All-Star Break Magic RAPTOR rankings

[jonbob17]

At the break here are where Magic player's performance rank sorted by total RAPTOR (Nate Silver's rating system). This does not account for total production, just quantifies the minutes they have played. The WAR (wins above replacement) column is a measure of their total output over all the minutes played during the season.
For reference of the players that have played over 500 minutes, Anfernee Simons ranks last at -7.6, while Embiid and Jokic are 1-2 at 10.6 and 10.3 respectively.

[MartinsIzAfraud]

So we should continue another 3 years with this group right? Things are going well?

[jonbob17]

So we should continue another 3 years with this group right? Things are going well?

A lot of holes, and a lot of guys who shouldn't be on an NBA roster, let alone playing significant minutes. Chuma has played pretty damn well in the minutes he has gotten. Bamba does well in these types of metrics that use statistics like opponents FG% when closest to the ball (shot). Isaac is probably easily number one on this list if healthy.

Big question marks (Fultz). Only two good offensive players, one of which is really efficient and on his way out probably/maybe.

[PrimeThyme]

To think that there are still people out there who want to move forward with Fultz as our PG of the future. There isn't a single advanced metric or shooting percentage that would make the case for doing that.

[MartinsIzAfraud]

To think that there are still people out there who want to move forward with Fultz as our PG of the future. There isn't a single advanced metric or shooting percentage that would make the case for doing that.

I said he’s a bottom 5 Starting PG and got told I didn’t know basketball. Take off the homer glasses & 1 pick hype and look at his stats + advanced metrics. Dude is a small step above EP. Have to hope he works out at this point.

[zaymon]

To think that there are still people out there who want to move forward with Fultz as our PG of the future. There isn't a single advanced metric or shooting percentage that would make the case for doing that.

Its sad but i have to agree. He shouldnt be the reason we dont upgrade our point guard position.

[pepe1991]

I was called Fultz hater

Anyway, it's no secret that in modern basketball having PG with broken jumpshot will get you nowhere.

Depending what trades are in stores and where 2021 pick lands, it's no brainer to upgrade PG position.

There is nothing to be said about data itself, Vuc is our best player by wide marin, Okeke has nice overall impact but guy has to shoot more, there is no point of playing him if he will take 3 shots a night and pretend he is Draymoond Green/ Rodman on roster as gutted as Magic are.

When Cole Anthony played, he was very bad. But it's rookie promoted to starter so it's hard to slam on him too hard.

Overall we simply lack talent and health.

[basketballRob]

I was called Fultz hater

Anyway, it's no secret that in modern basketball having PG with broken jumpshot will get you nowhere.

Depending what trades are in stores and where 2021 pick lands, it's no brainer to upgrade PG position.

There is nothing to be said about data itself, Vuc is our best player by wide marin, Okeke has nice overall impact but guy has to shoot more, there is no point of playing him if he will take 3 shots a night and pretend he is Draymoond Green/ Rodman on roster as gutted as Magic are.

When Cole Anthony played, he was very bad. But it's rookie promoted to starter so it's hard to slam on him too hard.

Overall we simply lack talent and health.

What's his net rating?

Sent from my SM-G950U using RealGM mobile app

[SOUL]

I mean I've been arguing that Bamba hasn't been killing us out there despite him messing up a few times during a game. He's not the terrible player that people pretend he was during his first year.

[Blue_and_Whte]

I was called Fultz hater

Anyway, it's no secret that in modern basketball having PG with broken jumpshot will get you nowhere.

Depending what trades are in stores and where 2021 pick lands, it's no brainer to upgrade PG position.
There is nothing to be said about data itself, Vuc is our best player by wide marin, Okeke has nice overall impact but guy has to shoot more, there is no point of playing him if he will take 3 shots a night and pretend he is Draymoond Green/ Rodman on roster as gutted as Magic are.

When Cole Anthony played, he was very bad. But it's rookie promoted to starter so it's hard to slam on him too hard.

Overall we simply lack talent and health.

What's his net rating?

Sent from my SM-G950U using RealGM mobile app

This guy with his **** NET RATING.
It’s eleventeen... his net rating is eleventeen.

Let’s all not forget to look at the amount of minutes played and the types of minutes. (Meaningful vs Garbage time)just... let’s not forget perspective.

[Blue_and_Whte]

I mean I've been arguing that Bamba hasn't been killing us out there despite him messing up a few times during a game. He's not the terrible player that people pretend he was during his first year.

I don’t think anyone said he’s been killing us.

[thelead]

I mean I've been arguing that Bamba hasn't been killing us out there despite him messing up a few times during a game. He's not the terrible player that people pretend he was during his first year.

I don’t think anyone said he’s been killing us.

There are people that are dead set on the ‘fact’ that he’s trash. Those people are blind. It’s just like the other extreme with those that trash Vuc.

[Ducklett]

I mean I've been arguing that Bamba hasn't been killing us out there despite him messing up a few times during a game. He's not the terrible player that people pretend he was during his first year.

I don’t think anyone said he’s been killing us.

Go check like every game thread over 10 pages in the last 2 weeks. They are that long talking about how bad Bamba is. Please stop with this.

[MagicFan101]

I mean I've been arguing that Bamba hasn't been killing us out there despite him messing up a few times during a game. He's not the terrible player that people pretend he was during his first year.

I don’t think anyone said he’s been killing us.

There are people that are dead set on the ‘fact’ that he’s trash. Those people are blind. It’s just like the other extreme with those that trash Vuc.

He’s still slow down the court, seems out of place at times and mishandles passes more than I would like.

Still, when he gets square on his shot or just sees the play on defense and reacts at the rim, he has been pretty money.

You can see the raw effortless talent at times ... as well as the head-scratching moments. He needs playing time to bring on consistency so he can develop into a nice role player.

[Blue_and_Whte]

I mean I've been arguing that Bamba hasn't been killing us out there despite him messing up a few times during a game. He's not the terrible player that people pretend he was during his first year.

I don’t think anyone said he’s been killing us.

Go check like every game thread over 10 pages in the last 2 weeks. They are that long talking about how bad Bamba is. Please stop with this.

No. Because if he’s bad, and he has been in certain aspects, then he should be called out if he’s doing nothing else in contribution. Anyone that says he’s “killing the team” is incorrect. He’s never had a good feel for the game on either side, his up and down speed was way over hyped, doesn’t finish through contact because he lacks physicality, loose with the ball. Good jump shooter though, and having long arms automatically makes him a threat to block a shot although he lacks timing in a big way. A lot of that stuff could improve with more reps when the games are meaningful.

[jonbob17]

This guy with his **** NET RATING.
It’s eleventeen... his net rating is eleventeen.

Let’s all not forget to look at the amount of minutes played and the types of minutes. (Meaningful vs Garbage time)just... let’s not forget perspective.

Considering things like meaningful minutes maybe useful in comparing Vuc to Bamba, nobody's take away is going to be "Look Bamba is better than Vuc", based off this information, that is silly.

Where these rankings are helpful and other metrics like net rating, and on/off, is comparing Vuc to other centers, and by these methodologies he doesn't fare well. As mentioned above the two leaders Embiid and Jokic are the leaders in the RAPTOR metric. A lot of Magic fans are starting to think Vuc is in this rare air. According to this ranking system he isn't close. He's the 13th ranked center in terms of WAR which is adjusted for minutes, which he has a lot of minutes. He is the 22nd center based on RAPTOR.

The fact is that the Magic first unit gets whacked. Vuc plays more minutes than anyone on this team, and when Vuc plays the team gets outscored, by a lot. The Magic are a bad team, the team net rating is negative.

[Xatticus]

This guy with his **** NET RATING.
It’s eleventeen... his net rating is eleventeen.

Let’s all not forget to look at the amount of minutes played and the types of minutes. (Meaningful vs Garbage time)just... let’s not forget perspective.

Considering things like meaningful minutes maybe useful in comparing Vuc to Bamba, nobody's take away is going to be "Look Bamba is better than Vuc", based off this information, that is silly.

Where these rankings are helpful and other metrics like net rating, and on/off, is comparing Vuc to other centers, and by these methodologies he doesn't fare well. As mentioned above the two leaders Embiid and Jokic are the leaders in the RAPTOR metric. A lot of Magic fans are starting to think Vuc is in this rare air. According to this ranking system he isn't close. He's the 13th ranked center in terms of WAR which is adjusted for minutes, which he has a lot of minutes. He is the 22nd center based on RAPTOR.

The fact is that the Magic first unit gets whacked. Vuc plays more minutes than anyone on this team, and when Vuc plays the team gets outscored, by a lot. The Magic are a bad team, the team net rating is negative.

I don't really agree with all of this, but that's the gist of it. Many of those "metrics" have a heavy box score component, so they flatter box score warriors regardless, but the component that is based on on/off data is what is meaningful to me. Metrics that completely ignore the box score stuff have him as one of the worst players in the NBA this year, which is also an unfair reflection of what he is. He is a guy that has been thrust into a role far beyond what makes him useful to a team aspiring to win games.

The short version is that this board collectively overvalues what he is offensively and underappreciates how poor he is defensively. I think there is some value to what he does offensively, but he just isn't equipped for the role he has been given, which is why we are so consistently poor at that end on a yearly basis. It's not that he lacks useful skills or that he is a bad offensive player. He is just a bad offensive player compared to other players that are given his offensive role. And of course there is just no getting around the problems he causes at the defensive end. This is getting exposed right now because we don't have anyone to cover for his deficiencies. His ideal role on a team that doesn't suck is very situational. His ideal role on a tanking team is full on tank commander.

Of course, the counterargument to all of this statistical jibber-jabber is:

Spoiler:

[fklt]

Of course, the counterargument to all of this statistical jibber-jabber is:

Spoiler:

man, you're this close to shouting at scarecrows at this point. who in the board ever told you that you're too mean? last I checked, you were the one complaining about the hate that you receive.

you've been getting push back because you've been consistently wrong on almost every last thing you said about one player in specific in the last 5 years. oh, now it's because these ignorant people care about box-score numbers too much, while we all should have been considering on-and-off numbers to properly gauge a player on a losing team all this time. is it now?

have you ever checked what's vuc RPM numbers were like the last 3 years? authoritative metric based on on-and-off numbers -which you now claim to love- that normalizes against who's on the court at the same time. measured with possessions, he was a top-5 center this year, a top-5 center the previous year, a top-5 center the year before. he had a positive DRPM in all three years, meaning based on on-and-off numbers, he had a positive impact on defense compared to his teammates. go ahead and ignore all this, as you've been doing with any factual data that comes your way that you don't like. then you can continue crying foul on rhetoric and how people are just not letting you be mean.



RPM: Player's estimated on-court impact on team performance, measured in net point differential per 100 offensive and defensive possessions. RPM takes into account teammates, opponents and additional factors

[Blue_and_Whte]

This guy with his **** NET RATING.
It’s eleventeen... his net rating is eleventeen.

Let’s all not forget to look at the amount of minutes played and the types of minutes. (Meaningful vs Garbage time)just... let’s not forget perspective.

Considering things like meaningful minutes maybe useful in comparing Vuc to Bamba, nobody's take away is going to be "Look Bamba is better than Vuc", based off this information, that is silly.

Where these rankings are helpful and other metrics like net rating, and on/off, is comparing Vuc to other centers, and by these methodologies he doesn't fare well. As mentioned above the two leaders Embiid and Jokic are the leaders in the RAPTOR metric. A lot of Magic fans are starting to think Vuc is in this rare air. According to this ranking system he isn't close. He's the 13th ranked center in terms of WAR which is adjusted for minutes, which he has a lot of minutes. He is the 22nd center based on RAPTOR.

The fact is that the Magic first unit gets whacked. Vuc plays more minutes than anyone on this team, and when Vuc plays the team gets outscored, by a lot. The Magic are a bad team, the team net rating is negative.

And yet some how were worse when he’s on the bench. Vooch isn’t an elite player but I’d love to revisit these numbers when he has the talent around him that those other two guys have.

[Xatticus]

This guy with his **** NET RATING.
It’s eleventeen... his net rating is eleventeen.

Let’s all not forget to look at the amount of minutes played and the types of minutes. (Meaningful vs Garbage time)just... let’s not forget perspective.

Considering things like meaningful minutes maybe useful in comparing Vuc to Bamba, nobody's take away is going to be "Look Bamba is better than Vuc", based off this information, that is silly.

Where these rankings are helpful and other metrics like net rating, and on/off, is comparing Vuc to other centers, and by these methodologies he doesn't fare well. As mentioned above the two leaders Embiid and Jokic are the leaders in the RAPTOR metric. A lot of Magic fans are starting to think Vuc is in this rare air. According to this ranking system he isn't close. He's the 13th ranked center in terms of WAR which is adjusted for minutes, which he has a lot of minutes. He is the 22nd center based on RAPTOR.

The fact is that the Magic first unit gets whacked. Vuc plays more minutes than anyone on this team, and when Vuc plays the team gets outscored, by a lot. The Magic are a bad team, the team net rating is negative.

And yet some how were worse when he’s on the bench. Vooch isn’t an elite player but I’d love to revisit these numbers when he has the talent around him that those other two guys have.

No. We aren't. That's the issue. We've been just fine without him. We've been terrible with him. That doesn't mean it is all on him, but building around him doesn't work.

https://www.nba.com/stats/vs/advanced/#!?TeamID=1610612753&VsPlayerID=202696

He's certainly had a couple seasons where his on/off differentials were better than this season, but it has always been contingent on him sharing the floor with really good defenders (mostly Isaac). You are basically picking your poison. If you put offensive weapons around him, you can have an average offense, but the defense falls apart and the team is awful. If you surround him with really good defenders, your offense is bad, but you can still outscore other teams if your defense is good enough. This is much easier said than done though, because you still need rim protection to have a good defense, which almost always comes from the center position. This is what makes Isaac so valuable. There aren't many guys that can chase wings, stay in front of guards, and still protect the rim. He is probably the best at rim protection among those that can. This makes him the perfect complement for Vucevic, but Vucevic isn't the perfect complement for Isaac.

The problem is fairly obvious if you dig into the statistics, but people have agendas, so we blame someone like MCW because he can't shoot, even though he has probably been our best player since he joined the roster due to his exceptional defense. He isn't good for your halfcourt offense, but he creates easy baskets by forcing turnovers above the elbow. Those almost always become fast break buckets. It's rather astounding that MCW has a +3.4 net rating in 450 minutes on this team in this season. He has had a positive net rating in each season with us, while the team's net rating has been negative in each season while he isn't on the floor. His on/off differential this year is +14.0, which is astounding. Vucevic's is -7.8, for comparison's sake.

Vucevic with MCW: +1.2
Vucevic w/o MCW: -12.5

MCW with Vucevic: +1.2
MCW w/o Vucevic: +9.0

This is the story of Vucevic's career. He doesn't move the needle. He doesn't make us go. When we've been decent, it's been because we've had a defense.