Official Trade Thread -- Part XL

[DCZards]

Get Bamba.

Btw, I think the knicks got blind lucky that Randle has stepped up from an empty stats guy to a legit high quality player. Last season, he made 27.7% of his 3's; now he's at 41.4%, but it's not just that. His BPM numbers - both offensive and defensive are far better than ever - this is the 1st year he's had a positive DBPM. Same deal with his ORtg and DRtg. His assists are way up while his to's have stayed the same. Knicks are 7th seed in the East now because of him.

That's what I mean.

Defense, for a center in particular, is complicated. Only the really, really smart, instinctive guys like Tim Duncan, defended well in their first year or two. And the odds of finding a really smart instinctive guy who is also 7 feet tall and athletic are relatively slim (because there aren't that many 7 feet tall athletic people to begin with). Most guys just need a lot of reps, 4 or 5 years worth. And then, suddenly, they're pretty good defensively.

Randle is not a center. He's a 6-8 PF. Robinson and Noel on the centers on the NYK.

[nate33]

Get Bamba.

Btw, I think the knicks got blind lucky that Randle has stepped up from an empty stats guy to a legit high quality player. Last season, he made 27.7% of his 3's; now he's at 41.4%, but it's not just that. His BPM numbers - both offensive and defensive are far better than ever - this is the 1st year he's had a positive DBPM. Same deal with his ORtg and DRtg. His assists are way up while his to's have stayed the same. Knicks are 7th seed in the East now because of him.

That's what I mean.

Defense, for a center in particular, is complicated. Only the really, really smart, instinctive guys like Tim Duncan, defended well in their first year or two. And the odds of finding a really smart instinctive guy who is also 7 feet tall and athletic are relatively slim (because there aren't that many 7 feet tall athletic people to begin with). Most guys just need a lot of reps, 4 or 5 years worth. And then, suddenly, they're pretty good defensively.

Randle is not a center. He's a 6-8 PF. Robinson and Noel on the centers on the NYK.

True.

But he is still a big man people dismissed as being hopeless on D, until now he is no longer that bad. And he does play some center when they go smallball

[doclinkin]

Btw, I think the knicks got blind lucky that Tom Thibodeau to ensure that Randle has stepped up from an empty stats guy to a legit high quality player.

EDITED for truth.

Through his first 30 games as Knicks head coach, Thibodeau has quickly turned around this Knicks’ team, instilling his patented hard-nosed defensive system while bringing an intensity to the Knicks’ sideline.

That intensity has resulted in Thibodeau earning a reputation around the league for perhaps being too hard on his teams at points, but Randle said that’s not the case, as he greatly enjoys what his head coach has brought to the table.

“I will say this about Thibs, he’s a tough coach if you don’t like to be coached or if you don’t like to play or do things the right way, then he’s tough,” Randle said. “Thibs is a guy that… just expects a certain level of professionalism, he expects you to do things the right way, be prepared and do things the right way on a day-to-day basis, and if you don’t want to do that, then it’s gonna be tough.

The Penguin is one of the few coaches that does make a significant difference on the win/loss record. On Defense especially. But overall focus in general.

[nate33]

Get Bamba.

Btw, I think the knicks got blind lucky that Randle has stepped up from an empty stats guy to a legit high quality player. Last season, he made 27.7% of his 3's; now he's at 41.4%, but it's not just that. His BPM numbers - both offensive and defensive are far better than ever - this is the 1st year he's had a positive DBPM. Same deal with his ORtg and DRtg. His assists are way up while his to's have stayed the same. Knicks are 7th seed in the East now because of him.

That's what I mean.

Defense, for a center in particular, is complicated. Only the really, really smart, instinctive guys like Tim Duncan, defended well in their first year or two. And the odds of finding a really smart instinctive guy who is also 7 feet tall and athletic are relatively slim (because there aren't that many 7 feet tall athletic people to begin with). Most guys just need a lot of reps, 4 or 5 years worth. And then, suddenly, they're pretty good defensively.

I suppose this brings up the issue of Thomas Bryant.

Is it reasonable to expect him to make a significant improvement in defense as he gets into his 4th and 5th season? Are his problems on the mental side, or is he simply incapable of being a good defender because he has slow feet and no vertical leap?

I tend to lean toward the latter. I don't see him ever being a plus defender. And it really doesn't matter how good a center gets on offense. If he can't defend, you can't win. Jokic is perhaps the best offensive center of all time, but his Nuggets are just 17-14.

[NatP4]

Wonder what it would take to acquire Delon Wright

[nate33]

Wonder what it would take to acquire Delon Wright

Good player. The time to get him was last summer when Dallas was just trying to dump him.

I don't really think he makes sense for us now, though. We can't afford to pay $10M on a backup guard next year, not when we are already paying $84M for our starting backcourt and another $16M for a 6th man forward.

[payitforward]

You lost me at Porter over Klay.

That fine... Klay's absolute BEST year (A really good year BTW) was in 2014-15 at age 24.
Per 36 over 77 games: 24.5 & 3.6 - AST:TOV ratio = 1.5:1, TS = 59%

Otto over the course of 2 years (2016-17) at age 23/24:
Per 36 over 157 games: 16 & 7 - AST:TOV ratio = 3:1, TS of 62%

So Otto averaged twice as many rebounds, an AST:TOV ratio that was TWICE as good, and was a more efficient.

But wait, you may say "Well, Otto was clearly better there, but what about the 9 point scoring difference?".
True, Klay did score 9 more points, but Otto took 12 FGA to get his 16 points, where Klay took 19 FGA to get his 24.5.

So Klay took 7 more shots to score 9 more points.

Defensively is tough. Both were better team defenders than shut down man defenders. For the years listed, Both averaged the same STOCKS (Steals + Blocks), with Otto more Steals and Klay more Blocks.
***It should be noted that this was Klay's career high in STOCKS and he hasn't been near it since. Whereas Otto has been consistent his entire career...but I digress.

I think we can say they were about even, though some "Rollup" stats like DRPM and RAPTOR point to Otto being quite a bit better defensively.

All that, and it doesn't take into account that the 5 players Klay played the most minutes with were:
Curry (2000), Draymond(1961), Barnes(1657), Iggy(980), and Bogut(1302)

While Otto played most of his minutes with:
Beal, Gortat, Kieff, Wall, Oubre

You read that right. Otto played more minutes with Gortat and Kieff than he did John Wall over those two years...

Side note. Its another reason im interested in GSW picks in a few years. I think Klay is washed at 32 and two SERIOUS injuries.
I think he'll be Davis Bertans, but making 40M each of the next 3 years instead of 16M.

Otto Porter was incredible in 2016-17 & 2017-18. One of the top 10 3's in the league both years. The only problem with Porter was that his body gave out. He was playing quite well again this year (though not at the level of those years) but once again an injury shut him down.

Klay Thompson was never nearly as good as people claimed he was. Certainly an outstanding defender, however.

[payitforward]

Interesting discussion of Centers.

I'm in the "Get Bamba" group.

OTOH, I don't want to give up Troy Brown. So...

[payitforward]

Can the Wizards get a starting C w/o giving up a 1st round pick, Avdija or Hachimura?

Troy Brown Jr, Moritz Wagner, Issac Bonga, expirings like Lopez or Ish. Does this amount to anything?

I don’t think the Zards should be pressed about getting a starting center. The combo of Lopez, Wagner & Len are serviceable enough for this season and they get Bryant back next season.

Brown, Wagner, Bonga, etc. aren’t likely to get a quality center and I wouldn’t consider moving Deni, Rui or a first for anything but a first-rate center.

Serviceable? Serviceable doesn't win playoff games champ.

True enough -- but you seem to have missed Zards' point.

Unless you'd like to name the guy you think we can get using your asset list of Brown, Wagner, Bonga, Lopez & Ish?

Would you go so far as to throw in Gill?

[Ruzious]

Imagine if Otto made more than 2 3's per 36 minutes for us - or if he made 2 foul shots per 36.

[NatP4]

Is there a list of young athletic Cs that teams gave up on during their rookie contract, that eventually became impactful defensive players?

Feels like we are going to have to draft this guy, yet we refuse to use a pick on an athletic rim protecting C. Last 3 drafts, Williams, Clarke, and Stewart/Achiuwa were all available at our draft position.

[pcbothwel]

Interesting discussion of Centers.

I'm in the "Get Bamba" group.

OTOH, I don't want to give up Troy Brown. So...

Keeping Brown and adding Bamba does have its issues.
Thats 8 players for ~126M when the Tax is at 136.6M.
That means we'd have 10M to sign our draft pick and resign Bonga/Mathews/Winston...maybe Wagner.
- Pick 8 = 5M and pick 14 = 3.5M... Call it 4M
- So now its 6M to resign our FA.

I just dont see it. Best move clearly seems to be to move Bertans to Boston for the TPE and Williams.
It would be Bertans + Robinson for TPE. Neto for Williams.
*** Robinson is added to pump up TPE amount from 15M to 19M. Neto give them legit PG depth after Teague failure.

[nate33]

Is there a list of young athletic Cs that teams gave up on during their rookie contract, that eventually became impactful defensive players?

Feels like we are going to have to draft this guy, yet we refuse to use a pick on an athletic rim protecting C. Last 3 drafts, Williams, Clarke, and Stewart/Achiuwa were all available at our draft position.

Richaun Holmes?
Nerlens Noel?
Bismack Biyombo became a pretty good rim protector, though he happened to hit free agency in 2016 when everyone got overpaid.

Harry Giles and Mo Bamba look like the next guys that should be available. I don't see Portland or Orlando paying to keep them as backups.

Wendell Carter might be available, but it will probably cost a lot to deter Chicago from matching.

[nate33]

Interesting discussion of Centers.

I'm in the "Get Bamba" group.

OTOH, I don't want to give up Troy Brown. So...

Keeping Brown and adding Bamba does have its issues.
Thats 8 players for ~126M when the Tax is at 136.6M.
That means we'd have 10M to sign our draft pick and resign Bonga/Mathews/Winston...maybe Wagner.
- Pick 8 = 5M and pick 14 = 3.5M... Call it 4M
- So now its 6M to resign our FA.

I just dont see it. Best move clearly seems to be to move Bertans to Boston for the TPE and Williams.
It would be Bertans + Robinson for TPE. Neto for Williams.
*** Robinson is added to pump up TPE amount from 15M to 19M. Neto give them legit PG depth after Teague failure.

I don't know if Boston will be thrilled with that Robinson part. I think they'd rather hang onto as much as that TPE as possible to use on another acquisition.

So just a straight up Bertans for Williams makes sense to me. They can have Len or Lopez if they want, it's up to them.

I really like it for us. Williams is potentially a core piece going forward, and dumping Bertans solves some long term salary issues. And I'd like to see Avdija play more minutes at PF where I think he's a more natural fit, which would open up some time for Troy Brown to get another shot at SF. The resulting team is more athletic, cheaper, and younger. The loss of Bertans' shooting will hurt, but let's face it, we haven't really had Bertans' shooting all year anyhow.

[pcbothwel]

Is there a list of young athletic Cs that teams gave up on during their rookie contract, that eventually became impactful defensive players?

Feels like we are going to have to draft this guy, yet we refuse to use a pick on an athletic rim protecting C. Last 3 drafts, Williams, Clarke, and Stewart/Achiuwa were all available at our draft position.

Wood, WCS, Noel, Holmes... I feel like you can find them quite often so long as you keep them in their lane. They need 3-5 years to realize not to try to block everything in the air and not attempt a sloppy post move.

[nate33]

Is there a list of young athletic Cs that teams gave up on during their rookie contract, that eventually became impactful defensive players?

Feels like we are going to have to draft this guy, yet we refuse to use a pick on an athletic rim protecting C. Last 3 drafts, Williams, Clarke, and Stewart/Achiuwa were all available at our draft position.

Wood, WCS, Noel, Holmes... I feel like you can find them quite often so long as you keep them in their lane. They need 3-5 years to realize not to try to block everything in the air and not attempt a sloppy post move.

Yeah, and it's better to let them develop on someone else's dime, than just steal them after 4 years of development.

[NatP4]

I don’t know. Read what the Orlando board is saying about Bamba. Kinda scary

I think a win now team like Boston is more likely to give up actual young talent than a team like Orlando.

[DCZards]

I don't know if Boston will be thrilled with that Robinson part. I think they'd rather hang onto as much as that TPE as possible to use on another acquisition.

So just a straight up Bertans for Williams makes sense to me. They can have Len or Lopez if they want, it's up to them.

I really like it for us. Williams is potentially a core piece going forward, and dumping Bertans solves some long term salary issues. And I'd like to see Avdija play more minutes at PF where I think he's a more natural fit, which would open up some time for Troy Brown to get another shot at SF. The resulting team is more athletic, cheaper, and younger. The loss of Bertans' shooting will hurt, but let's face it, we haven't really had Bertans' shooting all year anyhow.

Why does this work for Boston? They may also see Williams as potentially a core piece going forward and I'm sure the Celts are well aware that, at least right now, Bertans is an overpaid, inconsistent 3pt shooter...whose only real contribution is 3pt shooting.

[payitforward]

Yeah, and it's better to let them develop on someone else's dime, then just steal them after 4 years of development.

Well, certainly -- but to believe that, it'd be nice to look at other cases. The obvious example of as it were the other side of the coin is Jarrett Allen. Or Capela. These guys get paid real $$.

Moving Bertans would be the key.

[NatP4]

it’s funny. Celtics fans all want Stevens gone. They think the team needs serious help on the wing. They lack any shooting beyond Tatum&Brown. A lot of them want Harrison Barnes or Evan Fournier. I think Bertans is a perfect fit for them. It really depends on whether or not they get a new GM and try to halfway rebuild and offload contracts, or double down and try to win now.

They are in a tougher spot than people realize with the Kemba&Thompson contracts. Maybe we can hire Stevens at the end of the season as well.