538's new trade machine

[dalton749]

Kyle has got to go to a contender. I want to be interested deep into the playoffs, not just for the first round and second if we get extremely lucky.

[Merit]

I would:

1) keep kyle

2) do the following trade with Houston:

Norm/McCaw/Baynes + pick (not sure what kind of pick - but whatever) for Dipo/David Nwaba

Raps improve to 8% odds for the chip.

3) add drummond via buyout

Raps improve to 19% odds to win the chip, or the best odds in the league.

4) Adjust the rotations for more boucher

Raps improve to 21% odds for the title, by far the best in the league.

Note: all this works in terms of the cap as well.

[dacrusha]

Btw... Powell and Bembry for Maxey, Thybulle and Scott plus pick(s) is way better for the sixers according to that and ups them to 10% to win it all.

I'm gonna need someone to explain to me, why Maxey's name appears in almost every single thread here.

Maxey had one good game where all the Sixer starters sat - and that’s all people remember.

[Johnny Bball]

Btw... Powell and Bembry for Maxey, Thybulle and Scott plus pick(s) is way better for the sixers according to that and ups them to 10% to win it all.

I'm gonna need someone to explain to me, why Maxey's name appears in almost every single thread here.

Maxey had one good game where all the Sixer starters sat - and that’s all people remember.

Take the box because it might be a boat.

[Harcore Fenton Mun]

Chris Paul: Suns pick 12th, GSW was 20th (Oubre Jr), Wolves 17th (Ricky Rubio).

Sixer's two picks 25-30, one might not even convey. Maxey was 21st

Sixer's isn't close in terms of return when you factor in what CP's getting paid.

[douggood]

Chris Paul: Suns pick 12th, GSW was 20th (Oubre Jr), Wolves 17th (Ricky Rubio).

Sixer's two picks 25-30, one might not even convey. Maxey was 21st

Sixer's isn't close in terms of return when you factor in what CP's getting paid.

Suns did not give up 12th pick.
And theydid not flip oubre for 20th pick, it's gsw pick protected till 20th this year otherwise it's min 2nd rounder.

Right now gsw pick 14, so oubre was traded for min 2nd, so 31-32 pick in draft.

And your last part is so wrong. Okc traded rubio + 24 + 27 to move up to 17.

[Harcore Fenton Mun]

Suns did not give up 12th pick.

"Phoenix's 1st round pick to Oklahoma City protected for selections 1-12 in 2022"

[douggood]

Suns did not give up 12th pick.

"Phoenix's 1st round pick to Oklahoma City protected for selections 1-12 in 2022"

A future protected first
Pick 31

Was basically the return for Chris paul.

[Valard]

What is this maxey everyone keeps talking about?

[Metallikid]

Indeed. I expect a Chris Paul like return.. or pass...

CP3 was traded for a
a future protected 1st
kelly oubre jr (expiring) was flipped to gsw for a top 20 protected 1st this year otherwise min 2nd this year
and rubio


Paul has 2 full years, lowry has 1/2 season rental potentially.

so kelly oubre is same value as apx the 27th pick this year
rubio was salary balast for the extra year of paul = same as expring danny green/scott
future protected 1st > maxey, but paul is better than klow.


if paul is he benchmark 2021 1st + maxey + fillers should be enough.

yup. thats why people are delusional to ask for more in any trade.

some people are like the old men yelling at clouds: "its like give me the universe or i'll keep Lowry for myself, I swear I'll do it, don't make me do it" type of mentality nowadays.

Lowry at this point and time is definitely more valuable to this year's Raptors. but it would be a shame for him to leave because he wants to win another championship, it won't be in Toronto and he may just leave to sign the MLE with a contender.

there is always that risk if you leave it to free agency but a sign and trade can be a possible solution too right?

Kyle has never put winning above the bag, and he sure as hell wouldn't now when it involves leaving the franchise that he is the greatest player of. There is not a chance he walks for the MLE. If he doesn't get traded, which he likely won't, he's going to re-sign because we're going to make it worth his while to re-sign.

[Harcore Fenton Mun]

A future protected first
Pick 31

Was basically the return for Chris paul.

The first was protected 1-12, Oubre Jr. was flipped for a pick 1-20 protected.

Rubio was flipped for "James Johnson and the draft rights to Aleksej Pokuševski (17th overall)"

Plus, factor in that CP is going to make 44 mill per at one point.

[douggood]

A future protected first
Pick 31

Was basically the return for Chris paul.

The first was protected 1-12, Oubre Jr. was flipped for a pick 1-20 protected.

Rubio was flipped for "James Johnson and the draft rights to Aleksej Pokuševski (17th overall)"

Plus, factor in that CP is going to make 44 mill per at one point.

So a protected future 1st
And oubre for gsw 1st this year protected pick 20, otherwise it's min 2nd this year.( Since gsw pick is 14th right now it will be min 2nd, so the 31st pick.

And rubio was traded along with pick 25 and 27 for 17.

So back to my original point
A future 1st and pick 31 is basically the return for cp3.

Rubio was salty blast. 44 mil cp3 less 15 mil rubio = 30$ net salary from suns point of view.

[libertyYYZ]

So FiveThirtyEight has just released a Trade Machine (https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/nba-trades-2021/) which lets you move players around from team to team (you can only choose two teams, but you can remove players, or type players from third and fourth teams in).

A very interesting thing happens when you move Kyle Lowry to other teams. Philly, Heat both increase their chances of winning a Chip by about 5x. This is even after removing Green, Thybulle, etc.. or Herro, Precious, etc...

Go figure...

Swap Baynes for Capela and we're at 18% chance to be champs.

[Harcore Fenton Mun]

So a protected future 1st
And oubre for gsw 1st this year protected pick 20, otherwise it's min 2nd this year.( Since gsw pick is 14th right now it will be min 2nd, so the 31st pick.

And rubio was traded along with pick 25 and 27 for 17.

So back to my original point
A future 1st and pick 31 is basically the return for cp3.

Rubio was salty blast. 44 mil cp3 less 15 mil rubio = 30$ net salary from suns point of view.

If we're just counting firsts, they got three basically. Plus, whatever you get for the difference in salaries (a lot).

But I wouldn't be looking at taking less than something in the mid teens value, if it's a package of picks. Like if CP is worth a pick in the teens, I wouldn't take less.

[Merit]

Just keep lowry and go for it this year. Lots of ways to still stay competitive. We can be a lower seed and still make noise.

[Ackshun]

Btw... Powell and Bembry for Maxey, Thybulle and Scott plus pick(s) is way better for the sixers according to that and ups them to 10% to win it all.

I'm gonna need someone to explain to me, why Maxey's name appears in almost every single thread here.

Maxey had one good game where all the Sixer starters sat - and that’s all people remember.

LOL. A game they lost and he was a big minus in the +/-

[Ackshun]

I'm gonna need someone to explain to me, why Maxey's name appears in almost every single thread here.

Maxey had one good game where all the Sixer starters sat - and that’s all people remember.

Take the box because it might be a boat.

It could also just be an empty box.

[Johnny Bball]

Maxey had one good game where all the Sixer starters sat - and that’s all people remember.

Take the box because it might be a boat.

It could also just be an empty box.

Yeah but you could have a boat or the box might be a boat!

And fwiw Ii think a pick or two is including in either just in case you don't get me