Official Trade Thread -- Part XL

[payitforward]

Who is making these "absolute statements" about Rui?

Here are Rui's numbers this year and last: https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/h/hachiru01.html

Please take a look at the per 36 minute numbers & tell me what you see.

[Shoe]

Who is making these "absolute statements" about Rui?

Here are Rui's numbers this year and last: https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/h/hachiru01.html

Please take a look at the per 36 minute numbers & tell me what you see.

4.8 fta on 12.7 fga, one of the best ratios in that range. He's 46th in free throw attempts while 116th in field goal attempts. All while shooting 78% from the line.

[Ruzious]

Who is making these "absolute statements" about Rui?

Here are Rui's numbers this year and last: https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/h/hachiru01.html

Please take a look at the per 36 minute numbers & tell me what you see.

4.8 fta on 12.7 fga, one of the best ratios in that range. He's 46th in free throw attempts while 116th in field goal attempts. All while shooting 78% from the line.

That would mean a lot more if it led him to be an efficient scorer, but his eFG is only 49.2. I think he'll improve that, but it shows there's still a lot of improvement needed for him to be an efficient scorer.

[Shoe]

Who is making these "absolute statements" about Rui?

Here are Rui's numbers this year and last: https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/h/hachiru01.html

Please take a look at the per 36 minute numbers & tell me what you see.

4.8 fta on 12.7 fga, one of the best ratios in that range. He's 46th in free throw attempts while 116th in field goal attempts. All while shooting 78% from the line.

That would mean a lot more if it led him to be an efficient scorer, but his eFG is only 49.2. I think he'll improve that, but it shows there's still a lot of improvement needed for him to be an efficient scorer.

67 games into his career. 55ts isn't terrible. He's 34th in the league in free throw rate. No one's been mentioning how good he's been at selling contact.

[Ruzious]

4.8 fta on 12.7 fga, one of the best ratios in that range. He's 46th in free throw attempts while 116th in field goal attempts. All while shooting 78% from the line.

That would mean a lot more if it led him to be an efficient scorer, but his eFG is only 49.2. I think he'll improve that, but it shows there's still a lot of improvement needed for him to be an efficient scorer.

67 games into his career. 55ts isn't terrible. He's 34th in the league in free throw rate. No one's been mentioning how good he's been at selling contact.

Again, it's because the benefit of doing that is supposed to be that he's an efficient scorer, and he's not an efficient scorer.

[Shoe]

That would mean a lot more if it led him to be an efficient scorer, but his eFG is only 49.2. I think he'll improve that, but it shows there's still a lot of improvement needed for him to be an efficient scorer.

67 games into his career. 55ts isn't terrible. He's 34th in the league in free throw rate. No one's been mentioning how good he's been at selling contact.

Again, it's because the benefit of doing that is supposed to be that he's an efficient scorer, and he's not an efficient scorer.

DeRozan. Worse than 49.2 eFG most of his career. Never eclipsed 55ts in Toronto. He still bludgeoned teams at the foul line. The benefit of what Rui's doing is showing potential at drawing fouls. He could end up improving on an already impressive ability.

[NatP4]

Man, both OKC&NY have 2 picks in that 5-15 range. If we are sitting at 4/5/6/7 and are looking at Moody/Johnson/Kuminga/Green/Barnes, I don’t see why we wouldn’t just go 1 for 2 and take Springer&Wagner.

We can acquire that 18th overall from Boston in a Bertans trade and take Jared Butler.

Westbrook Springer Winston
Beal Mathews Butler
Bonga Brown Jr
Avdija Hachimura F Wagner
Bryant M Wagner

That would be an impressive reload without having to ship out your franchise piece.

[Ruzious]

67 games into his career. 55ts isn't terrible. He's 34th in the league in free throw rate. No one's been mentioning how good he's been at selling contact.

Again, it's because the benefit of doing that is supposed to be that he's an efficient scorer, and he's not an efficient scorer.

DeRozan. Worse than 49.2 eFG most of his career. Never eclipsed 55ts in Toronto. He still bludgeoned teams at the foul line. The benefit of what Rui's doing is showing potential at drawing fouls. He could end up improving on an already impressive ability.

Good point. But I think even in just the last few years, the NBA has gotten a lot more dependent on making 3's. The key for Rui will be to improve his 3's. If he does that - and continues to do well drawing FT's, he's going to be a good scorer in the NBA.

[pcbothwel]

Man, both OKC&NY have 2 picks in that 5-15 range. If we are sitting at 4/5/6/7 and are looking at Moody/Johnson/Kuminga/Green/Barnes, I don’t see why we wouldn’t just go 1 for 2 and take Springer&Wagner.

We can acquire that 18th overall from Boston in a Bertans trade and take Jared Butler.

Westbrook Springer Winston
Beal Mathews Butler
Bonga Brown Jr
Avdija Hachimura F Wagner
Bryant M Wagner

That would be an impressive reload without having to ship out your franchise piece.

Just for some context:

NY Picks: NY is on pace to have picks 13 (DAL) & 16, and I dont trust those picks. Tom T with Randle, Quickley, Burks, and Rose will drag that team to compete for a playoff spot. I dont see that pick getting any lower than 13. The Mavs are starting to round into shape and they have an MVP candidate. Luka, THJ, Richardson, and Porzingis are all getting hot and they won 4 in a row before losing to Portland by 3 last game. I could see that pick in the 14-16 range if not higher if they really get hot/make a trade.

OKC Picks: Man oh man did they get lucky with the Rockets implosion. That said, the pick is protected for 1-4 and Houston has lost 7 in a row. I think the initial high/relief from losing the Harden drama is starting to fade and I could easily see this pick being in the top 4. Whats crazy is that this pick to OKC doesnt roll over to next year, but is simply extinguished. I think the tank rolls on as Wood/Gordon see a slight cool off and they move Dipo at the deadline.

As for your overall trade i dont disagree, but I think Suggs drops to 4...maybe 5 and Kuminga/Green get taken by someone higher. Twolves, Cavs, Magic and Pistons all have a PG and I see them ranking the other 4 higher.
Unless Suggs goes crazy in the tourney, I could see him dropping to 4/5 very easily and being a steal for someone. Maybe us.

[wall_glizzy]

That would mean a lot more if it led him to be an efficient scorer, but his eFG is only 49.2. I think he'll improve that, but it shows there's still a lot of improvement needed for him to be an efficient scorer.

67 games into his career. 55ts isn't terrible. He's 34th in the league in free throw rate. No one's been mentioning how good he's been at selling contact.

Again, it's because the benefit of doing that is supposed to be that he's an efficient scorer, and he's not an efficient scorer.

???

eFG doesn't take into account FT%, which TS% does. 55% true shooting isn't great either, but saying somebody's free throw rate is meaningless because is doesn't affect their eFG makes no sense.

[Ruzious]

67 games into his career. 55ts isn't terrible. He's 34th in the league in free throw rate. No one's been mentioning how good he's been at selling contact.

Again, it's because the benefit of doing that is supposed to be that he's an efficient scorer, and he's not an efficient scorer.

???

eFG doesn't take into account FT%, which TS% does. 55% true shooting isn't great either, but saying somebody's free throw rate is meaningless because is doesn't affect their eFG makes no sense.

Thanks, your right - I got eFG and TS% reversed.

[badinage]

Something called TrendingNBA sez:

NBA insiders believe that the player most likely to be traded at the trade deadline will be Westbrook, and that it’ll be to the Clips.

Weird. If true. What would they have that would entice the Wizards?

[NatP4]

Something called TrendingNBA sez:

NBA insiders believe that the player most likely to be traded at the trade deadline will be Westbrook, and that it’ll be to the Clips.

Weird. If true. What would they have that would entice the Wizards?

A half eaten pizza?

No one is trading for Westbrook.

[nate33]

What would they have that would entice the Wizards?

Shorter contracts.

It would require them trading us some combination of:
Lou Williams ($8M)
Patrick Beverley ($13.3M, $14.3M)
Marcus Morris ($14.8M, $15.6M, $16.4M, $17.1M)
Ivica Zubac ($7M, $7.5M)
Mfiondu Kabengele ($2M)

Unfortunately, they are hard capped and can only add about $600K to their cap total in any Westbrook deal, which means they have to send out $40.7M in the transaction. That would mean all 4 of Williams, Beverley, Morris and Zubac.

I think it's unlikely. If they did it, it would probably be Williams, Beverley, Morris and Zubac for Westbrook and Len. It really eats into their depth, though. Maybe it would make sense if Patrick Beverley got hurt and was therefore useless in a playoff run. Then it would look like exchanging Lou Williams for Westbrook and Zubac for Len, with the only real on-the-court downside being the loss of Morris.

I'd like it a lot better if we could launder Morris to a third team for a shorter contract. Maybe to New Orleans for Bledsoe? Or better yet, ship him to Boston for their TPE.

[nate33]

Read on Twitter

Big. If true.

[pcbothwel]

Something called TrendingNBA sez:

NBA insiders believe that the player most likely to be traded at the trade deadline will be Westbrook, and that it’ll be to the Clips.

Weird. If true. What would they have that would entice the Wizards?

I dont see it. LAC is hard capped and at the limit right now (~500k under). Meaning they would need to send back essentially matching salary. The ONLY trade structure that would work financially, not gut them of their 5 best players (Kawhi, PG, Batum, Ibaka, Zubac), be allowed for roster size purposes (I.E. LAC trading 6 players to just 1 (Russ))... would be:

LAC: Morris, Pat Bev, Lou Will, Kennard, Pat Patterson
WAS: Russ + 2 of Bonga/Neto/Len

Russ / Neto
PG / Jackson
Kawhi / Mann
Batum / Bonga
Ibaka / Zubac

The only financial reason LAC would consider this is because Morris + Kennard will be making about ~30M each of the following 3 years after this one. They might think the additional 15M for Russ isnt a big ask, especially when you consider that they would actually save 30M on the backend as Russ expires a year earlier.
Essentially, both of them are due 90M as is Russ. Not that bad when you view it that way. Also, while both players have scored efficiently (60% TS), they have provided nothing else on offense and been sieves on defense.

For perspective, Morris + Kennard COMBINED per36: 32/10/4 on 25 FGA vs 21/10/10 on 19 FGA for Russ

[NatP4]

I’d rather just keep him. He’s the tank commander

[payitforward]

67 games into his career. 55ts isn't terrible. He's 34th in the league in free throw rate. No one's been mentioning how good he's been at selling contact.

Again, it's because the benefit of doing that is supposed to be that he's an efficient scorer, and he's not an efficient scorer.

DeRozan. Worse than 49.2 eFG most of his career. Never eclipsed 55ts in Toronto. He still bludgeoned teams at the foul line. The benefit of what Rui's doing is showing potential at drawing fouls. He could end up improving on an already impressive ability.

1. Actually, it's been mentioned several times that Rui is getting to the line more often per 40 minutes this season than last. That's a good thing.

2. TS% -- comparing Rui to DeRozan is pointless. On average, an NBA 4 posts a TS% of 57.4%. An average 2 posts @ 54.5%.

This year, Rui is getting to the line 30% more often than an average 4. That's above average, which is good. Equally important, & also good, he is getting to the line substantially more often than he did last year. That's improvement, & improvement is good.

If the above is meaningful & true, then so is this:

This year, Rui is posting a .549 TS%. That's below average, which is bad. Equally important, & not bad but good, his TS% is up somewhat from last year. That's improvement, & improvement is good.

Rinse & repeat for everything else he does on the court: assists are below average (bad) but improved (good). Rebounding is below average on both sides of the court (bad) & slightly worse than last year (bad), etc.

That's what there is to say. & that's all there is to say. The idea that there is some secret way to "project" Rui is plain silly. The idea that this secret lets you conclude that Rui is going to be an outstanding player is even sillier.

The way we're going to know how good Rui will be is that he's going to show us how good he can be. When will he show us that? I don't know & neither do you, so we'll just have to wait until he does.

Overall, this year, Rui is just slightly better than last year. A sliver. Maybe. That's right now. Not tomorrow or next month. By then things may change.

[nate33]

comparing Rui to DeRozan is pointless. On average, an NBA 4 posts a TS% of 57.4%. An average 2 posts @ 54.5%.

Derozan is pretty much playing the 4 this year in San Antonio.

[payitforward]

comparing Rui to DeRozan is pointless. On average, an NBA 4 posts a TS% of 57.4%. An average 2 posts @ 54.5%.

Derozan is pretty much playing the 4 this year in San Antonio.

True enough. & he's posting a 60.3% TS%.