Official Trade Thread -- Part XL

[nate33]

What exactly do you guys mean by “playmaking wing”? I don’t remember the Spurs, Warriors, or Mavericks having a ball handling/playmaking wing.

I mean someone with SF size but who can also lead his team in assists, at least in the playoffs.

Lebron, Kawhi and Butler all qualify, as do Jordan, Bird, Magic. The other way to do it is with an All-Time-Great big man. Duncan, Shaq, Durant and Dirk qualify, as does Hakeem.

The only teams that had neither of these were the 2016 Warriors and the Pistons (Billups and Isiah). So 4 teams in 40 years. And those 3 teams had insane depth with their 4th best player being better than an average team's 2nd best player.

[payitforward]

If we are a playoff team, should we try to trade for... Christian Wood? Look at his stats before he was injured... https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/w/woodch01.html - they're absurdly good - and he's a PF/C. If he kept that up, he might've made the All-Star team. He's expected to be back right after the All-Star break. Signed for 2 more years - at 13.7 mil and 14.3 mil. We have some young assets. But would Houston even consider trading him?

It would have been great to sign Christian Wood when you & I (& maybe a few others?) were repeatedly pointing his way & asking for him. But, I can't see why Houston would have any interest in trading him.

I don't know who is running the Rockets now, but so far he seems to be doing an excellent job beginning to rebuild.

[payitforward]

We do a lot of speculating on Beal’s thought process based on nothing at all. By all indications, he loves DC and wants to be here for the rest of his career. We should be focused on building a championship team around him and nothing else.

No we shouldn’t. How many elite young players stick around for years/all of their prime on non playoff teams and don’t budge? It is x-files level rare. I don’t bet on outliers that rare ever.

What happens when Beal opts out in 2022 and doesn't leave... instead signs a 5 year max?

Well, the first thing that happens is that we look at our payroll & find that we owe @$140m to 6 guys.

Then we try to figure out how we are going to re-sign Rui (assuming he's panned out well). Then we look forward a year & find the same problem recur -- this time with Deni.

[queridiculo]

What exactly do you guys mean by “playmaking wing”? I don’t remember the Spurs, Warriors, or Mavericks having a ball handling/playmaking wing.

I mean someone with SF size but who can also lead his team in assists, at least in the playoffs.

Lebron, Kawhi and Butler all qualify, as do Jordan, Bird, Magic. The other way to do it is with an All-Time-Great big man. Duncan, Shaq, Durant and Dirk qualify, as does Hakeem.

The only teams that had neither of these were the 2016 Warriors and the Pistons (Billups and Isiah). So 4 teams in 40 years. And those 3 teams had insane depth with their 4th best player being better than an average team's 2nd best player.

I mean, hello, Manu Ginóbili??

Odd take @NatP4.

[queridiculo]

No we shouldn’t. How many elite young players stick around for years/all of their prime on non playoff teams and don’t budge? It is x-files level rare. I don’t bet on outliers that rare ever.

What happens when Beal opts out in 2022 and doesn't leave... instead signs a 5 year max?

Well, the first thing that happens is that we look at our payroll & find that we owe @$140m to 6 guys.

Then we try to figure out how we are going to re-sign Rui (assuming he's panned out well). Then we look forward a year & find the same problem recur -- this time with Deni.

Your numbers are a bit off.

Even if you add the two rookie scale contracts the Wizards would be at $128 million in 2022 and 7 players under contract.

The first year of Beal's 10 year vet max deal would "only" be a $7 million raise, and the following season the Wizards have at least a max salary cap slot and then some with Westbrooks deal expiring.

[NatP4]

What exactly do you guys mean by “playmaking wing”? I don’t remember the Spurs, Warriors, or Mavericks having a ball handling/playmaking wing.

I mean someone with SF size but who can also lead his team in assists, at least in the playoffs.

Lebron, Kawhi and Butler all qualify, as do Jordan, Bird, Magic. The other way to do it is with an All-Time-Great big man. Duncan, Shaq, Durant and Dirk qualify, as does Hakeem.

The only teams that had neither of these were the 2016 Warriors and the Pistons (Billups and Isiah). So 4 teams in 40 years. And those 3 teams had insane depth with their 4th best player being better than an average team's 2nd best player.

I mean, hello, Manu Ginóbili??

Odd take @NatP4.

I mentioned Manu. He doesn’t fall into this category that Nate is talking about.

[nate33]

What exactly do you guys mean by “playmaking wing”? I don’t remember the Spurs, Warriors, or Mavericks having a ball handling/playmaking wing.

I mean someone with SF size but who can also lead his team in assists, at least in the playoffs.

Lebron, Kawhi and Butler all qualify, as do Jordan, Bird, Magic. The other way to do it is with an All-Time-Great big man. Duncan, Shaq, Durant and Dirk qualify, as does Hakeem.

The only teams that had neither of these were the 2016 Warriors and the Pistons (Billups and Isiah). So 4 teams in 40 years. And those 3 teams had insane depth with their 4th best player being better than an average team's 2nd best player.

I mean, hello, Manu Ginóbili??

Odd take @NatP4.

I don't consider Manu a "big wing". He's a guard. I don't think San Antonio wins a title with Manu as the best player. He's really good though, just like Beal. Give Beal Tim Duncan and they could win some championships too.

[payitforward]

What happens when Beal opts out in 2022 and doesn't leave... instead signs a 5 year max?

Well, the first thing that happens is that we look at our payroll & find that we owe @$140m to 6 guys.

Then we try to figure out how we are going to re-sign Rui (assuming he's panned out well). Then we look forward a year & find the same problem recur -- this time with Deni.

Your numbers are a bit off.

Even if you add the two rookie scale contracts the Wizards would be at $128 million in 2022 and 7 players under contract....

You're right -- but that is only b/c I did the arithmetic in my head & counted somebody twice!

edit: ...while watching Midnight Diner on Netflix.

OTOH, this assumes that we add only 1 year salaries next year, since even picking up options on Bonga & Gill, we are at $121m for 2021-22 with 9 guys.

...the following season the Wizards have at least a max salary cap slot and then some with Westbrooks deal expiring.

The following year, assuming Beal at @$45m off the top of my head, @$19m for the 3 R1 picks between now & then, Bertans @$17m, & Deni at $6.25m, we're at @$87m for 6 guys -- plus whatever we have done with Rui. Let's assume he's done really well & is costing us $15m on a new contract. $102m for 7 guys.

Add a max contract, & it's what... $130m/8 guys? ...way too early to know how this turns out....

[thricethefun]

We need to give up the pipe dream of being a playoff team. We have 1 good player (Beal) some average players (Bertans, Neto, Lopez) and a bunch of below average players (Westbrook, Rui, Deni, Wagner, Bonga, Troy Brown). We need a complete talent overhaul and that starts with trading Beal for max assets and rebuild from scratch.

[TGW]

What exactly do you guys mean by “playmaking wing”? I don’t remember the Spurs, Warriors, or Mavericks having a ball handling/playmaking wing.

I mean someone with SF size but who can also lead his team in assists, at least in the playoffs.

Lebron, Kawhi and Butler all qualify, as do Jordan, Bird, Magic. The other way to do it is with an All-Time-Great big man. Duncan, Shaq, Durant and Dirk qualify, as does Hakeem.

The only teams that had neither of these were the 2016 Warriors and the Pistons (Billups and Isiah). So 4 teams in 40 years. And those 3 teams had insane depth with their 4th best player being better than an average team's 2nd best player.

I mean, hello, Manu Ginóbili??

Odd take @NatP4.

That's exactly what I was thinking. One of the greatest playmaking wings in NBA history IMO.

[gambitx777]

Westbrook while over paid by a mile is still a pretty decent player. And rui is definitely on his way up and I would consider good. Deni is 19 let's chill on calling him below average is a bit far.

We need to give up the pipe dream of being a playoff team. We have 1 good player (Beal) some average players (Bertans, Neto, Lopez) and a bunch of below average players (Westbrook, Rui, Deni, Wagner, Bonga, Troy Brown). We need a complete talent overhaul and that starts with trading Beal for max assets and rebuild from scratch.

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[prime1time]

We need to give up the pipe dream of being a playoff team. We have 1 good player (Beal) some average players (Bertans, Neto, Lopez) and a bunch of below average players (Westbrook, Rui, Deni, Wagner, Bonga, Troy Brown). We need a complete talent overhaul and that starts with trading Beal for max assets and rebuild from scratch.

So we trade Beal. Then what? We hatch our wagon to who? 20 years ago a complete tear-it-down rebuild made sense because bad teams had got great draft lottery odds. Now the odds aren't nearly that good. While people on this board don't want to acknowledge it. The most likely ending of our rebuild if we trade Beal is that we end up like the T-Wolves. #1 pick in Towns, #1 pick in Wiggins, #1 pick in Edwards. And on their way to another top pick this year. And that is with hitting on Towns. Way too many people trot out rebuild like it always works. Rebuilds work when you can draft at least one game-changing player and one really good player. Like KD, Russ and Harden. Or Embiid and Simmons. As good as the players are in this draft I don't think there's a KD or an Embiid. And even if there was an elite player, the odds of us getting one of them are low and the odds of us drafting two elite players even lower.

Now if Beal demands to be traded. Fine. But what is so taboo about trying to exhaust all options to build around Beal? Why can't we try to see if Beal can recruit a good player to come to DC? I wonder if people ever take into account the risk of engaging in a complete tear-down rebuild. You are really potentially talking about the potential for a lost decade. Look at what Minnesota has done since trading KG to Boston. They've made the playoffs once and lost 1-4 in the first round. Since trading Garnett they 360-679. People talk about rebuilding because it carries with it a shiny veneer of hope. What they ignore is the great risk that lurks beneath that nice covering of hope.

[prime1time]

I think the allure of rebuilding stems from the fact that people think, "This time we will do it right." This is flawed thinking. In fact judging from our past history, I'd say we are more likely to mess up a rebuild. Look at our organizational track record. Why should any fan have faith that our team as currently constructed could execute a rebuild? You don't think they'd take shortcuts to stop the rebuild early to get fans in the seats? If Beal wants out I'm for a rebuild because we don't have any other choice. But I will never voluntarily choose to enter a rebuild. That's like choosing to voluntarily torture myself. When was the last time that voluntarily traded away a player of Beal's caliber because they thought they'd be better off without him? And don't use examples of teams that simply weren't willing to pay their star the max/supermax. Because we would definitely pay Beal that.

[payitforward]

Prime, you're right in a whole bunch of ways, but -- to me at least -- there's one fatal flaw in this thinking: rebuilding has no "allure;" the only reason you rebuild -- whether it's a house or a team -- is that what you've got is falling apart.

So, if you think, "the Wizards are pretty good; if the young guys we already have continue to develop, & we make a clever move somewhere to get a good veteran or two..., why we could contend in the East!", then you don't think we are forced to rebuild.

Only thing is... I don't think that's true! I don't think this team, as constituted, is a threat to contend in the East. The main reason is that Russ is obviously not the player he was 2-3 years ago, & the level of his play is heading in the wrong direction! That's not criticism, it's just the normal career arc of an NBA player.

The other way I think you are incorrect is that... we ARE rebuilding. We don't have to decide to rebuild.

We've got exactly 3 players on our roster who were with the team 18 months ago. & 2 of the 3 (Brown & Bryant) had just completed their first year as Wizards. IOW, we have only 1 guy -- Brad -- who was with the team 3 years ago.

If you replace 12 of your 15 players in a year & a half, you had better be rebuilding! Otherwise... what exactly are you doing?

The main way you are right, it seems to me, is that it's easy to mess up a rebuild -- in fact, you will always do that in some degree. After all, when you acquire young players, mostly in the draft, not all of them are going to develop in the way you envision.

The problem is... there is really no alternative to rebuilding. We've got 3 guys making $85m this year. That leaves $48m for the other 12 players -- you can't just go out & sign the FAs you need to compete for a title.

& even if you try to, you'll make mistakes in that as well. Two off seasons ago, nate & I were agreeing that Noah Vonleh would be a terrific FA pick-up. He just got waived last week!

[NatP4]

I think the allure of rebuilding stems from the fact that people think, "This time we will do it right." This is flawed thinking. In fact judging from our past history, I'd say we are more likely to mess up a rebuild. Look at our organizational track record. Why should any fan have faith that our team as currently constructed could execute a rebuild? You don't think they'd take shortcuts to stop the rebuild early to get fans in the seats? If Beal wants out I'm for a rebuild because we don't have any other choice. But I will never voluntarily choose to enter a rebuild. That's like choosing to voluntarily torture myself. When was the last time that voluntarily traded away a player of Beal's caliber because they thought they'd be better off without him? And don't use examples of teams that simply weren't willing to pay their star the max/supermax. Because we would definitely pay Beal that.

Specifically, what is the path to a championship without a full rebuild? Enlighten me.

[NatP4]

It was a nice run and the team became fun to watch again, but this next 7-8 game stretch is insane. I wouldn’t be surprised if they lose all of them. The playoffs are not happening. The good news is that the stretch comes to an end just before the trade deadline. Hopefully a 13-28 record will push them to be sellers instead of buyers.

The off-season will be about the big decisions(Brooks, Beal, Sheppard, Westbrook), but the immediate future is about getting whatever assets you can for Lopez, Bertans, Neto, Ish, Robinson, and Wagner(unless they plan to re sign him)

Loading up on 2nd round picks goes a long way.

[Ruzious]

It was a nice run and the team became fun to watch again, but this next 7-8 game stretch is insane. I wouldn’t be surprised if they lose all of them. The playoffs are not happening. The good news is that the stretch comes to an end just before the trade deadline. Hopefully a 13-28 record will push them to be sellers instead of buyers.

The off-season will be about the big decisions(Brooks, Beal, Sheppard, Westbrook), but the immediate future is about getting whatever assets you can for Lopez, Bertans, Neto, Ish, Robinson, and Wagner(unless they plan to re sign him)

Loading up on 2nd round picks goes a long way.

I remember 2 years ago when the Bucks traded 4 - yes 4 - 2nd round picks for Mirotic - they wanted a big guy who could make deep 3's. I'm thinking we should be able to get 3 2nd's (and hopefully not an awful contract) for Bertans.

[pcbothwel]

It was a nice run and the team became fun to watch again, but this next 7-8 game stretch is insane. I wouldn’t be surprised if they lose all of them. The playoffs are not happening. The good news is that the stretch comes to an end just before the trade deadline. Hopefully a 13-28 record will push them to be sellers instead of buyers.

The off-season will be about the big decisions(Brooks, Beal, Sheppard, Westbrook), but the immediate future is about getting whatever assets you can for Lopez, Bertans, Neto, Ish, Robinson, and Wagner(unless they plan to re sign him)

Loading up on 2nd round picks goes a long way.

I remember 2 years ago when the Bucks traded 4 - yes 4 - 2nd round picks for Mirotic - they wanted a big guy who could make deep 3's. I'm thinking we should be able to get 3 2nd's (and hopefully not an awful contract) for Bertans.

Hard Pass. 3 picks in the 50's does nothing for me and are available every year. Mirotic was an expiring and they had to make a move.
A single first is not only a better asset, but gives us more flexibility with us not being able to trade a 1st for a few years.

[Ruzious]

It was a nice run and the team became fun to watch again, but this next 7-8 game stretch is insane. I wouldn’t be surprised if they lose all of them. The playoffs are not happening. The good news is that the stretch comes to an end just before the trade deadline. Hopefully a 13-28 record will push them to be sellers instead of buyers.

The off-season will be about the big decisions(Brooks, Beal, Sheppard, Westbrook), but the immediate future is about getting whatever assets you can for Lopez, Bertans, Neto, Ish, Robinson, and Wagner(unless they plan to re sign him)

Loading up on 2nd round picks goes a long way.

I remember 2 years ago when the Bucks traded 4 - yes 4 - 2nd round picks for Mirotic - they wanted a big guy who could make deep 3's. I'm thinking we should be able to get 3 2nd's (and hopefully not an awful contract) for Bertans.

Hard Pass. 3 picks in the 50's does nothing for me and are available every year. Mirotic was an expiring and they had to make a move.
A single first is not only a better asset, but gives us more flexibility with us not being able to trade a 1st for a few years.

Yeah, I don't remember saying the 2nds had to be in the 50's.

[NatP4]

Bertans is the only veteran that could return a 1st round pick IMO. Boston is reportedly interested in Grant&Vucevic, so you know they are open to trading draft picks/assets