Official Trade Thread -- Part XL

[gambitx777]

I mean maybe you trade westbrook and hope you can reform him, maybe flip Bertans for ball later on if you can but idk that's a big risk his D has been awful this year
Maybe he can be fixed and he is something special but that's a lot of money for what he's giving now. Less than westbrook but still. I can't see them wanting any part of putting luka with westy .

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No they're not. No chance. None.

We can't afford him and he's a terrible fit. This tweet is pure fiction. I guarantee it.

The only way it could happen is if we traded Westbrook for him.

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[pcbothwel]

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No they're not. No chance. None.

We can't afford him and he's a terrible fit. This tweet is pure fiction. I guarantee it.

The only way it could happen is if we traded Westbrook for him.

Bertans, Lopez, Ish, Robinson = $32M
KP, Hinton, Terry = 31M

I’ll even throw in TBJ

[BigA]

That 5 game win streak means the Wizards are shifting to win-now mode. Ted and Tommy need to push their chips to the middle of the table. Think what a package of Bertans+Lopez+Rui+TBJ+Ish+a future 1st could yield. I hear Blake Griffin is available.

[pcbothwel]

Turner is the best rim protector in the league and only 24. Under contract for 3 years at a solid $. It’s gonna take some serious assets.

What makes you call Turner "the best rim protector in the league?"

If you don't have a specific answer, don't give him any more "best" titles.

If you think it's b/c he blocks a lot of shots, make an actual, specific statistical connection between blocked shots & holding down the opponents scoring percentage on possessions.

If you can't do that (& you can't), then stop over-valuing blocked shots.

Myles Turner is a good defensive Center. He's not worth what he's paid, & I sure as H*ll don't feel like giving up assets to take him off Indy's hands.

Myles Turner is having a career year scoring the ball -- I mean by far his best ever! Not only that, but if he improves only a little bit more, he'll be as good as Garrison Mathews.

PIF... Let me say two things:
1) I was NOT a fan of the Turner trade proposals this last offseason. I believed he was overrated as a defender and not very efficient.
2) While I've given you credit before for simplifying game/season analysis by breaking it down by possession, you seem to get stuck in your mindset about what a player has done. This shows itself in the Rui conversations, but we can save that for another day.

Myles Turner is unique player. Offensively, he can spread the floor and be a low usage stretch 5 that allows elite guards (Russ and Beal) to get to the rim. When he doesnt shoot the 3, he does well at finishing at the rim. This is similar to Thomas Bryant in some ways... But, Turner is in another league defensively. You asked for Nate to give you some stats that arent just blocks. Well, he is an ELITE shot blocker, so throwing that stat out and harping on rebounds is a bit disingenuous of you... but ok.

1) Blocks: Turner Leads the league in blocks by a country Mile in every conceivable way. Im talking Blocks/game, blocks/36, blocks/possession, and even BLK%... The closest player in all those categories (Noel, Gobert, Boucher, etc.) are all at least 10% lower...

2) Rim Protection: Turner leads the league in PTS saved at the rim and shots contested at the rim. 2nd in both these categories is Gobert.

3) Steals: Among Centers, Turner is top 5 in most all Steals stats (STL%, Steals/game, Steals/Possession, etc).

4) Rollup/Plus Minus: Now, I know you always are quick to point out that people dont fully comprehend stats like RPM and RAPTOR. So Ill give context about other players in the same range and you can make your own judgement.
Top 7 DRPM: Gobert, Poeltl, Capela, Wood, Beverley, Turner, Conley
Top 7 RAPTOR DEF: Poeltl, Gobert, Capela, Turner, Wood, Conley, Embiid


Now. He is paid 18M each of the next two years after this one. What kind of value does that hold? We can discuss, but his defensive aptitude is not up for debate.

[Ruzious]

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No they're not. No chance. None.

We can't afford him and he's a terrible fit. This tweet is pure fiction. I guarantee it.

The only way it could happen is if we traded Westbrook for him.

Bertans, Lopez, Ish, Robinson = $32M
KP, Hinton, Terry = 31M

I’ll even throw in TBJ

I've always thought Porz was overrated, but he's become a good player - and he's obviously talented. Dallas can get better than that. And I doubt they throw away Terry this quickly - much less Hinton. If Tommy could make that trade, he'd be named GM of the year.

[nate33]

A really good scenario would be to pull off the Bertans for Robert Williams trade (throwing in Lopez if they want him).

Then we make the play-in game and end up getting to the first round of the playoffs.

In the summer, we still draft in the 7-9 position (unless we get a top 4 in the lottery) and end up with Jared Butler. We sign Mathews for 3 years, $9M. That would leave us with the following roster next year:

PG Westbrook/Butler
SG Beal/Mathews
SF ?????/Brown
PF Hachimura/Avdija
C Williams/Bryant

That's 9 guys at a cost of $113M.

We use the full MLE on a young, athletic SF. (Interestingly, two of the better options are Otto Porter and Kelly Oubre.) That's a pretty good 10-man rotation! It's much younger, more athletic, and more defensive-minded with the additions of Williams, Oubre and Butler. And the payroll is only $123M so there's room to try and retain Wagner for maybe $4M a year plus a few Neto-caliber veterans for the vet minimum. (Having a backup center signed long term would be good because we might end up letting Bryant walk in 2022 to keep the balance sheet clean for new contracts for Williams and Hachimura in upcoming years.)

The only flaw in the plan is finding that starting caliber 3&D SF for the MLE. Everyone is looking for that guy, and there aren't a lot of options in free agency. I mentioned Oubre and Porter. There's also Will Barton, Derrick Jones Jr., and Reggie Bullock. Worst case is we sign a stopgap for 1 year and have him and Troy Brown compete for the spot. Or we could start Avdija at SF and look for a veteran stopgap backup PF, which might be easier to find.

[NatP4]

Yeah, read Ainge’s comments. Boston is super desperate. The guy literally said the roster isn’t good enough and that they need to add scoring and will at the deadline. When he described what they are looking for, Bertans matched the description perfectly.

He did say that he would rather use the TPE in the off-season than at the deadline though.

Edit: here is the thread of his comments. A panic move is coming

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[NatP4]

We use the full MLE on a young, athletic SF. (Interestingly, two of the better options are Otto Porter and Kelly Oubre.) That's a pretty good 10-man rotation! It's much younger, more athletic, and more defensive-minded with the additions of Williams, Oubre and Butler. And the payroll is only $123M so there's room to try and retain Wagner for maybe $4M a year. (Having a backup center signed long term would be good because we might end up letting Bryant walk in 2022 to keep the balance sheet clean for new contracts for Williams and Hachimura in upcoming years.)

The only flaw in the plan is finding that starting caliber 3&D SF for the MLE. Everyone is looking for that guy, and there aren't a lot of options in free agency. I mentioned Oubre and Porter. There's also Will Barton, Derrick Jones Jr., and Reggie Bullock. Worst case is we sign a stopgap for 1 year and have him and Troy Brown compete for the spot. Or we could start Avdija at SF and look for a veteran stopgap backup PF, which might be easier to find.

Plenty of options there. We could continue to start Mathews&Beal together, Butler can play the 2. We could re sign Bonga. Avdija could start at the 3 obviously. I think re signing Wagner should be a priority.

That’s my ideal scenario overall though. Butler will be one of the best players from the class when it’s all said and done. Bertans&Williams swap would be a dream.

[nate33]

I think re signing Wagner should be a priority.

How much would you pay for him? Factor that Bryant is on the books for $10M next year, and Robert Williams would be due for a significant raise - in 2022 if he pans out as a starting center.

I'd love to keep him for 3-years $12M or something like that. But if someone else comes along with MLE type money, I don't think it's wise to match that. We're just not in position to pay a backup $10M a year.

Another complication is that we waived our RFA rights. We have no rights to match. Wagner can do what he wants. Will he want to stay here and be the 3rd string center behind Williams and Bryant?

[NatP4]

I think re signing Wagner should be a priority.

How much would you pay for him? Factor that Bryant is on the books for $10M next year, and Robert Williams would be due for a significant raise - in 2022 if he pans out as a starting center.

I'd love to keep him for 3-years $12M or something like that. But if someone else comes along with MLE type money, I don't think it's wise to match that. We're just not in position to pay a backup $10M a year.

Another complication is that we waived our RFA rights. We have no rights to match. Wagner can do what he wants. Will he want to stay here and be the 3rd string center behind Williams and Bryant?

Wagner seems to love playing for the wizards, but yeah I agree, something like 3 years 9-12 million, maybe a little more. I wouldn’t go over 5 million per. Declining his option probably hurt his overall value honestly.

Something tells me that we won’t see Thomas Bryant in a wizards jersey again.

[nate33]

Yeah, read Ainge’s comments. Boston is super desperate. The guy literally said the roster isn’t good enough and that they need to add scoring and will at the deadline. When he described what they are looking for, Bertans matched the description perfectly.

He did say that he would rather use the TPE in the off-season than at the deadline though.

A Bertans for Williams trade would eat away $13M of their 28.5M TPE. They could throw in a filler contract to reduce that hit, but they don't really have many. I suppose including Langford's $3.6M contract might make some sense, and get that TPE hit down to just $9.4M.

[nate33]

Something tells me that we won’t see Thomas Bryant in a wizards jersey again.

He is under contract for another year. I think the team really likes him as a personality, but they may be wising up to the fact that you just can't win with a center who doesn't protect the rim. I wouldn't be surprised if they looked to move him, but I doubt it will happen until he first proves that his knee is okay.

So I think we will see him in uniform at least at the start of next year. But I think it's very possible we won't see him in a uniform after Summer 2022.

[Ruzious]

Yeah, read Ainge’s comments. Boston is super desperate. The guy literally said the roster isn’t good enough and that they need to add scoring and will at the deadline. When he described what they are looking for, Bertans matched the description perfectly.

He did say that he would rather use the TPE in the off-season than at the deadline though.

A Bertans for Williams trade would eat away $13M of their 28.5M TPE. They could throw in a filler contract to reduce that hit, but they don't really have many. I suppose including Langford's $3.6M contract might make some sense, and get that TPE hit down to just $9.4M.

Correct me if I'm wrong - which I probably am. I assume the TPE doesn't protect them from the lux tax. According to Spotrac, they're just shy of 13.5 mil under the lux tax threshold. Bertans has a 15 mil cap number. So Langford works, but so does Nesmith - who makes close to what Langford does. Nesmith's having a typical rookie bad season, but I'd like to steal him rather than settle for Langford. I think part of the reason Nesmith's been bad is he's rusty - returning from a major injury. I don't think we can get Williams, but maybe we can if we add in Troy Brown (or Wagner plus a 2nd). That would still keep Boston under the lux tax.

[nate33]

Yeah, read Ainge’s comments. Boston is super desperate. The guy literally said the roster isn’t good enough and that they need to add scoring and will at the deadline. When he described what they are looking for, Bertans matched the description perfectly.

He did say that he would rather use the TPE in the off-season than at the deadline though.

A Bertans for Williams trade would eat away $13M of their 28.5M TPE. They could throw in a filler contract to reduce that hit, but they don't really have many. I suppose including Langford's $3.6M contract might make some sense, and get that TPE hit down to just $9.4M.

Correct me if I'm wrong - which I probably am. I assume the TPE doesn't protect them from the lux tax. According to Spotrac, they're just shy of 13.5 mil under the lux tax threshold. Bertans has a 15 mil cap number. So Langford works, but so does Nesmith - who makes close to what Langford does. Nesmith's having a typical rookie bad season, but I'd like to steal him rather than settle for Langford. I think part of the reason Nesmith's been bad is he's rusty - returning from a major injury. I don't think we can get Williams, but maybe we can if we add in Troy Brown (or Wagner plus a 2nd). That would still keep Boston under the lux tax.

You're not wrong. The TPE does not protect them from the luxtax.

However, if they trade Williams for Bertans, then that's just a $13M salary addition and they'd still end up below the luxtax.

As far as Nesmith versus Langford, I'd take either one. But I feel like Boston has totally soured on Langford whereas they'll probably want Nesmith to get some more time before giving up on him.

I'd include Brown if that's what it took to get Williams. I don't really think they want him though. They've already got a guy like him (versatile guard/forward with suspect shot) in Marcus Smart, only Smart is also an elite defender.

I really do think that Bertans would be a big help for them. He's exactly what they need - a guy who can make offense easier for everyone else without actually taking the ball away from Kemba, Tatum and Brown. And in the short term, losing Williams doesn't hurt them much because they don't really play him anyway.

[Ruzious]

Right, I just don't think they want to trade Williams. Granted, they don't start him, but I think they see him as their starting center of the future.

[NatP4]

Right, I just don't think they want to trade Williams. Granted, they don't start him, but I think they see him as their starting center of the future.

Maybe so, but they are a total mess right now. Ainge&Stevens are on the way out. The team is seriously underperforming. They made huge mistakes on the Thompson&Kemba deals. It’s not a situation that is all that dissimilar to our own actually. There is no doubt that they will be trading assets at the deadline for immediate help. We might be a good match, and Bertans is exactly what they are looking for. I would ask for that 1st round pick if Williams is off the table.

For Boston, it’s either Stevens&Ainge are gone, and they have to attach assets to Kemba to move him in the off-season and punt on this year, or desperate win now moves from Ainge to try and salvage this season and his job.

[Ruzious]

Right, I just don't think they want to trade Williams. Granted, they don't start him, but I think they see him as their starting center of the future.

Maybe so, but they are a total mess right now. Ainge&Stevens are on the way out. The team is seriously underperforming. They made huge mistakes on the Thompson&Kemba deals. It’s not a situation that is all that dissimilar to our own actually. There is no doubt that they will be trading assets at the deadline for immediate help. We might be a good match, and Bertans is exactly what they are looking for. I would ask for that 1st round pick if Williams is off the table.

Agreed. Does Bertans and TBJ for Nesmith and Boston's FRP make sense? We save a ton of money long-term - not just with Bertans leaving but also with Nesmith having 2 more years on his rookie deal than TBJ.

Edit - lol Ruz, you just pointed out Boston has 13.5 mil to hit the lux tax, and that would add over 13.5 mil to their salaries - putting them in lux tax. Of course, Boston's not going to do that, doof.

[gambitx777]

Not sure if we could get a first but this makes sense
Boston : Bertans
WIZ: Grant Williams (not the same williams mentioned in posts above), Jeff teague, Aaron Nesmith and a future second. (The second is negotiable but also probably seems fair, it's a maybe).

This works for both teams
For Boston it adds the potential 3 pt cannon they are looking for off the bench, and clears some dead space for the buy out market that's gonna be packed this year. Also they still have a good piece of that trade exception to burn.

Both teams stay well under the tax and for the wizards it opens them up to do some stuff.

They can then cut Gill, Robinson and ish Smith. Three guys that just don't contribute to winning ball for us And replace two of them with better, younger versions. As for teague we can flip him to a team in need of a pg or cut him and make room for a buy out market guy of our own .

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[nate33]

Not sure if we could get a first but this makes sense
Boston : Bertans
WIZ: Grant Williams (not the same williams mentioned in posts above), Jeff teague, Aaron Nesmith and a future second. (The second is negotiable but also probably seems fair, it's a maybe).

This works for both teams

I don't see how this works for us. What is our motivation?

[gambitx777]

A few things actually.
#1 It gets us under the tax enough to make use of our trade exceptions(1.6,1.6,1.0), DPE (4.1) and the buy out market. That dpe that I think we are granted for bryant is important because a lot of teams can't offer more than vet mins to buy out guys.
#2 upgrades. we get to rid our team of robinson (Buy out) and upgrade him with Nesmith, Ive liked Aaron Nesmith for a long time. Grant Williams is a smidge better than gill and he's 22 not 28.
#3 we get out from under Bertans money moving forward.
#4 we get more burn for guys like deni and Rui, who I believe can replace Bertans if given the chance.
#5 a possible second round pick. Which is always nice! I didn't put a year on it cuz they celtics have a few extras and it doesn't really matter.
#6 teague while washed as he may be is just cap filler and a place holder a cut candidate

Not sure if we could get a first but this makes sense
Boston : Bertans
WIZ: Grant Williams (not the same williams mentioned in posts above), Jeff teague, Aaron Nesmith and a future second. (The second is negotiable but also probably seems fair, it's a maybe).

This works for both teams

I don't see how this works for us. What is our motivation?

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