coldfish wrote:chefo wrote:As I've proposed before--let's play a game:
Would you like to have a player that:
* Scores 20 per game in only 30 min
* Scores super efficiently (65% TS) on a high volume of 3s
* Finishes at an elite level at the rim (70%+)
* Plays off-ball and does not require high usage, so fits very well with your young scoring star who does require 1st option usage
* Plays average team D
* Is the best man-to-man defender among the team's bigs
The above is like all-star Zach's perfect side-kick.
Some people here tend to have mutually exclusive standards for Lauri--"we want him to be Dirk on O, and Gobert on D, and pay him $15M because... crickets"... and because he's neither Dirk on O, nor Rudy on D, "ship his posterior out of town", even though he was the Bulls' best player to start the year (before Zach got his rhythm) and was the second best player, and best big defender after that.
Be mindful of what you're gifted because the grass ain't always greener on the other side.
His one legit downside is his health--and it's also the reason the Bulls can probably lock him up for 18-22, rather than the rookie max, because any player fitting the criteria listed above, if healthy, would be getting a rookie max or close it.
Don't let him NOT living up to super-star expectations cloud the fact that we have one of the most efficient, high-volume scorers in the NBA already on the team.
He's already made big strides on D this year under coach D. If he adds being a GOOD team defender to being the best man-defender on the Bulls frontline, he'll be a bargain at 20. If you think he can't keep up his offensive production under coach D, that's a different story, but I don't see why he can't.
I disagree on your assessment of him.
First off, his off ball defense used to be a 0 on a 0-10 scale. He didn't do it at all, almost always staying with his man and ignoring open people. He never helped the helper. This year he started doing it but he still is behind the rest of the team. I would give him a 2 or a 3. His pick and roll defense is also terrible and its well beyond just the drop defense. Teams have specifically picked on him at times knowing that they can get an easy bucket out of it.
You didn't mention his passing. His assist rate stands at 4.3%, easily the worst on the team. Playing on a free flowing team like Chicago, that's pretty difficult to do. For gosh sake Felicio has a 16% assist rate this year. There is a reason why, despite his shooting, the team is better on offense when he is out of the game. Part of its him playing with Coby but another part is the fact that he is the *only* guy on the team who doesn't move the ball.
At the end of the day, his shooting is nice. I don't think he needs to do everything well to be effective. That's not a fair standard. That said, every other phase of the game for Lauri is substandard. The only thing he brings is off ball shooting. Defense, passing, shot creation, rebounding, etc. are all poor to outright bad. As a result, when you have him on the floor everyone else has to go through gyrations to cover for his deficiencies which his shooting simply doesn't make up for.
Hopefully when he gets back he gets with the program and starts to help on defense and pass on offense. If he does, he will be a real asset. If he doesn't, I wouldn't bring him back.
We'll have to agree to disagree on some of these points:
* His help defense wasn't any worse than any of other bigs, including WCJ and Thad. The first 20 games it was a lauyp line no matter who was in. I would argue WCJ was materially worse than Lauri at playing help D... because he was a near 0 as you put it while Lauri was a 3. Thad, if he could not get a charge straight up used to let people get open layups on him as well. WCJ remembered how to play help D, as the whole team got better--you are arguing that Lauri would not have gotten better alongside the rest of the crew, despite showing a pretty big improvement there from last year--yeah, you may argue he went from a 0 to a 3, but WCJ went from a 0 to 6 as he got better with time this year alone.
* Lauri is a better man-to-man defender than both WCJ and Thad, mostly because these two are tiny for front-court players. The ONLY time Randolph and AD had trouble scoring on us when Lauri manned them up. They straight up abused Gafford and Thad. He even guarded Dame well on 2-3 possessions when he was switched onto him. There's not another 'big' on the roster, including PaW and Thad that can do that currently. I'm not even mentioning WCJ who seems to have cement feet the last couple of years.
* On passing--I agree, but to a point. His job is to finish plays. He doesn't dribble, or hold up the ball. He shoots and drives as an end-point of a possession, and he's doing it an absolutely elite rate. He's not dribbling the air out of the ball to get his like Coby did to start the year. There is no player outside of Zach who Lauri should be giving up shots to because, by definition, the result would be statistically inferior. Here's how Lauri's most recent 30-point games came about: Zach gets doubled, passes to Thad. Lauri either spots up for an open 3, or Lauri cuts and get a pass for a layup/dunk. Repeat again and again. That's beautiful ball, no matter how you look at it. In context, he's finishing at 75% at the rim and 40% on his 3s. You don't want him passing these shots up so that Denzel or Temple can launch a shot. They are shots within the system--he's not breaking the flow of the game for the team as a whole.
* See above for shot creation--why do you need him to create for others? You've got Zach, Thad and Sato kicking ass in that department lately. No need for another guy to be creating just for the sake of creating. He's been elite at finishing possessions--let him continue doing that. In the end, no matter how well the ball moves--somebody has to put it in the hoop. That's like complaining that prime Suns Amare wasn't creating for others--it didn't matter.
* He's an off-ball player and for some reason, maybe because we had two of the best ever on-ball players in Scottie and MJ, we don't seem to value a guy that can score very well with barely touching the rock. You can't leave him open to help all game or else he'd drop 30 on your posterior, like he was starting to do regularly.
Overall, if he continues to improve on D and stays healthy, he's a player that's almost the perfect second banana to me. His flaws are consistent with him being a second banana. And, BTW, second bananas usually make maxes in the current NBA, so, health permitting, you'll probably have him for a bargain.