Official Trade Thread -- Part XL

[gambitx777]

Luke isn't technically considered a poison pill I don't think but he is one. So while he has a long term slightly above mid level money deal he only counts as 5 mill incoming in a trade. The clips would have to trade half the team to make that work and it isn't worth it.

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[Shoe]

Again, it's because the benefit of doing that is supposed to be that he's an efficient scorer, and he's not an efficient scorer.

DeRozan. Worse than 49.2 eFG most of his career. Never eclipsed 55ts in Toronto. He still bludgeoned teams at the foul line. The benefit of what Rui's doing is showing potential at drawing fouls. He could end up improving on an already impressive ability.

1. Actually, it's been mentioned several times that Rui is getting to the line more often per 40 minutes this season than last. That's a good thing.

2. TS% -- comparing Rui to DeRozan is pointless. On average, an NBA 4 posts a TS% of 57.4%. An average 2 posts @ 54.5%.

This year, Rui is getting to the line 30% more often than an average 4. That's above average, which is good. Equally important, & also good, he is getting to the line substantially more often than he did last year. That's improvement, & improvement is good.

If the above is meaningful & true, then so is this:

This year, Rui is posting a .549 TS%. That's below average, which is bad. Equally important, & not bad but good, his TS% is up somewhat from last year. That's improvement, & improvement is good.

Rinse & repeat for everything else he does on the court: assists are below average (bad) but improved (good). Rebounding is below average on both sides of the court (bad) & slightly worse than last year (bad), etc.

That's what there is to say. & that's all there is to say. The idea that there is some secret way to "project" Rui is plain silly. The idea that this secret lets you conclude that Rui is going to be an outstanding player is even sillier.

The way we're going to know how good Rui will be is that he's going to show us how good he can be. When will he show us that? I don't know & neither do you, so we'll just have to wait until he does.

Overall, this year, Rui is just slightly better than last year. A sliver. Maybe. That's right now. Not tomorrow or next month. By then things may change.

Rui Hachimura is a young player. Some speculate that young players can improve. Rui draws shooting fouls at a higher than average rate. If he improves that rate it would bode well for his future. I hope I've taken out the mystery of my secret way to project Rui.

[dckingsfan]

Man, both OKC&NY have 2 picks in that 5-15 range. If we are sitting at 4/5/6/7 and are looking at Moody/Johnson/Kuminga/Green/Barnes, I don’t see why we wouldn’t just go 1 for 2 and take Springer&Wagner.

We can acquire that 18th overall from Boston in a Bertans trade and take Jared Butler.

Westbrook Springer Winston
Beal Mathews Butler
Bonga Brown Jr
Avdija Hachimura F Wagner
Bryant M Wagner

That would be an impressive reload without having to ship out your franchise piece.

Just for some context:

NY Picks: NY is on pace to have picks 13 (DAL) & 16, and I dont trust those picks. Tom T with Randle, Quickley, Burks, and Rose will drag that team to compete for a playoff spot. I dont see that pick getting any lower than 13. The Mavs are starting to round into shape and they have an MVP candidate. Luka, THJ, Richardson, and Porzingis are all getting hot and they won 4 in a row before losing to Portland by 3 last game. I could see that pick in the 14-16 range if not higher if they really get hot/make a trade.

I think it would be all of this if we are giving up Beal.

2021 first round draft pick from Dallas
Dallas' 2021 1st round pick to New York [Dallas-New York, 1/31/2019]

2021 first round draft pick from L.A. Clippers (swap, New York outgoing)
New York has the right to swap its 2021 1st round pick for the L.A. Clippers' 2021 1st round pick protected for selections 1-4 (if this pick falls within its protected range and is therefore not conveyable, then the L.A. Clippers' obligation to New York will be extinguished) [L.A. Clippers-New York-Washington, 2/6/2020]

2021 second round draft pick from Detroit
Detroit's 2021 2nd round pick to New York (via Philadelphia to L.A. Clippers) [Detroit-Philadelphia, 6/21/2018; L.A. Clippers-Philadelphia, 2/6/2019; L.A. Clippers-New York-Washington, 2/6/2020]

2023 first round draft pick from Dallas
Dallas' 1st round pick to New York protected for selections 1-10 in 2023, 1-10 in 2024 and 1-10 in 2025; if Dallas has not conveyed a 1st round pick to New York by 2025, then Dallas will instead convey its 2025 2nd round pick to New York [Dallas-New York, 1/31/2019]

2023 second round draft pick from Detroit
Detroit's 2023 2nd round pick to New York (via Philadelphia to L.A. Clippers to Minnesota) [Detroit-Philadelphia, 6/21/2018; L.A. Clippers-Philadelphia, 2/6/2019; L.A. Clippers-Minnesota, 11/19/2020; Minnesota-New York-Oklahoma City, 11/20/2020]

2023 second round draft pick from Utah
Utah's 2023 2nd round pick to New York [New York-Utah, 11/22/2020]

2024 second round draft pick from Utah or Cleveland (more favorable)
New York will receive the more favorable of Utah's 2024 2nd round pick and Cleveland's 2024 2nd round pick and Indiana will receive the less favorable of the two (via Utah's right to swap for Cleveland) [Cleveland-Sacramento-Utah, 2/8/2018; New York-Utah, 11/22/2020; Brooklyn-Cleveland-Houston-Indiana, 1/16/2021]

2026 second round draft pick from Minnesota
Minnesota's 2026 2nd round pick to New York [Minnesota-New York, 11/24/2020]

[PaulinVA]

Knicks’ power exec William Wesley recruiting Bradley Beal to team

"ESPN radio host Michael Kay reported this week that well-known Knicks executive William Wesley is recruiting Beal to the team via back channels..."

https://www.msn.com/en-us/sports/nba/knicks-power-exec-william-wesley-recruiting-bradley-beal-to-team/ar-BB1dRzTT?ocid=msedgntp

[payitforward]

DeRozan. Worse than 49.2 eFG most of his career. Never eclipsed 55ts in Toronto. He still bludgeoned teams at the foul line. The benefit of what Rui's doing is showing potential at drawing fouls. He could end up improving on an already impressive ability.

1. Actually, it's been mentioned several times that Rui is getting to the line more often per 40 minutes this season than last. That's a good thing.

2. TS% -- comparing Rui to DeRozan is pointless. On average, an NBA 4 posts a TS% of 57.4%. An average 2 posts @ 54.5%.

This year, Rui is getting to the line 30% more often than an average 4. That's above average, which is good. Equally important, & also good, he is getting to the line substantially more often than he did last year. That's improvement, & improvement is good.

If the above is meaningful & true, then so is this:

This year, Rui is posting a .549 TS%. That's below average, which is bad. Equally important, & not bad but good, his TS% is up somewhat from last year. That's improvement, & improvement is good.

Rinse & repeat for everything else he does on the court: assists are below average (bad) but improved (good). Rebounding is below average on both sides of the court (bad) & slightly worse than last year (bad), etc.

That's what there is to say. & that's all there is to say. The idea that there is some secret way to "project" Rui is plain silly. The idea that this secret lets you conclude that Rui is going to be an outstanding player is even sillier.

The way we're going to know how good Rui will be is that he's going to show us how good he can be. When will he show us that? I don't know & neither do you, so we'll just have to wait until he does.

Overall, this year, Rui is just slightly better than last year. A sliver. Maybe. That's right now. Not tomorrow or next month. By then things may change.

Rui Hachimura is a young player. Some speculate that young players can improve. Rui draws shooting fouls at a higher than average rate. If he improves that rate it would bode well for his future. I hope I've taken out the mystery of my secret way to project Rui.

I wasn't thinking of you as having "a secret way to project" Rui, Shoe. Didn't have you in mind at all.

&, you bet, young players can improve! They are more likely to improve than older players (for obvious reasons). & I pointed out ways, Rui has shown improvement.

Plus, as I wrote in my first sentence above, Rui increasing his FTs per 40 minutes is a good thing.

Every improvement in Rui's numbers is a good thing, makes him a better player. & every decline in Rui's numbers is a bad thing, makes him a less good player. Overall, all those numbers represent what he does on the court, which is to say they tell you how good a player he is. Right now, Rui is not a very good player. We all hope he will become one.

Of course some people don't think a player's numbers tell you how good or bad he is. Fine. But, a person who believes that can't apply it only to bad numbers: don't cite the good numbers as showing a player is good, then claim the bad numbers are misleading. Once again, shoe, that's not aimed at you.

[gambitx777]

That's a fast way to loose a pick via a tampering charge .

Knicks’ power exec William Wesley recruiting Bradley Beal to team

"ESPN radio host Michael Kay reported this week that well-known Knicks executive William Wesley is recruiting Beal to the team via back channels..."

https://www.msn.com/en-us/sports/nba/knicks-power-exec-william-wesley-recruiting-bradley-beal-to-team/ar-BB1dRzTT?ocid=msedgntp

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[WallToWall]

Knicks’ power exec William Wesley recruiting Bradley Beal to team

"ESPN radio host Michael Kay reported this week that well-known Knicks executive William Wesley is recruiting Beal to the team via back channels..."

https://www.msn.com/en-us/sports/nba/knicks-power-exec-william-wesley-recruiting-bradley-beal-to-team/ar-BB1dRzTT?ocid=msedgntp

Thanks for driving up the price.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

1. Actually, it's been mentioned several times that Rui is getting to the line more often per 40 minutes this season than last. That's a good thing.

2. TS% -- comparing Rui to DeRozan is pointless. On average, an NBA 4 posts a TS% of 57.4%. An average 2 posts @ 54.5%.

This year, Rui is getting to the line 30% more often than an average 4. That's above average, which is good. Equally important, & also good, he is getting to the line substantially more often than he did last year. That's improvement, & improvement is good.

If the above is meaningful & true, then so is this:

This year, Rui is posting a .549 TS%. That's below average, which is bad. Equally important, & not bad but good, his TS% is up somewhat from last year. That's improvement, & improvement is good.

Rinse & repeat for everything else he does on the court: assists are below average (bad) but improved (good). Rebounding is below average on both sides of the court (bad) & slightly worse than last year (bad), etc.

That's what there is to say. & that's all there is to say. The idea that there is some secret way to "project" Rui is plain silly. The idea that this secret lets you conclude that Rui is going to be an outstanding player is even sillier.

The way we're going to know how good Rui will be is that he's going to show us how good he can be. When will he show us that? I don't know & neither do you, so we'll just have to wait until he does.

Overall, this year, Rui is just slightly better than last year. A sliver. Maybe. That's right now. Not tomorrow or next month. By then things may change.

Rui Hachimura is a young player. Some speculate that young players can improve. Rui draws shooting fouls at a higher than average rate. If he improves that rate it would bode well for his future. I hope I've taken out the mystery of my secret way to project Rui.

I wasn't thinking of you as having "a secret way to project" Rui, Shoe. Didn't have you in mind at all.

&, you bet, young players can improve! They are more likely to improve than older players (for obvious reasons). & I pointed out ways, Rui has shown improvement.

Plus, as I wrote in my first sentence above, Rui increasing his FTs per 40 minutes is a good thing.

Every improvement in Rui's numbers is a good thing, makes him a better player. & every decline in Rui's numbers is a bad thing, makes him a less good player. Overall, all those numbers represent what he does on the court, which is to say they tell you how good a player he is. Right now, Rui is not a very good player. We all hope he will become one.

Of course some people don't think a player's numbers tell you how good or bad he is. Fine. But, a person who believes that can't apply it only to bad numbers: don't cite the good numbers as showing a player is good, then claim the bad numbers are misleading. Once again, shoe, that's not aimed at you.

I honestly wonder how much better is Rui Hachimura Than a lot of guys I’m watching in the NCAAs.

Right now I’m watching Bacot and Sharpe for UNC.

Trayce Jackson-Davis, Kofi Cockburn, Trevion Williams.

How much better is Rui than these guys? Donta Scott is shorter but looks to me to be significantly quicker, more explosive, and well rounded. He’s more of a SF.

[The Consiglieri]

You think that’s reasonable? I don’t. If I’m the Pels no way am I giving up my next 4 first round picks for Beal. And you know how much I love BB.

You might get two first round picks—maybe three—but not four.

Then its a very poor offer. I think you may value those projected late 1sts alot more than most. I'd rather I have one top 3 pick than 4 picks in 20s.

I agree, I only make a deal involving Beal once I know the draft position. He's not a player you give up for unknown/protected picks.

I agree w/the general sentiment you quoted. I don’t have interest in the firsts of teams that are perpetually competitive, but I also think that Beal needs to be moved to preserve lottery odds and the 1.5 seasons of control angle. It’s imperative that we pull a legit pick in this draft, not another peripheral /supplementary talent prospect, but a legit building block asset. The way things are trending I fear a weaker return AND a wrecked 1st barring miracle luck in the lottery.

[payitforward]

Then its a very poor offer. I think you may value those projected late 1sts alot more than most. I'd rather I have one top 3 pick than 4 picks in 20s.

I agree, I only make a deal involving Beal once I know the draft position. He's not a player you give up for unknown/protected picks.

I agree w/the general sentiment you quoted. I don’t have interest in the firsts of teams that are perpetually competitive, but I also think that Beal needs to be moved to preserve lottery odds and the 1.5 seasons of control angle. It’s imperative that we pull a legit pick in this draft, not another peripheral /supplementary talent prospect, but a legit building block asset. The way things are trending I fear a weaker return AND a wrecked 1st barring miracle luck in the lottery.

If your position is that Brad "needs to be moved," then you can't dictate what kinds of picks interest you. You take what you can get. That's reality.

Here's another example of reality: the fact that it's "imperative we pull... a legit building block asset" in this draft doesn't help us get one.

[payitforward]

...I'd rather I have one top 3 pick than 4 picks in 20s.

You sure about that, Dat?

You'd rather have R.J. Barrett than Brandon Clarke, Matisse Thybulle, Keldon Johnson &... some other guy of your choice picked in in the 20s in 2019?

How about in 2018? Would you rather have Marvin Bagley than -- oh, let's make it easier for you & go right to the 30's, 4os & 50s -- Mitchell Robinson, Jalen Brunson, Hamidou Diallo & Shake Milton?

2017 -- you'd prefer Fultz to Jarrett Allen, OG Anunoby, Derrick White & Josh Hart?

Of course, in 2016, it's a tough one.... But, you'd rather have Ben Simmons than Caris Levert, Pascal Siakam, Dejounte Murray & Derrick White?

You're really sure about that?

Then there's 2015, when you'd definitely prefer Jahlil Okafor to Delon Wright, Rondae Hollis-Jefferson, Larry Nance Jr. & Kevon Looney? (Let's not even mention Montrezl Harrell, Richaun Holmes, Norman Powell or Josh Richardson.

Of course, in that year like so many others, it's not just the top 3 picks which are so far superior to lower ones -- if you'd had picks 5-10 that year, imagine how unbelievable that would be!! I mean... you'd get Mario Hezonja, Willie Cauley-Stein, Emanuel Mudiay, Stanley Johnson, Frank Kaminsky & Justise Winslow.

No way you're getting players like that with a lower pick in the draft! Josh Richardson (#40) is no Mario Hezonja -- everybody knows that.

For that matter, even tho you nailed it that 4 picks in the '20s aren't worth a single top 3 pick, you might at least be able to trade up to #13 with those 4 picks -- but even then, how is that as good as a top-3 pick?

Why you'd be stuck with Devin Booker instead of Jahlil Okafor, right? Or, even better, D'Angelo Russell. Real top-tier talents.

You think it's different any other year, Dat? It's not.

[doclinkin]

...I'd rather I have one top 3 pick than 4 picks in 20s.

You sure about that, Dat?

You'd rather have ... etc etc etc

I'd rather have Dat pick a top 3 pick than have Tommy pick 4 players in the 20's.

But I'd rather have me with 4 picks in the 20's than Tommy with a top 3 pick.

[Ruzious]

4 game win streak - we need to trade our frp for aging veteran!

[Silvie Lysandra]

You sure about that, Dat?

well, let's see about that.

You'd rather have R.J. Barrett than Brandon Clarke, Matisse Thybulle, Keldon Johnson &... some other guy of your choice picked in in the 20s in 2019?

I'd rather have Ja Morant and Zion Williamson than all 3 of those players. A top 3 pick gets you a 66% chance of a quality player in this draft, versus a 30% chance at one in the 20s.

How about in 2018? Would you rather have Marvin Bagley than -- oh, let's make it easier for you & go right to the 30's, 4os & 50s -- Mitchell Robinson, Jalen Brunson, Hamidou Diallo & Shake Milton?

Okay, so out of 30 picks, you get 4 quality players, versus, again, 2 quality players out of 3 picks with a top 3 pick. And of course, if you expand out to top 5, you get 3 quality players out of 5 by adding Trae Young. And Jaren Jackson Jr. is at worst as good as all the players you mentioned. So really 4/5. Are you going to say you wouldn't trade Robinson, Brunson, Diallo and Milton for Luka Doncic, Deandre Ayton or Trae Young?

2017 -- you'd prefer Fultz to Jarrett Allen, OG Anunoby, Derrick White & Josh Hart?

Hard to really rate Fultz given the terrible injury situation. But I definitely prefer Jayson Tatum over all 4 of those players combined. And this is about as good as it gets for those picks in the 20s, and as bad as it gets for top 3, and you still have a 33% hit rate versus a 40% hit rate.

Of course, in 2016, it's a tough one.... But, you'd rather have Ben Simmons than Caris Levert, Pascal Siakam, Dejounte Murray & Derrick White?

2016 does not help your argument. Siakam vs Simmons is even, maybe slightly favoring Siakam. But Jaylen Brown and Brandon Ingram were also taken that draft.

You're really sure about that?

Then there's 2015, when you'd definitely prefer Jahlil Okafor to Delon Wright, Rondae Hollis-Jefferson, Larry Nance Jr. & Kevon Looney? (Let's not even mention Montrezl Harrell, Richaun Holmes, Norman Powell or Josh Richardson.

Nope, wouldn't prefer Jahil Okafor to those players. I *would* prefer Karl-Anthony Towns, though.

So it looks like a single top 3 pick not only gets you the same likelihood of hitting on a quality player as having 4 picks in the top 20, but it also gets you All-Star and super star level players, not just high quality role/rotation player (and your entire "data-driven" analysis hinges on the idea that the NBA has no **** idea what its doing by thinking that there's actually a real difference between highly efficient role players and players with star, or at least high quality starter potential)

But let's apply this thinking to some earlier drafts. Weird how, by using data in this way, Jared Sullinger, Evan Fournier and Miles Plumlee look more productive than Bradley Beal. Or even the Giannis draft, which you use to argue that the NBA has no idea what its doing and its wasting its money even attempting to scout players, as opposed to just accumulating as many darts to throw at the wall as possible, using the numbers the way you do results in Georgui Dieng being in the same tier of player as Victor Oladipo.

Speaking of wasting my time, I probably wasted my time typing this out, because you're so lost in your own perceived brilliance that the contradictions between your "data-driven" approach and "the reality of what players are good in the NBA" are just flushed down the toilet and you'll just spin up another tale of how the plebs are just taking you out of context and failing to understand your brilliance.

[gambitx777]

So about ten teams can beat NYK best offer for beal.

But what would that best offer be. Imo
Well we would be trade beal and Bertans in this trade keep in mind. For,

Barret, quickly, topping, robinson. You can include nittilkina and Brazdeikis if you want they are none factors but young.

Picks

2 2021 firsts dal and NYK, 2 2023 firsts NYK and dal and either

1 more future firsts from nyk
Or
1 2021 second from det 2 2023 seconds from det and utah. 1 2024 second from Utah and 1 2026 around from bucks.

That's probably the very best they can do and I think a few of teams can still beat that! The wizarda still might say all those mid their assets are not enough. Not to mention some fans might argue that's too much from the NYK sode. I'm just saying if they wanted to sell the farm for beal, that's the farm.

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[nate33]

So about ten teams can beat NYK best offer for beal.

But what would that best offer be. Imo
Well we would be trade beal and Bertans in this trade keep in mind. For,

Barret, quickly, topping, robinson. You can include nittilkina and Brazdeikis if you want they are none factors but young.

Picks

2 2021 firsts dal and NYK, 2 2023 firsts NYK and dal and either

1 more future firsts from nyk
Or
1 2021 second from det 2 2023 seconds from det and utah. 1 2024 second from Utah and 1 2026 around from bucks.

That's probably the very best they can do and I think a few of teams can still beat that! The wizarda still might say all those mid their assets are not enough. Not to mention some fans might argue that's too much from the NYK sode. I'm just saying if they wanted to sell the farm for beal, that's the farm.

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We definitely aren't trading Beal for that package prior to the Trade Deadline.

The only way a New York deal is happening is if they end up with a top 4 pick after the lottery. Then maybe we can work something out.

[prime1time]

A Beal trade before this offseason should be put to rest. 4 wins in a row and a winning record when we are healthy. Beal isn't going anywhere.

[payitforward]

You sure about that, Dat?

well, let's see about that.

You'd rather have R.J. Barrett than Brandon Clarke, Matisse Thybulle, Keldon Johnson &... some other guy of your choice picked in in the 20s in 2019?

I'd rather have Ja Morant and Zion Williamson than all 3 of those players.....

I don't want to go over all this again, but you are misrepresenting the terms, & that's an irrelevant statement. Anyone would rather have a single higher pick than a single lower pick. Duh. I'd rather have #3 than #4 -- that's obvious.

Dat's claim was different -- he maintained that owning any one top 3 pick (pick not player) in any draft is better than owning any 4 picks (not players) in the last 1/3 of R1 of that draft. In this case, it gets him R.J. Barrett. Period. Vs. my list above. Note that the terms were his not mine. Your "rebuttals" for other years have the same problem. As to...

...(and your entire "data-driven" analysis hinges on the idea that the NBA has no **** idea what its doing by thinking that there's actually a real difference between highly efficient role players and players with star, or at least high quality starter potential)...

Sigh.... You're firing at a straw man; I don't think anything of the kind. Nor any of this stuff either:

But let's apply this thinking to some earlier drafts. Weird how, by using data in this way, Jared Sullinger, Evan Fournier and Miles Plumlee look more productive than Bradley Beal. Or even the Giannis draft, which you use to argue that the NBA has no idea what its doing and its wasting its money even attempting to scout players, as opposed to just accumulating as many darts to throw at the wall as possible, using the numbers the way you do results in Georgui Dieng being in the same tier of player as Victor Oladipo.

As to this...

...Speaking of wasting my time, I probably wasted my time typing this out, because you're so lost in your own perceived brilliance that the contradictions between your "data-driven" approach and "the reality of what players are good in the NBA" are just flushed down the toilet and you'll just spin up another tale of how the plebs are just taking you out of context and failing to understand your brilliance.

Did I say something demeaning & unpleasant about you, man? Obviously not in this case, but have I perhaps insulted you in the past? & that's why you're acting like a dick? If so, you have my apology.

As to wasting your time, did I ask you to spend time proving that it's better to have the #3 pick than the #23 pick? Of course it is!

You don't have to read my posts if they don't interest you. Feel free to put me on "Ignore." If you respond w/ some more nasty sh*t, that's what I'll have to do to you. Seems like it might be more useful to apologize for being mean-spirited. Or, at least to recognize the fact. But... that's up to you.

[The Consiglieri]

A Beal trade before this offseason should be put to rest. 4 wins in a row and a winning record when we are healthy. Beal isn't going anywhere.

I think you’re right. They’re going to blow it yet again, but it shouldn’t be surprising. The Wizards have been irrelevant since I was toddling around preschool during the Carter Administration, and I’m freaking 46 years old w/no franchise relevance ever in 35 years of paying attention. I really need to focus on the USMNT. This is utterly hopeless. Sorry for the Debbie downer take. I’m just beyond sick of this.

[payitforward]

Dang! We've won 4 in a row, & people are complaining!

Were we jumping up and down in delight when we were losing pretty much every game we played?