2020-2021 NBA Prospects/ NBA Draft

[MotownMadness]

Interesting I thought 1-3 had the same odds but apparently it’s only the same odds for #1?

Yup. This is why if your going for a top pick, you want the best odds possible not to drop lower the 5th(worst record)or 6th(2nd worst record)as we currently are sitting.

If the Pistons end up with the 3rd, 4th, or 5th worst record, prepare for another disappointing lottery selection.

I would feel absolutely okay with a top 3 pick. 4 is pushing it, and 5 and under, well, screw it again I guess. This team needs to select a monster to really go anywhere. Pretty solid foundation right now, looking for the homerun.

1 through 5 is fine to me. If we fell to 6 or 7 in the lottery, I will punch the guy who lives down the street from me!

Yeah outside the top5 it feels like just any other draft just a good depth year. There will be someone that becomes good but I dont wanna play that game anymore and want the star potential for once.

[buzzkilloton]

Actually think their SIM is flawed as we usually fall to 5 or 6 regardless of how many times I do it or when

it's not flawed, those are the new odds.

right now we're second last in the league. the single most likely spot we end up in is 5th (27.8% chance). the next highest? 6th, at ~20%. we only have a 12-14% chance to land on any of the 1st-4th picks. the timberwolves have the worst record and they have the exact same chances as we do at any of the top 4 picks, the only difference is that 5th is the lowest they can go but they have a 47.8% chance of drafting there (the same odds as us falling out of the top 4, just combining our 5th and 6th place odds).

no matter which spot in the last three we land, we're still almost as likely to draft out of the top 4 as we are to draft in it. it's pretty much a 52%/48% split. even if you have the worst record you still only have a 40% chance of drafting in the top 3. it's part of the reason why i'm not too mad when we pick up wins against good teams, it's much more important for the players to learn to win those games than very marginally increase our odds (which are capped anyways).

there's a graph here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NBA_draft_lottery#Chances_of_winning

The drop off from 5 to 6 is massive this season. You're going from guys who would of been the top pick last season to guys who would be just standard 6 or 7 picks in any draft. It could turn out being like the drop off in 2003 4 and 5 Bosh/Wade then you drop to Kaman/Hinrich/Ford. So yeah pretty essential to get the worst record so we cant drop from 5.

[MotownMadness]

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[MotownMadness]

Crazy how high Green soars with ease. His head is basically at rim level with every dunk

[The Moose]

the top 5 in this draft look crazy good, we need to finish in the bottom 3

[BJK1]

So that’s why Weaver signed Okafor. Makes total sense now. The man is playing chess in a world full of checkers. Lol.

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[zeebneeb]

So that’s why Weaver signed Okafor. Makes total sense now. The man is playing chess in a world full of checkers. Lol.

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This means the Pistons are getting the #1 pick.

I choose to believe.

[DNice68]

Crazy how high Green soars with ease. His head is basically at rim level with every dunk

I have him as a better prospect than Kuminga. Kuminga’s shot selection is horrible.

[Piston Pete]

Green playing better each game, it seems.

I think the top 5 are definitely separating themselves.

In no particular order:

1) Cade
2) Mobely
3) Kuminga
4) Green
5) Suggs

[chrbal]

So that’s why Weaver signed Okafor. Makes total sense now. The man is playing chess in a world full of checkers. Lol.

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Happens again, jahlil is about to have a very specific niche in future free agency negotiations

[Piston Pete]

Downside to Green or Kuminga - shooting.

I know, small sample size....but thru 7 games:

Kuminga is shooting 23% from 3 on 5.6 attempts per

Green is shooting 29% from 3 on 4.9 attempts per

[NYPiston]

Kuminga's shooting isn't his biggest problem this season, it's his consistently horrible decision making but hard to take anything serious from such a small sample size. Both he and Green have the tools to be NBA All Stars regardless of the flaws we pick apart in their game.

[MotownMadness]

Cade is playing on ESPN right now and Mobley on FS1

[Pharaoh]

Easy to pick them apart now they're playing.

The drama is trying to project what they'll be when they're 23-28 years old

Kuminga's shooting isn't his biggest problem this season, it's his consistently horrible decision making but hard to take anything serious from such a small sample size. Both he and Green have the tools to be NBA All Stars regardless of the flaws we pick apart in their game.

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[NYPiston]

Easy to pick them apart now they're playing.

The drama is trying to project what they'll be when they're 23-28 years old

Exactly, that's why people need to be careful to not put too much stock into small sample sizes early in their careers.
Also, with the Covid landscape, it's even more difficult to scout these players this season.

It's all about projecting skillset to the next level and the interesting thing about this top 5 is that they all bring different skills to the table. They are all very different types of players.

[mattao313]

Cade only shooting 44% from 2 yikes anyone know what hes shooting at the rim? If he cant finish at the rim Id pass on him.

[MotownMadness]

Jalen Green looking good, 5-6 from 3 yesterday

[BJK1]

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[Piston Pete]

Top-5 guys have two tiers IMO

Top tier: Cade and Mobely

Secondary tier: Kuminga, Green, Suggs

[MotownMadness]

Top-5 guys have two tiers IMO

Top tier: Cade and Mobely

Secondary tier: Kuminga, Green, Suggs

Now that Greens jumper is starting to come along I might put him in that tier 1.