Official Trade Thread -- Part XL

[NatP4]

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[Frichuela]

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I agree with Quinton Mayo. Porzingis is a pipe dream..

A more realistic target is Mo Bamba...

[nate33]

I personally am not interested in Porzingis. I'd probably rather have Bertans at $15M playing 75 games a year than Porzingis at $31M playing 55 games a year.

[prime1time]

Porzingis on his current deal would doom the Wizards.

[gambitx777]

Even porzingis for westy would be pushing it in my opinion . Maybe if we did that and some how got lonzo ball form the pells that be an interesting team the unicorn can go


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[NatP4]

Bertans for Williams. Draft Wagner with our 1st. Buy an early 2nd and draft Duarte. Re sign Mathews/Bonga/Wagner. Promote Winston as backup PG. eventually move Bryant before he walks in FA.

Westbrook Winston
Beal Mathews Duarte
Avdija Brown Jr Bonga
Hachimura F Wagner
Williams Bryant M Wagner

[Ruzious]

Boston is 15-17 and playing Indiana tonight. Really no need for them to panic - seeing how bad the East is, but they're so used to winning - maybe they do make a panic move. Can't help wanting them to keep losing and see what they do about it.

[NatP4]

Boston is 15-17 and playing Indiana tonight. Really no need for them to panic - seeing how bad the East is, but they're so used to winning - maybe they do make a panic move. Can't help wanting them to keep losing and see what they do about it.

Scooping up Brad Stevens at the end of the season will be fun.

[nate33]

Boston is 15-17 and playing Indiana tonight. Really no need for them to panic - seeing how bad the East is, but they're so used to winning - maybe they do make a panic move. Can't help wanting them to keep losing and see what they do about it.

Scooping up Brad Stevens at the end of the season will be fun.

I'm hoping that either Brad Stevens, Rick Carlisle of Mike Buddenholzer become available this offseason. All are good coaches who may have lost their team. It happens to even the best coaches (except Pops and Spo). Eventually, players start to tune them out.

[NatP4]

Another player we could target would be Dieng. On an expiring deal, not playing very much for Memphis. We could probably send Ish/Lopez/Robinson and a protected future 2nd round pick.

Dieng is consistently underrated. Really good rim protector that would immediately be the best C on the team. He’s actually turned himself into a good 3pt shooter. Would help us tremendously on the defensive end and with rebounding.

[doclinkin]

I like Dieng. Since college he's been a target for me, except that for a time he was overpaid. If we could get him without giving up much, that would be a solid move. Even as an offseason pick up.

[Ruzious]

Boston is 15-17 and playing Indiana tonight. Really no need for them to panic - seeing how bad the East is, but they're so used to winning - maybe they do make a panic move. Can't help wanting them to keep losing and see what they do about it.

Scooping up Brad Stevens at the end of the season will be fun.

I'm hoping that either Brad Stevens, Rick Carlisle of Mike Buddenholzer become available this offseason. All are good coaches who may have lost their team. It happens to even the best coaches (except Pops and Spo). Eventually, players start to tune them out.

It's amazing how fans of those teams don't appreciate those coaches. There's a poll on the Bucks sight on replacing Coach Budd and more than half the voters want him to be replaced. Most of them are adament about it. I mean... the Bucks were not good at all before he got there, and they've been the best regular season team in basketball since he got there. They think he's a failure because they haven't won a championship - except when they think it's all Bledsoe's fault, and now - except when they think it's all Brook Lopez' fault.

[NatP4]

Scooping up Brad Stevens at the end of the season will be fun.

I'm hoping that either Brad Stevens, Rick Carlisle of Mike Buddenholzer become available this offseason. All are good coaches who may have lost their team. It happens to even the best coaches (except Pops and Spo). Eventually, players start to tune them out.

It's amazing how fans of those teams don't appreciate those coaches. There's a poll on the Bucks sight on replacing Coach Budd and more than half the voters want him to be replaced. Most of them are adament about it. I mean... the Bucks were not good at all before he got there, and they've been the best regular season team in basketball since he got there. They think he's a failure because they haven't won a championship - except when they think it's all Bledsoe's fault, and now - except when they think it's all Brook Lopez' fault.

I wonder what makes them so unhappy with Bud?

This is random, but two of my favorite college players of all time have the top net ratings and 1st&3rd ranked on/off differential on the bucks:

https://www.nba.com/stats/team/1610612749/onoffcourt-summary/?sort=DIFF_NET_RATING&dir=1

[payitforward]

Turner is the best rim protector in the league and only 24. Under contract for 3 years at a solid $. It’s gonna take some serious assets.

What makes you call Turner "the best rim protector in the league?"

If you don't have a specific answer, don't give him any more "best" titles.

If you think it's b/c he blocks a lot of shots, make an actual, specific statistical connection between blocked shots & holding down the opponents scoring percentage on possessions.

If you can't do that (& you can't), then stop over-valuing blocked shots.

Myles Turner is a good defensive Center. He's not worth what he's paid, & I sure as H*ll don't feel like giving up assets to take him off Indy's hands.

Myles Turner is having a career year scoring the ball -- I mean by far his best ever! Not only that, but if he improves only a little bit more, he'll be as good as Garrison Mathews.

PIF... Let me say two things:
1) I was NOT a fan of the Turner trade proposals this last offseason. I believed he was overrated as a defender and not very efficient.
2) While I've given you credit before for simplifying game/season analysis by breaking it down by possession, you seem to get stuck in your mindset about what a player has done. This shows itself in the Rui conversations, but we can save that for another day.

Myles Turner is unique player. Offensively, he can spread the floor and be a low usage stretch 5 that allows elite guards (Russ and Beal) to get to the rim. When he doesnt shoot the 3, he does well at finishing at the rim. This is similar to Thomas Bryant in some ways... But, Turner is in another league defensively. You asked for Nate to give you some stats that arent just blocks. Well, he is an ELITE shot blocker, so throwing that stat out and harping on rebounds is a bit disingenuous of you... but ok.

1) Blocks: Turner Leads the league in blocks by a country Mile in every conceivable way. Im talking Blocks/game, blocks/36, blocks/possession, and even BLK%... The closest player in all those categories (Noel, Gobert, Boucher, etc.) are all at least 10% lower...

2) Rim Protection: Turner leads the league in PTS saved at the rim and shots contested at the rim. 2nd in both these categories is Gobert.

3) Steals: Among Centers, Turner is top 5 in most all Steals stats (STL%, Steals/game, Steals/Possession, etc). ...

This is an interesting post; let's see whether I can say something useful in response.

1. Running regressions shows that, statistically, a blocked shot has about the same positive effect on game results as a defensive rebound -- so it's definitely useful for you to bring up blocks & boards together. If we combine Turner's defensive boards & blocks, he is comfortably above what an average NBA Center provides for that combination.

2. Running the same kind of regressions shows that, statistically, an offensive board has about the same positive effect on game results as a steal. In this case, although Turner is well above average in steals, he's so far below average in offensive boards that he is below what an average NBA Center provides for that combination.

Nonetheless, using those same regression results, if we look at the combination of all 4 of these numbers, Myles Turner is a little above average for an NBA big (a 4 or a 5).

Turner also turns the ball over less frequently than average for a Center. A TO has about the same amount of negative effect on game results as the positive effect of a steal (no surprise). Incorporate TOs, & Turner is a little more above average. Good.

Of course, if we're going to look at those numbers, then we're going to have to look at the rest of his numbers too. Right?

3. Running the same kind of regressions shows that, statistically, a foul has a negative effect on game results that's about the same as the positive effect of a defensive board. Turner commits fouls at an above average rate. That takes something away from the overall above average grade he got a few lines above.

4. Running the same kind of regressions shows that, statistically, an assist has about the same positive effect on game results as a defensive rebound or a blocked shot. Myles Turner is sufficiently below an average NBA big in assists that incorporating them with all the rest of the numbers above brings him down to below average.

That's all using this-season numbers. If we use career numbers, the result is just about the same. Overall, the numbers are below average.

Of course, we haven't looked at scoring in any of this. This year, Turner is having a career-best year as a scorer. He's a little below his career average in points, but he's way above his career average in efficiency, posting a TS% of almost .61. Still, neither this year nor on his career is he, overall, a particularly effective player.

Is this 100% definitive? No, it can't be. In particular, for example, look at blocked shots. Yes, we can determine their effect statistically overall, but that doesn't account for the fact that blocking a long 2-point attempt can't be as positive as blocking a shot at the rim.

The long FGA was probably not going in anyway, & it was probably going to result in a defensive board. The shot at the rim was far more likely to go in -- blocking that shot has more positive effect than an average block.

But, even taking that into account, it's hard to see why Myles Turner would be a special player.

[payitforward]

Now, let me turn to the last part of your assessment of Turner:

...4) Rollup/Plus Minus: Now, I know you always are quick to point out that people dont fully comprehend stats like RPM and RAPTOR. So Ill give context about other players in the same range and you can make your own judgement.
Top 7 DRPM: Gobert, Poeltl, Capela, Wood, Beverley, Turner, Conley
Top 7 RAPTOR DEF: Poeltl, Gobert, Capela, Turner, Wood, Conley, Embiid

Now. He is paid 18M each of the next two years after this one. What kind of value does that hold? We can discuss, but his defensive aptitude is not up for debate.

But... I have to make dinner -- so I'll have to come back in a bit to deal with this.

Ok, I'm back.

It's not that people "don't fully comprehend" e.g. RAPTOR, it's that there is zero support offered for why anyone should take it seriously. Moreover, it is not a metric based solely on on-court performance. I.e. if you take two different players who produce the same numbers, they will not necessarily rate the same in RAPTOR -- & therefore not in e.g. DRPM. Essentially, that means that you can't pull two players out & compare them using DRPM.

Now, this is not to say that either of them is grossly out of whack! For example, that is to be sure a list of good defensive players you point to. Moreover, Myles Turner is a good defensive player. If you prefer "very good," sure -- why not? "Excellent?" Again, I'm not going to argue the point. &, given Turner is a terrific defender -- even if the effect on game results of that terrific-ness can't easily be quantified with precision -- then, sure, it'd be great to have him as a Wizard.

As it would be great to have guys out of a sizable group. But, that leaves out too many other issues for anyone to say, "let's make Myles Turner a trade target."

Would I trade Bertans for him, straight up? Sure. Would I give multiple young players & draft picks for him? Absolutely not.

Right now, we have 7 guys w/ guaranteed contracts for next year. Add Turner, & we have 8 guys & are up against the luxury tax.

Trade Bryant, Brown & Bonga for Myles Turner, & we have 4 players for $117m. Add our R1 pick, & it's 5 players for @$122m. That is not how to build this or any team.

[payitforward]

I personally am not interested in Porzingis. I'd probably rather have Bertans at $15M playing 75 games a year than Porzingis at $31M playing 55 games a year.

Agreed -- & in fact, we'd be better off having Porzingis play 55 games than 75, as he helps you lose games not win them. He's a terrible player.

[payitforward]

I like Dieng. Since college he's been a target for me, except that for a time he was overpaid. If we could get him without giving up much, that would be a solid move. Even as an offseason pick up.

I like him too. But, I'm not giving much for a guy who is expiring & whom it seems his current team doesn't intend to keep. Sign him this Summer if he's cheap enough.

[NatP4]

Who wouldn’t trade Brown, Bonga, and Bryant for Myles Turner???

Every single team in the NBA would do that. That’s laughable.

[payitforward]

Try reading with your brain turned on, Nat. I'm sure you can do it. Here's what I wrote:

"Trade Bryant, Brown & Bonga for Myles Turner, & we have 4 players for $117m (i.e. next year). Add our R1 pick, & it's 5 players for @$122m."

All we'd need was 10 more players to fill out the roster. &, given a tax line somewhere around $136m, we'd have $14m to pay them with. Let's see... that's an average of $1.4m each.

& what was my next sentence? Oh yeah... "That's no way to build this or any team."

Since you find that laughable, why don't you explain how you'd go about making it work, ok?

[NatP4]

Fairly easy to fill 7 roster spots with 14 million. Most of the contending teams do it. Brooklyn/Philly/Milwaukee all pay 4 players over 100 mill

If you can trade Bonga, Brown, and Bryant for Turner, you do it and figure out the rest afterwards.