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Race to the bottom: Who's our biggest competition?

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Re: Race to the bottom: Who's our biggest competition? 

Post#281 » by NYPiston » Fri Mar 19, 2021 1:24 pm

Big win for the Wolves last night, did not expect that although the Wolves are playing a lot better than their record indicates similar to the Pistons. The Rockets and Magic are hopeless.

Tonight is a crucial game. I rarely actively root for Pistons losses (even though I want the higher pick) but I will actively root for a loss tonight although I expect a double digit Pistons win.
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Re: Race to the bottom: Who's our biggest competition? 

Post#282 » by Snakebites » Fri Mar 19, 2021 4:43 pm

NYPiston wrote:Big win for the Wolves last night, did not expect that although the Wolves are playing a lot better than their record indicates similar to the Pistons. The Rockets and Magic are hopeless.

Tonight is a crucial game. I rarely actively root for Pistons losses (even though I want the higher pick) but I will actively root for a loss tonight although I expect a double digit Pistons win.

I'd be surprised if we lose. The Rockets are a losing team that cannot be stopped or abated. I have slight pause over the fact that Wood, who I believe will be playing, has most likely had this game marked on his calendar for a long time. Not sure he's enough though.

The Wolves? They're "kinda sorta" turning the corner I think? I still don't expect to finish below them, and it's pretty telling that winning 3 of their last 10 is considered an "uptick". I know they're only one win behind us but I'm still not holding my breath.

The Magic are the team to worry about right now. I think 3rd worst is still our most realistic target.

The Magic and Wolves both have near-certain losses today. This could prove to be a nasty looking day for the tank. Or I guess if miracles happen it could be glorious.
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Re: Race to the bottom: Who's our biggest competition? 

Post#283 » by kpt » Fri Mar 19, 2021 4:57 pm

Yeah Houston is AWEful! There is no way we lose this one. Houston and Orlando have their tank down to a T!
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Re: Race to the bottom: Who's our biggest competition? 

Post#284 » by edmunder_prc » Fri Mar 19, 2021 5:42 pm

Its funny that in the most competitive basketball league in the world, people are saying its hard to lose games.

Weaver tells NBA that Plumlee / Wright / Grant need to sit a few games because they are all possibly being traded. Who cares if its true or not. He can have a talk with all the guys and let them know whats up.

Start Saben Lee / Frank Jackson / Bey / Sekou / Stewart.

Its very likely that team loses all their games. If they don't, Bey is becoming a superstar and thats not so bad either.
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Re: Race to the bottom: Who's our biggest competition? 

Post#285 » by zeebneeb » Fri Mar 19, 2021 6:15 pm

Snakebites wrote:
NYPiston wrote:Big win for the Wolves last night, did not expect that although the Wolves are playing a lot better than their record indicates similar to the Pistons. The Rockets and Magic are hopeless.

Tonight is a crucial game. I rarely actively root for Pistons losses (even though I want the higher pick) but I will actively root for a loss tonight although I expect a double digit Pistons win.

I'd be surprised if we lose. The Rockets are a losing team that cannot be stopped or abated. I have slight pause over the fact that Wood, who I believe will be playing, has most likely had this game marked on his calendar for a long time. Not sure he's enough though.

The Wolves? They're "kinda sorta" turning the corner I think? I still don't expect to finish below them, and it's pretty telling that winning 3 of their last 10 is considered an "uptick". I know they're only one win behind us but I'm still not holding my breath.

The Magic are the team to worry about right now. I think 3rd worst is still our most realistic target.

The Magic and Wolves both have near-certain losses today. This could prove to be a nasty looking day for the tank. Or I guess if miracles happen it could be glorious.
If the Pistons do indeed end up with the third worst record, circle that 7th pick. Nightmare scenario for all of us if the Pistons pick that late again after having to go thru this horrible season.

Do I hope for a top 3? Yup. Do I know that the Pistons luck seems to mirror my own? Yup, so I plan accordingly.

Disappointment, I know it well.
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Re: Race to the bottom: Who's our biggest competition? 

Post#286 » by MotownMadness » Fri Mar 19, 2021 6:22 pm

I've always said tanking to the bottom can be as hard as making the playoffs, lol
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Re: Race to the bottom: Who's our biggest competition? 

Post#287 » by chrbal » Fri Mar 19, 2021 6:26 pm

I’m enjoying reading posts like we’re locked into this roster, when for better or worse we have; a very aggressive gm and seemingly a desire to go after full on upside guesses ( Rose for recent lottery bust Smith).

Also for all the times we suddenly have it together against Toronto, do people not realize Wood has tonight’s game on a target board? Minnesota seems to be going after Aaron Gordon and is getting healthy? Or that in, for example, trading TJ and Rodions for the djs. Houston swapped two players who weren’t participating for a capable guy whose going to want to play (dj the pg) and a guy whose going to want to prove he belongs (dj the forward).

Neither Minnesota or Houston suddenly become amazing, but I’m not committing to anything until after the deadline passes.
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Re: Race to the bottom: Who's our biggest competition? 

Post#288 » by MotownMadness » Fri Mar 19, 2021 6:26 pm

Next year should be fun cause we might be competitive enough to be around the play in tournament while still having some odds to jump up in the lottery
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Re: Race to the bottom: Who's our biggest competition? 

Post#289 » by Snakebites » Fri Mar 19, 2021 6:38 pm

zeebneeb wrote:
Snakebites wrote:
NYPiston wrote:Big win for the Wolves last night, did not expect that although the Wolves are playing a lot better than their record indicates similar to the Pistons. The Rockets and Magic are hopeless.

Tonight is a crucial game. I rarely actively root for Pistons losses (even though I want the higher pick) but I will actively root for a loss tonight although I expect a double digit Pistons win.

I'd be surprised if we lose. The Rockets are a losing team that cannot be stopped or abated. I have slight pause over the fact that Wood, who I believe will be playing, has most likely had this game marked on his calendar for a long time. Not sure he's enough though.

The Wolves? They're "kinda sorta" turning the corner I think? I still don't expect to finish below them, and it's pretty telling that winning 3 of their last 10 is considered an "uptick". I know they're only one win behind us but I'm still not holding my breath.

The Magic are the team to worry about right now. I think 3rd worst is still our most realistic target.

The Magic and Wolves both have near-certain losses today. This could prove to be a nasty looking day for the tank. Or I guess if miracles happen it could be glorious.
If the Pistons do indeed end up with the third worst record, circle that 7th pick. Nightmare scenario for all of us if the Pistons pick that late again after having to go thru this horrible season.

Do I hope for a top 3? Yup. Do I know that the Pistons luck seems to mirror my own? Yup, so I plan accordingly.

Disappointment, I know it well.

Eh, you know I don't go in for all that superstitious hooey.

The odds of falling all the way to 7th at third place are 7 percent. Sure, it's possible, but there's a 93% chance it wouldn't happen.

People talk about how "awful" our luck was dropping to 7th last year, the odds of that (or worse) happening were a bit higher than 1 in 3. People are just struggling to get used to these new odds is all.

Our failure to move up and get good picks prior to last year was the result of having poor odds. It's not voodoo, it's just statistics.
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Re: Race to the bottom: Who's our biggest competition? 

Post#290 » by DetroitSho » Fri Mar 19, 2021 6:45 pm

chrbal wrote:I’m enjoying reading posts like we’re locked into this roster, when for better or worse we have; a very aggressive gm and seemingly a desire to go after full on upside guesses ( Rose for recent lottery bust Smith).

Also for all the times we suddenly have it together against Toronto, do people not realize Wood has tonight’s game on a target board? Minnesota seems to be going after Aaron Gordon and is getting healthy? Or that in, for example, trading TJ and Rodions for the djs. Houston swapped two players who weren’t participating for a capable guy whose going to want to play (dj the pg) and a guy whose going to want to prove he belongs (dj the forward).

Neither Minnesota or Houston suddenly become amazing, but I’m not committing to anything until after the deadline passes.
This is where I'm at. Tonight is probably the biggest game this year when it comes to the tank because it kills 3 birds with one stone. It closes the gap with Minny and brings separation with Houston.

Houston has already done quite a bit of selling, we have most of our selling to do yet. Minny has more potential to be better than worse. I don't understand how Minny is a dumpster fire while we are in danger of the 7th pick, when we only have 1 more win than them.

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Re: Race to the bottom: Who's our biggest competition? 

Post#291 » by MotownMadness » Fri Mar 19, 2021 6:45 pm

I like how the NBA has the lottery system and play in tournament set up right now.

Sure it's scary on a draft like this where falling out of the top5 is frightening but in a normal year where we finish in our normal 7-9th type seasons you have good odds of moving into the top 4.
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Re: Race to the bottom: Who's our biggest competition? 

Post#292 » by BadMofoPimp » Fri Mar 19, 2021 11:28 pm

Basically, the bottom 4 teams have almost the same odds of getting the 1st pick.
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Re: Race to the bottom: Who's our biggest competition? 

Post#293 » by Canadafan » Sat Mar 20, 2021 2:13 am

Snakebites wrote:
zeebneeb wrote:
Snakebites wrote:I'd be surprised if we lose. The Rockets are a losing team that cannot be stopped or abated. I have slight pause over the fact that Wood, who I believe will be playing, has most likely had this game marked on his calendar for a long time. Not sure he's enough though.

The Wolves? They're "kinda sorta" turning the corner I think? I still don't expect to finish below them, and it's pretty telling that winning 3 of their last 10 is considered an "uptick". I know they're only one win behind us but I'm still not holding my breath.

The Magic are the team to worry about right now. I think 3rd worst is still our most realistic target.

The Magic and Wolves both have near-certain losses today. This could prove to be a nasty looking day for the tank. Or I guess if miracles happen it could be glorious.
If the Pistons do indeed end up with the third worst record, circle that 7th pick. Nightmare scenario for all of us if the Pistons pick that late again after having to go thru this horrible season.

Do I hope for a top 3? Yup. Do I know that the Pistons luck seems to mirror my own? Yup, so I plan accordingly.

Disappointment, I know it well.

Eh, you know I don't go in for all that superstitious hooey.

The odds of falling all the way to 7th at third place are 7 percent. Sure, it's possible, but there's a 93% chance it wouldn't happen.

People talk about how "awful" our luck was dropping to 7th last year, the odds of that (or worse) happening were a bit higher than 1 in 3. People are just struggling to get used to these new odds is all.

Our failure to move up and get good picks prior to last year was the result of having poor odds. It's not voodoo, it's just statistics.


Could we get you to post a link to the odds if you got one handy?
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Re: Race to the bottom: Who's our biggest competition? 

Post#294 » by Snakebites » Sat Mar 20, 2021 2:59 am

Canadafan wrote:
Snakebites wrote:
zeebneeb wrote:If the Pistons do indeed end up with the third worst record, circle that 7th pick. Nightmare scenario for all of us if the Pistons pick that late again after having to go thru this horrible season.

Do I hope for a top 3? Yup. Do I know that the Pistons luck seems to mirror my own? Yup, so I plan accordingly.

Disappointment, I know it well.

Eh, you know I don't go in for all that superstitious hooey.

The odds of falling all the way to 7th at third place are 7 percent. Sure, it's possible, but there's a 93% chance it wouldn't happen.

People talk about how "awful" our luck was dropping to 7th last year, the odds of that (or worse) happening were a bit higher than 1 in 3. People are just struggling to get used to these new odds is all.

Our failure to move up and get good picks prior to last year was the result of having poor odds. It's not voodoo, it's just statistics.


Could we get you to post a link to the odds if you got one handy?


Surprisingly Wikipedia has a really good breakdown in table form of the current lotto odds- they tell you what your odds are of landing at each spot with a given lotto position.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NBA_draft_lottery#Chances_of_winning

The overall takeway is that the lowest parts of the lottery are to be avoided at all costs, but even if you're at 7-9 you have at least some hope of moving up. The tradeoff is that even as the worst team you have a nearly 50% chance of falling all the way to 5th.
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Re: Race to the bottom: Who's our biggest competition? 

Post#295 » by MotownMadness » Sat Mar 20, 2021 3:32 am

Ok 3rd is where I predicted us to end up at in the end. Hopefully we don't drop any further
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Re: Race to the bottom: Who's our biggest competition? 

Post#296 » by Canadafan » Sat Mar 20, 2021 10:10 am

Wow....thanks Snakebites. The graph showing the percentages of your odds of landing a specific spot....eye opening. Lol. Ya we definitely need to lose every single game from here on out so we are at least guaranteed to be top5 pick and no worse.
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Re: Race to the bottom: Who's our biggest competition? 

Post#297 » by ducler » Mon Mar 22, 2021 8:40 am

Cavs win is a good thing. Rockets still clutch with the lose: that last play called was marvelous.

Unfortunately, LaMelo has fractured his wrist. The positive of it is that this SRP we own from the Hornets will be higher without him in their last 31 games...
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Re: Race to the bottom: Who's our biggest competition? 

Post#298 » by DetroitSho » Mon Mar 22, 2021 11:53 am

ducler wrote:Cavs win is a good thing. Rockets still clutch with the lose: that last play called was marvelous.

Unfortunately, LaMelo has fractured his wrist. The positive of it is that this SRP we own from the Hornets will be higher without him in their last 31 games...
Just read about this and came here to post this. At this point I want the draft order to be 1. Detroit 2. Charlotte 3. Toronto. Both those 2nd round picks people were bitchin about is getting better everyday.

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Re: Race to the bottom: Who's our biggest competition? 

Post#299 » by Laimbeer » Mon Mar 22, 2021 12:39 pm

Man I didn't realize Houston has lost 20 in a row. :o There's no catching them.

I agree that Minny has the potential to put a little something together.

Orlando has me a little nervous. Just two games behind us and 1-9 in their last ten.
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Re: Race to the bottom: Who's our biggest competition? 

Post#300 » by Collymore » Mon Mar 22, 2021 8:50 pm

The Wizards and Magic are racking up L's like there is no tomorrow and I'm not comfortable counting out the Cavs. It's in their DNA to pull off a 0-10 streak just when you think they are not in the mix anymore.

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