Good offenses are pummeling the Bucks this season. Against teams with top-15 offensive ratings, the Bucks rank 25th in defensive rating, per NBA Advanced Stats. This is especially alarming considering Milwaukee ranked first in 2018-19 and sixth in 2019-20 against top-15 offenses and were first overall in defensive rating against all opponents in both seasons.
The league’s best teams have figured out how to exploit Mike Budenholzer’s defensive scheme, which calls for players to pack the paint to prevent layups and instead allow more open 3-pointers. But Brook Lopez has also lost a few steps since being named to the All-Defensive second team last season. He’s lumbering on closeouts on shooters, and has been even more heavy-footed defending perimeter threats.
Jrue Holiday was having a borderline All-Star season before the NBA’s health and safety protocols sidelined him on February 8. On top of losing one of the league’s best perimeter defenders, the Bucks are feeling the offseason losses of Wes Matthews, Eric Bledsoe, and George Hill, three veterans who could be relied on to get on-ball stops or make reliable off-ball rotations. Donte DiVincenzo, Bryn Forbes, and D.J. Augustin can’t make up the difference.
Budenholzer’s lack of notable adjustments in playoff series dating back to his time in Atlanta has given him a reputation as stubborn. But to his credit, the Bucks are changing. Slowly. This season, they’re switching screens about twice as often—though they still rank near the bottom of the league in frequency of switches. As Eric Nehm from The Athletic detailed earlier this month, the Bucks had some success closing a game against the Suns by switching more screens, though it didn’t work quite as well the following game against the Jazz. Giannis Antetokounmpo said the Bucks are using regular-season games as practices to install this new scheme.
“Win or lose, we’re getting better. Game by game, we improve. We are trying new things. We started the game switching. We’ve never done this before. It’s something we did at the end of the game in Phoenix. It’s something we think is going to help us,” Antetokounmpo said after the Bucks lost to the Jazz on February 12. “We changed our scheme in one day. We basically practiced our scheme in the game, but we know it’s something that’s going to help us two or three months from now.”
A switching scheme doesn’t necessarily guarantee success for Milwaukee anyway. For one, installing any system midseason, with limited off-days and practice time, is a challenge. Secondly, switching works best when there aren’t weak links. Milwaukee’s personnel aside from Giannis, Holiday, and Khris Middleton remains a concern. It’s not pretty when Lopez gets caught defending a guard, or when Forbes finds himself trying to contain a player 40 pounds heavier.
The Bucks most frequently switch screens with lineups that have Giannis at center. Perhaps we’ll see more of this in the playoffs. But even if the Bucks pull Lopez and put Giannis at center to maximize their switchability in a series against the Nets, it would put more strain on their shallow backcourt. The Bucks need to get their scheme right and upgrade the roster. The problem is they gave up the majority of their assets for Holiday. Executives around the league view DiVincenzo as the most valuable asset the Bucks have, ahead of first-round pick swaps in 2021 and 2023, and five second-round picks through 2027. They don’t have much to offer.
League sources told me in November that the Bucks were in pursuit of P.J. Tucker from the Rockets. Their interest remains today. Tucker would absolutely help. He is a stout defender who could thrive in small-ball lineups next to Giannis. Tucker turns 36 in May and will be a free agent this offseason, but the trade possibilities are limited with an empty asset cupboard.
The evidence that good opponents have figured them out is getting harder and harder to ignore. Giannis is now signed through 2025, but this team cannot become complacent. Change is needed now.
https://www.theringer.com/nba/2021/2/22/22294868/milwaukee-bucks-boston-celtics-east-trades
