Race to the bottom: Who's our biggest competition?

[Kilo]

I think the biggest competition will be

Cavs
Wolves
Magic
Thunder

Looks to me like staying in the bottom four isn't much worse than being last.


Worst - 14.0% chance of first pick, 52.1% chance of top four pick
Fourth Worst - 12.5% chance of first pick, 48.0% chance of top four pick

It matters with post lottery slotting. Finishing last means even if four teams win the lottery from behind the Pistons, Detroit still ends up with 5th pick. If Detroit finished 4th worst and four teams leapt from behind the Pistons could pick 8th. Not odds are very long that would happen but even just two teams come up from behind and the Pistons pick 6th.

[Kilo]

Minnesota is the only competition I think ultimately. And I think they're better trying to win to send a worse pick back than tank hard and give GSW a 4/5 pick. If they try to win and finish 5/6th worst either they win the lottery and keep the pick or GSW pick 7-9 range.

This is a top 5 draft, they don't want to have ended up trading Wiggins and Kumina or Suggs for DAR.

[Snakebites]

The Wolves legitimately are this bad.

Will be tough to compete with them for the bottom. We’ll have to see if the easier schedule and Blake’s departure hurt us in the long run. So far it appears that playing weaker teams does nothing to improve our odds.

I’m not stressed though. Being dead last doesn’t carry the benefit it used to.

[Invictus88]

The Wolves are 1-4 since KAT has come back from injury. I was kind of hoping they would be able to sneak in a few more Ws after his return... but that hasn't happened yet.

[Billl]

The cavs and the rockets are in freefall. 8 and 7 losses in a row respectively. Hopefully wood and Love get back soon.

[440BB]

I thought the Wizards would play well enough to stay out of the bottom five, but Ish Smith going down for six to eight weeks puts them a little closer to the bottom. I hope Cassius Winston does well in his absence.

[MotownMadness]

I thought the Wizards would play well enough to stay out of the bottom five, but Ish Smith going down for six to eight weeks puts them a little closer to the bottom. I hope Cassius Winston does well in his absence.

All I know is he becomes a 20ppg beast in 2k

[ducler]

Both Magic games of next week will be crucial for us. We can strengthen our worst 2 position or go up worst 5.

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[edmunder_prc]

Looking at the standings, there are a NINE teams with 12-10 wins that are above the Pistons.

If the Pistons win both games against the Magic, get ready for a pick in the mid teens and 1.5% to .05% chance to move up to 1st pick.
Need serious clutch losses. Basically, whatever it takes.

Grant, Plumlee and Wright need bad cases of stomach bugs, stuck on the toilet all game.

[Snakebites]

Looking at the standings, there are a NINE teams with 12-10 wins that are above the Pistons.

If the Pistons win both games against the Magic, get ready for a pick in the mid teens and 1.5% to .05% chance to move up to 1st pick.
Need serious clutch losses. Basically, whatever it takes.

Grant, Plumlee and Wright need bad cases of stomach bugs, stuck on the toilet all game.

It’s a crowded field just above us to be sure.

I think there are too many games left to place this much importance on any 2 games though. Some of those teams will be making pushes for the playoffs.

[Snakebites]

To speak more generally, I think our goal should be to be one of the worst 3-5 teams, somewhere in that range. But falling a bit lower than that wouldn't be a CATASTROPHE. Here's why:

The era where you can lose enough games to guarantee or virtually guarantee yourself a top 3 pick is (unfortunately for us this year) over. We actually had a pretty decent chance at moving up at the 5 spot last year, it just didn't happen.

For perspective, lets just say your GOAL is to get any one of the first 3 picks. Yes, the lottery plays into the 4th pick as well now but people seem to think this is a 3 star draft. The odds of TOP 3 for each spot are as follows.

Worst team- 40%
Second Worst- 40%
Third- 40%
Fourth- 36.6%
Fifth- 31.6%
Sixth- 27.6%
7th- 23.44%
8th-19%
9th- 15.5%

too lazy to do spots 10-13, you get the idea, it diminishes from here, until:

14th - 1.6%

And your floor is (generally) whatever your position is plus 4, except for spots 11-14, who's floor is 14. For instance, at the 5 spot last year we fell to 7th but we in theory could have fallen as far as 9.

The overall takeaway here is as follows:

1) Even the worst team still more likely than not isn't getting a top 3 pick, and they have a nearly 50% chance of falling 4 spots to #5.
2) Middle of the lottery is not the death sentence it used to be- even as far as 8-9 you still have a legit (though smaller) spot at finding luck.
3) The bottom of the lottery still needs to be avoided at ALL costs.

So I'm not going to worry about a couple of games in February...yet.

[MotownMadness]

To speak more generally, I think our goal should be to be one of the worst 3-5 teams, somewhere in that range. But falling a bit lower than that wouldn't be a CATASTROPHE. Here's why:

The era where you can lose enough games to guarantee or virtually guarantee yourself a top 3 pick is (unfortunately for us this year) over. We actually had a pretty decent chance at moving up at the 5 spot last year, it just didn't happen.

For perspective, lets just say your GOAL is to get any one of the first 3 picks. Yes, the lottery plays into the 4th pick as well now but people seem to think this is a 3 star draft. The odds of TOP 3 for each spot are as follows.

Worst team- 40%
Second Worst- 40%
Third- 40%
Fourth- 36.6%
Fifth- 31.6%
Sixth- 27.6%
7th- 23.44%
8th-19%
9th- 15.5%

too lazy to do spots 10-13, you get the idea, it diminishes from here, until:

14th - 1.6%

And your floor is (generally) whatever your position is plus 4, except for spots 11-14, who's floor is 14. For instance, at the 5 spot last year we fell to 7th but we in theory could have fallen as far as 9.

The overall takeaway here is as follows:

1) Even the worst team still more likely than not isn't getting a top 3 pick, and they have a nearly 50% chance of falling 4 spots to #5.
2) Middle of the lottery is not the death sentence it used to be- even as far as 8-9 you still have a legit (though smaller) spot at finding luck.
3) The bottom of the lottery still needs to be avoided at ALL costs.

So I'm not going to worry about a couple of games in February...yet.

God I remember when the 8th worst spot had like a 2% shot at moving up. Basically it's all just gonna come down to luck regardless i guess with these new odds

[MotownMadness]

Another cool thing I just discovered in Tankathon is they have a draft power rankings at the bottom of the home page. As of now the top 5 are as followed.

OKC- 6, 7, 22, 36, 50
DET- 2, 43, 46
MIN- 1
NY- 13, 16, 32
HOU- 8, 24, 37

[Snakebites]

To speak more generally, I think our goal should be to be one of the worst 3-5 teams, somewhere in that range. But falling a bit lower than that wouldn't be a CATASTROPHE. Here's why:

The era where you can lose enough games to guarantee or virtually guarantee yourself a top 3 pick is (unfortunately for us this year) over. We actually had a pretty decent chance at moving up at the 5 spot last year, it just didn't happen.

For perspective, lets just say your GOAL is to get any one of the first 3 picks. Yes, the lottery plays into the 4th pick as well now but people seem to think this is a 3 star draft. The odds of TOP 3 for each spot are as follows.

Worst team- 40%
Second Worst- 40%
Third- 40%
Fourth- 36.6%
Fifth- 31.6%
Sixth- 27.6%
7th- 23.44%
8th-19%
9th- 15.5%

too lazy to do spots 10-13, you get the idea, it diminishes from here, until:

14th - 1.6%

And your floor is (generally) whatever your position is plus 4, except for spots 11-14, who's floor is 14. For instance, at the 5 spot last year we fell to 7th but we in theory could have fallen as far as 9.

The overall takeaway here is as follows:

1) Even the worst team still more likely than not isn't getting a top 3 pick, and they have a nearly 50% chance of falling 4 spots to #5.
2) Middle of the lottery is not the death sentence it used to be- even as far as 8-9 you still have a legit (though smaller) spot at finding luck.
3) The bottom of the lottery still needs to be avoided at ALL costs.

So I'm not going to worry about a couple of games in February...yet.

God I remember when the 8th worst spot had like a 2% shot at moving up. Basically it's all just gonna come down to luck regardless i guess with these new odds

Yeah, that's about the size of it, and it really is a double edged sword.

On one hand, I really don't think we need to stress nearly as much about a few wins here or there as long as we don't rise too far. Being the worst and being "almost" the worst are no longer appreciably different, and even mid-lottery only sees a marginal dropoff in your chances.

On the other, it means there's absolutely nothing we can do to change the fact that there's a really good chance we miss out on Cade and company.

It is what it is. Take the good with the bad and try not to freak out over a few wins- that's the advantage this new system gives us.

[Kilo]

It's a five person draft and Detroit can ensure one of those five by finishing dead last.

If Delon Wright out for awhile Detroit will not win a game until he's back. Smith/Lee/Jackson as the point guard rotation will not win a game.

[zeebneeb]

There is no way Minnesota should be this bad. It's absurd at this point.

[edmunder_prc]

There is no way Minnesota should be this bad. It's absurd at this point.

Yeah it really makes you wonder how they could be this bad, for that long.

Are GMs awestruck being around some NBA players and stop being rationale? Make a bunch of bad moves 3-4 years in a row?

They have a VERY good reason to lose every game though, outside Top 3 they lose their picks.

[Pharaoh]

Think it's crystal clear why they are consistently poor year after year regardless of where they pick:

1 - they lack all kinds of leadership in the playing group.

There are different kinds of leaders & you never hear of their better players being vocal, demonstrative or spiritual leaders.

On the Going to Work team we had Billups, Ben & Sheed just to start with.

2 - They usually have token veteran players - guys who barely play or if they do aren't playing at a high enough level or in a big enough role to own the locker room

3 - their "star" has a rep for being a numbers guy that doesn't like being told!

That's a recipe for failure.

They brought back Rubio hoping he'd make a difference but that's 1 guy who from all reports isn't really vocal and doesn't do a lot of team bonding kinda stuff.

GMs can find talent all they like but you gotta have the mix of humans in the locker room too and the Wolves have never figured that out regardless of FOs

There is no way Minnesota should be this bad. It's absurd at this point.

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[DetroitSho]

Think it's crystal clear why they are consistently poor year after year regardless of where they pick:

1 - they lack all kinds of leadership in the playing group.

There are different kinds of leaders & you never hear of their better players being vocal, demonstrative or spiritual leaders.

On the Going to Work team we had Billups, Ben & Sheed just to start with.

2 - They usually have token veteran players - guys who barely play or if they do aren't playing at a high enough level or in a big enough role to own the locker room

3 - their "star" has a rep for being a numbers guy that doesn't like being told!

That's a recipe for failure.

They brought back Rubio hoping he'd make a difference but that's 1 guy who from all reports isn't really vocal and doesn't do a lot of team bonding kinda stuff.

GMs can find talent all they like but you gotta have the mix of humans in the locker room too and the Wolves have never figured that out regardless of FOs

There is no way Minnesota should be this bad. It's absurd at this point.

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Wait, so a bunch of #1 picks and no veterans in the locker room really ISN'T the way? You don't say.

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[Pharaoh]

Think the Wolves, Kings and Wizards have proven that over the last decade while we've been mediocre af

Can't just blame their FOs and coaches either since all 3 of those organisations have changed FOs and coaches numerous times in the last decade.

Think it's crystal clear why they are consistently poor year after year regardless of where they pick:

1 - they lack all kinds of leadership in the playing group.

There are different kinds of leaders & you never hear of their better players being vocal, demonstrative or spiritual leaders.

On the Going to Work team we had Billups, Ben & Sheed just to start with.

2 - They usually have token veteran players - guys who barely play or if they do aren't playing at a high enough level or in a big enough role to own the locker room

3 - their "star" has a rep for being a numbers guy that doesn't like being told!

That's a recipe for failure.

They brought back Rubio hoping he'd make a difference but that's 1 guy who from all reports isn't really vocal and doesn't do a lot of team bonding kinda stuff.

GMs can find talent all they like but you gotta have the mix of humans in the locker room too and the Wolves have never figured that out regardless of FOs

There is no way Minnesota should be this bad. It's absurd at this point.

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Wait, so a bunch of #1 picks and no veterans in the locker room really ISN'T the way? You don't say.

Sent from my SM-N975U using RealGM mobile app

Sent from my SM-G781B using RealGM mobile app