Official Trade Thread -- Part XL

[Dark Faze]

We need to give up the pipe dream of being a playoff team. We have 1 good player (Beal) some average players (Bertans, Neto, Lopez) and a bunch of below average players (Westbrook, Rui, Deni, Wagner, Bonga, Troy Brown). We need a complete talent overhaul and that starts with trading Beal for max assets and rebuild from scratch.

Our FO isn't good enough. That should be beyond obvious: Not getting a first for Bertans, moving a pick to get a *worse* contract than the Wall contract, committing 5 years to Bertans, sticking with a coach who is atrocious in every aspect (developing your players as well as even a win now approach), using our free agent dollars in a way that rivals the "summer of KD" off-season---Tommy is terrible. There's absolutely no reason to believe we're "waiting" for a better FO solution before making big moves either. Yall remember when Ted allowed Ernie to make the massive decision to trade Otto + Kelly knowing full well they'd be acquiring a new GM in the summer?

With an owner like Ted, picks are your only chance. You have to pray that during a rebuild you get high picks in drafts with can't miss, superstar talent. KD level players. He got maybe a top 2, top 3 all time goal scorer in Ovechkin for the Caps. He made it happen eventually to his credit, but it took like 14 years .

Turning this Wizards team into a contender would be difficult for a great GM. With Ted controlling all of that? Naw. Get rid of everyone and pray he actually conducts a strong search for someone to architect the next era.

[pcbothwel]

I remember 2 years ago when the Bucks traded 4 - yes 4 - 2nd round picks for Mirotic - they wanted a big guy who could make deep 3's. I'm thinking we should be able to get 3 2nd's (and hopefully not an awful contract) for Bertans.

Hard Pass. 3 picks in the 50's does nothing for me and are available every year. Mirotic was an expiring and they had to make a move.
A single first is not only a better asset, but gives us more flexibility with us not being able to trade a 1st for a few years.

Yeah, I don't remember saying the 2nds had to be in the 50's.

You're right. The Bucks traded two picks in the 50's (Their own + Denver) along with our two 2nds in 2020 & 2021.
So:
2019: Pick 57 (Denver)
2020: Pick 39(Ours) & 60 (Bucks)
2021: Pick 36 (Ours)

Ehhh, they got lucky that we bottomed out so bad. If we were simply in the playoff hunt in the East this year, then thats 1 pick in the late 30's a year away, and another pick in the early 40's two years away. Any pick after 54/55 means nothing to me.

Remember, at the time the trade was made the Buck & Nuggets were two of the top 4 teams in the league with young, cost controlled talent. NOP knew these picks were in the late 50's.
The Wiz had just lost Wall to his original Heel injury, but had not torn his achillies and Beal was breaking out in the middle of his 2nd straight AS appearance. While we didnt look like contenders, we very much appeared to be 7th-9th seed team quite easily moving forward.

It would be like trading Bertans for Cap Filler and:
2021: Nets 2nd
2022: Hawks + 76ers 2nd
2023: Hawks 2nd

That would be a really bad return.

[prime1time]

If we are a playoff team, should we try to trade for... Christian Wood? Look at his stats before he was injured... https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/w/woodch01.html - they're absurdly good - and he's a PF/C. If he kept that up, he might've made the All-Star team. He's expected to be back right after the All-Star break. Signed for 2 more years - at 13.7 mil and 14.3 mil. We have some young assets. But would Houston even consider trading him?

Unless you are willing to talk first-round picks, it's moot. And I would prefer to keep our first-round picks. I don't think there's anything wrong with just making the playoffs this year and then re-evaluating in the offseason. Unless an opportunity presents itself to make a legitimate all-in move to make us contenders, I wouldn't consider any trades.

[Ruzious]

Hard Pass. 3 picks in the 50's does nothing for me and are available every year. Mirotic was an expiring and they had to make a move.
A single first is not only a better asset, but gives us more flexibility with us not being able to trade a 1st for a few years.

Yeah, I don't remember saying the 2nds had to be in the 50's.

You're right. The Bucks traded two picks in the 50's (Their own + Denver) along with our two 2nds in 2020 & 2021.
So:
2019: Pick 57 (Denver)
2020: Pick 39(Ours) & 60 (Bucks)
2021: Pick 36 (Ours)

Ehhh, they got lucky that we bottomed out so bad. If we were simply in the playoff hunt in the East this year, then thats 1 pick in the late 30's a year away, and another pick in the early 40's two years away. Any pick after 54/55 means nothing to me.

Remember, at the time the trade was made the Buck & Nuggets were two of the top 4 teams in the league with young, cost controlled talent. NOP knew these picks were in the late 50's.
The Wiz had just lost Wall to his original Heel injury, but had not torn his achillies and Beal was breaking out in the middle of his 2nd straight AS appearance. While we didnt look like contenders, we very much appeared to be 7th-9th seed team quite easily moving forward.

It would be like trading Bertans for Cap Filler and:
2021: Nets 2nd
2022: Hawks + 76ers 2nd
2023: Hawks 2nd

That would be a really bad return.

What's this about? I didn't say a Wiz trade had to be exactly like the Bucks trade for Mirotic. I even said I was going for 3 picks instead of 4. You're taking my post wrong. It was just meant as an example.

[Ruzious]

If we are a playoff team, should we try to trade for... Christian Wood? Look at his stats before he was injured... https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/w/woodch01.html - they're absurdly good - and he's a PF/C. If he kept that up, he might've made the All-Star team. He's expected to be back right after the All-Star break. Signed for 2 more years - at 13.7 mil and 14.3 mil. We have some young assets. But would Houston even consider trading him?

Unless you are willing to talk first-round picks, it's moot. And I would prefer to keep our first-round picks. I don't think there's anything wrong with just making the playoffs this year and then re-evaluating in the offseason. Unless an opportunity presents itself to make a legitimate all-in move to make us contenders, I wouldn't consider any trades.

That's one way to look at it, and I'm not saying you're wrong. I think it's unlikely the Wiz make the playoffs - but certainly possible.

[NatP4]

If we are a playoff team, should we try to trade for... Christian Wood? Look at his stats before he was injured... https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/w/woodch01.html - they're absurdly good - and he's a PF/C. If he kept that up, he might've made the All-Star team. He's expected to be back right after the All-Star break. Signed for 2 more years - at 13.7 mil and 14.3 mil. We have some young assets. But would Houston even consider trading him?

Unless you are willing to talk first-round picks, it's moot. And I would prefer to keep our first-round picks. I don't think there's anything wrong with just making the playoffs this year and then re-evaluating in the offseason. Unless an opportunity presents itself to make a legitimate all-in move to make us contenders, I wouldn't consider any trades.

They aren’t making the playoffs. If they do, it’s a first round sweep to a team that actually plays defense moves the ball.

The only thing they should be focused on, is turning all of the players that aren’t a part of the future, into assets for the future.

[prime1time]

I think the allure of rebuilding stems from the fact that people think, "This time we will do it right." This is flawed thinking. In fact judging from our past history, I'd say we are more likely to mess up a rebuild. Look at our organizational track record. Why should any fan have faith that our team as currently constructed could execute a rebuild? You don't think they'd take shortcuts to stop the rebuild early to get fans in the seats? If Beal wants out I'm for a rebuild because we don't have any other choice. But I will never voluntarily choose to enter a rebuild. That's like choosing to voluntarily torture myself. When was the last time that voluntarily traded away a player of Beal's caliber because they thought they'd be better off without him? And don't use examples of teams that simply weren't willing to pay their star the max/supermax. Because we would definitely pay Beal that.

Specifically, what is the path to a championship without a full rebuild? Enlighten me.

I've made my point clear several times. Championship contenders come down to elite players. 4 years ago the Lakers were in dissarray. Last year they won the championship. What happened in between, they got LBJ and then they got AD. Beal at worst is capable of being a 1A player on championship team. So the way forward is to stop focusing on what our record is and to find a way to bring in a legit 1B star. You can knock this approach but how close were we to getting either Zion or Morant? I would rather tank this season and try to get a higher pick than to engage in a full rebuild. This pick has stars. Cunningham/Beal or Mobley/Beal or Suggs/Beal could all be a starting point. And then you use that to bring in another star. Obviously, the Wizards are committed to trying to make the playoffs so we'll let things play out. But you wanted my answer and I gave it to you.

How many teams have undergone full rebuilds in the last 20 years and won championships? How many teams have used 1 star to get another star(s) and then won a championship? The only thing a full rebuild guarantee is years of ineptitude. And like I said before.The year before the Lakers got AD they didn't make the playoffs. They got AD championship. Heat were struggling and only had D Wade. They were so bad they got the 2nd pick in the draft. D Wade recruits LBJ and Bosh. 2 championships. Kyrie on the Cavs, they are terrible. LBJ comes back and he brings Kevin Love, championship. Kobe demands a trade. Instead of trading him, Lakers bring in Paul Gasol. 2 Championships. Celtics struggling with Paul Pierce. He's thinking of demanding a trade, but they decide to keep him, and instead bring in 2 stars - KG and Ray Allen. Giving up whatever they have to. Championship.

I'd be willing to give up any player and almost any amount of draft picks if it meant having the opportunity to bring in a second star for Beal.

[Dat2U]

If we are a playoff team, should we try to trade for... Christian Wood? Look at his stats before he was injured... https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/w/woodch01.html - they're absurdly good - and he's a PF/C. If he kept that up, he might've made the All-Star team. He's expected to be back right after the All-Star break. Signed for 2 more years - at 13.7 mil and 14.3 mil. We have some young assets. But would Houston even consider trading him?

Unless you are willing to talk first-round picks, it's moot. And I would prefer to keep our first-round picks. I don't think there's anything wrong with just making the playoffs this year and then re-evaluating in the offseason. Unless an opportunity presents itself to make a legitimate all-in move to make us contenders, I wouldn't consider any trades.

That's one way to look at it, and I'm not saying you're wrong. I think it's unlikely the Wiz make the playoffs - but certainly possible.

Houston would be foolish to trade him based on what we saw this season. Only a handful of bigs in the league have his skill level and it looked like he was making major strides defensively. I would give up a lottery pick in a heartbeat. I think he's that good and his deal is reasonable.

[NatP4]

Prime, that’s a non answer. How are we getting another star while paying a washed up Russell Westbrook 50 million? How are we going to compete for a championship before Beal is an unrestricted FA?

We luck into a top 3 pick and pair a 19-20 year old rookie with Beal, still have no cap space. What’s the plan?

They either remain mediocre and try to hit home runs on the picks they do have, continue to draft in the 8-12 range, or trade Beal and embrace a full rebuild. Nothing is happening until Westbrook is no longer a wizard

[Ruzious]

Unless you are willing to talk first-round picks, it's moot. And I would prefer to keep our first-round picks. I don't think there's anything wrong with just making the playoffs this year and then re-evaluating in the offseason. Unless an opportunity presents itself to make a legitimate all-in move to make us contenders, I wouldn't consider any trades.

That's one way to look at it, and I'm not saying you're wrong. I think it's unlikely the Wiz make the playoffs - but certainly possible.

Houston would be foolish to trade him based on what we saw this season. Only a handful of bigs in the league have his skill level and it looked like he was making major strides defensively. I would give up a lottery pick in a heartbeat. I think he's that good and his deal is reasonable.

Yup, you're preaching to the choir about his talent. I'd offer more than our FRP for him.

[Dat2U]

That's one way to look at it, and I'm not saying you're wrong. I think it's unlikely the Wiz make the playoffs - but certainly possible.

Houston would be foolish to trade him based on what we saw this season. Only a handful of bigs in the league have his skill level and it looked like he was making major strides defensively. I would give up a lottery pick in a heartbeat. I think he's that good and his deal is reasonable.

Yup, you're preaching to the choir about his talent. I'd offer more than our FRP for him.

1st & Bryant/Hachimura w/o hesitation.

[prime1time]

Prime, that’s a non answer. How are we getting another star while paying a washed up Russell Westbrook 50 million? How are we going to compete for a championship before Beal is an unrestricted FA?

We luck into a top 3 pick and pair a 19-20 year old rookie with Beal, still have no cap space. What’s the plan?

They either remain mediocre and try to hit home runs on the picks they do have, continue to draft in the 8-12 range, or trade Beal and embrace a full rebuild. Nothing is happening until Westbrook is no longer a wizard

I'm so tired of hearing about unmovable contracts. First of all, all it takes is one first-round draft pick and Westbrook could be gone. The Wizards could still trade 3 first-round picks, 3 first-round pick swaps, Advija, Rui, Brown Jr, Bonga, Thomas Bryant and anything else on our roster for a star. The issue isn't moving Westbrook and it's not even our lack of assets. It's finding a star that wants to come. I'm so committed to building around Beal, I am willing to keep him all of next year and plan a strategy around him opting out. He opts out. Another star signs. Then we resign Beal for max. We can go over the cap to resign Beal.

Also, cap space is overblown. When you're willing to trade whatever it takes, you can make cap space. 3 way trade to Bertans goes to a team for a FRP, Westbrook and FRP goes to a rebuilding team, and we get back expiring. There are so many ways to move Westbrook once you accept that he's a negative asset.

[NatP4]

Prime, that’s a non answer. How are we getting another star while paying a washed up Russell Westbrook 50 million? How are we going to compete for a championship before Beal is an unrestricted FA?

We luck into a top 3 pick and pair a 19-20 year old rookie with Beal, still have no cap space. What’s the plan?

They either remain mediocre and try to hit home runs on the picks they do have, continue to draft in the 8-12 range, or trade Beal and embrace a full rebuild. Nothing is happening until Westbrook is no longer a wizard

I'm so tired of hearing about unmovable contracts. First of all, all it takes is one first-round draft pick and Westbrook could be gone. The Wizards could still trade 3 first-round picks, 3 first-round pick swaps, Advija, Rui, Brown Jr, Bonga, Thomas Bryant and anything else on our roster for a star. The issue isn't moving Westbrook and it's not even our lack of assets. It's finding a star that wants to come. I'm so committed to building around Beal, I am willing to keep him all of next year and plan a strategy around him opting out. He opts out. Another star signs. Then we resign Beal for max. We can go over the cap to resign Beal.

Also, cap space is overblown. When you're willing to trade whatever it takes, you can make cap space. 3 way trade to Bertans goes to a team for a FRP, Westbrook and FRP goes to a rebuilding team, and we get back expiring. There are so many ways to move Westbrook once you accept that he's a negative asset.

Again, this is a non answer. How many 1st round picks do you think we have? You realize you can’t trade 1st round picks in consecutive years, right? We owe Houston our 2023 1st. What 1st round pick are we getting back for Bertans? What team wants that low 1st in exchange for eating 100 million remaining on Westbrook’s deal? What contracts do we have to take on in return? What star player are we acquiring that will put us over the top after we trade away Avdija, Rui, Bonga, Brown Jr and Bryant? How do we fill out the roster?

It sounds like you are building a roster that will AT BEST consist of Beal, Cunningham, KAT, no supporting cast, and no future assets.

[NatP4]

Why isn’t Alize Johnson in the NBA?

[Ruzious]

Why isn’t Alize Johnson in the NBA?

I thought he could be a poor man's Jimmy Butler if he put on some more muscle. He even had the hair and kinda looked like him. Great rebounder for his size. Didn't get a lot of blocks or steals.

[NatP4]

Why isn’t Alize Johnson in the NBA?

I thought he could be a poor man's Jimmy Butler if he put on some more muscle. He even had the hair and kinda looked like him. Great rebounder for his size. Didn't get a lot of blocks or steals.

15.5 rebounds 1.6 steals per 36 in the Gleague this year!! Shooting 60% on 2s. 64% TS overall. Some team should just let him play C.

[Ruzious]

Why isn’t Alize Johnson in the NBA?

I thought he could be a poor man's Jimmy Butler if he put on some more muscle. He even had the hair and kinda looked like him. Great rebounder for his size. Didn't get a lot of blocks or steals.

15.5 rebounds 1.6 steals per 36 in the Gleague this year!! Shooting 60% on 2s. 64% TS overall. Some team should just let him play C.

Looks like he's a good passer, too. NBA probably thinks he's too small for C, but on the right team - he could be an interesting PF. He's actually running their offense a lot in this video.

https://www.dailymotion.com/video/x7zdlf5

[prime1time]

Prime, that’s a non answer. How are we getting another star while paying a washed up Russell Westbrook 50 million? How are we going to compete for a championship before Beal is an unrestricted FA?

We luck into a top 3 pick and pair a 19-20 year old rookie with Beal, still have no cap space. What’s the plan?

They either remain mediocre and try to hit home runs on the picks they do have, continue to draft in the 8-12 range, or trade Beal and embrace a full rebuild. Nothing is happening until Westbrook is no longer a wizard

I'm so tired of hearing about unmovable contracts. First of all, all it takes is one first-round draft pick and Westbrook could be gone. The Wizards could still trade 3 first-round picks, 3 first-round pick swaps, Advija, Rui, Brown Jr, Bonga, Thomas Bryant and anything else on our roster for a star. The issue isn't moving Westbrook and it's not even our lack of assets. It's finding a star that wants to come. I'm so committed to building around Beal, I am willing to keep him all of next year and plan a strategy around him opting out. He opts out. Another star signs. Then we resign Beal for max. We can go over the cap to resign Beal.

Also, cap space is overblown. When you're willing to trade whatever it takes, you can make cap space. 3 way trade to Bertans goes to a team for a FRP, Westbrook and FRP goes to a rebuilding team, and we get back expiring. There are so many ways to move Westbrook once you accept that he's a negative asset.

Again, this is a non answer. How many 1st round picks do you think we have? You realize you can’t trade 1st round picks in consecutive years, right? We owe Houston our 2023 1st. What 1st round pick are we getting back for Bertans? What team wants that low 1st in exchange for eating 100 million remaining on Westbrook’s deal? What contracts do we have to take on in return? What star player are we acquiring that will put us over the top after we trade away Avdija, Rui, Bonga, Brown Jr and Bryant? How do we fill out the roster?

It sounds like you are building a roster that will AT BEST consist of Beal, Cunningham, KAT, no supporting cast, and no future assets.

Not sure what you're trying to prove. I never said this way was perfect. I never said this way would guarantee a championship. Rather what I said was, this way was better than your way. And I stand by that. I see a full rebuild as a nice way of saying we are going to flip a coin. 10 percent chance we build a contender in 7 years. 50 percent chance we build a mediocre team in 7 years. 40 percent we build a perennial loser. At least with my approach we could move Beal and KAT at any time for assets. So if we decided to ultimately go that route we could. But, I'd be perfectly fine riding out Beal's career in DC, never winning a championship but watching good basketball. The most likely scenario of a rebuild is that we end up putting together a mediocre or bad team.

We have to look no further than our own team's history. From 89 to 95 we were putrid. In 96 and 97 we were mediocre. 98 to 04 putrid. 05 to 08 mediocre. 2008 to 2012 putrid. 2013 to 2018 mediocre. Now here we are. I've seen this story before. A rebuild is just another way of saying, lets be really bad, then mediocre again. Will my way work? I don't know. But if the Wizards pre-emptively trade Beal even though he makes it clear that he wants to stay, it would be a terrible decision.

[prime1time]

To be clear choosing to trade Beal and a rebuild isn't a strategy. When rebuilding you've basically decided to give up control of your destiny and let the NBA draft lottery and your ability to draft a top 5 player decide the future of your organization.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/dc-sports-bog/post/going-to-the-wizards-game-for-30-cents/2012/01/11/gIQAQVodrP_blog.html

“Three tickets, center court upper level (section 400), 4th row,” someone advertised on Craisglist. “Face value is $30 each. Will sell for $5 each, however if you were to forget to send payment via PayPal, I would not be heartbroken. I will email the tickets once I hear there is someone willing to attend the game. This is a once in a lifetime opportunity to watch Javale goaltend, Dray shoot 18 footers and The Nick Young baseline ballet, all against a team from Canada. Folks, it doesn't get much better than this.”

https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/wizards-season-ticket-holders-cling-to-optimism-as-team-loses-and-prices-fall/2012/01/24/gIQAYaPclQ_story.html

Optimism is the lifeblood of professional sports fandom in the District, where winning is the exception. That’s particularly true among fans of the Wizards — the team has lost nearly three-quarters of its games since it last made the playoffs, in 2008, yet fans are aggressively selling the promise of better days . . . eventually. The team with the second-fewest wins in the league over the past four seasons is amid a multi-year rebuilding process that majority owner Ted Leonsis insists can do for the Wizards what a major makeover did for his Capitals, who are anything but afterthoughts in the National Hockey League.

Another thing that's not being considered is that NBA teams have two purposes. Winning and making money. When teams start losing games, they also end up losing money. And the owner then does anything they can to reverse the trend. So they start grasping for quick fixes. If I had confidence that the Wizards would do a rebuild and genuinely try to put together a championship-caliber team, maybe I'd consider it. But I don't know how any fan could be that naive.

[Ruzious]

My view is there's more than 1 way to skin a cat (what a terribly worded saying, btw) - champions can be built in more than 1 way, but... you have to have someone really good engineering the strategy. And we don't have that at the moment and haven't for decades, tbh. Really, if we could have 1 possible semi-rumor come true, it would be for Ujiri to come to the Washington, and let him develop the strategy. He might be a bit smarter than some of us.