2021-2022 roster

ChuckDurn · Post #1 » by **ChuckDurn** » Wed Mar 10, 2021 10:03 pm

Looking at the Warriors' current roster or assets, what do you think is the likelihood that each player will actually be with the Warriors next year (either fully on the roster, or as a 2-way prospect)?

Here's my take, in descending order of likelihood of being with us; note that I am not including the Minnesota draft pick, which may or may not convey to us this summer. I realize this is a little short-sighted, as it could have a huge effect on some of the other players that we would choose to keep or let go:

Curry: 100%
Klay: 99.99%
Draymond: 98%
Wiseman: 95%
Wiggins: 93%
Mannion: 90%
Poole: 80%
Jessup: 70% (at least on a 2-way deal, if not full roster spot)
Chriss: 60% (likely won't get good offers elsewhere, so he might come back)
Paschall: 50% (decent trade bait due to small contract)
Toscano-Anderson: 45% (like his game, but might be casualty of the numbers)
Looney: 40% (contract is good for salary matching to facilitate trades)
Bazemore: 35% (might be victim of numbers game, if he's back it would only be on a minimum deal again)
Oubre: 25% (I'm skeptical we'd pay the massive tax bill his contract would create)
Lee: 20% (doesn't do enough to keep around; too old to be a development project)
Smailagic: 15% (only reasons he would be back are bad ones - the front office not wanting to admit the mistake)
Mulder: 3% (one-trick pony whose trick is done better by Jessup and others)
Wanamaker: 0% (I expect him to be gone before the end of '20-'21 season)

wco81 · Post #2 » by **wco81** » Mon Mar 15, 2021 1:05 am

Ultimately they need all the young players to improve. They have to become at least 35% 3-point shooters and around 40% on corner catch and shoot 3s if they're to get key minutes as part of the playoffs team. The team needs them to improve if the Warriors are to contend for a top 4 seed next season.

Yeah I think we've seen the ceiling from Lee and Mulder unless they are able to improve their 3-point shooting to 45% or greater. They don't contribute playmaking, finishing or defense so they have to be making high percentage of their 3s. Lee has no money guaranteed next year but his number is $1.9 million and if he stays on the roster beyond 6/15/21, he will get $500k guaranteed, according to HoopsHype.

Lee isn't some elite shooter. HIs percentage is down to 37.4 for the season after being over 40% for awhile. But his contract is relatively cheap so he will probably get a roster spot, unless the Warriors acquire better wings who can defend and shoot, or maybe has better upside, which could come from the draft, especially if the Warriors keep their own FRP, whether or not the Minnesota pick conveys this year.

Paschall, people want to trade, figuring he's pretty much hit his ceiling. But he's still young and his contract is relatively cheap. I would not trade him for some low 2nd round pick (higher than 45). Besides improving his 3 point shot, he may be able to improve the elbow jumpers that he can get against most centers who are matched up against him. Maybe he could become a more proficient scorer yet, like Millsap developed into later in his career.

I wouldn't trust Wiggins or Oubre to make shots in playoffs games. Ultimately they have to be traded, especially Oubre with an expiring contract. Either of them could be part of bigger trade which would include other assets, including the draft picks. But they have to make a decision on Oubre by the trade deadline in a couple of weeks.

wco81 · Post #3 » by **wco81** » Mon Mar 15, 2021 10:06 pm

Read an article on Klay, talking about what a difficult year he had. Besides the injuries apparently lost his grandmother.

Says wants to get back to all NBA level but would probably start playing 20 MPG.

Dom801e · Post #4 » by **Dom801e** » Tue Mar 16, 2021 12:16 am

I think most of the roster remains the same but adds Jessup and a 1st round pick. I predict Oubre, Smiley, and Wanamaker are gone. Mulder and Jessup on 2-ways. If Jessup shows he is good enough for full roster spot, then Lee is probably the odd man out unless Bazemore gets a good offer elsewhere, in which case Lee still remains.

Onus · Post #5 » by **Onus** » Tue Mar 16, 2021 1:47 am

Curry, Klay, Wiggins, Draymond, Wiseman
Nico, Poole, Oubre, JTA/Paschall, Looney
Minny Pick, Our pick, Chriss, Smiley, JJ

That's 16.

Man it is really bad that they haven't been able to bring in anyone on the mle long term

and1GS · Post #6 » by **and1GS** » Tue Mar 16, 2021 2:10 am

I think about this a lot, thanks for making this thread.

I look through the lens of a deep playoff run. So my bar is 'would you be on the court during important minutes in a WCF game?' Given that...

Locks: Curry/Klay/Draymond (IMO we will ride him into the ground rather than trading while he has value)
Helpful, but contract may lead us to a trade: Oubre/Wiggins
The Future...and Present: Wiseman
Some Potential for Rotation Spot: Minny pick, Paschall, Chriss, Poole

Then you have JTA and Looney who can situationally be in the rotation and Mannion who is a dart throw.

Honestly, that's pretty bad. If you really break it down we have Curry, a declining Draymond, Klay coming off a torn achilles, a few 'nice' starter level players in Oubre/Wiggins/Wiseman then a grab bag of rotational players we can realistically only expect 2 or 3 'hits' from.

If the question is who do I think will not be traded, it is literally only that first group. I have to imagine Kerr/Myers don't look at this team and say 'You son of a bitch, I'M IN!'

Coxy · Post #7 » by **Coxy** » Tue Mar 16, 2021 2:44 am

Odds are too high for Wanamaker.

Coxy · Post #8 » by **Coxy** » Tue Mar 16, 2021 2:47 am

Seriously though, I see no reason that Paschall won’t be moved on somehow. He’s less than 5% here next season.

wco81 · Post #9 » by **wco81** » Tue Mar 16, 2021 9:02 pm

I think a game like last night vs. Lakers is a reason why the Warriors need that FRP, even if worst case it's #20.

Problem is that they are hoping low picks like Poole, Mannion or Paschall will become reliable scorers.

The Lakers without AD and with Lebron out of the game were gaining on the second unit and the first unit.

Now maybe they won't pick a good player with that FRP but they need as many chances on goal to have a chance to hit. They've certainly missed with the picks drafting in the late '20s or later.

Poole was drafted #28 in 2019, just ahead of Keldon Johnson and Claxton, who are better rotation players.

Or look at Kuzma drafted #27 in 2017. He's not an all star but he's capable of putting up 20 points frequently.

So maybe their luck won't be much better but the player they pick is going to have a higher ceiling than any of the Warriors' second unit players. Maybe even turn out better than Oubre or Wiggins.

I'm glad Kerr is going to play Poole and Mannion consistently. Chances are, they don't have much ceiling above them. I think if they were capable of scoring 20 on a given night, they'd have shown that already.

But at this point, are there still Warriors fans who believe playoff experience is always good? Because getting blasted by 30 by a top 4 seed isn't going to make Warriors a better team for next season and beyond.

Forget about the odds of these second unit players sticking on the roster next year. You want to replace as many of them as possible. So ideally, you get two lottery picks this year, either package them up for an all-NBA player or draft both and replace two of the dead wood on their bench.

Badly Browned · Post #10 » by **Badly Browned** » Thu Mar 18, 2021 4:25 pm

If I'm the Warriors I am shopping around Wanamaker and Paschall right now before the deadline.

Probably also seeing what Oubre can fetch them, though Oubre's Bird Rights means re-signing Oubre is the only way to get a player of Oubre's caliber in FA.

Going into next year I'm moving Smailagic to a two-way.

Otherwise, everything else depends on how the draft shakes out. If things fall the Warriors way and we land like the #4 and the #17 picks in the draft, the back end of the roster could see a huge shakeup.

killmongrel · Post #11 » by **killmongrel** » Thu Mar 18, 2021 5:08 pm

Steph - Do we even have to wonder?
Klay - Will be on the team regardless.
Draymond - If traded it's for a package for Giannis
Wiggins - If traded it's for a package for somebody like Paul George
Oubre - Either trade in the next few days or most likely walks in the off season if Warriors get a 4/5th pick in the draft
Wiseman - Stays on the team unless he's traded in a super star package
Looney - Small chance he gets traded this season, but will likely get traded in a package
Paschall - Gets traded as part of a package
Lee - Fights for a spot in training camp
Mulder - Fights for a spot in training camp
Chriss - Comes back for the vet. minimum or GS lets him walk if he asks for more or they need roster spots
Wanamaker - Traded or dumped this season.
Bazemore - Walks this summer and also because GS has no roster spots for him.
Mannion - Fights for a spot in training camp
Poole - Stays on the team unless used in a package for a significant player.
Smailagic - Waived this summer.
JTA - Fights for a spot in training camp.
Jessup - Fights for a spot in training camp.

wco81 · Post #12 » by **wco81** » Thu Mar 25, 2021 5:04 pm

So KD missing so many games should be a warning to the Warriors. He came back after 18 months, looked great for about 25 games and hasn't played since.

Good chance Klay is on restricted minutes and could miss games, have other complications from his injuries.

Well just under 2 hours left and it looks like Warriors will be left holding their collective dicks.

watch1958 · Post #13 » by **watch1958** » Thu Mar 25, 2021 5:19 pm

Lee, Bazemore, Wannamker, Mulder, JTA: I’d expect only 2/5 to be here next year. I’d guess Lee & JTA.

Bad karma if they don’t keep JTA. After reading his story, he should retire a Warrior and work for the team afterwards.

TB · Post #14 » by TB » Thu Mar 25, 2021 11:33 pm

Call me crazy, but I don't hate our roster for next year even if we make virtually no moves.

Just going on current standings and the odds of where they land:
5th - Kuminga the heavy favorite to be the 5th pick
13th - lots of options, but i'm gonna throw in Davion Mitchell because I love his game

Steph / Nico / Mitchell
Klay / Poole / Jessup
Wiggins / Kuminga / Lee
Dray / Oubre / JTA
Wiseman / Looney / Paschall

Would have the MLE and some chances at upgrading the backup big spot or backup PG spot if possible... but the hope is Nico, Poole, Oubre, Wiseman show enough the rest of the year where we feel good with them in these rotation spots.

and1GS · Post #15 » by **and1GS** » Thu Mar 25, 2021 11:40 pm

TB wrote:Call me crazy, but I don't hate our roster for next year even if we make virtually no moves.

Just going on current standings and the odds of where they land:
5th - Kuminga the heavy favorite to be the 5th pick
13th - lots of options, but i'm gonna throw in Davion Mitchell because I love his game

Steph / Nico / Mitchell
Klay / Poole / Jessup
Wiggins / Kuminga / Lee
Dray / Oubre / JTA
Wiseman / Looney / Paschall

Would have the MLE and some chances at upgrading the backup big spot or backup PG spot if possible... but the hope is Nico, Poole, Oubre, Wiseman show enough the rest of the year where we feel good with them in these rotation spots.

Scenario...

30 seconds left in a tie game.

Defense is running a box and 1.

Steph kicks it out to Kelly Oubre, who runs into 4 defenders while trying to dunk from the free throw line.

We get back into our defensive set.

Ball goes to Oubre's man for a clear out iso while Wiseman's man sets a pick.

What do you think happens next? Do you hate the roster now?

TB · Post #16 » by TB » Thu Mar 25, 2021 11:45 pm

and1GS wrote:
TB wrote:Call me crazy, but I don't hate our roster for next year even if we make virtually no moves.

Just going on current standings and the odds of where they land:
5th - Kuminga the heavy favorite to be the 5th pick
13th - lots of options, but i'm gonna throw in Davion Mitchell because I love his game

Steph / Nico / Mitchell
Klay / Poole / Jessup
Wiggins / Kuminga / Lee
Dray / Oubre / JTA
Wiseman / Looney / Paschall

Would have the MLE and some chances at upgrading the backup big spot or backup PG spot if possible... but the hope is Nico, Poole, Oubre, Wiseman show enough the rest of the year where we feel good with them in these rotation spots.

Scenario...

30 seconds left in a tie game.

Defense is running a box and 1.

Steph kicks it out to Kelly Oubre, who runs into 4 defenders while trying to dunk from the free throw line.

We get back into our defensive set.

Ball goes to Oubre's man for a clear out iso while Wiseman's man sets a pick.

What do you think happens next? Do you hate the roster now?

30 seconds left in the game our backup forward won't be in.

I like my odds of scoring with Steph, Poole, Klay, Wiggins, Dray on the floor for the last offensive possession, then defending for 5-10 seconds or putting in a defensive lineup (which i have no problem Oubre being in).

I will add, since Oubre being ON the roster is your concern, I have those concerns too. This is assuming his value is likely not going up around the league and we get him for 3/45 or so. Keep the salary spot, get him in a better role, and maybe even see him have some success with more time in the system.

and1GS · Post #17 » by **and1GS** » Thu Mar 25, 2021 11:59 pm

Oubre as a defensive lineup option gives me a headache. I don't know why you guys think he's a good defender. Disruptive, sure. But he is poor at switching and overall team defense.

Upperclass · Post #18 » by **Upperclass** » Fri Mar 26, 2021 4:07 am

The only keepers are the same 3 who won a chip and Dray should be traded as well while he still has value. Rebuild the team entirely in one off-season. Simmons will be available this summer when the 6ers think they are a piece away.. flip Dray/pick for Ben to start and go from there. Send Wiggins to Houston for Wood, Oubre, Wiseman to the bulls for Lauri. Build a team to that fits Klay and Steph.. chip is wide open next year

and1GS · Post #19 » by **and1GS** » Fri Mar 26, 2021 3:56 pm

Upperclass wrote:The only keepers are the same 3 who won a chip and Dray should be traded as well while he still has value. Rebuild the team entirely in one off-season. Simmons will be available this summer when the 6ers think they are a piece away.. flip Dray/pick for Ben to start and go from there. Send Wiggins to Houston for Wood, Oubre, Wiseman to the bulls for Lauri. Build a team to that fits Klay and Steph.. chip is wide open next year

Ben...Simmons!?

You really think the sixers will want Draymond and a pick for an all NBA player?

TB · Post #20 » by TB » Fri Mar 26, 2021 5:24 pm

and1GS wrote:Oubre as a defensive lineup option gives me a headache. I don't know why you guys think he's a good defender. Disruptive, sure. But he is poor at switching and overall team defense.

I think Oubre has great defensive moments. But agree that he makes alot of awareness mistakes.

I personally wanted to trade him yesterday, but now that he's on the roster, i'm hoping the rest of the season just continues to be a learning experience for him. At that point, I think the warriors should try to retain him to keep the salary slot. Plus, I think he can be a plus as a 6th man type getting 25 minutes or so a game.

The problem with not trading him is that if he gets offers of 20m, thats a massive overpay for what he provides. And at that point we should not sign him, and essentially wasted the opportunity to get an asset for him. But I think his value is pretty low around the league, and we could probably sign him for about what he makes now.