What is Jayson Tatum's ceiling?

[ballup]

His last 15 games he’s averaging 22.5/7/5 with 2.4 turnovers a game. The shooting splits are ugly as can be lol, 39% from the field, 31% from 3. Though he has been getting to the line more, 6.2 times a game, and hitting at 87%.

It was his least efficient month of his career, shot 6% below his career number from the field, and 9% below his career number from three. Yeah he takes a ton of difficult threes, but he did last year too, and at a higher clip, while shooting 40% from deep. Before covid he was at 45% on 8 attempts a game, so part of it was course correction, but covid clearly robbed him of his legs, which has killed him from 3.

I bet the all star break makes a huge difference with him. I think we see him average something like 26/7/5 in the second half, with 45/38ish splits by the end of the season. This is contingent on him getting his legs back, so fingers crossed.

That's the thing with covid, it affects people differently. Westbrook had it affecting him months later. Hopefully Tatum gets back 100, but with how small margins these guys play, we can still see decreased performance for a while

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[zoyathedestroya]

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Need that efficiency to go up. Can't be taking the most shots while having the 4th worst TS% on the team. More threes, FT, and rim. Less midrange and less floaters. I also expect his defense to get better in the 2nd half once we're fully healthy.

[bisme37]

Hey here's a nice interview with Tatum's high school coach that aired on NBATV recently. I can't embed the video so you'll have to click the link.

https://www.nba.com/watch/video/shooters-paradise-frank-bennett-jayson-tatums-coach

[Feed Your Head]

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[Bleeding Green]

I'm not letting my kids on the internet until they are 35.

[zoyathedestroya]

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The anticipation, steal, behind-the-back for a reverse layup was some Paul George / Kawhi Leonard ****. I love it when Tatum is engaged on D.

I don't think he took a single floater in this game. Attack from the side, use the glass. Also made quick decisions in semi-transition which led to easy scores.

[peachbucket]

Super scoring talent but low bball is to me tempers his upside for me as top 5 player....maybe he gets smarter as he gets older but I’m skeptical.

[flintsky21]

His go-to move is a contested stepback 3. He can't consistently finish to the basket nor draw fouls. Maybe he'll take yet another step, but he's really more of a Robin than a Batman right now.

[bisme37]

68 days after testing positive, something is off.

“I don’t feel the same that I did before I had it.”

He's still feeling the COVID. For everything else that's falling apart around us, I hope JT eventually gets back to feeling well. For him and our team.

https://www.truehoop.com/p/some-nba-players-feel-covid-effects

[BostonCouchGM]

when he doesn't play defense at a high level like last season, he's essentially Melo 2.0 for whatever that's worth. Personally, I hate black holes like Melo who don't do the little things nor play defense. Maybe it's COVID, maybe it's coaching. Whatever it is, he either shows me he's better than this or he too can get shipped.

[zoyathedestroya]

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So he's basically elite except his defense has been poor?

[Feed Your Head]

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So he's basically elite except his defense has been poor?

I love the new LEBRON stat, and b-ball index in general. They take difficulty of shots into it, how you’re defended, luck, pretty much any variables are taken into account.

Tatum is 15th overall in the stat, which feels right IMO. I jumped the gun calling him a top 9-12 player going into the season, but he’s been REALLY good. Obviously there are warts, and there’s been significant growing pains, but you still see the team fall off a cliff when he isn’t in the game.

His shot selection drives me ******* crazy, and his defense has clearly taken a step back, though he’s still amazing in spurts, like the 4th quarter of that Bucks game. He’s made massive leaps in playmaking, he takes really good care of the ball, and he’s finishing at 70% within 3 feet, an 8% increase from last year. I get why people are frustrated with him at times, but he’s still on track to be a legitimate elite player.

[zoyathedestroya]

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[Feed Your Head]

Posted this in the VC thread, but deserves to be here too.

On the topic of Tatum and ball stopping, this stat puts it in perspective some. He absolutely holds onto the ball too long, but I think he’s a pretty willing passer, for the most part. He’s also 12th in the LEBRON stat, and 2nd in the league in luck adjusted RAPM. Dude is starting to get rolling like last year, good stuff heading down the stretch.

He has excellent court vision, is able to thread the needle on many passes, and has some of the best gravity in the NBA. In fact, according to BBall Index’s player tracking statistics, Jayson Tatum has the 3rd-best scoring gravity in the NBA and the 9th-best playmaker rating among starting forwards.

https://hardwoodhoudini.com/2021/04/04/boston-celtics-tatum-banner-18/amp/?__twitter_impression=true

[BostonCouchGM]

the problem with Tatum right now is when he's the initiator and run the offense he doesn't penetrate off screens enough. He uses these mostly to force a switch so he can then go ISO which usually ends up with a stepback three. You watch Luka, Harden, etc and they also do that but often drive which opens up things for the roller or leaves guys wide open for kick outs. He needs to do this more to take the next step. He's capable though he needs to improve his handle and willingness to absorb contact going to the rim. If he doesn't incorporate this into this game he doesn't have much upside beyond what he currently is. If Tatum does do this, he can increase assists to 6-7, his scoring to 28 and he'd be a potential top 5 player assuming his defense didn't take a hit.

[Feed Your Head]

Pre Covid (10 games): 27/7/4 on 47/44 splits, 59% TS
Post Covid(21 games):24/7/5 on 43/37 splits, 54% TS
Post ASB (13 games): 26/7/4 on a 49/40 splits, 58% TS.

Obviously covid doesn’t explain everything, there was some bad basketball being played by him, but does lend some credence to his comments about how it impacted him.

[moonie_mcgee]

Tatums ceiling is so much higher than Brown's. Someone had a great point about slashers that usually land on their feet and those that hit the deck. Tatum is the former, Brown is the latter. The take was that elite finishers play with force, play through contact and play longer.

[playa-hater]

Absolutely nothing should have changed with Tatum's ceiling. The man needs to fix some major flaws no question. he needs a coach to slap him or something. And he needs to tell his long time trainer, stop teaching me the dribble dribble dribble step side 3, and that stupid F ing one legged fade away but Tatum's potential is still sky freaking high.

[KumaJG]

Media needs to relax with the criticism of our players. This is not a normal nba season. We should treat it as such.

[LoquaciousLarry]

A better peak Paul George.

Speaking of Paul...I've read some pretty outlandish takes that Tatum right now is better than prime Paul Peirce.

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I'm the biggest Paul Pierce fan, but it's true that right now Jayson Tatum is already better than prime Paul Pierce.

Pierce was a 2nd tier superstar.

Jayson Tatum is a young superstar who will be a 1st tier superstar in a couple of seasons.

Tatums not bettter than prime Pierce. He might get there but he's not close to the all around player.