2021 Draft thread. Woo! 15th pick here we come! Hoo. Ray.

[payitforward]

Not only is Nat right about the Grizzlies, but it's even better than that: in all 3 of these cases -- Clarke, Tillman & Bane -- they actually made draft-day trades to acquire the guy they wanted. Which indicates that it's something more than either "pick the bpa" or "get lucky with a low pick."

&, who is this "they?" Who runs the Grizzlies

In 2019, the owner promoted Jason Wexler to team president. What's his background? Bachelor's degree in architecture & a law degree from Columbia.

At the same time, Zach Kleinman became executive vp of basketball operations (in effect, gm). He was 30 years old. Background? A law degree from Duke.

Their head coach, Taylor Jenkins, is 36 years old. Background? He went to Wharton & got a degree in Economics.

Commonalities?

1. Young
2. No ex-players
3. No "old hand" NBA types.
4. Background tells you they are smart -- they are thinkers.

You reading this, Ted? Hope so. Now read this: Grizzlies owner, Robert Pera, didn't try to "get in the running" for the biggest name in basketball management, Masai Ujiri.

[doclinkin]

The grizzlies have such an awesome roster. Seems like they have great talent evaluating ability, not a single bad player on the roster. They value defense&efficiency and young talent. Xavier Tillman is having an awesome year.

I had settled on a trade down for Saddiq Bey (40% from 3 at 5 shots a game) and Xavier Tillman (solid numbers in every category except 3fg%). The Mavericks (18, 31) wanted to trade up for Tyrese Halliburton. I could have had both plus future considerations.

I like Deni, but any time these cats do well I get the gripes. (Saddiq with a 30/12 game against Boston, and a 20/10/3a/1s vs the Bucks).

I would build a very different team than this front office. Different priorities. Defense and rebounding first at all positions. Especially up front. I want bigs who can rack steals, D boards, and assists -- I need smart heads-up Bigs who can captain a defense and lead from the pivot on offense and the rear line on D. Then guards who post high ratios of FTA/FGAs, low TO numbers. Guards are your ball handlers and motion players, fouls on other teams mean extra possessions and clock control. Then add my rangy 3&D wings who can cover inside/out, set screens, run back door, hit open shots from outside.

[NatP4]

And in a few months, they will add Jaden Springer to that group. Take it to the bank. Talk about an organization moving in the total opposite direction from everything the wizards are doing.

See ya, guys. Submitting my Grizzlies fan application.

[NatP4]

The grizzlies have such an awesome roster. Seems like they have great talent evaluating ability, not a single bad player on the roster. They value defense&efficiency and young talent. Xavier Tillman is having an awesome year.

I had settled on a trade down for Saddiq Bey (40% from 3 at 5 shots a game) and Xavier Tillman (solid numbers in every category except 3fg%). The Mavericks (18, 31) wanted to trade up for Tyrese Halliburton. I could have had both plus future considerations.

I like Deni, but any time these cats do well I get the gripes. (Saddiq with a 30/12 game against Boston, and a 20/10/3a/1s vs the Bucks).

I would build a very different team than this front office. Different priorities. Defense and rebounding first at all positions. Especially up front. I want bigs who can rack steals, D boards, and assists -- I need smart heads-up Bigs who can captain a defense and lead from the pivot on offense and the rear line on D. Then guards who post high ratios of FTA/FGAs, low TO numbers. Guards are your ball handlers and motion players, fouls on other teams mean extra possessions and clock control. Then add my rangy 3&D wings who can cover inside/out, set screens, run back door, hit open shots from outside.

My team would look very similar to your team. I love Fred van fleet type guards, Otto Porter type wings, and bigs like Tillman&Clarke.

2018: I was down to Zhaire Smith, Robert Williams, and Donte Divencenzo, in that order. Was also a HUGE Hami Diallo fan(posted about him a lot) and would’ve taken him instead Isuuf Sanon, obviously

2019: I wanted Clarke and just like PIF talks about all the time, I was zeroed in on a trade down with Boston, but would’ve taken him as high as 9 if there wasn’t a trade down option. Everyone on this board would’ve taken Bol Bol with round 2 pick, not Admiral freaking Schofield.

2020: I was all in on Haliburton. All it took to get Xavier Tillman was another 2022 pick+40th overall, most, if not all of us, would’ve made that trade.

Zhaire Smith would’ve been my big swing and miss, but that was more about a fluke health situation than a lack of basketball talent. still TBD on Bol Bol.

Haliburton was going to be my missing piece to my Otto&Beal core+Tillman&Clarke in the frontcourt. (I would’ve traded Wall to LA couple years ago)

2018 was the first year that I really got into the draft process, so I feel pretty good about my opinions so far. It’s crazy that the consensus opinions of this board are significantly better than the decisions made by the wizards organization. Who did you have on your board in 2018&2019?

[DCZards]

I had settled on a trade down for Saddiq Bey (40% from 3 at 5 shots a game) and Xavier Tillman (solid numbers in every category except 3fg%). The Mavericks (18, 31) wanted to trade up for Tyrese Halliburton. I could have had both plus future considerations.

I like Deni, but any time these cats do well I get the gripes. (Saddiq with a 30/12 game against Boston, and a 20/10/3a/1s vs the Bucks).

Sounds like we were on the same page as it relates to Saddiq Bey. I like Deni's potential but it wouldn't surprise me if Bey turned out to be the better NBA player. Saddiq was EC player of the week earlier this month.

I wrote this prior to the draft:

Achiuwa and my "sleeper" S. Bey are the other players I'd be fine with at 9, although a trade down to get one of them would be preferable. I'd also be cool with Haliburton.

I also said the Zards will do this:

The Zards will buy at least one second round pick. They'll use the pick to select either Cassius Winston or Immanuel Quickley.

Quickley ended up going late in the first round...and is a shoo-in for the all-rookie team.

[NatP4]

Wagner with another monster performance: 21 points 6 rebounds 3 steals 1 block 1 assist on 9 shots.

Springer: 21 points 6 rebounds 5 assists 2 steals 1 block on 14 shots.

I’m pretty confident in saying Wagner is one of the 3 best players in this draft.

[payitforward]

The grizzlies have such an awesome roster. Seems like they have great talent evaluating ability, not a single bad player on the roster. They value defense&efficiency and young talent. Xavier Tillman is having an awesome year.

I had settled on a trade down for Saddiq Bey (40% from 3 at 5 shots a game) and Xavier Tillman (solid numbers in every category except 3fg%). The Mavericks (18, 31) wanted to trade up for Tyrese Halliburton. I could have had both plus future considerations. ...

That trade was impossible. If it had been possible, it would have been a huge mistake. Now, the details:

Doc -- Wasn't there some behind the scenes way in which, somehow, Haliburton was wired to Sac'to? Like his agent was telling people not to pick him... he might not show up... something? I might be misremembering.

Oh yeah... https://kingsherald.com/draft-news/2020-nba-draft-tyrese-haliburton-sacramento-kings-lowe-post/
I'm not misremembering. So I guess your trade wasn't really possible. Of course it would have turned out very well, had it been possible.

In fact, come to think of it, by the time of the draft, most people thought Haliburton he'd be gone before #9 came around. &, in fact, so did the Mavs, who were looking to trade with teams that had higher picks than we did. So I guess, yeah, your trade wasn't really possible -- tho, for sure, it would have turned out very well, had it been possible.

That was such a long draft thread -- given the many delays. That may be why I don't remember you saying in the thread that you had settled on a trade down for #18 & #31. It'd be nice to review that part of the conversation, since no doubt that trade would have wound up working well had it been possible.

Presumably, though, that trade would have been for whoever was available at those picks, of course. Which, obviously, might not have been Saddiq Bey & Tillman (whom we all liked). You had no way to know they'd be on the board at those spots.

In fact, as Zards recalls about his own preferences, there were people who'd have been willing to Bey right there at #9 -- given that they thought, like most of us, that Haliburton would be gone. &, I don't think anyone thought Bey would drop to #18 -- since he was mocked higher than that just about everywhere.

As to Tillman -- for sure, you really liked him, I did too, pretty much everyone here liked him. But, it might have been hard to make a move based on imagining he'd be on the board at #31.

I think there was a widespread opinion that he'd go somewhere in the last 5 picks of R1. Of course, that didn't happen when Nnaji, Bolmaro, Quickley, Pritchard, Azubuike, Flynn, & McDaniels all went much higher than anyone imagined they would. & so, he was available.

When Tillman was still on the board at the end of R1, did you post hoping we would trade up from our #37 pick in order to get him? I don't think I did -- though of course I would have been elated, as you & others would have been, if we -- rather than Memphis -- had moved up to snag him. Only 2 spots....! We know how good Tillman has been so far -- & it's no surprise.

As to how good Bey is going to be, yes, he's had a few good games. Edit -- no, that's not fair -- Saddiq Bey is playing well. That said...

He certainly hasn't been anywhere near as good as Haliburton! Not in the same planetary system. So, had it been possible to take Haliburton at #9, it would have been a lot better to pick him at #9 & trade up from #37 to get Tillman than to make your trade. Which was impossible anyway.

Then again, it might not have been possible to beat out Memphis for Tillman (tho, since they gave a #40 + something, & we had a #37... you'd think it would have been! ).

Truth is, given how good Tyrese Haliburton has been so far -- by far the best rookie in the league, a zillion times better than Saddiq Bey, for example, & better than Tillman too, not to mention 3d in minutes among rookies -- I'd have to re-think what I said above about your impossible trade: that it "would have worked out well."

It would have been a huge mistake: now that I've taken a close look at what Haliburton has done so far, it would have been better by far simply to take the guy at #9 than anything else we could have done in the draft. Certainly better than your preferred impossible trade!

Unfortunately, it wasn't possible to take him. The deal was done.

& if there'd been no such deal he wouldn't have been there to take at #9.

Just like your trade -- impossible.

[NatP4]

Cunningham has had a good game, but he almost handed Oklahoma the win at the buzzer in another last shot situation in which he went too quickly and lost the ball with 6 seconds on the clock.

He plays exactly like Jaylen Brown. Definitely not a point guard. Scoring wing like Jalen Green.

[doclinkin]

That trade was impossible. If it had been possible, it would have been a huge mistake. Now, the details:

Doc -- Wasn't there some behind the scenes way in which, somehow, Haliburton was wired to Sac'to? Like his agent was telling people not to pick him... he might not show up... something? I might be misremembering.

Oh yeah... https://kingsherald.com/draft-news/2020-nba-draft-tyrese-haliburton-sacramento-kings-lowe-post/
I'm not misremembering. So I guess your trade wasn't really possible. Of course it would have turned out very well, had it been possible.

Not impossible, teams would have just had to call his bluff. Select him anyways and then convince him it was a good idea. That happens every now and again on draft night, it just tends to make the headlines when it actually works. Zero chance though that he would actually hold out when real money was on the line.

From what I understand Dallas was offering a significant package. Right or wrong I likely would have taken it. Future draft picks are significantly undervalued and our cupboard is bare, in order to get particularly good we will need to maximize the assets we have. Your usual draft exercise of trading down for 4-5 picks in a draft, while it is a fun puzzle to play, in real life we have limited minutes or practice time for young players. You do better off with an extra pick or two every year than bringing in 1/4 of your roster slots in one draft. That way you can bring them up with veterans to train them. And not all drafts are the same. Dollar cost averaging seems to apply.

I liked Halliburton. I thought he was an ideal fit next to either or both of Brad and Wall. I was higher on him than whomever was left. I figured he would be gone before us. I had him above Devin Vassell and Aaron Nesmith, both available at 9. But if the Mavs came with a serious package, I would have probably selected Tyrese and then seen what sweetener the Mavs came up with. I have no doubt I could have been convinced to swap.

At that point the question would have been if I had selected Precious or Saddiq. Saddiq grew on me, Zards had him first but by draft night he and Xavier Tillman were my picks. I might have regretted it, based on Halliburton's later growth. Then consoled myself with the story that he had said she wasn't going to play here. But really the value depends on what the later picks were that Dallas was offering. That part we will never know.

[pcbothwel]

Wagner with another monster performance: 21 points 6 rebounds 3 steals 1 block 1 assist on 9 shots.

Springer: 21 points 6 rebounds 5 assists 2 steals 1 block on 14 shots.

I’m pretty confident in saying Wagner is one of the 3 best players in this draft.

Wagner has a 54/40/84 shooting split, more steals than turnovers, and a 13.8 BPM. He is being criminally underrated at this point.

[NatP4]

Wagner with another monster performance: 21 points 6 rebounds 3 steals 1 block 1 assist on 9 shots.

Springer: 21 points 6 rebounds 5 assists 2 steals 1 block on 14 shots.

I’m pretty confident in saying Wagner is one of the 3 best players in this draft.

Wagner has a 54/40/84 shooting split, more steals than turnovers, and a 13.8 BPM. He is being criminally underrated at this point.

Yeah, 54/40/84 shooting splits+hands down the best defensive player in college basketball that can guard 1-5. He’s my #3 behind Mobley and Suggs. He might end up being better than both of them though. Green&Cunningham would be next as high level wing scorers.

He has that high level competitiveness and confidence that I ranted about with his brother on this board. You see him get into his teamates if they make a dumb or selfish play. I haven’t seen an effort lacking play by him all year and I’ve watched maybe 4-5 full games now.

Great call, I had never seen him play before you posted about him.

[NatP4]

No clue who this person is, but this chart was interesting to look at, as well as the charts in the corresponding tweets

Read on Twitter

He has Wagner at 6, Springer at 10, and Butler at 13.

[Dat2U]

The grizzlies have such an awesome roster. Seems like they have great talent evaluating ability, not a single bad player on the roster. They value defense&efficiency and young talent. Xavier Tillman is having an awesome year.

I had settled on a trade down for Saddiq Bey (40% from 3 at 5 shots a game) and Xavier Tillman (solid numbers in every category except 3fg%). The Mavericks (18, 31) wanted to trade up for Tyrese Halliburton. I could have had both plus future considerations. ...

That trade was impossible. If it had been possible, it would have been a huge mistake. Now, the details:

Doc -- Wasn't there some behind the scenes way in which, somehow, Haliburton was wired to Sac'to? Like his agent was telling people not to pick him... he might not show up... something? I might be misremembering.

Oh yeah... https://kingsherald.com/draft-news/2020-nba-draft-tyrese-haliburton-sacramento-kings-lowe-post/
I'm not misremembering. So I guess your trade wasn't really possible. Of course it would have turned out very well, had it been possible.

In fact, come to think of it, by the time of the draft, most people thought Haliburton he'd be gone before #9 came around. &, in fact, so did the Mavs, who were looking to trade with teams that had higher picks than we did. So I guess, yeah, your trade wasn't really possible -- tho, for sure, it would have turned out very well, had it been possible.

That was such a long draft thread -- given the many delays. That may be why I don't remember you saying in the thread that you had settled on a trade down for #18 & #31. It'd be nice to review that part of the conversation, since no doubt that trade would have wound up working well had it been possible.

Presumably, though, that trade would have been for whoever was available at those picks, of course. Which, obviously, might not have been Saddiq Bey & Tillman (whom we all liked). You had no way to know they'd be on the board at those spots.

In fact, as Zards recalls about his own preferences, there were people who'd have been willing to Bey right there at #9 -- given that they thought, like most of us, that Haliburton would be gone. &, I don't think anyone thought Bey would drop to #18 -- since he was mocked higher than that just about everywhere.

As to Tillman -- for sure, you really liked him, I did too, pretty much everyone here liked him. But, it might have been hard to make a move based on imagining he'd be on the board at #31.

I think there was a widespread opinion that he'd go somewhere in the last 5 picks of R1. Of course, that didn't happen when Nnaji, Bolmaro, Quickley, Pritchard, Azubuike, Flynn, & McDaniels all went much higher than anyone imagined they would. & so, he was available.

When Tillman was still on the board at the end of R1, did you post hoping we would trade up from our #37 pick in order to get him? I don't think I did -- though of course I would have been elated, as you & others would have been, if we -- rather than Memphis -- had moved up to snag him. Only 2 spots....! We know how good Tillman has been so far -- & it's no surprise.

As to how good Bey is going to be, yes, he's had a few good games. Edit -- no, that's not fair -- Saddiq Bey is playing well. That said...

He certainly hasn't been anywhere near as good as Haliburton! Not in the same planetary system. So, had it been possible to take Haliburton at #9, it would have been a lot better to pick him at #9 & trade up from #37 to get Tillman than to make your trade. Which was impossible anyway.

Then again, it might not have been possible to beat out Memphis for Tillman (tho, since they gave a #40 + something, & we had a #37... you'd think it would have been! ).

Truth is, given how good Tyrese Haliburton has been so far -- by far the best rookie in the league, a zillion times better than Saddiq Bey, for example, & better than Tillman too, not to mention 3d in minutes among rookies -- I'd have to re-think what I said above about your impossible trade: that it "would have worked out well."

It would have been a huge mistake: now that I've taken a close look at what Haliburton has done so far, it would have been better by far simply to take the guy at #9 than anything else we could have done in the draft. Certainly better than your preferred impossible trade!

Unfortunately, it wasn't possible to take him. The deal was done.

& if there'd been no such deal he wouldn't have been there to take at #9.

Just like your trade -- impossible.

I was locked in on Haliburton once he fell to #9 and desperately wanted to trade up for either Malachi Flynn or Xavier Tillman. They both had mid-1st round grades in my book.

[DCZards]

I’m with doc. It’s nonsense to suggest that it was “impossible” to draft Haliburton because of claims that he wanted to go to Sacramento.

If he’s the guy you want you take him. It would have probably taken Haliburton and his agent about 24 hrs to get over the fact that he wouldn’t be playing in Sactown.

[payitforward]

That trade was impossible. If it had been possible, it would have been a huge mistake. Now, the details:

Doc -- Wasn't there some behind the scenes way in which, somehow, Haliburton was wired to Sac'to? Like his agent was telling people not to pick him... he might not show up... something? I might be misremembering.

Oh yeah... https://kingsherald.com/draft-news/2020-nba-draft-tyrese-haliburton-sacramento-kings-lowe-post/
I'm not misremembering. So I guess your trade wasn't really possible. Of course it would have turned out very well, had it been possible.

Not impossible, teams would have just had to call his bluff. Select him anyways and then convince him it was a good idea. That happens every now and again on draft night, it just tends to make the headlines when it actually works. Zero chance though that he would actually hold out when real money was on the line.

From what I understand Dallas was offering a significant package. Right or wrong I likely would have taken it. Future draft picks are significantly undervalued and our cupboard is bare, in order to get particularly good we will need to maximize the assets we have. Your usual draft exercise of trading down for 4-5 picks in a draft, while it is a fun puzzle to play, in real life we have limited minutes or practice time for young players. You do better off with an extra pick or two every year than bringing in 1/4 of your roster slots in one draft. That way you can bring them up with veterans to train them. And not all drafts are the same. Dollar cost averaging seems to apply.

I liked Halliburton. I thought he was an ideal fit next to either or both of Brad and Wall. I was higher on him than whomever was left. I figured he would be gone before us. I had him above Devin Vassell and Aaron Nesmith, both available at 9. But if the Mavs came with a serious package, I would have probably selected Tyrese and then seen what sweetener the Mavs came up with. I have no doubt I could have been convinced to swap.

At that point the question would have been if I had selected Precious or Saddiq. Saddiq grew on me, Zards had him first but by draft night he and Xavier Tillman were my picks. I might have regretted it, based on Halliburton's later growth. Then consoled myself with the story that he had said she wasn't going to play here. But really the value depends on what the later picks were that Dallas was offering. That part we will never know.

Well, of course, we could simply have picked Haliburton & played hardball. Naturally, that's a little easier for us to envision on this board than to do -- as is evidenced by the fact that neither we or anyone else did it!

As well, you glide over the fact that there was no real reason to think that Bey would be on the board at #18 & little reason to expect Tillman to be there at #31 -- so one can't really view the trade as one made to secure these two players. You'd have to have 3 players in mind at each spot.

IOW, it's hindsight & only hindsight that gives any impact to this particular trade-down idea. Not that I disagree with the move, doc. But, it can't be presented as a decision to acquire Saddiq Bey & Xavier Tillman!

This is especially a problem if you use access to Haliburton for the Mavs as the carrot. If the "deal" w/ Sac'to wasn't a problem, he was going earlier. If it was, then it existed whoever the Mavs traded with.

[doclinkin]

As well, you glide over the fact that there was no real reason to think that Bey would be on the board at #18 & little reason to expect Tillman to be there at #31 -- so one can't really view the trade as one made to secure these two players. You'd have to have 3 players in mind at each spot.

Right, I had two in Achiuwa and Bey, who were both available then. With future sweetener I would have been happy with either. But disagree on Tillman. Pick# 31 is the first pick in the 2nd round. If Tillman was projected to fall to 2nd (he was) then he was ours. Funny though I will quote this line next time you pull out your look-back-machine whining:

IOW, it's hindsight & only hindsight that gives any impact to this particular trade-down idea.

Yes a pick trade works best if you select a guy who fits your team and is on the same tier as the others available, then you trade with the team who wants him -IF- a guy you like falls to their pick. Still you squeeze them to get a little extra juice from the deal.

As for who falls or doesn't fall, players fall every year. Deni was a prime example of that. Tyrese had knocks on him based on his size and unconventional athletic profile. I doubt he fell solely because his agent said not to draft him (frankly that sounds like an agent trying to make it all sound good, plus a bit of happy talk for the team that landed him). Yes if a player fails to give medical examination to teams, then okay you can influence the selection. But players get drafted by teams they don't work out for. Even by teams they say they don't want to play for. Then the ball goes up and they play.

[nate33]

I don't like any trade down scenario better than drafting and keeping Haliburton.

[NatP4]

Jalen Green has been ridiculous lately. I would imagine he’s playing his way into the conversation for the top pick.

[prime1time]

Cunningham with 40, its dope for the NBA that these guys are coming into the league.

[doclinkin]

I don't like any trade down scenario better than drafting and keeping Haliburton.

Fair to say that NOW. I would have been the dumb guy perhaps. Still, I like watching the guys I tabbed prove they belong in the league:

Watch on YouTube

Watch on YouTube

Watch on YouTube