Post#1148 » by scrabbarista » Mon Feb 22, 2021 4:06 pm
As of the morning of February 22nd, with movement in the last five days.
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1. 22.1 - Jokic, DEN
2. 20.0 - Embiid, PHI +1
3. 18.3 - Leonard, LAC -1
4. 17.9 - James, LAL
5. 17.7 - Gobert, UTA
6. 17.6 - Antetokounmpo, MIL +1
7. 17.4 - Lillard, POR -1
8. 15.2 - Conley, UTA
9. 14.8 - Harden, BKN (+4, I think)
10. 14.4 - George, LAC (+2, I think)
11. 14.0 - Curry, GSW (-2)
12. 13.5 - Davis, LAL (-1, I think)
13. 13.3 - Doncic, DAL (-3, his team didn't play)
14. 13.2 - Randle, NYK (+ (at least) 2)
15. 13.1 - Durant, BKN (-1, I think)
16. 13.0 - Simmons, PHI
17. 12.9 - Irving, BKN (-2, I think)
18. 12.9 - Boucher, TOR
19. 12.7 - VanVleet, TOR
20. 12.5 - Young, ATL
21. 12.0 - Middleton, MIL
22. 12.0 - Paul, PHO
23. 11.2 - Williamson, NOP
24. 11.0 - Adebayo, MIA
25. 11.0 - Tatum, BOS
26. 10.2 - Harrell, LAL
27. 9.1 - DeRozan, SAS
28. 8.7 - Allen, CLE
29. 8.3 - Vucevic, ORL
30. 8.0 - Hayward, CHO
31. 7.6 - LaVine, CHI
32. 7.4 - Anderson, MEM
33. 7.0 - Beal, WAS
34. 6.5 - Sabonis, IND
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It's only been five days since I last posted the charts, but, as it feels like the conversation has picked up steam with Davis going down and Embiid having a big game, I decided to post this morning. I likely won't post results again until next week. I also decided, for novelty's and curiosity's sake, to post 34 names this week instead of just the usual 10. In the future, I'll probably post 10 or, at most, 15.
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Embiid cuts into much of the gap between him and Jokic, but it remains substantial. Perhaps more significantly, Embiid passes Leonard and puts a stranglehold on second place.
Things are starting to bunch up in 4th-7th, with LeBron slipping a bit, Gobert maintaining, and Giannis and Lillard making big pushes. The four spots are separated by just half a point. Leonard, in 3rd, isn't far ahead of them, either.
I recently posted the same formula in the rookie forum, and Immanuel Quickley was the leader. He was at around a 6 or a 7. There is a lot of volatility with rookies, though. I think Quickley is a clear third in the RoY race right now, behind Haliburton and Ball, in some order.
DISCLAIMER:
1) This formula is not designed to determine who is a "better player." It is an MVP formula, period. It is designed to choose an MVP, and - to a lesser extent - to identify the top five MVP candidates. It does that job well: it matches 10 of the last 12 winners, with the two exceptions being 2011 and 2017 - probably the two most controversial MVP's over that span.
2) These are not the top 34 players, even per the formula. Rather, they are the 34 players that I identified this week. Every week, I eyeball the standings and the stats in order to identify a group of candidates. Brogdon, Bridges, Holmes, and Brown were replaced this week by Boucher, LaVine, Anderson, Tatum. Next week, it could be a different four or five guys. I try to spread things out a bit among the teams; while there's no doubt that players like Jaylen Brown and Donovan Mitchell would be in the top 34, they aren't listed this week. Next week, they might be. The focus of the formula is on the very top of of the list, so it's really just academic once you get past the real contenders for the award.
*Lastly, note that the number of games a team has played can be an important factor this early in the season. More games equals more opportunity to provide value to your team. Even the difference between 31 games (PHI, LAL) and 28 games (DAL) is significant. Needless to say, this should even out by season's end.