scoring efficiency isnt something I get too hung up on for 18/19 y/o guys. I need to see activity, awareness, and skill.
Watch his game from yesterday. despite the missed 3's he looks really comfortable handling the ball, pushing the pace, attacking the basket, post game, etc. We can work with that.
I like Green actually, I just dont see the generational player he was billed as over the previous 2 years. Similar to last draft, I see plenty of guys that will be available around 12-14 that are as good as those 5-8. To me, If we cant get Mobley then Im not too hung up on getting Springer, Boukright, or Wagner latter in the lotto.

[Ruzious]

Kuninga's stats after 5 games aren't particularly good - especially his scoring efficiency stats - where Jalen Green has a clear advantage over him. But 5 games is a small sample size. I expect both will show improvement.

ehhh. You could say the same for Deni when we drafted him. Scoring efficiency isnt something I get too hung up on for 18/19 y/o guys. I need to see activity, awareness, and skill.
Watch his game from yesterday. despite the missed 3's he looks really comfortable handling the ball, pushing the pace, attacking the basket, post game, etc. We can work with that.
I like Green actually, I just dont see the generational player he was billed as over the previous 2 years. Similar to last draft, I see plenty of guys that will be available around 12-14 that are as good as those 5-8. To me, If we cant get Mobley then Im not too hung up on getting Springer, Boukright, or Wagner latter in the lotto.

I'm in between on it. I think it's an issue - but not the end of the world - similar to what it is with Avdija - who needs to significantly improve. But again, it's a small sample size, and I expect all of them will improve.

[NatP4]

I bet we end up picking around 8-12 again. It’s the wizard way.
probably looking at this group of players:

Moody
Johnson
Williams
Springer
Wagner
Kispert
Butler

Would be pretty thrilled with Butler, Wagner or Springer. Acquiring early 2nd round picks could be huge for us. NO&OKC will be moving some of those picks. I expect one of Duarte, Bassey, Queta, or Jackson to be there.

[prime1time]

Focusing on efficiency and +/- in glorified G-League games is the surest way to make sure you never draft an impact player. A team of players with the caliber of Franz Wagner isn't going anywhere. Draft players with good to elite skills and then develop them into good basketball players. People talk about Franz Wagner possibly being a Gordon Hayward or a high energy Nicolas Batum. How much worse is Boston now that Hayward left? How good is Charlotte now that they have Hayward? Hayward has made one all-star game and has had 2 seasons with a per above 20. His career Per is 17.6.

This just shows the disconnect that exists on the board. Jeremy Lamb is held up as a bad player. He has a career PER of 15.9 and this season he has a PER of 17.8. He's shooting 50% from 3, 50%+ from the field and 92.3% from the ft line. This is why I talk about people not basing their opinons on actual analysis. The last 5 years Jeremy Lamb has been an effective player. Ulike Hayward, who's on a terrible contract, Lamb is getting paid 3 years 31 million. Yet, we trot out Jeremy Lamb as a failure and Nic Batum as a success. Lamb has been an objectively better player than Batum. And for as bad as JR Smith has been, the man has been a knockdown shooter and a major contributor on multiple championship teams.

Jeremy Lamb and JR Smith are considered the worst case scenario for Jalen Green's, yet that is comparable to best case/ideal scenarios of Franz Wagner. Not only is it bizarre to compare the two players, it's also illogical. Green is an elite player by any standard of measurement.

[pcbothwel]

ughh. I didnt say that Lamb is a bad player. And I didnt say Green is a bad prospect.
Im giving you my analysis on how I project the players and their roles/archetypes. And Wagner in the late lotto is better value than Green in the top 5 IMHO.

You can point to PER all you want (A terrible, chucker oriented rollup BTW), but that doesnt mean anything. Hayward in his prime was far better than Jeremy Lamb and its not close. If you want rest on a 16 game sample size in his 9th year as an analysis, then that's your prerogative.

Batum: I said Wagner profiles as a motivated/high motor Batum. Do you realize how good that is? Do you realize how good Batum was before he got rich, fat, and happy?
Batum had a 5 year period (21-25) that was collectively as good as anything Lamb has done in any year of his career. Batum was a high level perimeter defender that averaged a per36 of 14/6/3.5 on a TS of 58% and BPM of 2.6
That version of Batum drafted at #12 is better than the Best version of Lamb at #5.

[SUPERBALLMAN]

I bet we end up picking around 8-12 again. It’s the wizard way.
probably looking at this group of players:

Moody
Johnson
Williams
Springer
Wagner
Kispert
Butler

Would be pretty thrilled with Butler, Wagner or Springer. Acquiring early 2nd round picks could be huge for us. NO&OKC will be moving some of those picks. I expect one of Duarte, Bassey, Queta, or Jackson to be there.

Top end of that range I'm hoping for Scottie Barnes!

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NBA DRAFT ROOM:

NBA DRAFT SCOUTING REPORT
SF – Florida State – HT: 6-9 – WT: 227 – WING: 7-2 – Fr
BORN: 7/31/01

Draft Notes
Barnes is one of those players who can do it all on the basketball court. He’s listed as a small forward but he’s got the size to defend in the paint and the skills to initiate the offense. He’s a competitor who gives great effort and plays the game the right way. Essentially he’s a 6-8 point guard who can guard 4 positions. Sign me up for that!

Physical profile: length, strength, positional size and powerful build
Competes on every possession and makes a lot of hustle plays
Has a great feel for the game and flashes point guard skills
Has an advanced understanding of the nuances of the game – impressive for such a young player
Gets out in transition well – can fill in the wing or lead the fast break
Has tons of defensive versatility



The low end I'm looking at Isaiah Jackson and Usman Garuba.

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NBA DRAFT ROOM:

NBA DRAFT SCOUTING REPORT
PF – Kentucky – HT: 6-10 1/2 – WT: 206 – WING: 7-2 1/2 – Fr

Draft Notes
Isaiah Jackson is a truly exceptional athlete. With legit power forward size and excellent length Jackson is as nimble as a wing, super fluid on the floor and explosive with his moves to the rim. He shows flashes of small forward skills, handling the ball in the open court and showing an improved dribble-drive game. The sky’s the limit.

A big time athlete with length and potential. Still learning to put it all together but is already a great rebounder and interior defender.

Watch on YouTube

NBA DRAFT ROOM:

Draft Notes
PF – Real Madrid (Spain) – HT: 6-9 – WT: 230 – WING: 7-2 – Int.02 – Garuba is known as a rock solid defender and rebounder with good offensive decision making. He’s starting to hit the 3-ball, which could catapult him into the top 10.

Usman is a powerful, mobile and graceful athlete who has awesome length with a +6 wingspan and a nice NBA frame.

He’s a high energy guy (think Kenneth Fareid) who runs the floor hard, sets good screens and brings a lot of energy on defense. He’s a smart defender who knows when to leave his feet and how to play with proper position. He plays with good awareness and is a good help defender and weak-side shot blocker.

His current offensive game is mostly dunks, layups and back to the basket moves but he shows promise of a mid range and outside shot.

[Ruzious]

Barnes is good, but I think he almost has to be used like a point forward to be effective - somewhat iike Kyle Anderson. And he really needs to improve his jump shot - also like Anderson has. Obviously a talented passer and has good body control on his drives to the hoop without being a great athlete. More defensive ability that Anderson. And I'd guess he's 6'9 225 rather than the 6'8 210 above.

[NatP4]

Watched Rutgers-Michigan game from start to finish. Wagner was the best player on the floor, impacted the game in multiple different ways. Slides his feet and plays great defense. Moves and is built like a PF, but handles the ball and sets his teamates up, super crafty in the pick and roll as the ball handler. Made a number of great drive and dump off a passes for layups. His 3pt shot looks good, he’s going to be a good shooter at the next level. Super competitive just like Mo.

I think PC is spot on. This is your Batum/Porter/Hayward type of prospect, but more of a PF than a true wing. He does everything well. Not really an elite 1 on 1 player.

[NatP4]

I don’t know, I think we might be sugarcoating things with these g-league prospects. Neither of Kuminga&Green really have much feel for the game. Kuminga just forces everything. His 3pt misses are BAD, like left and right and off the backboard first. Just total bricks, and he launches up an absurd amount. He forces so many drives into double teams and throws some of the most casual Ill advised passes that would make rookie year Kelly Oubre look like Magic Johnson. I have a pretty good sample of games watched now, and his defensive IQ just is not good. He sort of avoids contact and runs all over the place out of control. There’s no controlled sliding of his feet or discipline. Seriously lacking of any kind of discipline in his game.

The physical tools are undeniable with Jalen Green. He’ll hit a smooth stepback jumper, then next possession, iso and put his head down and drive to his right into a triple team and throw up a wild attempt. On defense, he does random things, almost NEVER gets into a stance, has no semblance of team/help defense. He’s also been extremely turnover prone. It’s so easy to watch Green play and imagine a sporadic microwave scorer that is a liability on defense that doesn’t really help a team win all that much. He has a serious hitch in his jumpshot.

Kuminga looks like a typical athletic 5 star recruit that has all the tools, but lacks the basketball IQ and feel for the game to be an actual positive on defense, and really can’t shoot or be a primary ball handler on offense. Pretty sure you could throw 18 year old OG Anunoby in one of these scrimmages and he would look just as impressive.

Nix isn’t even worth talking about at this point.

Right now, I really don’t see much more than a OG Anunoby&Zac Lavine. Nothing to go crazy about. Kuminga certainly is more exciting to me if he can develop into a reliable 3pt shooter and develop some feel for the game.

[SUPERBALLMAN]

Watched Rutgers-Michigan game from start to finish. Wagner was the best player on the floor, impacted the game in multiple different ways. Slides his feet and plays great defense. Moves and is built like a PF, but handles the ball and sets his teamates up, super crafty in the pick and roll as the ball handler. Made a number of great drive and dump off a passes for layups. His 3pt shot looks good, he’s going to be a good shooter at the next level. Super competitive just like Mo.

I think PC is spot on. This is your Batum/Porter/Hayward type of prospect, but more of a PF than a true wing. He does everything well. Not really an elite 1 on 1 player.

I really like Wagner also, but has he decided to stay at Michigan another year? Draft Room has him in next year's 2022 mock.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Jared Butler is the player the Wizards should draft (outside of the top three.)

https://hoopshype.com/2020/05/10/baylor-jared-butler-nba-draft-stock-interview/

When I was in sixth grade, my AAU team was ranked sixth ithe country. The high school I went to, we won three state championships. Two were in basketball and one was in football. During my senior year of high school, our basketball team went 23-0 at one point. I’ve also had success at Baylor. All of my life, no matter where I’ve gone, I’ve always made an impact on winning. I didn’t do it alone – but the personality that I bring, the accountability, the habits – those are the things I bring to the table.

https://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/players/jared-butler-1.html

[Ruzious]

Jared Butler is the player the Wizards should draft (outside of the top three.)

https://hoopshype.com/2020/05/10/baylor-jared-butler-nba-draft-stock-interview/

When I was in sixth grade, my AAU team was ranked sixth ithe country. The high school I went to, we won three state championships. Two were in basketball and one was in football. During my senior year of high school, our basketball team went 23-0 at one point. I’ve also had success at Baylor. All of my life, no matter where I’ve gone, I’ve always made an impact on winning. I didn’t do it alone – but the personality that I bring, the accountability, the habits – those are the things I bring to the table.

https://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/players/jared-butler-1.html

And if we don't get Butler, I want Davion Mitchell.

[Ruzious]

Here's an Ujiri trade for the offseason: Beal and Rui to Toronto for Siakam, Powell, and Flynn. It's a reload trade for Ujiri - as opposed to a rebuild trade. Siakam gives the Wiz their first 2-way forward in years. Powell is one of the NBA's most underrated players - same age as Beal - a tremendous 3 point shooter - outstanding scoring efficiency and defends very well - has earned a chance to be a high usage starter. Flynn is tearing it up in the G League.

[pcbothwel]

Here's an Ujiri trade for the offseason: Beal and Rui to Toronto for Siakam, Powell, and Flynn. It's a reload trade for Ujiri - as opposed to a rebuild trade. Siakam gives the Wiz their first 2-way forward in years. Powell is one of the NBA's most underrated players - same age as Beal - a tremendous 3 point shooter - outstanding scoring efficiency and defends very well - has earned a chance to be a high usage starter. Flynn is tearing it up in the G League.

Nice... So does Toronto include pick swaps along with the 3 unprotected 1st, or just the the 3 1st?

[NatP4]

Jared Butler is the player the Wizards should draft (outside of the top three.)

https://hoopshype.com/2020/05/10/baylor-jared-butler-nba-draft-stock-interview/

When I was in sixth grade, my AAU team was ranked sixth ithe country. The high school I went to, we won three state championships. Two were in basketball and one was in football. During my senior year of high school, our basketball team went 23-0 at one point. I’ve also had success at Baylor. All of my life, no matter where I’ve gone, I’ve always made an impact on winning. I didn’t do it alone – but the personality that I bring, the accountability, the habits – those are the things I bring to the table.

https://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/players/jared-butler-1.html

Awesome interview. Dude is a winner. Multi sport athlete with older brothers.

When it’s all said and done, I think Mobley, Suggs, Butler, and Wagner end up the 4 best players from this draft.

[pcbothwel]

I don’t know, I think we might be sugarcoating things with these g-league prospects. Neither of Kuminga&Green really have much feel for the game. Kuminga just forces everything. His 3pt misses are BAD, like left and right and off the backboard first. Just total bricks, and he launches up an absurd amount. He forces so many drives into double teams and throws some of the most casual Ill advised passes that would make rookie year Kelly Oubre look like Magic Johnson. I have a pretty good sample of games watched now, and his defensive IQ just is not good. He sort of avoids contact and runs all over the place out of control. There’s no controlled sliding of his feet or discipline. Seriously lacking of any kind of discipline in his game.

The physical tools are undeniable with Jalen Green. He’ll hit a smooth stepback jumper, then next possession, iso and put his head down and drive to his right into a triple team and throw up a wild attempt. On defense, he does random things, almost NEVER gets into a stance, has no semblance of team/help defense. He’s also been extremely turnover prone. It’s so easy to watch Green play and imagine a sporadic microwave scorer that is a liability on defense that doesn’t really help a team win all that much. He has a serious hitch in his jumpshot.

Kuminga looks like a typical athletic 5 star recruit that has all the tools, but lacks the basketball IQ and feel for the game to be an actual positive on defense, and really can’t shoot or be a primary ball handler on offense. Pretty sure you could throw 18 year old OG Anunoby in one of these scrimmages and he would look just as impressive.

Nix isn’t even worth talking about at this point.

Right now, I really don’t see much more than a OG Anunoby&Zac Lavine. Nothing to go crazy about. Kuminga certainly is more exciting to me if he can develop into a reliable 3pt shooter and develop some feel for the game.

Im sorry, but you cant look at Kuminga and see OG. Kuminga's ball handling, agility, pace, vision, etc. are far more like Paul George.
Im starting to LOVE Kuminga. If you watch his HS type to now you cant help but be excited about his progression. He worried me as a bully ball type player in HS, but his skill set grows by the week. He SPRINTS back on defense every time and loves physicality as hes playing against grown men trying to pay rent. I think he ends up a top 3 player in this class behind only Mobley and 1 of the 3 guards who breakout as stars(Suggs, Cade, or Green).

Green is tantalizing. That first step is generational and when he locks in on D its scary. Im just worried about the consistency and I dont like his floor as much as Kuminga.

[Ruzious]

Here's an Ujiri trade for the offseason: Beal and Rui to Toronto for Siakam, Powell, and Flynn. It's a reload trade for Ujiri - as opposed to a rebuild trade. Siakam gives the Wiz their first 2-way forward in years. Powell is one of the NBA's most underrated players - same age as Beal - a tremendous 3 point shooter - outstanding scoring efficiency and defends very well - has earned a chance to be a high usage starter. Flynn is tearing it up in the G League.

Nice... So does Toronto include pick swaps along with the 3 unprotected 1st, or just the the 3 1st?

Ouch. Well done.

[NatP4]

I’m not sure how you can possibly see Paul George. Nowhere near the same feel for the game or off the dribble ability. It’s a small sample size but Kuminga is 7-32 from 3 through 6 games. 18 turnovers and 19 assists. PG was a 45% 3pt shooter as a freshman at Fresno State.
Kuminga looks like a lower usage wing that’s being asked to play with the ball and create off the dribble when it’s not really his game. He’s been a trainwreck in 4/6 of the games. Really hurt his team by forcing everything.

If he starts to knock down all these 3s and becomes more disciplined on defense, and cuts down on the turnovers, he would definitely be in that top 3 conversation. We’ll see how the rest of the season plays out. All of the physical tools are there to be a good defender if the game slows down for him, and the offensive package is impressive if the 3 falls, but he’s shooting 20% and 63% on free throws.