mademan wrote:scrabbarista wrote:yoyoboy wrote:i said top 4 seeds in each conference excluding Milwaukee which includes Boston in the equation.
Loss @BOS -1
Loss @NY -20
Loss UTAH -13
Loss @BRK -2 (without Kyrie)
Loss LAL -7
Loss PHO -1
Loss UTAH -14
Win LAC +5
____________
1-7 Record / Average Margin: -6.6
Sorry, but bringing up "a few misses here and there" doesn't fly. They've gotten solidly outplayed by the top teams in both conferences. SRS is a nice measure but again, it's also important to perform well against the best teams and Milwaukee has not. They're playing roughly like a -1.3 SRS team against the top teams in the East and West and like a +9.6 SRS team against everyone else. For someone like Giannis whose team in his past 2 MVP winning seasons has now underperformed in the postseason against 2 inferior teams who unleashed schemes that were able to neuter the effectiveness of him and the offense, I think it's especially important to show that he and the Bucks can actually beat the contenders.
I think simply looking at team success as a product of W/L and SRS is way too narrow of a view. How is the team actually faring against their probable playoff matchups and possible Finals matchups? So far Milwaukee does not look like a team any more suited to advance far in the playoffs than they were in the past. You can bring up "but it's a regular season award" all you want but at the end of the day the regular season is about preparing for the playoffs and if your value is going towards a team that's not set up to be successful in the later rounds of the postseason, then I really don't care too much, compared to a player whose value is much more scalable against elite teams.
So, you could've just as easily included MIA, who has the same record as BOS. That would've added another win.
Bottom line is, you're dealing in a sample size of less than ten games, and you're arguing for the MVP Award based on your own personal projection of what's going to happen in the future (this season's playoffs). To anyone who doesn't accept the validity of the sample size or anyone who sees the playoffs playing out differently than you project, your two points are irrelevant. To anyone who does accept the validity of your sample size and does see the future the same way you do, then you've got good points - assuming they also think projecting the playoffs should even be a part of the MVP conversation, of course. I fall into the former camp, so you haven't done anything to even sway my opinions, much less actually change them.
(I actually picked MIL to win it all a few days ago, so I happen to disagree very strongly that there is nothing different about them this season. Although, I also feel that projecting what's going to happen in the playoffs shouldn't be a part of the MVP conversation to begin with... but that's a whole separate discussion...)
Bucks are bumslaying tho. What are they, like 7-10 against .500+ teams? Thats not that small of a sample size, especially when theyre proven supernova against the scrubs in the league. Theyre just thrashing bad teams
21 games isn't
that small. That's fair. (Still small enough to be swung hard by a few key possessions.) 9-11 also isn't
that terrible. EDIT: I see you changed the numbers. To emphasize my point about sample sizes, if they're 7-10 after 17 games, they could easily be 11-10 after 21. And
those four games could be swung by a few possessions - but the record looks very different at first glance.
I suspect that, as a Bucks fan, you're more interested in the "win it all" part of my post than the Antetokounmpo part. (And, tbf to myself, I have Antetokounmpo in third, so it's not like I'm arguing that he deserves the Award right now.)
Short answer, I think they're taking the same approach against good teams in the regular season that
other good teams took against
them in the regular season the past two years: they're willing to sacrifice a win here and there in order to experiment and troubleshoot potential problems in the playoffs. That, combined with Giannis' development and the upgrade of Holiday over Bledsoe, is why they're my pick to win it all - but, mostly, that. I think their main problem the last two seasons has been Coach Bud, and I think he's taking a different approach this season. To be clear, I'd easily take the field over them. The thread I picked them in was titled "if you had to bet on one team" etc., etc..
EDIT2: Eh, maybe you're not a Bucks fan? My bad, if so. It's not really essential to the points I was making.
All human life on the earth is like grass, and all human glory is like a flower in a field. The grass dries up and its flower falls off, but the Lord’s word endures forever.