trex_8063 wrote:Owly wrote:trex_8063 wrote:Yet Moncrief's prime/career WOWYR are a monstrous +8.6/+4.1, whereas Iverson's are just +1.7/+0.8.
Maybe there's an adjustment for team/cast quality that partly accounts for this. But if so, why doesn't Wilkins [who also had better supporting cast than Iverson most years] look far better than he does via WOWYR??
Again, I cited his WOWY above (though I haven't done SRS change for each year, I do have the it in terms of wins--->which are a larger change than seen with prime Moncrief).
So idk......I don't know why/how guys with same(ish) appearance in WOWY data can have dramatically different WOWYR [or even the guy with the LEAST impressive WOWY having the MOST impressive WOWYR]......especially when there's a dearth of teammate injuries to account for differences.
Some Moncrief data and controlsfrom yhe circa 2015 spreadsheet)
Player, Team, Games Missed, SRS IN, SRS Change, PWins IN, PWins Change, Sample Controls, 95% +/-, SIO, WOWY Score
Moncrief, 81 Bucks, 2, 8.7, 18.1, 64, 47, 25+ In + PS (54), 13.7, 14.1, 2.4
Moncrief, 87 Bucks, 23, 4.8, -2.9, 55, -7, Pressey In (61), 4, -4.7, -3.4
Moncrief, 85 Bucks, 9, 7.5, 7, 61, 19, 0, 7.7, 7.1, 3.9
Moncrief, 86 Bucks, 9, 9.1, 0.2, 65, 0, Hodges In (66), 7.7, 0.4, 0.2
In any case I would say a "career" number might be misleading for Moncrief he gutted out near full seasons through '86 then was seemingly clearly never the same after (see stats but for reference ... reporting at the time ...)
Sidenote: Assume dearth of injuries is regarding Moncrief?
I don't know which spreadsheet is "the circa 2015 spreadsheet" you're referring to [nor who the author is].
But some of the data appears mistaken, if I'm reading the way you charted it correctly:
'87:
*Says he missed 23 games, but he actually missed 43.
**Says their SRS with him in was +4.8, which was -2.9 WORSE than what they were without him [that is: they were a +7.7 without him] (again: if I'm reading this correctly)......which is impossible given they were a +4.04 SRS overall. Unless this is overall [playoff included] SRS??? But I sort of doubt it: they barely squeeked by a mediocre Philly team, then managed to play an excellent Boston team to a stand-still......pretty sure that's not enough to push their overall SRS up into the territory we're talking about, no matter how heavily you weight that Boston series.
***Says they were on pace for 55 wins with him, which was -7 WORSE than what they were on pace for without him......except they only won 50 games that year.
Also, I may not be as math/stat-savvy as you assume; can you tell me what SIO is? I feel like I knew once, but have forgotten.
Sidenote ("dearth of injuries"): I was referring to Nique.
"Dearth" means scarcity or lack of, if I'm not mistaken. And that's largely what we see among his supporting cast during his prime. 2nd year Spud Webb missed a bunch of time, but he was only like a 16 mpg bench player [not a huge impact player even in his prime, anyway]; and Jon Koncak missed significant time in both '88 and '90, iirc. But other than that, none of his supporting cast misses significant time.
Thus, it's unlikely that the apparent consistent lift we seem to see during his prime can be explained away by saying "that's just because so-and-so was out at the same time Nique was out; that's why they dropped off so hard".
I mean, it's [slimly] possible; I admit I did not look at each of Nique's absenses to see who else was out at the same time. But given it was exceedingly rare for anyone on his principle supporting cast to miss more than a half-dozen games [other than the Spud/Koncak exceptions mentioned], it's unlikely for things to have been "skewed" in Nique's favour in that fashion.
As per LA Bird the spreadsheet is Ben/ElGee's.
Was struggling to parse exactly who(se "cast") dearth referred to, assumed not Iverson because as covered previously there were overlapping injuries in Philly. Thanks for clarifying.
Don't know about any disparity re Wilkins. The main noted control used multiple times is the (if I'm reading/recalling it right, and I might not be) 25+ minute requirement on the "in" sample. But he was a big minute player. Still (again assuming I'm reading it correct) the in samples are smaller than expected (43 games in '86, 63 in '87. 67 in '88)