2021 NBA Draft

[pad300]

Ok, it's time to ask, and it's going to annoy some people:

Should Alperen Sengun be in the top 5?
Yes, displacing 1 of cade/mobley/suggs/kuminga/green or making it a top 6, however you want to count it.

Production counts... He's the MVP of the Turkish league, at 18. That's a pro men's league. No, it's not the best non-nba league in the world (see Luka in the Spanish league), but IMO, it's a better competition level than the NCAA and the G league. He's 3ed in PPG,2nd in RPG, 1st in BPG ( and PER, FIC, & WS) (he's in the top 10 in a lot of other stats too, like FG%) , and he's only averaging 28 mpg (36th in the league).

[Ruzious]

Top 10 for sure, imo.

[babyjax13]

Ok, it's time to ask, and it's going to annoy some people:

Should Alperen Sengun be in the top 5?
Yes, displacing 1 of cade/mobley/suggs/kuminga/green or making it a top 6, however you want to count it.

Production counts... He's the MVP of the Turkish league, at 18. That's a pro men's league. No, it's not the best non-nba league in the world (see Luka in the Spanish league), but IMO, it's a better competition level than the NCAA and the G league. He's 3ed in PPG,2nd in RPG, 1st in BPG ( and PER, FIC, & WS) (he's in the top 10 in a lot of other stats too, like FG%) , and he's only averaging 28 mpg (36th in the league).

I've only been able to watch him in highlights and I assume they must not do him justice? He looks like a fine center with nice hands that is competent on both ends, and that's about it. What is he doing in games that is really impressive?

[TheSuzerain]

Ok, it's time to ask, and it's going to annoy some people:

Should Alperen Sengun be in the top 5?
Yes, displacing 1 of cade/mobley/suggs/kuminga/green or making it a top 6, however you want to count it.

Production counts... He's the MVP of the Turkish league, at 18. That's a pro men's league. No, it's not the best non-nba league in the world (see Luka in the Spanish league), but IMO, it's a better competition level than the NCAA and the G league. He's 3ed in PPG,2nd in RPG, 1st in BPG ( and PER, FIC, & WS) (he's in the top 10 in a lot of other stats too, like FG%) , and he's only averaging 28 mpg (36th in the league).

I've only been able to watch him in highlights and I assume they must not do him justice? He looks like a fine center with nice hands that is competent on both ends, and that's about it. What is he doing in games that is really impressive?

Are we watching the same highlights? He's putting guys in the torture chamber around the basket with fakes and footwork.

[babyjax13]

Ok, it's time to ask, and it's going to annoy some people:

Should Alperen Sengun be in the top 5?
Yes, displacing 1 of cade/mobley/suggs/kuminga/green or making it a top 6, however you want to count it.

Production counts... He's the MVP of the Turkish league, at 18. That's a pro men's league. No, it's not the best non-nba league in the world (see Luka in the Spanish league), but IMO, it's a better competition level than the NCAA and the G league. He's 3ed in PPG,2nd in RPG, 1st in BPG ( and PER, FIC, & WS) (he's in the top 10 in a lot of other stats too, like FG%) , and he's only averaging 28 mpg (36th in the league).

I've only been able to watch him in highlights and I assume they must not do him justice? He looks like a fine center with nice hands that is competent on both ends, and that's about it. What is he doing in games that is really impressive?

Are we watching the same highlights? He's putting guys in the torture chamber around the basket with fakes and footwork.

But how many centers make an NBA career now out of being postup bullies? It's not many. Maybe I'm completely underestimating how valuable that skillset will be, though, but I can imagine him getting absolutely abused by a disciplined defender (and again, maybe I'm completely underrating how good he is with his footwork --- but I remember falling in love w/Willy Hernangomez for the same reason, and it just was not the kind of skill that turned him into a viable NBA starter).

[nolang1]

I've only been able to watch him in highlights and I assume they must not do him justice? He looks like a fine center with nice hands that is competent on both ends, and that's about it. What is he doing in games that is really impressive?

Are we watching the same highlights? He's putting guys in the torture chamber around the basket with fakes and footwork.

But how many centers make an NBA career now out of being postup bullies? It's not many. Maybe I'm completely underestimating how valuable that skillset will be, though, but I can imagine him getting absolutely abused by a disciplined defender (and again, maybe I'm completely underrating how good he is with his footwork --- but I remember falling in love w/Willy Hernangomez for the same reason, and it just was not the kind of skill that turned him into a viable NBA starter).

The simplest answer to that would be that Sengun is 18 and Hernangomez was 21 in the pre-draft highlights of his you would’ve been watching. Sengun’s free throw rate is a good deal higher than Wily’s has been at any point, so I think you could also say that the footwork is at another level. He has A+ hands where his teammates are able to rifle the ball in there off the pick and roll and be confident he’ll catch it and make a play, and he has an elite handle for a big that he can use to self-create post-up opportunities by dribbling in from 15+ feet.

Also without doing a tl;dr in-depth breakdown, I hope it will suffice to say that if one player were just 10% better at every aspect of the game than another, you would expect that to have some multiplicative effect rather than player A simply being 10% better than player B. Especially in cases concerning players who are better on one side of the ball and the extra versatility to their game makes them playable in more lineups because their weaknesses aren’t as glaring of a liability.

[TheSuzerain]

I've only been able to watch him in highlights and I assume they must not do him justice? He looks like a fine center with nice hands that is competent on both ends, and that's about it. What is he doing in games that is really impressive?

Are we watching the same highlights? He's putting guys in the torture chamber around the basket with fakes and footwork.

But how many centers make an NBA career now out of being postup bullies? It's not many. Maybe I'm completely underestimating how valuable that skillset will be, though, but I can imagine him getting absolutely abused by a disciplined defender (and again, maybe I'm completely underrating how good he is with his footwork --- but I remember falling in love w/Willy Hernangomez for the same reason, and it just was not the kind of skill that turned him into a viable NBA starter).

That's a different critique from your original post where you said "he looks competent". I just mean to say that it's pretty obvious what is impressive about his game. He has elite footwork and craft around the hoop. How it will translate to the modern game remains to be seen, but this isn't an issue where a prospect has no outlier aspects to their game. Sengun seemingly has some outlier talents.

[Ruzious]

Ok, it's time to ask, and it's going to annoy some people:

Should Alperen Sengun be in the top 5?
Yes, displacing 1 of cade/mobley/suggs/kuminga/green or making it a top 6, however you want to count it.

Production counts... He's the MVP of the Turkish league, at 18. That's a pro men's league. No, it's not the best non-nba league in the world (see Luka in the Spanish league), but IMO, it's a better competition level than the NCAA and the G league. He's 3ed in PPG,2nd in RPG, 1st in BPG ( and PER, FIC, & WS) (he's in the top 10 in a lot of other stats too, like FG%) , and he's only averaging 28 mpg (36th in the league).

I've only been able to watch him in highlights and I assume they must not do him justice? He looks like a fine center with nice hands that is competent on both ends, and that's about it. What is he doing in games that is really impressive?

He's only made a few 3's, but one of the highlights showed him making a picture-perfect corner step-back 3. He's been so ridiculously effective that he hasn't been asked to do much more offensively than score inside, but I suspect he's developing other skills. Also, there were some outstanding passes out of the double to open shooters - that he made as the doubles were coming to him - the anticipation was a great sign. And this kid's still going to be 18 on draft day.

[babyjax13]

Ok, it's time to ask, and it's going to annoy some people:

Should Alperen Sengun be in the top 5?
Yes, displacing 1 of cade/mobley/suggs/kuminga/green or making it a top 6, however you want to count it.

Production counts... He's the MVP of the Turkish league, at 18. That's a pro men's league. No, it's not the best non-nba league in the world (see Luka in the Spanish league), but IMO, it's a better competition level than the NCAA and the G league. He's 3ed in PPG,2nd in RPG, 1st in BPG ( and PER, FIC, & WS) (he's in the top 10 in a lot of other stats too, like FG%) , and he's only averaging 28 mpg (36th in the league).

I've only been able to watch him in highlights and I assume they must not do him justice? He looks like a fine center with nice hands that is competent on both ends, and that's about it. What is he doing in games that is really impressive?

He's only made a few 3's, but one of the highlights showed him making a picture-perfect corner step-back 3. He's been so ridiculously effective that he hasn't been asked to do much more offensively than score inside, but I suspect he's developing other skills. Also, there were some outstanding passes out of the double to open shooters - that he made as the doubles were coming to him - the anticipation was a great sign. And this kid's still going to be 18 on draft day.

His passing is impressive. I will have to see if there is a way for me to catch a game, thank you everyone for the insightful comments!

[BoyzNTheHood]

Can someone explain Quentin Grimes to me? Every time I watch him he looks like the smoothest prospect since Jayson Tatum to me, and then I check his stats and it's underwhelming as hell.

[EMG518]

I haven't been following the draft a ton. I have to ask. Is Cade still the consensus #1 for the majority. I just watched highlights from a game for Kuminga and I don't see how I could take Cade over him.

[clyde21]

Can someone explain Quentin Grimes to me? Every time I watch him he looks like the smoothest prospect since Jayson Tatum to me, and then I check his stats and it's underwhelming as hell.

i've been trying to understand him for 3 seasons now, at one point his freshmen year at Kansas I had him top five, theoretically speaking I love his prototype, combo guard with a handle, strong body, good looking mechanics, fluid athlete throughout who's is a + defender and can run a bit of offense, but there's something missing there from him mentally, maybe he's just not aggro enough, bbiq tends to be low, disappears for long stretches, i dunno, it's hard to point to one thing, but he's guy I've always liked but really have no clue where to slot him because of his inconsistent game.

it's like he improves on one thing but gets worse at another thing. love that his FT% has improved this year but his assist rate is down considerably and he is shooting slightly worse than last year, he really just hasn't been able to put it all together for long stretches and it's frustrating as a QG fan.

that said, IF he does (and I still have some hope for him) get some connective tissue between all of his peripheral skills, brings his fundementals up to where he can consistently contribute, I think he can make some noise but he just has to get the intangibles part of the game down because right now that's his biggest obstacle.

[karkinos]

Can someone explain Quentin Grimes to me? Every time I watch him he looks like the smoothest prospect since Jayson Tatum to me, and then I check his stats and it's underwhelming as hell.

the advanced stats show continued improvement in areas that really matter.

the % doesn't look good for the superficial stats, but reading between the line, the eye test matches up with the analytics
continued trend of improving PER, OWS, DWS, ORtg, DRtg, BPM...i think he's still a great prospect and good scouts know it too imo.

could his decision making be better? sure. but not everyone is born ready out the gate so we have to give credit to those that show continued overall improvement.

[Ruzious]

Can someone explain Quentin Grimes to me? Every time I watch him he looks like the smoothest prospect since Jayson Tatum to me, and then I check his stats and it's underwhelming as hell.

the advanced stats show continued improvement in areas that really matter.

the % doesn't look good for the superficial stats, but reading between the line, the eye test matches up with the analytics
continued trend of improving PER, OWS, DWS, ORtg, DRtg, BPM...i think he's still a great prospect and good scouts know it too imo.

could his decision making be better? sure. but not everyone is born ready out the gate so we have to give credit to those that show continued overall improvement.

Along with what Clyde mentioned, his 2 point shooting percentage has gone down from 53.8% to 40.6%, but his 3 point shooting has dramatically improved both in % and number of 3's taken. Overall, the changes in 2's and 3's virtually offset each other in his TS% - down from .542 to .539, but he is scoring 4 more points per 40 minutes. I guess the question is - Why has his shooting percentage on 2's gone down so dramatically, and can he fix it - perhaps by taking fewer long 2's? A good thing - his rebounding has gone way up.

[karkinos]

god the long 2s with this guy
he grew up watching 90s basketball for sure lol

[TheSuzerain]

Grimes was so bad as a freshman that I had him pegged as a non prospect. Seems like his shooting has come around a bit from 3. Is he still unathletic?

[No-Man]

Grimes was so bad as a freshman that I had him pegged as a non prospect. Seems like his shooting has come around a bit from 3. Is he still unathletic?

yes, his burst is truly bad

he is going to be good in Europe though, makes a ton of sense here as a player

[clyde21]

Can someone explain Quentin Grimes to me? Every time I watch him he looks like the smoothest prospect since Jayson Tatum to me, and then I check his stats and it's underwhelming as hell.

the advanced stats show continued improvement in areas that really matter.

the % doesn't look good for the superficial stats, but reading between the line, the eye test matches up with the analytics
continued trend of improving PER, OWS, DWS, ORtg, DRtg, BPM...i think he's still a great prospect and good scouts know it too imo.

could his decision making be better? sure. but not everyone is born ready out the gate so we have to give credit to those that show continued overall improvement.

Along with what Clyde mentioned, his 2 point shooting percentage has gone down from 53.8% to 40.6%, but his 3 point shooting has dramatically improved both in % and number of 3's taken. Overall, the changes in 2's and 3's virtually offset each other in his TS% - down from .542 to .539, but he is scoring 4 more points per 40 minutes. I guess the question is - Why has his shooting percentage on 2's gone down so dramatically, and can he fix it - perhaps by taking fewer long 2's? A good thing - his rebounding has gone way up.

yea, it's been frustrating to watch because when he looks good he looks really good, but it's a bit of a whack a mole game with him, when he improves on one thing he gets worse at another, just hasn't been able to bridge all of his tools together at all into one consistent package.

i still like him and think at some point in the draft he's gonna provide real value (not sure where that is at this point right now), but as a jr he should be way more consistent than he has been there's no way around that.

[clyde21]

pretty convinced at this point that Jackson should be a lotto pick, if not top20, NBA profile across the board from tools to skill set.

[CoreyVillains]

Just dropped the Cade scouting vid. Just love watching the dude. Not perfect by any means but truly a great number one prospect in a loaded top 5.

Watch on YouTube