2021 NBA Draft

[NatP4]

What’s the ceiling on a player that:

1. Gets steals, blocks, and rebounds
2. Younger than a handful of freshman, young for his class
3. Has elite A/TO ratio
4. Efficient scorer
5. One of the best defensive players in college basketball that can switch and guard multiple positions.
6. 6’9 200+ with a +3 wingspan

People don’t talk about his overseas numbers much, but Wagner was a lights out shooter before coming to Michigan and got up a TON of 3s. Always been a 85%+ free throw guy. He’s not going to be an 11 PPG scorer.

He’s Otto Porter/Mikal Bridges/Xavier Tillman mixed together. More of a PF than a SF.

[jman3134]

So how has he improved? I see a good player, but top 10 in this draft class?

[clyde21]

So how has he improved? I see a good player, but top 10 in this draft class?

how has he improved from last year you mean? well he's shooting better across the board, went from shooting 45 to 51% from the field, and 31% to 36% from 3, his assist rate has tripled on LESS usage, + BBIQ on both sides of the court, defensive metrics are much better, etc.

he has the profile of a top 10 pick anywhere u look at it. after the 'big 5'...he's right in that next group with Moody/Springer/etc.

[jman3134]

Poor hip flexibility doesn't spell much for his defensive potential against NBA athletes. There are so many guys who shoot 36% from 3 with high bball IQ. That doesn't merit a top 10 pick in my mind.

I understand that playing for Michigan, his numbers are a bit dampened and he probably projects as someone who plays within himself. So honestly the numbers do not mean as much. I just don't see it in relation to the other guys out there.

[clyde21]

is everyone assuming the top 5 (Cade/Suggs/Mobes/Kumi/JG) in whatever order is locked up right now?

looks like the top 5 is pretty set to me, and the draft will essentially start at #6.

[The-Power]

is everyone assuming the top 5 (Cade/Suggs/Mobes/Kumi/JG) in whatever order is locked up right now?

looks like the top 5 is pretty set to me, and the draft will essentially start at #6.

The order of the top 5 is still very much fluid, so in that sense the start of the draft will be interesting to follow as well. But yeah, I think those are the obvious top 5 guys at this point and I'd be surprised if that changed.

Not sure how others see it, but I also don't think this draft is anything special after the top 5. It has some interesting prospects in the tier below that but what makes this draft special is the top group of players and not the lottery depth, in my view.

[clyde21]

is everyone assuming the top 5 (Cade/Suggs/Mobes/Kumi/JG) in whatever order is locked up right now?

looks like the top 5 is pretty set to me, and the draft will essentially start at #6.

The order of the top 5 is still very much fluid, so in that sense the start of the draft will be interesting to follow as well. But yeah, I think those are the obvious top 5 guys at this point and I'd be surprised if that changed.

Not sure how others see it, but I also don't think this draft is anything special after the top 5. It has some interesting prospects in the tier below that but what makes this draft special is the top group of players and not the lottery depth, in my view.

i disagree on the rest of the draft, but agree about the top 5, will definitely be interesting to see who goes where, it's definitely super fluid.

[retrobro90]

is everyone assuming the top 5 (Cade/Suggs/Mobes/Kumi/JG) in whatever order is locked up right now?

looks like the top 5 is pretty set to me, and the draft will essentially start at #6.

The order of the top 5 is still very much fluid, so in that sense the start of the draft will be interesting to follow as well. But yeah, I think those are the obvious top 5 guys at this point and I'd be surprised if that changed.

Not sure how others see it, but I also don't think this draft is anything special after the top 5. It has some interesting prospects in the tier below that but what makes this draft special is the top group of players and not the lottery depth, in my view.

i disagree on the rest of the draft, but agree about the top 5, will definitely be interesting to see who goes where, it's definitely super fluid.

Yeah there's definitely gonna be a couple guys that go after the top 5 that turn into studs imo. Would not be shocked if any of the UK/Tennessee guys turned into special players. Scottie Barnes/Dosummu I could see as future stars that were overlooked during the draft.

[The-Power]

Yeah there's definitely gonna be a couple guys that go after the top 5 that turn into studs imo. Would not be shocked if any of the UK/Tennessee guys turned into special players. Scottie Barnes/Dosummu I could see as future stars that were overlooked during the draft.

But in which draft is it not the case that some players outside the top 5 could potentially turn out to be ‘studs’ down the road? Just look at last year's draft in which the top 5 was pretty underwhelming. Yet there were still a number of players drafted after that which have received some buzz as *potentially* great players.

Okongwu was seen by some as the best big in the class. Hayes has had his following that talked about him as a potential #1 pick. Toppin had his following of people that thought he was an obvious top 5 guy. Avdija and Haliburton were talked up as underrated players that should have been drafted higher than they were. Anthony still had some fans from his pre-college time where he was debated as a top 3 pick. Some were talking about Lewis and Maxey as Guards that could break out in the NBA, and then you had prospects like Pokusevski and Hampton who some were really high on as high-reward prospects.

It's completely normal to have prospects in the second half of the lottery (and even lower) that you think *could* be really good. In every draft. After all, top 15 guys are still really talented and look really promising relative to their peers. I just don't see this draft as a draft that is particularly stacked in this range. Most players in that range look like potentially good role players to me (e.g. Barnes, Moody, Kispert, Wagner). The few that have more *realistic* upside than that (there's always some players who just explode) have a lot of development ahead of them, which is always difficult to project and not very realistic to expect (even if you might have some reason to hope for it) (e.g. Boston, Johnson, Ziaire – or the Tennessee guys who I, however, see as more likely to develop into decent role players than stars).

[retrobro90]

Yeah there's definitely gonna be a couple guys that go after the top 5 that turn into studs imo. Would not be shocked if any of the UK/Tennessee guys turned into special players. Scottie Barnes/Dosummu I could see as future stars that were overlooked during the draft.

But in which draft is it not the case that some players outside the top 5 could potentially turn out to be ‘studs’ down the road? Just look at last year's draft in which the top 5 was pretty underwhelming. Yet there were still a number of players drafted after that which have received some buzz as *potentially* great players.

Okongwu was seen by some as the best big in the class. Hayes has had his following that talked about him as a potential #1 pick. Toppin had his following of people that thought he was an obvious top 5 guy. Avdija and Haliburton were talked up as underrated players that should have been drafted higher than they were. Anthony still had some fans from his pre-college time where he was debated as a top 3 pick. Some were talking about Lewis and Maxey as Guards that could break out in the NBA, and then you had prospects like Pokusevski and Hampton who some were really high on as high-reward prospects.

It's completely normal to have prospects in the second half of the lottery (and even lower) that you think *could* be really good. In every draft. After all, top 15 guys are still really talented and look really promising relative to their peers. I just don't see this draft as a draft that is particularly stacked in this range. Most players in that range look like potentially good role players to me (e.g. Barnes, Moody, Kispert, Wagner). The few that have more *realistic* upside than that (there's always some players who just explode) have a lot of development ahead of them, which is always difficult to project and not very realistic to expect (even if you might have some reason to hope for it) (e.g. Boston, Johnson, Ziaire – or the Tennessee guys who I, however, see as more likely to develop into decent role players than stars).

Well this is all pretty speculative as you know and we're probably gonna agree and disagree in terms of individual evaluations of prospects. I understand your points and all of the anecdotal evidence of last year's draft. Hindsight is one of the fun things about the draft in general. I just think based on what I've seen from certain players in this class that they have what it takes to make it to star status during their careers. Didn't get quite as much of that from last year's class but that's my temperature take on who I see as a role player and who I see with high end upside.

[Duke4life831]

I will say just from a Duke fan perspective, this team is playing like a weight has been lifted off their shoulders since Jalen has left.

[jman3134]

It could just be that it was not a good lineup fit. Perhaps Wendell is a better option than Jalen on the wing and Williams needs to start. Jalen can still be good (with considerable upside) and Duke can be more well rounded as a team without him in the starting lineup. These things are not mutually exclusive.

[clyde21]

I will say just from a Duke fan perspective, this team is playing like a weight has been lifted off their shoulders since Jalen has left.

doesn't really seem like anything changed on the court, not like JJ was not playing well, he was barely touching the ball really because Coach K never actually made it a point to get it into his hands (despite his usage rate he wasn't really running the offense at any point)

JJ actually led the Duke team in defensive rating, was 2nd in BPM, 3rd in WS/48, scoring efficiently enough, and one of their best rebounders...unless he was an absolutely mess in the locker (not sure if you're heard anything there) i think this is most likely just a coincidence...this Duke was gonna look at a lot better than it had at any point just by virtue of the talent on the roster finally meshing.

that said, JJ did have some pretty terrible body language on the court, and that dates back for him not just at Duke. not sure what his issues are but he needs to really chill on that because it's not gonna work in the NBA at all for him if that's gonna be his attitude long term.

[TraBuch]

I will say just from a Duke fan perspective, this team is playing like a weight has been lifted off their shoulders since Jalen has left.

Johnson's a talented player that was a terrible fit on this team. They're a better team without him not because he's a bad player, but because the players that're there now gel better as a team.

I do think JJ's attitude is a part of that. If someone made a mistake, he'd let them know about it. Now if someone makes a mistake, there's just encouragement.

Also, K seems to have decided to start coaching a bit again.

[babyjax13]

is everyone assuming the top 5 (Cade/Suggs/Mobes/Kumi/JG) in whatever order is locked up right now?

looks like the top 5 is pretty set to me, and the draft will essentially start at #6.

I think Springer could break into that group, personally. I'm not sure that it's likely, but especially with his age gap compared to everyone but Kuminga people could see a bit more upside than his college play (which has been good) would indicate.

[babyjax13]

With the advantage of hindsight, if Ball say...played like he is playing but in the gleague, where do we think he'd be drafted in this year's class? I think he'd be below Cade, and maybe Mobley ... but he'd be in the conversation for the top 3. Glad he is working out well, it makes last season's draft look less terrible, but the question marks around him were really understandable.

[No-Man]

is everyone assuming the top 5 (Cade/Suggs/Mobes/Kumi/JG) in whatever order is locked up right now?

looks like the top 5 is pretty set to me, and the draft will essentially start at #6.

I think Springer could break into that group, personally. I'm not sure that it's likely, but especially with his age gap compared to everyone but Kuminga people could see a bit more upside than his college play (which has been good) would indicate.

No chance, NBA folks are way lower on him than fans

And I'd have had Ball 2nd or 3rd in this class pre-draft, only doubt would be him vs. Suggs

[God Squad]

is everyone assuming the top 5 (Cade/Suggs/Mobes/Kumi/JG) in whatever order is locked up right now?

looks like the top 5 is pretty set to me, and the draft will essentially start at #6.

The order of the top 5 is still very much fluid, so in that sense the start of the draft will be interesting to follow as well. But yeah, I think those are the obvious top 5 guys at this point and I'd be surprised if that changed.

Not sure how others see it, but I also don't think this draft is anything special after the top 5. It has some interesting prospects in the tier below that but what makes this draft special is the top group of players and not the lottery depth, in my view.

i disagree on the rest of the draft, but agree about the top 5, will definitely be interesting to see who goes where, it's definitely super fluid.

I disagree also. Lets look at the potential lotto picks.

Jalen Johnson
Ziaire Williams
Sharife Cooper
Corey Kispert
James Bouknight
Moses Moody
Scottie Barnes
Usman Garuba (maybe)
Franz Wagner
Josh Giddey
Josh Christopher
Kai Jones
Ayo Dosummu

IMHO those are all solid prospects for the lottery, some are better than others. But still a lot of names and I didn't even really give it thought.

[peZt]

What an amazing draft. Incredible top 5 and even after that loads of prospects with massive talent. What is the record for all stars from one draft class?

[nolang1]

Yeah there's definitely gonna be a couple guys that go after the top 5 that turn into studs imo. Would not be shocked if any of the UK/Tennessee guys turned into special players. Scottie Barnes/Dosummu I could see as future stars that were overlooked during the draft.

But in which draft is it not the case that some players outside the top 5 could potentially turn out to be ‘studs’ down the road? Just look at last year's draft in which the top 5 was pretty underwhelming. Yet there were still a number of players drafted after that which have received some buzz as *potentially* great players.

Okongwu was seen by some as the best big in the class. Hayes has had his following that talked about him as a potential #1 pick. Toppin had his following of people that thought he was an obvious top 5 guy. Avdija and Haliburton were talked up as underrated players that should have been drafted higher than they were. Anthony still had some fans from his pre-college time where he was debated as a top 3 pick. Some were talking about Lewis and Maxey as Guards that could break out in the NBA, and then you had prospects like Pokusevski and Hampton who some were really high on as high-reward prospects.

It's completely normal to have prospects in the second half of the lottery (and even lower) that you think *could* be really good. In every draft. After all, top 15 guys are still really talented and look really promising relative to their peers. I just don't see this draft as a draft that is particularly stacked in this range. Most players in that range look like potentially good role players to me (e.g. Barnes, Moody, Kispert, Wagner). The few that have more *realistic* upside than that (there's always some players who just explode) have a lot of development ahead of them, which is always difficult to project and not very realistic to expect (even if you might have some reason to hope for it) (e.g. Boston, Johnson, Ziaire – or the Tennessee guys who I, however, see as more likely to develop into decent role players than stars).

I mean, you could say this kind of thing about every draft where you can cherry-pick individual people who are extremely high on particular prospects, but when you actually go back and re-rank draft classes, the 5-10 range is where you start to see role players; if you're seeing like 10 players with a good chance of becoming stars in a draft, that's usually a good sign to calibrate your expectations downward. I'm not even sure last year's draft is one where the 6-15 guys were especially good as much as it being kind of the opposite of this year where with a relatively weak top 5 it wasn't so much an affirmation of them as awesome prospects as much as people saying "this guy isn't that much worse than the #4 guy on the board - why not him?" It's not like any of those guys have looked particularly promising out of the gate aside from Haliburton, who somewhat ironically was mainly underrated for similar "he looks more like a good role player" reasons.

Wagner I like more than Avdija as a 3-D combo forward. Sengun is hiding in plain sight as either the #1 or #2 most productive European player at his age basically ever. When you factor in the relative age and positional scarcity (look around at the 6'7-6'8 athletic wings in the NBA and you'll find a lot of guys who had essentially zero outside shooting or ball skills their freshman year), I don't think you should be regarding Williams or Boston as way worse than Cole Anthony in the "let's give the highly-ranked recruit a mulligan on his college year" category. Barnes comes close to ready made with a very good role player skillset, and if he's 'just' a Kyle Anderson (actually #4 in VORP for the 2014 draft class) that's a solid return on a top 10 pick. Pokusevski was relatively unknown at this time last year since most people wait until after the college season to watch international prospects; I'm sure the pandemic has exacerbated that this year and there are guys like Makoundou who will rise up boards when more scouts get a chance to watch them.