Lauri Markkanen Discussion Thread

[sco]

If Lauri gets to free agency, some team is going to offer him 4/$80m or more. If the Bulls have absolutely no intention of paying him that much, they need to trade him at the deadline for whatever they can get.

Ideally, the team can combine assets and get a player of value but the more likely scenario is a well protected 1st round pick.

Here is the capsace situation:
https://www.spotrac.com/nba/cap/2021/

Here are the free agents:
https://hoopshype.com/lists/2021-nba-free-agent-rankings/

How much do you think they should be willing to pay?

Here's how I see the market from last offseason:
- Perennial Allstars in their prime = MAX
- Remaining top 10 starters at their position= $20M/yr
- Next 10 = $15M/yr
- Next 10 = $10M/yr

There are adjustments made based on age and injury history, etc.

I'd say that so far Lauri has played at the $20M level, but the season is far from over and if he continues to show a propensity for injury going forward this season, I could see teams knocking that number down to $15M.

IMO, I'd rather save that money and either use it to absorb a bad contract (like Griffin) and a good young player.

[coldfish]

If Lauri gets to free agency, some team is going to offer him 4/$80m or more. If the Bulls have absolutely no intention of paying him that much, they need to trade him at the deadline for whatever they can get.

Ideally, the team can combine assets and get a player of value but the more likely scenario is a well protected 1st round pick.

Here is the capsace situation:
https://www.spotrac.com/nba/cap/2021/

Here are the free agents:
https://hoopshype.com/lists/2021-nba-free-agent-rankings/

How much do you think they should be willing to pay?

For me, the question for contracts is about tradeability. If Lauri continues to struggle with health and consistency, at what point is he still tradeable. As Jerry has said, don't forget about contract lengths. Length of deal is just as important as size.

Some deals that would be tradeable in my opinion:
- 3/60, third year team option
- 4/60 guaranteed, declining deal like 16.5, 15.5, 14.5, 13.5
- 4/72, 4th year team option.

I think that Lauri would get better offers than this in free agency and as a result, he probably should get dealt.

[CaPiTanAK]

Lauri will probably get a 4 year 80 mil contract in the open market. That’s an offer that we should match consider Lauri age. This decision imo is very similar to Zach Lavine ordeal.

[sco]

Lauri will probably get a 4 year 80 mil contract in the open market. That’s an offer that we should match consider Lauri age. This decision imo is very similar to Zach Lavine ordeal.

It's not that it isn't a "fair" deal, IMO, the opportunity cost to keep him in not having that space as part of a future opportunity to bring in a 2nd or 3rd MAX star is too high - coupled with my fear that Lauri will be about as durable at Otto, making him untradeable down the road.

[madvillian]

Lauri will probably get a 4 year 80 mil contract in the open market. That’s an offer that we should match consider Lauri age. This decision imo is very similar to Zach Lavine ordeal.

It's not that it isn't a "fair" deal, IMO, the opportunity cost to keep him in not having that space as part of a future opportunity to bring in a 2nd or 3rd MAX star is too high - coupled with my fear that Lauri will be about as durable at Otto, making him untradeable down the road.

The durability thing really worries me. Especially if Lauri continues to be more effective in stretches as a small ball 5. He's going to get banged around. I dunno it's a **** hard decision. I'd lean towards trying to trade him because I just don't think it would be that hard to find a similar impact guy if Chicago does find another star to pair with Zach. You'd have plenty of guys looking to come and play as a 3rd or 4th banana at PF.

[CaPiTanAK]

Lauri will probably get a 4 year 80 mil contract in the open market. That’s an offer that we should match consider Lauri age. This decision imo is very similar to Zach Lavine ordeal.

It's not that it isn't a "fair" deal, IMO, the opportunity cost to keep him in not having that space as part of a future opportunity to bring in a 2nd or 3rd MAX star is too high - coupled with my fear that Lauri will be about as durable at Otto, making him untradeable down the road.

There is no reason for us not to have space for a second max cat. There is no such thing as a third max cat. In most scenarios, it’s likely an overpaid flawed player. In an era with increasing salary cap space, 20 mil per year in 2-3 years from now will be equivalent to 15-16K now, which is pretty much the going rate for a high end player.

I personally think that Lauri will be resigned by us at the market set rate, which will end up being a steal for us in the long run.

[PaKii94]

Lauri will probably get a 4 year 80 mil contract in the open market. That’s an offer that we should match consider Lauri age. This decision imo is very similar to Zach Lavine ordeal.

It's not that it isn't a "fair" deal, IMO, the opportunity cost to keep him in not having that space as part of a future opportunity to bring in a 2nd or 3rd MAX star is too high - coupled with my fear that Lauri will be about as durable at Otto, making him untradeable down the road.

There is no reason for us not to have space for a second max cat. There is no such thing as a third max cat. In most scenarios, it’s likely an overpaid flawed player. In an era with increasing salary cap space, 20 mil per year in 2-3 years from now will be equivalent to 15-16K now, which is pretty much the going rate for a high end player.

I personally think that Lauri will be resigned by us at the market set rate, which will end up being a steal for us in the long run.

If Lauri stays healthy I think whatever he signs for will be a steal. Unfortunately I don't know if I can trust him to stay healthy...

[Louri]

I think biggest question is - Do AK and BD believe that Lauri can become even better player in the future under them. Can they develop him to be even better? Do they see even more potential in him, or do they think that Lauri is at his peak now? They have spent so short time together off-season and Lauri had really bad Covid summer (4 months without touching the ball, just home workouts etc.).

I think it would have been no-brainer to sign him 4/20 next summer but.. this latest shoulder injury was a bit dark cloud. I still think they have seen enough. Not sure tho if they can match all offers from the other teams.

[sco]

I think biggest question is - Do AK and BD believe that Lauri can become even better player in the future under them. Can they develop him to be even better? Do they see even more potential in him, or do they think that Lauri is at his peak now? They have spent so short time together off-season and Lauri had really bad Covid summer (4 months without touching the ball, just home workouts etc.).

I think it would have been no-brainer to sign him 4/20 next summer but.. this latest shoulder injury was a bit dark cloud. I still think they have seen enough. Not sure tho if they can match all offers from the other teams.

If there's good news it's that they are both seeing the good and the bad from Lauri this season to make an informed decision.

[Chi town]

He needs to get back. They said 2-4 weeks and he almost at 2 weeks

[ZOMG]

He needs to get back. They said 2-4 weeks and he almost at 2 weeks

Well, he's always tried to play hurt for this team, so I'm sure he'll get back the second they let him.

[kodo]

I think biggest question is - Do AK and BD believe that Lauri can become even better player in the future under them. Can they develop him to be even better? Do they see even more potential in him, or do they think that Lauri is at his peak now? They have spent so short time together off-season and Lauri had really bad Covid summer (4 months without touching the ball, just home workouts etc.).

I think it would have been no-brainer to sign him 4/20 next summer but.. this latest shoulder injury was a bit dark cloud. I still think they have seen enough. Not sure tho if they can match all offers from the other teams.

I mean offensively he's averaging 19 ppg on 65% TS, realistically I don't know how that can get much better as a 2nd option stretch 4. If he gets any more efficient, he's now better than Steph Curry...and let's be realistic about expectations.

John Collins is averaging 18 ppg on 63% TS, and he believes (as does most of the NBA) he'll get a max contract from someone. If Collins = max, hard to argue Lauri with better #s = $12M-$15M.

The biggest thing stopping Lauri from getting a truly big contract is his injury history. If he's healthy for the remainder of the season, he'll probably get a bigger offer than most Bulls fans will want to pay for him.

[the ultimates]

The Bulls miss Lauri's three-point shooting but the offensive flow hasn't been hampered with him out. The team is still generating good three-point looks. They aren't missing his defense or rebounding. Both Collins and Lauri have durability issues. Lauri is having a good year before the injury but I just think this is a contract year bump and not what he'll be going forward. You can find three-point shooting for less than 20 million per year.

[Louri]

I think biggest question is - Do AK and BD believe that Lauri can become even better player in the future under them. Can they develop him to be even better? Do they see even more potential in him, or do they think that Lauri is at his peak now? They have spent so short time together off-season and Lauri had really bad Covid summer (4 months without touching the ball, just home workouts etc.).

I think it would have been no-brainer to sign him 4/20 next summer but.. this latest shoulder injury was a bit dark cloud. I still think they have seen enough. Not sure tho if they can match all offers from the other teams.

I mean offensively he's averaging 19 ppg on 65% TS, realistically I don't know how that can get much better as a 2nd option stretch 4. If he gets any more efficient, he's now better than Steph Curry...and let's be realistic about expectations.

John Collins is averaging 18 ppg on 63% TS, and he believes (as does most of the NBA) he'll get a max contract from someone. If Collins = max, hard to argue Lauri with better #s = $12M-$15M.

The biggest thing stopping Lauri from getting a truly big contract is his injury history. If he's healthy for the remainder of the season, he'll probably get a bigger offer than most Bulls fans will want to pay for him.

He has been efficient on O, but.. he was still very 1 dimensional. It was mostly either 3p shot or drive from 3 point line on a move. What I would like to see is more options. If AK and BD think that's what Lauri is. Fine. Boylen thought so. Then he is replaceable. If they think that he could be more than that (mid range presence, shot creating.. anything to make more options than catch & shoot or drive.) then he can be even more efficient. Can they teach those things anymore?

I think his D took steps forward this off-season. If they think that he can make steps also next.. then he is 4/20 for sure. Injuries will decide tho. That's for sure.

[Kukoc-Lauri]

The Bulls miss Lauri's three-point shooting but the offensive flow hasn't been hampered with him out. The team is still generating good three-point looks. They aren't missing his defense or rebounding. Both Collins and Lauri have durability issues. Lauri is having a good year before the injury but I just think this is a contract year bump and not what he'll be going forward. You can find three-point shooting for less than 20 million per year.

Putting him on that box is very damaging to player and the ball club. That is Boylen strategy. He could be much more on offense. Dont expect shot creation but he could be walking mismatch on 80% matchups if put in right positions which is job of nba pointguard and coach. He should be able to add at least two post moves to punish guys like Smart in paint. That part of game is missing badly.

[MrSparkle]

The Bulls miss Lauri's three-point shooting but the offensive flow hasn't been hampered with him out. The team is still generating good three-point looks. They aren't missing his defense or rebounding. Both Collins and Lauri have durability issues. Lauri is having a good year before the injury but I just think this is a contract year bump and not what he'll be going forward. You can find three-point shooting for less than 20 million per year.

Putting him on that box is very damaging to player and the ball club. That is Boylen strategy. He could be much more on offense. Dont expect shot creation but he could be walking mismatch on 80% matchups if put in right positions which is job of nba pointguard and coach. He should be able to add at least two post moves to punish guys like Smart in paint. That part of game is missing badly.

Problem is he can’t punish Kemba Walker or TJ McConnell in the post. Ends up punishing himself. Pretty lofty expecting it against a good defensive guard, let alone somebody over 6’4.

There’s one type of player he punishes in the NBA: the defensive matador. Sure he can get his shot off on Carmelo, WCS and Love.

[DroseReturnChi]

The Bulls miss Lauri's three-point shooting but the offensive flow hasn't been hampered with him out. The team is still generating good three-point looks. They aren't missing his defense or rebounding. Both Collins and Lauri have durability issues. Lauri is having a good year before the injury but I just think this is a contract year bump and not what he'll be going forward. You can find three-point shooting for less than 20 million per year.

Putting him on that box is very damaging to player and the ball club. That is Boylen strategy. He could be much more on offense. Dont expect shot creation but he could be walking mismatch on 80% matchups if put in right positions which is job of nba pointguard and coach. He should be able to add at least two post moves to punish guys like Smart in paint. That part of game is missing badly.

Problem is he can’t punish Kemba Walker or TJ McConnell in the post. Ends up punishing himself. Pretty lofty expecting it against a good defensive guard, let alone somebody over 6’4.

There’s one type of player he punishes in the NBA: the defensive matador. Sure he can get his shot off on Carmelo, WCS and Love.

nobody cares abt post plays unless your archaic Boylen. What matters is he is close to a 50/40/90 guy and a 7 footer.
4 finger Bertrans cannot do anything and these types are getting 20mil/yr type contracts.

[DroseReturnChi]

Lauri will probably get a 4 year 80 mil contract in the open market. That’s an offer that we should match consider Lauri age. This decision imo is very similar to Zach Lavine ordeal.

It's not that it isn't a "fair" deal, IMO, the opportunity cost to keep him in not having that space as part of a future opportunity to bring in a 2nd or 3rd MAX star is too high - coupled with my fear that Lauri will be about as durable at Otto, making him untradeable down the road.

There is no reason for us not to have space for a second max cat. There is no such thing as a third max cat. In most scenarios, it’s likely an overpaid flawed player. In an era with increasing salary cap space, 20 mil per year in 2-3 years from now will be equivalent to 15-16K now, which is pretty much the going rate for a high end player.

I personally think that Lauri will be resigned by us at the market set rate, which will end up being a steal for us in the long run.

Hard to take this argument seriously when the lavine fans claim paying 40 per yr is cheap while they cannot imagine paying Lauri half of it. And im pretty sure Lavine isnt twice better just because he has a ridiculous 35 usg. Imagine what Lauri would avg if he had 20 shots.

You can pay Lauri 15-20 whatever the amt and still get a 3rd max. The problem is Lavine whose contract will cripple this franchise.
If Lavine only shut up and got less than max, the Bulls could have 2 more max and Lauri.

[Chicago-Bull-E]

Needs to get traded at the deadline. A mid to late first would be a steal.

[MrSparkle]

Putting him on that box is very damaging to player and the ball club. That is Boylen strategy. He could be much more on offense. Dont expect shot creation but he could be walking mismatch on 80% matchups if put in right positions which is job of nba pointguard and coach. He should be able to add at least two post moves to punish guys like Smart in paint. That part of game is missing badly.

Problem is he can’t punish Kemba Walker or TJ McConnell in the post. Ends up punishing himself. Pretty lofty expecting it against a good defensive guard, let alone somebody over 6’4.

There’s one type of player he punishes in the NBA: the defensive matador. Sure he can get his shot off on Carmelo, WCS and Love.

nobody cares abt post plays unless your archaic Boylen. What matters is he is close to a 50/40/90 guy and a 7 footer.
4 finger Bertrans cannot do anything and these types are getting 20mil/yr type contracts.

Working out really well for the Wizards..