NewKnicks wrote:BugginOut wrote:NewKnicks wrote:
You don't know that. Either do I. But it is a possibility. Also, I'm not saying that they are LBJ or Duncan level of talent. That's a ridiculous comparison. But they could end up being all-stars. All of them have all-star potential. Which means if we were to get one of them, it could change the trajectory of the franchise.
So we would Trade Randle who is an all star to tank for a player who can potentially be an all-star?
Drafting an all-star player will not change the trajectory of the franchise. All-stars are a dime a dozen. Drafting and MVP player might change something, but there is usually only one MVP every 3 to 4 drafts and usually it takes 7 years for the player to get to that level.
You got to stop looking at fantasies and think about building with what we already have.
I get your point. But moving Randle now at an all-time high as far potentially getting great assets in return could be the right move. I don't believe we'll win in all with Randle in a Knicks uniform. He is a great player (this year), but I don't even see him as a #2 on a championship team. #3, I could go with that. Plus he's older than our young core. Another reason it could be good to move him if we can get into the top 5. I believe there is franchise player talent in this draft. It obviously won't be all 5 of them, but one or two could be franchise players.
If we could luck into getting into the top 5 (because we drop this year), and also trade Randle to get another spot in the top 5, that would be incredible.
What's a great asset? A (potential) top 5 pick? Which with the way the odds are is EXTREMELY difficult to guarantee right now even if the team is a bottom 5 team.
And here is the top 5 picks from every draft since 2000 up to 2019 (not fair to judge the 2020 prospects yet).
What ground shaking franchise turning players were selected in the top 5 in that 20 year span? Now how many flubs were picked in the top 5? I get that folks love the fantasy of being able to draft a franchise changing player but those don't grow on trees and aren't as obvious as people think they are.
AND 19 of these 20 drafts were held BEFORE the NBA changed the lottery rules to make it even harder to tank and get a top 3 pick. You guys really need to go through the list and let reality sink in a bit. I've bolded the franchise changing guys (at least guys that I consider franchise changing). These are the guys considered superstars and that are perennial ALL NBA guys. That's 13 guys out of 100 top 5 picks over the past 20 drafts and only 6 of them were "obvious" enough to be drafted 1st overall. Then when you combine the possibility of lucking into the right draft and picking the right guy? That's astronomical.
2019
1. Zion Williamson
2. Ja Morant
3. RJ Barrett
4. De'Andre Hunter
5. Darius Garland
2018
1. DeAndre Ayton
2. Marvin Bagley
3. Luka Doncic
4. Trae Young
5. Mo Bamba
2017
1. Markelle Fultz
2. Lonzo Ball
3. Jayson Tatum
4. Josh Jackson
5. De'Aron Fox
2016
1. Ben Simmons
2. Brandon Ingram
3. Jaylen Brown
4. Dragan Bender
5. Chris Dunn
2015
1. Karl Anthony Towns
2. D'Angelo Russell
3. Jahlil Okafor
4. Kristaps Porzingis
5. Mario Hezonja
2014
1. Andrew Wiggins
2. Jabari Parker
3. Joel Embiid
4. Aaron Gordon
5. Dante Exum
2013
1. Anthony Bennet
2. Victor Oladipo
3. Otto Porter
4. Cody Zeller
5. Alex Len
2012
1. Anthony Davis
2. Michael Kidd-Gilchrist
3. Bradley Beal
4. Dion Waiters
5. Thomas Robinson
2011
1. Kyrie Irving
2. Derrick Williams
3. Enes Kanter
4. Tristan Thompson
5. Jonas Valanciunas
2010
1. John Wall
2. Evan Turner
3. Derrick Favors
4. Wesley Johnson
5. DeMarcus Cousins
2009
1. Blake Griffin
2. Hasheem Thabeet
3. James Harden
4. Tyreke Evans
5. Ricky Rubio
2008
1. Derrick Rose
2. Michael Beasley
3. OJ Mayo
4. Russell Westbrook
5. Kevin Love
2007
1. Greg Oden
2. Kevin Durant
3. Al Horford
4. Mike Conley
5. Jeff Green
2006
1. Andrea Bargnani
2. LaMarcus Aldridge
3. Adam Morrison
4. Tyrus Thomas
5. Shelden Williams
2005
1. Andrew Bogut
2. Marvin Williams
3. Deron Williams
4. Chris Paul
5. Raymond Felton
2004
1. Dwight Howard
2. Emeka Okafor
3. Ben Gordon
4. Shaun Livingston
5. Devin Harris
2003
1. Lebron James
2. Darko Milicic
3. Carmelo Anthony
4. Chris Bosh
5. Dwayne Wade
2002
1. Yao Ming
2. Jay Williams
3. Mike Dunleavy
4. Drew Gooden
5. Nikoloz Tskitishvilli
2001
1. Kwame Brown
2. Tyson Chandler
3. Pau Gasol
4. Eddy Curry
5. Jason Richardson
2000
1. Kenyon Martin
2. Stromile Swift
3. Darius Miles
4. Marcus Fizer
5. Mike MIller
Again it's not near as easy as some of you guys are thinking to be able to draft a player that can turn your franchise around (more than Julius Randle has) "simply" by tanking and/or getting a possible top 5 pick. Even IF you luck into the 26 or so percent chance at a top 3 pick. And not only that but it has to be in the right draft AND you have to be able to pick the right guy and not the dud (more chance of dud than stud in every draft top 5 except 2003). And even from the greatest draft in NBA history (2003) it took 3 of the top 5 picks to band together (by free agency and managing cap as well as have reasons for these top 5 players to come to your team...see what I've been saying) to win a championship. And even a top 5 pick that will go down as one of the top 3-5 players in Knick history couldn't do **** all by himself.
There is only 1 guy on this list that consists of 100 players across 20 years that can single handedly change a franchise all by his lonesome. And that's your once in a generation (in this case 2 generations) guy. And even he couldn't win **** until he got at least one other superstar player to join him. If it's EXTREMELY hard to even draft one superstar player (see above), what do you think the odds of draft 2 superstar players are AND to do so within the timline of that 1st superstar player?
Yes...it can happen. But so can just about anything. I can find out tomorrow that I've the heir to the Gamestop fortune. Doesn't mean it's remotely easy to plan for.
Again, if it was that easy to tank for success or that a tank plan is a great plan then A LOT more teams would be following that plan that doesn't have one of these words tattooed to the front of their jerseys: Lakers, Clippers, Nets, Nuggets.
So what you are proposing is the Knicks trade a proven 26 year old NBA All-Star caliber player who appear to be just hitting his stride and his prime for a shot at MAYBE drafting someone that could turn out to be of similar caliber 3, 4, 5 years from now but most likely drafting someone that is worse (just look at the past 20 years) with a miniscule chance that you land someone clearly better?