Deni Avdija

[Dat2U]

Well, we're back to the normal way to treat a Wizards rookie! The way Brad was treated, for example.

Deni Avdija came in as a 19-year old rookie. He's played in a couple of dozen NBA games. He was handed a starting job & performed surprisingly well during a time when the team was basically losing every night. Then, as was to be expected, he began to crater.

We're definitely not on the Rui model here -- where a guy who has played 2200 minutes over two seasons & is no better than he was on day one gets adulation instead of criticism -- "Look at that, did you see that? He was in the right place that time!" Wow!

I have a perfect way to end this nonsense -- a poll is coming up....

If you think Rui is no better than he was on Day 1, you are not paying attention.

Oh, I'm paying attention, nate. Perhaps it's a question of what I am paying attention to, what you are paying attention to, & overall, what one ought to pay attention to?

Plus, it's an over-simplification to be sure. There are, no doubt, some ways in which Rui has improved slightly (while getting worse in others). &, of course, it's also a question of what one means by "better," isn't it? "Good," like "beautiful," "intelligent," & a bunch of other words is what linguists call an "honorific" -- praise given as if it were an objective thing. I.e. as if to say something is "good" were like saying it is "spherical."

So, instead of these evaluative words, let's just see whether, after 2200 minutes, the numbers Rui produces in his time on the floor as a 2d year player are better overall than they were as a rookie. I used https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/h/hachiru01.html to check.

Rui's efg% has gone up from 48.9% to 49.8% -- on lower usage -- he's taking fewer shots than he did last year -- & of course it's still way, way below average. TS% is up just a little, it's true -- it's improved by 2.6%. Still way below average. While scoring fewer points than last year.

He's getting to the line a little more than last year, .65 more times per 40 minutes. For a while, he was doing better than that, but it's dropped.

Just as, for a while his 3pt% had jumped nicely. Check where it is now.

In short, it'd be a stretch to say that a PF who scores a below average number of points at a below average FG% & TS% (neither of which has changed much from the previous year) has improved, wouldn't you say? Has Rui been a better scorer this year? In a way that would make you say, "Rui has changed" -- ?

But, why not, right...? Let's say there has been a slight improvement in scoring.

Rui's defensive rebounding is unchanged -- about 80% of what an average (not a good) PF gets.

His offensive rebounding has declined by 30%. Overall, in other words, he's an even worse rebounder this year than last.

He is one of the worst shot-blocking 4s in the league -- average is sixteen times what he delivers! & worse this year than last.

The rest of his per 40 minute (or per game, for that matter) numbers are virtually identical to last year (he's below average in assists & about average in steals, while his best numbers, this year & last, are his significantly better than average TO & foul rates.

There is, overall, virtually no difference between what Rui delivers on court this year as opposed to last year.

Is any of that worth paying attention to, nate? No? Doesn't mean much? Why?

Rui looks and plays more like a SF this season. He's defending the perimeter better in my opinion, especially last few weeks. I'm hard pressed to consider him a PF anymore despite him still getting minutes there.

[prime1time]

Also, just if a Advija has a good game where he makes 4 or 5 3’s it doesn’t prove anything. What’s at question is whether he will initiate offense, lead fast breaks and given a chance to utilize his play making skills. Not sure why I’m the only one that sees the issue of trying to turn Advija into Bertans.

Personally, I think we should post up Russ more. Allow Advija to lead fast breaks, play 5 out basketball with Russ in the post and create an offense either more ball movement. The irony of the current approach is that while it’s good in the short run, in the long run we’ll go only as far as Advija and Rui can take us. We need them down the stretch. I doubt that Brooks has the imagination to conceive of an offense where that is taking place. As well as Ish and Neto have been playing, Brown Jr and Advija should be coming off the bench and allowed to create somewhat in the offense. That’s why you drafted them. But even this is merely a temporary fix. The larger fix is to commit to a vision for the future of this team and to stick to it.

If you want an offense where “everyone eats” then every decision you make should be about bringing that to fruition. Imo, more than anything else it was this lack of consistent vision, more than anything else, that has caused the Wizards to struggle to be competitive for 25+ years. When you don’t know what team you are trying to build, how do you decide who to draft? How do you govern player development. How do you decide who to sign in free agency?

[Pistol King]

Really an interesting discussion the past few pages here. Loved it.

Talking about Sheppard and the Wiz having no clear vision or direction, I wonder what is his responsibility for bringing Russ and his heavy contract, when he knows Russ is all about ISO, and while he has been talking about prioritizing a more team-oriented ball sharing and motion offense system. Only me see the contradiction here? I don't know if I'd trust someone who acts differently than what supposed to be his vision.

[nate33]

If you think Rui is no better than he was on Day 1, you are not paying attention.

Oh, I'm paying attention, nate. Perhaps it's a question of what I am paying attention to, what you are paying attention to, & overall, what one ought to pay attention to?

Plus, it's an over-simplification to be sure. There are, no doubt, some ways in which Rui has improved slightly (while getting worse in others). &, of course, it's also a question of what one means by "better," isn't it? "Good," like "beautiful," "intelligent," & a bunch of other words is what linguists call an "honorific" -- praise given as if it were an objective thing. I.e. as if to say something is "good" were like saying it is "spherical."

So, instead of these evaluative words, let's just see whether, after 2200 minutes, the numbers Rui produces in his time on the floor as a 2d year player are better overall than they were as a rookie. I used https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/h/hachiru01.html to check.

Rui's efg% has gone up from 48.9% to 49.8% -- on lower usage -- he's taking fewer shots than he did last year -- & of course it's still way, way below average. TS% is up just a little, it's true -- it's improved by 2.6%. Still way below average. While scoring fewer points than last year.

He's getting to the line a little more than last year, .65 more times per 40 minutes. For a while, he was doing better than that, but it's dropped.

Just as, for a while his 3pt% had jumped nicely. Check where it is now.

In short, it'd be a stretch to say that a PF who scores a below average number of points at a below average FG% & TS% (neither of which has changed much from the previous year) has improved, wouldn't you say? Has Rui been a better scorer this year? In a way that would make you say, "Rui has changed" -- ?

But, why not, right...? Let's say there has been a slight improvement in scoring.

Rui's defensive rebounding is unchanged -- about 80% of what an average (not a good) PF gets.

His offensive rebounding has declined by 30%. Overall, in other words, he's an even worse rebounder this year than last.

He is one of the worst shot-blocking 4s in the league -- average is sixteen times what he delivers! & worse this year than last.

The rest of his per 40 minute (or per game, for that matter) numbers are virtually identical to last year (he's below average in assists & about average in steals, while his best numbers, this year & last, are his significantly better than average TO & foul rates.

There is, overall, virtually no difference between what Rui delivers on court this year as opposed to last year.

Is any of that worth paying attention to, nate? No? Doesn't mean much? Why?

Rui looks and plays more like a SF this season. He's defending the perimeter better in my opinion, especially last few weeks. I'm hard pressed to consider him a PF anymore despite him still getting minutes there.

The main thing that makes him a PF is that teams can't guard him with a SF because he's too strong in the post. His size forces teams to play a real PF 6-8 or taller, which makes it a little harder for other teams to spread the floor. It's one of the unseen things caused by Hachimura's presence that he doesn't really get credit for. It's one of the reasons why the team is 0-7 without him.

I'm not arguing that Hachimura is great or anything. But I do think his impact exceeds his box score stats.

[prime1time]

There seems to be a lack of understanding about why the Wizards are suddenly winning games. It's really not that complicated. Russell Westbrook knows what winning looks like. On good teams everyone has a role. On bad teams players just freestyle. This was the Wizards last year. Beal takes his shots yes, but after that who gets the ball? Rui some games. Brown Jr. other games. Thomas Bryant other games. Good teams don't play like this. On good teams everyone has a role. On good teams, even before the team starts to play everyone knows their specific role. On the offseason, they focus on getting better at their role.

I know the Rockets didn't win a championship with Harden, btu they are a great example. Everyone on that team had a defined role. No one ever just came down the floor and "winged it." Same with the Heat. Going into the draft the Heat know what they are looking for. When they draft a player, they tell them what their role will be. When the games start, the player is doing what they said he'd be doing. So it should come as no surprise that the Wizards recent winning streak coincided with Westbrook and Beal asking/demanding that every player write down their role.

https://www.nbcsports.com/washington/wizards/team-meeting-led-russell-westbrook-and-bradley-beal-helped-spark-wizards

Several weeks ago before one of their rare practices this season, the Wizards held a team meeting where Russell Westbrook asked each player to define their roles. The team was in the middle of a disappointing start, and a misunderstanding over responsibilities was in his, and Bradley Beal's, eyes part of the problem. So, one by one they went around and each player stated what they felt was their primary duties in front of the group.

When players have specific roles assigned, you go from just being a collection of talent playing disorganized basketball, to a cohesive team. This is why the Wizards are starting to win games. One of my favorite plays of all time is a clip of JR Smith in the NBA finals. The same JR Smith that could do this on a bad Knicks team

Watch on YouTube

Did this on the Championship Cavs team.

Watch on YouTube

Look at JR, when he first got that ball. He was ready to attack his defender off the dribble. Then some outside force - his role on the team - imposed itself onto him and he passes the ball to LeBron. On bad teams, Jr Smith can create. On championship teams, he's purely 3 and D. This is what championship basketball looks like. Each player knowing and accepting their role. It's why wherever LBJ goes the roster turnover. Instead of point forwards, they bring in 3 and D guys. Because LBJ's going to be the one with the ball and everyone else other than the other star is going to be shoot 3's. It's why Chris Bosh turned into a spot-up shooter. So the fact that the Wizards are just defining roles in the middle of the season tells you all you need to know about the organization and the complete lack of understanding when it comes to building a winning team.

Some people are under the impression that you can just throw a bunch of "good" players together and everything will be good. This is simply not the case. Players need define roles. What does this have to do with Advija? Well, Advija is billed as a point forward. He trains to be a point forward. So when you get given a role that doesn't match with how you see yourself as a player tension arises. Not just from the player but also from the organization who has to decide whether or not to stick with said player and develop them into that role, change the role or get a player that better suits that role. Regardless, a decision must be made.

[Kanyewest]

There seems to be a lack of understanding about why the Wizards are suddenly winning games. It's really not that complicated. Russell Westbrook knows what winning looks like. On good teams everyone has a role. On bad teams players just freestyle. This was the Wizards last year. Beal takes his shots yes, but after that who gets the ball? Rui some games. Brown Jr. other games. Thomas Bryant other games. Good teams don't play like this. On good teams everyone has a role. On good teams, even before the team starts to play everyone knows their specific role. On the offseason, they focus on getting better at their role.

I know the Rockets didn't win a championship with Harden, btu they are a great example. Everyone on that team had a defined role. No one ever just came down the floor and "winged it." Same with the Heat. Going into the draft the Heat know what they are looking for. When they draft a player, they tell them what their role will be. When the games start, the player is doing what they said he'd be doing. So it should come as no surprise that the Wizards recent winning streak coincided with Westbrook and Beal asking/demanding that every player write down their role.

https://www.nbcsports.com/washington/wizards/team-meeting-led-russell-westbrook-and-bradley-beal-helped-spark-wizards

Several weeks ago before one of their rare practices this season, the Wizards held a team meeting where Russell Westbrook asked each player to define their roles. The team was in the middle of a disappointing start, and a misunderstanding over responsibilities was in his, and Bradley Beal's, eyes part of the problem. So, one by one they went around and each player stated what they felt was their primary duties in front of the group.

When players have specific roles assigned, you go from just being a collection of talent playing disorganized basketball, to a cohesive team. This is why the Wizards are starting to win games. One of my favorite plays of all time is a clip of JR Smith in the NBA finals. The same JR Smith that could do this on a bad Knicks team

Watch on YouTube

Did this on the Championship Cavs team.

Watch on YouTube

Look at JR, when he first got that ball. He was ready to attack his defender off the dribble. Then some outside force - his role on the team - imposed itself onto him and he passes the ball to LeBron. On bad teams, Jr Smith can create. On championship teams, he's purely 3 and D. This is what championship basketball looks like. Each player knowing and accepting their role. It's why wherever LBJ goes the roster turnover. Instead of point forwards, they bring in 3 and D guys. Because LBJ's going to be the one with the ball and everyone else other than the other star is going to be shoot 3's. It's why Chris Bosh turned into a spot-up shooter. So the fact that the Wizards are just defining roles in the middle of the season tells you all you need to know about the organization and the complete lack of understanding when it comes to building a winning team.

Some people are under the impression that you can just throw a bunch of "good" players together and everything will be good. This is simply not the case. Players need define roles. What does this have to do with Advija? Well, Advija is billed as a point forward. He trains to be a point forward. So when you get given a role that doesn't match with how you see yourself as a player tension arises. Not just from the player but also from the organization who has to decide whether or not to stick with said player and develop them into that role, change the role or get a player that better suits that role. Regardless, a decision must be made.

Yeah I agree in a sense that Deni would have to learn how to play a three and defense role. While LeBron and Westbrook are miles apart (even on Westbrooks best days), Deni is going to have to learn to make 3 pointers. Still, ultimately Westbrook role as a primary ball handler is going to have to improve if the Wizards have plans of making past the 1st round.

The difference being of course is that JR Smith had already been in the league for 8-10 years with the Knicks and the Cavs. And was already a much more prolific 3 point shooter even earlier in his career with the Nuggets. Even as a rookie with the Hornets and shooting a pretty dismal percentage at 27% JR Smith took more 3 point shots per 100 possession than Deni has in 2021 - which is surprising given how many more 3 pointers are shot in today's NBA.

But I agree with you in a sense, if Deni is going to be a good 3 and D forward, he needs to keep getting his opportunities from deep. We are dealing with low sample sizes but his play as a 3 point shooter has taken a hit after beginning the season shooting 43% from deep at a starter, he is only shooting 23.5% from deep coming off the bench. Still, he's a young rookie who could be hitting his rookie wall especially in a condensed season.

At the same time, Deni could see more action as a ball-handler on this team because it doesn't have a truly great ball handler. The bench unit or at least playing alongside Neto could be better for his game.

[NatP4]

Really an interesting discussion the past few pages here. Loved it.

Talking about Sheppard and the Wiz having no clear vision or direction, I wonder what is his responsibility for bringing Russ and his heavy contract, when he knows Russ is all about ISO, and while he has been talking about prioritizing a more team-oriented ball sharing and motion offense system. Only me see the contradiction here? I don't know if I'd trust someone who acts differently than what supposed to be his vision.

That’s kind of the million dollar question. Some posters like PIF have made the claim you are alluding to, that Ted forced Tommy’s hand with the Wall/Westbrook trade for $ reasons.

I’m not sure if I believe that, I think Tommy just thought he was getting 2017 Westbrook.

[payitforward]

If you think Rui is no better than he was on Day 1, you are not paying attention.

Oh, I'm paying attention, nate. Perhaps it's a question of what I am paying attention to, what you are paying attention to, & overall, what one ought to pay attention to?

Plus, it's an over-simplification to be sure. There are, no doubt, some ways in which Rui has improved slightly (while getting worse in others). &, of course, it's also a question of what one means by "better," isn't it? "Good," like "beautiful," "intelligent," & a bunch of other words is what linguists call an "honorific" -- praise given as if it were an objective thing. I.e. as if to say something is "good" were like saying it is "spherical."

So, instead of these evaluative words, let's just see whether, after 2200 minutes, the numbers Rui produces in his time on the floor as a 2d year player are better overall than they were as a rookie. I used https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/h/hachiru01.html to check.

Rui's efg% has gone up from 48.9% to 49.8% -- on lower usage -- he's taking fewer shots than he did last year -- & of course it's still way, way below average. TS% is up just a little, it's true -- it's improved by 2.6%. Still way below average. While scoring fewer points than last year.

He's getting to the line a little more than last year, .65 more times per 40 minutes. For a while, he was doing better than that, but it's dropped.

Just as, for a while his 3pt% had jumped nicely. Check where it is now.

In short, it'd be a stretch to say that a PF who scores a below average number of points at a below average FG% & TS% (neither of which has changed much from the previous year) has improved, wouldn't you say? Has Rui been a better scorer this year? In a way that would make you say, "Rui has changed" -- ?

But, why not, right...? Let's say there has been a slight improvement in scoring.

Rui's defensive rebounding is unchanged -- about 80% of what an average (not a good) PF gets.

His offensive rebounding has declined by 30%. Overall, in other words, he's an even worse rebounder this year than last.

He is one of the worst shot-blocking 4s in the league -- average is sixteen times what he delivers! & worse this year than last.

The rest of his per 40 minute (or per game, for that matter) numbers are virtually identical to last year (he's below average in assists & about average in steals, while his best numbers, this year & last, are his significantly better than average TO & foul rates.

There is, overall, virtually no difference between what Rui delivers on court this year as opposed to last year.

Is any of that worth paying attention to, nate? No? Doesn't mean much? Why?

Rui looks and plays more like a SF this season. He's defending the perimeter better in my opinion, especially last few weeks. I'm hard pressed to consider him a PF anymore despite him still getting minutes there.

Great to hear that in your opinion he's doing a better job of defending the perimeter.

Who starts at PF for the Wizards? Who guards the opponent's 4?

If you want to justify Rui's low rebounding numbers, I can give you a better way: he's playing with Russell Westbrook, who gets almost 11 per 40 minutes. That doesn't work either, not really, but it's another excuse, right?

Of course, Westbrook's boards haven't meant that Brad's rebounds have dropped, but let's ignore that. Yet, overall, team offensive rebounds have dropped (as have Rui's).

All the boards the team gets have to be gotten by the 5 guys on the floor. If your 3 puts up average numbers for a 3 (e.g. points, ts% rebounds, etc.) & your 4 also puts up average numbers for a 3, then overall your two forwards are below average -- b/c in this league, an average 4 scores slightly more points than an average 3 at a significantly higher TS% while getting lots more boards. 4s put up better raw numbers than 3s, period. To say the guy you have at position 4 of the only 5 you put on the floor puts up numbers of a 3 is not to praise him.

Let me put it another way: Garrison Mathews, a 2-3 who went undrafted in 2019, & who you said had no chance at all, is putting up way way better numbers than Rui Hachimura, who was drafted at #9 in 2019.

Were you wrong about Mathews? I haven't read anything where you said so. Until you do, it's hard to give full credit to you for a defense of Hachimura. We can all be wrong, dat -- me as often as nate as often as you. Wrong about an undrafted guy & wrong about a high pick too.

Does it help the team for Rui to get fewer rebounds, or does it hurt the team?

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

So the real question that's needed to be asked is, why the Wizards have drafted him? If you are in Win now mode, and can't let the guy do the mistakes in order to get better, then why have u chosen him?

I assume they drafted Deni because they thought he was the best player available at the 9th pick. Nothing wrong with that.

And players can still develop despite changing circumstances in regards to team direction.

It seems like the wiz were actually rebuilding for the last couple seasons and Troy brown Jr still didn’t play all that much though.

I think it’s just a bad organization that has no vision or direction.

Bad coaching.

[payitforward]

There's an alternate universe were guys like Nick Young, Javale McGee, Dominic McGuire, Jan Vesely and Chris Singleton etc. are all hall of famers because they got just the right amount of coaching, got a ton of unwarranted playing time and had every gameplan catered to their strengths.

In this world, these guys washed out because they weren't as good as the Washington Wizards hoped they'd be.

I don't care for Brooks, but he does see these guys every day in practice, on film, etc.

I find the suggestion that Brooks coaching is the difference between the season Avdija is having and the impact LaMelo Ball is having as a rookie laughable quite frankly.

This is 100% correct. & if Deni doesn't develop into a really good NBA player, it won't be on Brooks.

Of course, LaMelo ball went #3, so he's irrelevant to a discussion of Deni as a prospect. Even if he turns out a better player (so far so good on that!).

OTOH, right now it looks like Haliburton is a potential star. If he stays way better than Deni, then hindsight will tell us that it would have been better to pick him #9 than Deni. It would always be better to have picked the guy who turns out better. Duh.

Of course, that doesn't necessarily mean he'd have been "the right pick." Maybe in this case, but not always. Maybe not in this case, because there were extenuating circumstances.

Bu, there are no NBA drafts whatever where the players' eventual excellence matches the order in which they were picked. There isn't even one in which the top 5 were in the correct order based on how they turned out!

All choices are made in conditions of uncertainty. You're a businessman, this is not news to you. Draft choices are made in far greater uncertainty than most.

What if Xavier Tillman turns out better than Deni, however? Does that mean he would have been a better choice at #9? No, it means it would have been better to look for a deal that got you more for your asset -- including, for example, Tillman. Again, as a businessman, this must be obvious to you.

[Dolevi]

Another thing that's definetely connected to coaching and decisions by the coach is why in the hell Deni guards small and fast players unlike his size? We see that happens very often even when there are no switching on defense. Like even before the opponent start the attack. Why is that? In the game against the Celtics u saw Brad guarding Tatum (despite the fact Tatum is bigger than him), and Deni guarding Jeff Teague. A faster and smaller player.
So then i'm starting to ask myself, is it really Deni's fault the fact his coach and teamates let him be in a miss-match? How can u not gain fouls by doing that?

[url]

Watch on YouTube

;t=232s&ab_channel=%D7%A1%D7%A4%D7%95%D7%A8%D7%98%D7%91%D7%90%D7%99%D7%9B%D7%95%D7%AA%D7%92%D7%91%D7%95%D7%94%D7%94[/url]
4:47

I really don't know what are the considerations Brooks is thinking about while doing that. Deni may be fast a little bit, but he's not that quick in order to face against such a quick and small players. He does have the size to guard big guys, but there is no logic reason to put Beal on Tatum, and Deni on Teague.
This is a clear instruction from Brooks, I have no other explanation. It's just not logical.

Btw, the arcitle name of this video is "Washington officially plays like Oklahoma once did".

[payitforward]

The main thing that makes him a PF is that teams can't guard him with a SF because he's too strong in the post. His size forces teams to play a real PF 6-8 or taller, which makes it a little harder for other teams to spread the floor. It's one of the unseen things caused by Hachimura's presence that he doesn't really get credit for. ...

Wait, isn't this something that can be said about more or less any PF?

...I'm not arguing that Hachimura is great or anything. But I do think his impact exceeds his box score stats.

It's always hard to get this across, but I'll try:

1. To know who won a game, you need nothing but box score stats. What's in those stats entirely determines who won, who lost, by how many points, etc.

2. Box score stats simply add up all player's individual stats -- i.e. there's no "analytics" involved.

2. Thus, if each player's box score stats are a result of what he did & nothing else, then a player's box score stats suffice to explain his impact on the game.

(Note that this is true even if a) the guy went, say, 1-12 from the floor, but 2) his only make was a 3-pointer with 1 second on the game clock, & it gave us a 1-point win. He stlll had an awful game. Why this is true should be obvious -- nor is this a fact specifically about basketball. It holds in every arena of life.)

3. If each player's box score stats are not the result of what he did & nothing else, then some one or more of them owe something about how good they are to another guy's play. But, what people never notice: in this case, some one or more of them owe something about how bad they are to another guy's play.

I think we can assume that, to some small degree, both of these are true of every single player's box score numbers in every single game. & that, overall, the positive effects player A delivers to the box score of players B, C, D, & E are about equal to the negative effects he delivers.

No doubt this can be slightly off for any particular game, but, actually, it has to be true over time. Otherwise, how could you look at, say, LeBron's box score numbers & see how good he is?

Or, how could one look at Russell Westbrook's box scores from the first n games this season (which we mostly lost) vs the next n games (which we've mostly won) & expect to see that his box score stats got way better? They did, & those box score changes are a big reason why we're winning.

I can assure you, as well, that Brad's box score numbers are also way better in our last 9 games than they were in the previous 9 games. Ditto Neto. Lopez. Bertans. Len.

Here are two players who's box score stats have not improved in these 9 games vs. the previous 9 games: Deni Avdija & Rui Hachimura. Their play has not helped us win.

Thus, no, there are no "unseen things" Rui does, for which he should get credit & doesn't & which help us win or explain why we went 0-7 without him. Nor are there such unseen things Deni does.

No, the credit goes 100% to the guys who are actually playing better. To give it to Rui (or to Deni if you wanted to), you would have to take it away from those guys, because -- as I wrote at the beginning of this post -- the box score stats account 100% for the win. No aspect of why the winning team got the W is missing from the box score stats -- & those stats aren't hiding some "real" reason.

[nate33]

PIF, debating you is like debating a brick wall, so I won't say anything but this:

Box score stats do not tell you everything that happens on a basketball court. I player can play better and post worse box score numbers.

[Dolevi]

PIF, debating you is like debating a brick wall, so I won't say anything but this:

Box score stats do not tell you everything that happens on a basketball court. I player can play better and post worse box score numbers.

Agreed. U need more data.

[payitforward]

PIF, debating you is like debating a brick wall, so I won't say anything but this:

Box score stats do not tell you everything that happens on a basketball court. I player can play better and post worse box score numbers.

I'm not a brick wall, nate. I'm open to the idea -- why don't you give me an example?

But, will you make "better" & "worse" relate to effect on final score? I.e. we're not judging a gymnastics floor routine, right?

I don't mean this as a challenge, btw; I'd be interested in what you have in mind.

[Dat2U]

Oh, I'm paying attention, nate. Perhaps it's a question of what I am paying attention to, what you are paying attention to, & overall, what one ought to pay attention to?

Plus, it's an over-simplification to be sure. There are, no doubt, some ways in which Rui has improved slightly (while getting worse in others). &, of course, it's also a question of what one means by "better," isn't it? "Good," like "beautiful," "intelligent," & a bunch of other words is what linguists call an "honorific" -- praise given as if it were an objective thing. I.e. as if to say something is "good" were like saying it is "spherical."

So, instead of these evaluative words, let's just see whether, after 2200 minutes, the numbers Rui produces in his time on the floor as a 2d year player are better overall than they were as a rookie. I used https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/h/hachiru01.html to check.

Rui's efg% has gone up from 48.9% to 49.8% -- on lower usage -- he's taking fewer shots than he did last year -- & of course it's still way, way below average. TS% is up just a little, it's true -- it's improved by 2.6%. Still way below average. While scoring fewer points than last year.

He's getting to the line a little more than last year, .65 more times per 40 minutes. For a while, he was doing better than that, but it's dropped.

Just as, for a while his 3pt% had jumped nicely. Check where it is now.

In short, it'd be a stretch to say that a PF who scores a below average number of points at a below average FG% & TS% (neither of which has changed much from the previous year) has improved, wouldn't you say? Has Rui been a better scorer this year? In a way that would make you say, "Rui has changed" -- ?

But, why not, right...? Let's say there has been a slight improvement in scoring.

Rui's defensive rebounding is unchanged -- about 80% of what an average (not a good) PF gets.

His offensive rebounding has declined by 30%. Overall, in other words, he's an even worse rebounder this year than last.

He is one of the worst shot-blocking 4s in the league -- average is sixteen times what he delivers! & worse this year than last.

The rest of his per 40 minute (or per game, for that matter) numbers are virtually identical to last year (he's below average in assists & about average in steals, while his best numbers, this year & last, are his significantly better than average TO & foul rates.

There is, overall, virtually no difference between what Rui delivers on court this year as opposed to last year.

Is any of that worth paying attention to, nate? No? Doesn't mean much? Why?[/size]

Rui looks and plays more like a SF this season. He's defending the perimeter better in my opinion, especially last few weeks. I'm hard pressed to consider him a PF anymore despite him still getting minutes there.

Great to hear that in your opinion he's doing a better job of defending the perimeter.

Who starts at PF for the Wizards? Who guards the opponent's 4?

If you want to justify Rui's low rebounding numbers, I can give you a better way: he's playing with Russell Westbrook, who gets almost 11 per 40 minutes. That doesn't work either, not really, but it's another excuse, right?

Of course, Westbrook's boards haven't meant that Brad's rebounds have dropped, but let's ignore that. Yet, overall, team offensive rebounds have dropped (as have Rui's).

All the boards the team gets have to be gotten by the 5 guys on the floor. If your 3 puts up average numbers for a 3 (e.g. points, ts% rebounds, etc.) & your 4 also puts up average numbers for a 3, then overall your two forwards are below average -- b/c in this league, an average 4 scores slightly more points than an average 3 at a significantly higher TS% while getting lots more boards. 4s put up better raw numbers than 3s, period. To say the guy you have at position 4 of the only 5 you put on the floor puts up numbers of a 3 is not to praise him.

Let me put it another way: Garrison Mathews, a 2-3 who went undrafted in 2019, & who you said had no chance at all, is putting up way way better numbers than Rui Hachimura, who was drafted at #9 in 2019.

Were you wrong about Mathews? I haven't read anything where you said so. Until you do, it's hard to give full credit to you for a defense of Hachimura. We can all be wrong, dat -- me as often as nate as often as you. Wrong about an undrafted guy & wrong about a high pick too.

Does it help the team for Rui to get fewer rebounds, or does it hurt the team?

Don't make me a member of the Rui fan club because I'm not. I didn't want to draft him and I'm not sure he's a starter in the league but he does look quicker the perimeter and more capable of defending there. So maybe he transitions to the 3 and your looking for another 4 in the offseason.

As far as Mathews, he's been a nice surprise but he's also gotten a grand total of 650+ minutes at 15 minutes a game over the past two seasons. There's a difference b/w hitting on an undrafted free agent who can give you some decent minutes and nailing a lottery pick who could potentially become one of the best players on your roster. I don't think you've figured out the difference b/w the two.

[payitforward]

Dat -- no need to get testy with me, amigo! I'm one of your biggest fans here! As I said, everyone gets to be wrong sometimes. In fact, if you're not willing to be wrong, it's hard to say anything particularly meaningful. Be nice if you were actually willing to admit when you are wrong. Haven't seen that yet.

If Rui becomes a 3 & thrives at the spot, great! Haven't seen that yet either! But, I do recall that you were not & are not particularly a Rui fan.

As to not being able to tell the difference between a potential star & a bargain pull on an undrafted player, that's ridiculous, man. Nor is it always a lottery pick who "could... become one of the best players on your roster." How about Jimmy Butler -- I knew about him in college, btw, & wanted him for the Wiz that year too. Did you? How about Draymond -- or a zillion other guys.

Truth is "nailing a lottery pick" ought to be a lot easier than getting the best player in a draft at #15 & the 2d best player (also a star) at #30. But it isn't -- which is why Kawhi was there for San Antonio at #15.

Btw, Kawhi was my preferred pick for the Wiz in 2011. Was he yours?

No offense, man -- but you're being supercilious to the wrong guy. Peace!

Btw, were you right about Garrison Mathews? Or were you wrong about Garrison Mathews? Man up -- those are the choices.

[Kanyewest]

I'll go with Deni.

Pros for Avidja
- Good mechanics on 3 point shot
- Very good playmaking ability
- Seems to have a high basketball IQ
- Rebounds better than Rui while playing the small forward position.
- Younger so potentially more upside
- Decent lateral quickness.

Cons for Deni
- I would like to see him attack the rim more, perhaps the calf injury his effecting his explosiveness. When he's not knocking down 3s, it seems like he's limited. Of course this could be a coaching scheme by Brooks who rarely allows Deni to initiate the offense. Still, I would like to see him drive more to the basket and draw a few fouls
- He does seem to commit a decent amount of fouls- some due to being a rookie and others due to not getting the respect of the officials.

Pros for Rui
- Decent mid-range game
- Pretty good at finishing around the rim
- A more well rounded offensive game than Deni
- Decent on corner 3s
- Good defender on perimeter players

Cons
- Slightly older
- Has mental lapses on defense
- Needs to work on his rim protection
- 3 pointers from straight away need work
- Doesn't rebound well

[Pistol King]

Buck and Phil have a weekly podcast named "On the Road with Buck & Phil", and last week they invited Antawn Jamison to be their guest. One section that popped out to me, especially considering that right now Deni has some quiet games, was when Phil Chenier asked him:

"You know, I'm curios out of all the young players, which young player would you point to has having the greatest upside, I mean, potential to really blossom into an NBA star, of our young players? "

Antawn Jamison answered:

"I like Deni. Deni Avdija. I mean he's a, even though he's a rookie, when you watch him you might look into the box score as it might not blow you out the box, but you can just tell once he get comfortable, and once he sees the NBA game, what he's capable of doing, and gain the confidence to go out there and just play basketball, this guy close to 6'9"-6'10", he runs like a deer, he's athletic, can pass the ball, you never really seen his passing ability because of Russ and Bradly on the ball, but this guy can really pass the basketball and has an unbelievable basketball IQ. I think the fans of the Wizards eventually when he gets couple of years under his belt, really gonna be, they (the fans) might not be surprised, but they really gonna be surprised for as how much of a complete game he has. You know, a lot of these guys can just defend, a lot of these guys can just dunk the ball or just score the ball, this guy is gonna be.. not on the same level as Russ, but he's one of these guys that can give you, you know 18/7/7 a game. He's gonna have that type of basketball game, so he's one guy, if he can put everything together... right now I've been there as a rookie, you thinking, you know you try to figure things out, and of course to that the season is different, it kind of remind me my rookie season, there was a lockout season when we had to play so many games in so many days, didn't have a training camp, no summer league basketball, so for this guy when he gets the opportunity to play and gets that confidence and really understands the NBA basketball game, I think he's gonna be a house sold name, and I really am confident in him that he's gonna be one of those guys that is gonna be talked about night in and night out."

The full episode is here for those who interested:

https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/episode-36-antawn-jamison/id1511197348?i=1000513616476

[tripy_ran]

Is Deni a Bust ?
I know the team is not well coached, but I wonder if he can fit the league.