Official Trade Thread -- Part XL

[payitforward]

I think we have just under $1M room under the luxtax. Signing Drummond to a vet minimum deal would cost a prorated $1.6M. For half the season, that's just $0.8M.

But, is that how it works? I.e. it's a matter of how much cash went out?

I thought it was the annual salary level of the players on the roster (including salaries like Len's would be, i.e. that you couldn't subtract from the calculation). No doubt I'm wrong about that.

No. The annual salary at the end of the year is how you calculate your salary cap number. But your luxtax number is the actual amount of money you paid to your roster.

Aaah! Thanks, nate -- it's great that you know these things!!

[gambitx777]

I look for ish, mo, brown and robinson to be gone by the dead line.

I think we have a chance to trade lopez I think that story about him not being available is a tactic.

I would like to see Bertans flipped but I doubt that happens.

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[WallToWall]

I look for ish, mo, brown and robinson to be gone by the dead line.
I think we have a chance to trade lopez I think that story about him not being available is a tactic.
I would like to see Bertans flipped but I doubt that happens.

In addition to Ish, TBJr, and Robinson, I expect Bonga, and Wagner to be gone. This will be an active trading deadline.

[nate33]

I don't think it will be an active trade deadline at all. Troy Brown is probably the only guy that they will try hard to move. Someone like Ish might be thrown in to make salaries match.

The one thing that concerns me is that they should be focusing on asset accumulation and cap flexibility this offseason so they can try and recruit a good GM and/or coach. But the problem is, the existing GM and coach presumably do not want to be replaced, so they are motivated to do the opposite: to reduce the attractiveness of their jobs this summer. This is where a good owner would provide the necessary direction, but obviously, we don't have one.

[payitforward]

Well stated!

OTOH, it is also true that a good GM would explain the reality to his owner. That this is a long-term rebuild & there is simply no way around it. Of course, "good" also means confident of his position -- which I don't see how Tommy could be.

[pcbothwel]

Sorry, but I just disagree. Sure, a full rebuild might be necessary... but you could look at any number of teams and see quick turnarounds.
Beal, Rui, Mathews, Deni, a top 7 pick, and the Russ we've seen in the last 30 days is a competitive foundation with a good coach.

Look at the Suns, Blazers, and Spurs. How are they better than us?
Beal + Russ are better than CP3 + Booker... Its because Mikal Bridges, Cam Johnson, Cam Payne, and Saric are playing great. Journeyman and non top 10 picks...
Blazers? Are you kidding me? Other than Dame, its Kanter, Trent, a horrendous Covington, and Melo leading that team.
Spurs? Other than Derozan, Its just solid team work of guys that are as efficient as Russ.

Im not buying the gap between those teams and us is anything more than a good coach and some roster changes. Is that a championship team? Probably not, but its a team that can be a 4th/5th seed in the east.

For god sakes, The heat were looking like a bottom 5 team and in a matter of weeks are the 4th seed. They have Butler, Bam, and trash. Herro, Nunn, Robinson, Iggy, Dragic... have you looked at what they're producing. Awful.

Im not giving up on a Beal led squad over the next 3 years.
- Move Bertans for expiring's and a top 35 pick
- Secure top 7 pick
- Hire a new coach

***(Masai hiring is wild card)

[NatP4]

All depends on what we do with that top 7 pick to me. Moses Moody won’t change anything.

But you can win ALOT of games with:

Top 7: Franz Wagner
Top 35: Neemius Queta
Coach: Jay Wright

Westbrook Winston
Beal Mathews
Avdija Bonga
Wagner Hachimura
Queta Bryant

[payitforward]

@ pcbothwei -- might as well admit it! You're never "giving up" on any Wizards squad! You've been saying "one more year" year after year as we slid downhill!

Just to take Phoenix as an example -- Booker is way over-rated, so make him equal to Russ who is obviously not the guy he was. But, sorry Chris Paul is a much better player than Brad Beal. Mikal Bridges is no journeyman. Cameron Payne was a lottery pick, & Cameron Johnson went #11 ("non top ten picks" ). Saric is not playing well. But Ayton, a #1 pick, is playing very well indeed this year.

So, yes, Phoenix is a much better team than the Wizards. As to SA, Vassell, Poeltl, Murray, Johnson, & Lyles are every one of them playing at well above average productivity levels.

As to Miami, you've got that wrong too. You leave out Precious who is playing really well, Iggy is playing at a high level. Butler is a way better player than Bradley Beal. Bam is better than anyone else we have but Beal -- in fact, overall, I'm not sure why you wouldn't say he is every bit as good as Brad.

But... what's the point you want to make, really? Teams are more or less as good as their records. That's what "good" means. We are 14-25.

Only 5 teams in the league have worse per-game differential than the Wizards, & 4 of them are explicitly rebuilding essentially from scratch. Only 4 teams have worse records than we do.

You know who to class this team with? The Cleveland Cavaliers, Detroit Pistons, Orlando Magic, Houston Rockets & Minnesota Timberwolves.

As to your moves, I like them all. Let me know when we've traded Bertans for a top 35 pick, will you?

Hiring Masai will make it possible to begin the multi-year process of changing this franchise. But, let's not make hiring Masai into the new version of Kevin Bryant's gonna be a Wizard, ok?

[DCZards]

Just to take Phoenix as an example -- Booker is way over-rated, so make him equal to Russ who is obviously not the guy he was. But, sorry Chris Paul is a much better player than Brad Beal. Mikal Bridges is no journeyman. Cameron Payne was a lottery pick, & Cameron Johnson went #11 ("non top ten picks" ). Saric is not playing well. But Ayton, a #1 pick, is playing very well indeed this year.

As to Miami, you've got that wrong too. You leave out Precious who is playing really well, Iggy is playing at a high level. Butler is a way better player than Bradley Beal. Bam is better than anyone else we have but Beal -- in fact, overall, I'm not sure why you wouldn't say he is every bit as good as Brad.

Yes, you can argue that Chris Paul and Jimmy Butler are better players than Beal. But "much better" and "way better?" No way!

On top of that, since we're talking about team building, I'd rather build my team around BB at 27 than Paul at 35 or Butler at 31.

[pcbothwel]

Cam Payne is on his 4th team in 5 years and only 1 was a trade. He was let go by the Bulls, Cavs, and Toronto. He was a bust.
Cam Johnson is a poor mans Bertans that sits on the corner as a catch and shoot 4. He doesnt create/pass, rebound, and is a below average defender.
These are ancillary players you find every year outside the lotto and in FA for the MLE.
Mikal Bridges has been fantastic, but he's also given a very specific role like the players above. His usage is lower than Robin Lopez for god sakes.

Again, you are making my point for me. You keep listing players that are role players, not guys you need to rebuild/tank for. Patty Mills, Trey Lyles, and almost 35 y/o Rudy Gay... C'Mon on.

Precious is playing "Really Well"? Iggy is playing at a "High Level"? What are the metrics for such levels. They seem to play strong defense in spurts, but Precious has more turnovers than assist and shoots 50% from from the FT line. His mediocre TS of 57% is misleading as all 4 of his FGA per game are within 5 feet of the basket.
Both players are certainly good bench guys to have around, but they are NOT playing at a high level or really well.

Its condescending when you make comments like:
"Teams are more or less as good as their records. That's what "good" means. We are 14-25"

Yeah...we get it. So was Miami a great team last year? A bad team this year? But wait, now their good again? Explain.
How about Boston? They were in the ECF last year and had a 67% win rate. Now they are a .500 team 1 game from the 8th seed. How?
Their young stars Tatum and Brown have gotten better. Ojeleye, Smart, Pritchard, Theis, and Robert Williams have all been good. You seem to like Tristan Thompson and his glorious rebounding ability... So explain how that happens? Are they a mediocre team now with mediocre players and mediocre coach.

Knicks? They were an abysmal team that let solid rotational players in Portis and Morris walk. There is no reason for them to be better than the terrible team they were last year, but now they are .500. Why? Thibs? Maybe

You have such certitude about this being "A long term rebuild and there is no way around it". But history shows there are ways around it. Teams get better or worse every year and there isnt as easy an explanation as you make it out to be.

[NatP4]

Wish we could make a play for Lonzo. He’s becoming an outstanding player.

[gambitx777]

Dude I would love to put lonzo and beal together !

Wish we could make a play for Lonzo. He’s becoming an outstanding player.

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[pcbothwel]

Wish we could make a play for Lonzo. He’s becoming an outstanding player.

Yeah, he hasnt been as good defensively as i thought (can improve as he gets stronger) and his inability to get to the basket /draw fouls is going to limit his ceiling.. but he's really worked hard to make the shot work and makes good decisions.

[payitforward]

Just to take Phoenix as an example -- Booker is way over-rated, so make him equal to Russ who is obviously not the guy he was. But, sorry Chris Paul is a much better player than Brad Beal. Mikal Bridges is no journeyman. Cameron Payne was a lottery pick, & Cameron Johnson went #11 ("non top ten picks" ). Saric is not playing well. But Ayton, a #1 pick, is playing very well indeed this year.

As to Miami, you've got that wrong too. You leave out Precious who is playing really well, Iggy is playing at a high level. Butler is a way better player than Bradley Beal. Bam is better than anyone else we have but Beal -- in fact, overall, I'm not sure why you wouldn't say he is every bit as good as Brad.

Yes, you can argue that Chris Paul and Jimmy Butler are better players than Beal. But "much better" and "way better?" No way!

On top of that, since we're talking about team building, I'd rather build my team around BB at 27 than Paul at 35 or Butler at 31.

As to your last point -- sure!

Chris Paul is thought by many people, including me, to be the greatest point guard in the history of the game. It's no slam of any kind on Bradley Beal to say that CP is "much better" than he is. Brad is an absolutely wonderful player. Chris Paul is a god.

Jimmy Butler has been one of the top players in the league for a decade, & to my & probably most people's surprise, he is having the best year of his career. I can't believe what he is doing. He rebounds like a PF, gets assists like a top PG, turns it over very little, plays defense w/o fouling, gets to the line 10 times per 40 minutes, shoots 86% when there, gets twice as many steals as an average SF... etc. He is unbelievable. Yes, he is way better than Brad, & no that is not an insult to Bradley Beal, it's a recognition of what Jimmy is doing -- it's hard to be way better than Brad Beal!

[payitforward]

Cam Payne is on his 4th team in 5 years and only 1 was a trade. He was let go by the Bulls, Cavs, and Toronto. He was a bust.
Cam Johnson is a poor mans Bertans that sits on the corner as a catch and shoot 4. He doesnt create/pass, rebound, and is a below average defender.
These are ancillary players you find every year outside the lotto and in FA for the MLE.
Mikal Bridges has been fantastic, but he's also given a very specific role like the players above. His usage is lower than Robin Lopez for god sakes.

Again, you are making my point for me. You keep listing players that are role players, not guys you need to rebuild/tank for. Patty Mills, Trey Lyles, and almost 35 y/o Rudy Gay... C'Mon on.

Precious is playing "Really Well"? Iggy is playing at a "High Level"? What are the metrics for such levels. They seem to play strong defense in spurts, but Precious has more turnovers than assist and shoots 50% from from the FT line. His mediocre TS of 57% is misleading as all 4 of his FGA per game are within 5 feet of the basket.
Both players are certainly good bench guys to have around, but they are NOT playing at a high level or really well.

Its condescending when you make comments like:
"Teams are more or less as good as their records. That's what "good" means. We are 14-25"

Yeah...we get it. So was Miami a great team last year? A bad team this year? But wait, now their good again? Explain.
How about Boston? They were in the ECF last year and had a 67% win rate. Now they are a .500 team 1 game from the 8th seed. How?
Their young stars Tatum and Brown have gotten better. Ojeleye, Smart, Pritchard, Theis, and Robert Williams have all been good. You seem to like Tristan Thompson and his glorious rebounding ability... So explain how that happens? Are they a mediocre team now with mediocre players and mediocre coach.

Knicks? They were an abysmal team that let solid rotational players in Portis and Morris walk. There is no reason for them to be better than the terrible team they were last year, but now they are .500. Why? Thibs? Maybe

You have such certitude about this being "A long term rebuild and there is no way around it". But history shows there are ways around it. Teams get better or worse every year and there isnt as easy an explanation as you make it out to be.

It's silly to argue this -- silly for you & silly for me. I could as easily say that you make my points for me.

I know Cameron Payne's history. This year, he's playing very well. & you are right that teams get better or worse every year. Nor do I "like" Tristan Thompson (not that I have any particular reason to *dislike* him).

As to there being no way around a total rebuild... of our 15 player roster, how many were on the team 2 years ago today? Exactly 3 of them: Bradley Beal, Thomas Bryant & Troy Brown. At that point Bryant & Brown had been with us about 6 months.

We are engaged in a total rebuild. Now... "total" doesn't mean every single player has to go! Or, if that is the definition you prefer to use, then you are right -- it doesn't have to be a total rebuild. Just almost total!

OTOH, if your definition of "total rebuild" means Brad would have to go, then sure why not -- this is not a total rebuild. I have no desire to trade Bradley Beal.

Does that help?

Only here's the thing: the FO doesn't seem to like Wagner; they didn't pick up his option. Gill is irrelevant. Len is a guy we picked up off the street. Lopez & Neto are on 1-year contracts. Ish is expiring. Apparently, they are dying to dump Brown. You yourself want to trade Bertans for a high R2 pick. They don't play Bonga, & I assume he's not much in their plans. Robinson certainly isn't.

That leaves Beal, Westbrook, Avdija, Rui, Bryant & Mathews. & we'll have a high R1 pick in a few months.

Is that the team that doesn't need any more building, at least nothing serious? Doesn't matter that Russ is 32? Avdija & Rui aren't question marks? Bryant has a serious injury, but there's nothing to worry about there? Garrison Mathews is an undrafted guy, but he's proved himself for sure, we're all set? We don't know who the rookie will be, but we don't have to trouble ourselves, because there's no chance of him being any kind of question mark?

If that's what you think, & if you are right, then for sure we don't need to do any rebuilding: after all, we'll have 7 players.

[pcbothwel]

PIF... You dont really make sense.
1) You say we are in a long-term rebuild and there is NO WAY AROUND it. So what is long term?
2) You then state that you have NO DESIRE to trade beal. How does that work with point 1?
3) You list numbers of players being shuffled out this next year and state I only want to keep 6(Actually 7 as I want Winston)... But then you fail to acknowledge that the 6 players you listed are 5 starters and the 6th man. Turnover in players 7-15 is NOT a rebuild, but common roster turnover in the modern NBA.

I'll make my point clear. A good coach with our roster next year (This version of Russ & Beal, plus another offseason for Rui & Deni, and healthy Bryant) can be a playoff team. An executive that properly utilizes our picks and MLE (Pick plus MLE space from Bertans trade) can field a top 5 team in the east.

And Russ. Over his last 14 games he is at 25/10/11 with a 2.4:1 AST:TOV ratio, TS of 54% (If he hit 75% of his FT his TS would be 57%). A proper coach would figure out how to use/stagger him and Beal properly. Thats a clear AS and clear All-NBA caliber player in your backcourt...figure it out.

[nate33]

And Russ. Over his last 14 games he is at 25/10/11 with a 2.4:1 AST:TOV ratio, TS of 54% (If he hit 75% of his FT his TS would be 57%). A proper coach would figure out how to use/stagger him and Beal properly. Thats a clear AS and clear All-NBA caliber player in your backcourt...figure it out.

To be fair, I think Brooks is staggering Westbrook and Beal as perfectly as one could hope. He sits Westbrook at the 6 minute mark, gives him 3 minutes rest, and then has him play the 6 minutes Beal sits. When Beal comes back in Westbrook sits another 3 minutes, and then the two finish the final 6 minutes of the half together. And he makes sure Neto is in the game when Westbrook is out. That's exactly how I would do it.

[NatP4]

Bonga has a +4.0 on/off differential, good for 4th best on the team behind Wagner, Bertans, Avdija. The wizards defensive rating is 16.0 points LOWER with Bonga on the court. The next best differential is Ish Smith at 9.4 points lower.

Pretty clear to me, Bonga should be in the rotation and has won that “other wing” spot over Robinson&Brown. They obviously need help at the C spot, so Brown&Wagner are on the chopping block.

If I have to make a silly win now trade, I’m calling Sacramento. Richaun Holmes is a game changer. There’s been rumors reported everywhere regarding potential interest from the wizards.

Holmes leads the kings in on/off by a MILE. +11.0. Absolute game changer. His offense has caught up to his defense now.

Westbrook (34) Neto (14)
Beal (36) Mathews (12)
Bonga (20) Avdija (24) Mathews (4)
Hachimura (20) Bertans (24) Bonga (4)
Holmes (32) Hachimura (8) Len (8)

Still shipping out Lopez for a 2nd.

[pcbothwel]

Agreed... When I said "Figure it out", I meant more broadly. They have Russ & Beal...so they need to figure out a way to use Rui, Deni, Bryant, Bonga, Mathews, Bertans, and a Top 7 pick.

[payitforward]

PIF... You dont really make sense...

So... what's your point?
Actually, I'd like to bring the argument part of this exchange to a close. I'll try to answer your questions as best I can, ok?

But... not too many people here will want to read this, so I'll make it easy for them to ignore.

Spoiler:

1) You say we are in a long-term rebuild and there is NO WAY AROUND it. So what is long term?...

Maybe the problem here is with the two words, "long-term" & "rebuild."

For one thing, every team is always rebuilding in some sense -- at least that's true unless you have 3 superstars in their prime, as Miami did w/ LeBron, Bosh & Wade. In the nature of things, a team can't stay the same from one year to the next, & if you make that interval 2 years or 3 years, it's fairly obvious.

As to "long-term," the first question is when did the current Wizards rebuild start. I imagine you'd agree that it was with the departure of Ernie after the 2018-19 season. At that point, the franchise wanted to start a new era.

In his last season as our GM, 24 guys played minutes as Wizards -- that's a lot, obviously! But, of those 24 players, only 6 were on the team a few months later as the '19-20 season began: Wall, Beal, Bryant & Brown, obviously, plus Mahinmi (with a mammoth expiring contract) & Jordan McRae. Rui, Wagner, Bonga, Bertans, Ish, Miles, Schofield, Chiozza, Justin Robinson & IT were all new.

So... the current rebuild began in the early Summer of 2019. & it changed the team radically & almost immediately. As the season began, only 3 Wizards had been with the team more than a year. That's a pretty quick & pretty major change!

You ask "when it will end?" -- That's the problem with the phrase "long-term," & it's my bad. I meant a rebuild for the long term. I.e. aiming at, essentially, a new generation of the team. How long that takes is an open question -- what it depends on is success. We're 15-25, so it ain't over yet.

2) You then state that you have NO DESIRE to trade beal. How does that work with point 1?...

Again, a "complete rebuild" of a team isn't defined by 100% all new players. So, I see nothing to explain here.

3) You list numbers of players being shuffled out this next year and state I only want to keep 6(Actually 7 as I want Winston)... But then you fail to acknowledge that the 6 players you listed are 5 starters and the 6th man. Turnover in players 7-15 is NOT a rebuild, but common roster turnover in the modern NBA....

I'm glad you want Winston. I have a good feeling about him too. & I understand what you mean in the last bit, but I disagree: if you just brought in a bunch of young players, & now you are dissatisfied with a lot of them & feel you have to get rid of them, that suggests you are in the middle of a rebuild that isn't going as well as you like.

It's not just players 1-6 as opposed to players 7-15. It's also who your young players are, the guys you're counting on to develop so that your team improves from within.

I'll make my point clear. A good coach with our roster next year (This version of Russ & Beal, plus another offseason for Rui & Deni, and healthy Bryant) can be a playoff team. An executive that properly utilizes our picks and MLE (Pick plus MLE space from Bertans trade) can field a top 5 team in the east....

A "playoff team" means nothing in the NBA, especially one in the Eastern Conference, where right now the #5 team is just over .500. An average NBA team makes the playoffs (by definition, since 16 of 30 do). A well below average team usually makes the playoffs in the East.

If we move Bertans for a pick near the top of R2, & the guy turns out to be a terrific young player (say someone like Tillman) that would be great. But, it hasn't happened yet.

And Russ. Over his last 14 games he is at 25/10/11 with a 2.4:1 AST:TOV ratio, TS of 54% (If he hit 75% of his FT his TS would be 57%). A proper coach would figure out how to use/stagger him and Beal properly. Thats a clear AS and clear All-NBA caliber player in your backcourt...figure it out.

We are 9-8 in our last 17 games; that's really good progress. &, if Russ & Brad play every game the way they played last night, we may never lose again!