Worst case scenario..lot of assumptions

Beethoven · Post #1 » by **Beethoven** » Sun Mar 21, 2021 2:57 pm

So let's assume both BRON (high ankle sprain six weeks assumption) and AD sit out rest of the regular season
And that the role players win the rest of their games at a .350 clip.

LAL 30 games remaining x .350 = 10 wins more

Comparing that w the relevant teams that we need to gauge ourselves against ( and assuming these teams win at their current win rate):

Phoenix 32 games remaining x .675 = 22 wins more
clips 29 games remaining x .628 = 18 wins more
Denver (one of the mid tier teams w same W/L at
the moment) 31 games remaining x .610 = 19 wins more
Dal (current 8th seed) 32 games remaining x .525 = 17 wins more

Final W/L will be (assuming the few covid postponed games are eventually played down the road):

Phoenix 49 W. 23 L.
clippers 45 W. 27 L.
Denver 44 W. 28 L.
Dallas 38 W. 34 L.
Lakers 38 W. 34 L.

We will be in seeding tournament for 7th/8th seed.

That is the worst case scenario.

If we get AD back after a couple weeks and he gets re acclimated? Perhaps we can add a 4 or 5 more games onto that final tally. Right at around 6th seed - 7th seed.

TylersLakers · Post #2 » by **TylersLakers** » Sun Mar 21, 2021 3:32 pm

I don't see LeBron being out the remainder of the season. For high ankle sprains where the guy has to be carried off the court and it touches the ground and everything (Lonzo a few years ago), it can be 8 weeks or more. LeBron could walk, shoot a three pointer, stretch it, etc. That's good news.

But love the breakdown. It's imperative we win the easy games. We cannot afford to drop games to the Magic or Cavaliers in this stretch.

Post #3 » by **Kilroy** » Sun Mar 21, 2021 5:05 pm

Thing with sprains like this though is, it's not so much about how you feel right after the injury, but how you feel the next day and the day after... If we saw video of him shooting today or tomorrow, then you could say maybe he'd be back pretty quick, but if we don't see him for a while or see him hobbling, he may need the full worst case...

chefy · Post #4 » by **chefy** » Sun Mar 21, 2021 5:25 pm

Beethoven · Post #5 » by **Beethoven** » Sun Mar 21, 2021 6:59 pm

^ i believe in Kuzma. I really sincerely do.
He'll lead the team and step up and win some games for us.

Cuz if he don't we trade his ass

tamaraw08 · Post #6 » by **tamaraw08** » Sun Mar 21, 2021 9:58 pm

Beethoven wrote:So let's assume both BRON (high ankle sprain six weeks assumption) and AD sit out rest of the regular season
And that the role players win the rest of their games at a .350 clip.

LAL 30 games remaining x .350 = 10 wins more

Comparing that w the relevant teams that we need to gauge ourselves against ( and assuming these teams win at their current win rate):

Phoenix 32 games remaining x .675 = 22 wins more
clips 29 games remaining x .628 = 18 wins more
Denver (one of the mid tier teams w same W/L at
the moment) 31 games remaining x .610 = 19 wins more
Dal (current 8th seed) 32 games remaining x .525 = 17 wins more

Final W/L will be (assuming the few covid postponed games are eventually played down the road):

Phoenix 49 W. 23 L.
clippers 45 W. 27 L.
Denver 44 W. 28 L.
Dallas 38 W. 34 L.
Lakers 38 W. 34 L.

We will be in seeding tournament for 7th/8th seed.

That is the worst case scenario.

If we get AD back after a couple weeks and he gets re acclimated? Perhaps we can add a 4 or 5 more games onto that final tally. Right at around 6th seed - 7th seed.

Well I thought you’re more skeptical than me because seeing them win 35% of their games is not the worst scenario imo, it’s winning 20% or less. So I hope you are right, bec like what Kblo said getting them to 8th place would be good enough, 9th or 10th would be too risky

RamonSessions7 · Post #7 » by **RamonSessions7** » Sun Mar 21, 2021 10:02 pm

Worst case scenario is Lebron is too old and AD too injury prone to bounce back from the start of their age/injury related downfalls and 3/4 of the lakers salary cap is locked in

Beethoven · Post #8 » by **Beethoven** » Sun Mar 21, 2021 10:28 pm

tamaraw08 wrote:Well I thought you’re more skeptical than me because seeing them win 35% of their games is not the worst scenario imo, it’s winning 20% or less. So I hope you are right, bec like what Kblo said getting them to 8th place would be good enough, 9th or 10th would be too risky

Tanking teams or organizations where the coaching and management is a mess , or they got no game plan for the season lose 20 percent of their games , so out of a 82 game season you will see these teams win only about 16 games total.

You see good teams like the Portland blazers a few times in past seasons where they still hold their head up above the water winning at least 25-30 games or more w like half their roster injured at some point. Good teams but just sheer out of luck. 25-30 out of 82 That is approx .350 win percentage.

I believe we are one of these, we have a capable staff and the team still has enough skill set to win a few, i mean, this is still a team w a ton of pride and good work ethic. There isn't anything to suggest a bit of overacheiving would be an impossibility but maybe even expected here than more so w other teams if put into a similar situation.

But again, this is w bron AND ad missing the rest of the reg season.

Dr Aki · Post #9 » by **Dr Aki** » Tue Mar 23, 2021 12:50 am

Lebron w/o AD/Schroder, we went 0-4

What's gonna be better with Schroder and no Lebron/AD?

I'm mentally prepared to lose every game due to lack of playmaking

Beethoven · Post #10 » by **Beethoven** » Tue Mar 23, 2021 4:56 pm

Spoiler:

Again, assuming Bron and AD are both out for the remainder of these games. And No move made by Thursday.
Perhaps not all Ws for those but also, at any given night, we can take one or two of the other ones as well. You never know.
Just good enough for .350 win rate.

tamaraw08 · Post #11 » by **tamaraw08** » Wed Mar 24, 2021 3:40 pm

Beethoven wrote:Mar 23, 2021
7:30 PM ET @New Orleans WIN?

Again, assuming Bron and AD are both out for the remainder of these games. And No move made by Thursday.
Perhaps not all Ws for those but also, at any given night, we can take one or two of the other ones as well. You never know.
Just good enough for .350 win rate.

Team as a whole Shot 48% from 3 and they got clobbered so what happens when they revert to shooting 30% from 3 vs the Magic, Kings etc?

Beethoven · Post #12 » by **Beethoven** » Wed Mar 24, 2021 3:41 pm

Yeah we are going to lose until Bron comes back. Nevermind this thread.

SweetTouch · Post #13 » by **SweetTouch** » Wed Mar 24, 2021 7:22 pm

I got faith in this team of knuckleheads and OutKast’s

All they need to do is win3-5 games, they should rest the other games and not play our role players (now starters) big minutes

**** Adam silver
Forfeit the game because of too few players available

bb22 · Post #14 » by **bb22** » Fri Mar 26, 2021 6:49 pm

As Jim Mora put it:
“I just hope we can win a game!”

Post #15 » by **zimpy27** » Sat Apr 3, 2021 8:26 am

Pretty pretty pretty good

Beethoven · Post #16 » by **Beethoven** » Mon Apr 5, 2021 2:46 am

Spoiler:

Beethoven · Post #17 » by **Beethoven** » Wed Apr 7, 2021 4:01 pm

Spoiler:

(As of morning of 4/7/21)
Well, things slightly changed regarding the rest of the teams we are competing against in the standings.
They are winning at a slightly higher rate (all of them) for some reason, so I recalibrated the final standings to see what we are more accurately looking at:

Final W/L will be (assuming the few covid postponed games are eventually played down the road):

Currently:
Phoenix 35 14 current win rate .714 remaining games 23 = 17 wins more
Clippers 34 18 current win rate .654 remaining games 20 = 13 wins more
Nuggets 32 18 current win rate .640 remaining games 22 = 14 wins more
Lakers 32 19
Blazers 30 20 current win rate .600 remaining games 22 = 13 wins more
Mavericks 28 21 current win rate .571 remaining games 23 = 13 wins more

Final standings:

2nd Phoenix 52 W. 20 L.
3rd Clippers 47 W. 25 L.
4th Nuggets 46 W. 26 L.
5th Blazers 43 W. 29 L.
* Mavericks 41 W. 31 L.

* Lakers at currently 32 19 , we got to win toward at least 41 31 to match Mavericks to stay out of the play-in tournament including one more win against Mavs (Mavs will drop to 7 and we will be 6 seed). Or else Mavs take the 6th seed.

Can we win 9 more games?

Spoiler:

There are only a few above winnable without Bron and AD , but good news is, it is looking like LeBron will be back this month. Not sure at what capacity he will be able to play when he does return but the last handful of games in May look to be something of a goal to go on a win streak to end it off. In that case, we can definitely win at least 9 more games including one more win against Mavs. If LeBron is still a bit gimpy and AD is less than 80% capability when he returns who knows when, the worst case is Play-in Tournament again

Spoiler:

Beethoven · Post #18 » by **Beethoven** » Wed Apr 14, 2021 6:20 pm

Who knew we would come out of that seven-game road trip alive, let alone winning at 4-3 . We absolutely had a chance also to win a couple more games.

Looks like so far we are definitely weathering the storm w a cool .462 win record ( 6 W - 7 L ) since Lebron went out.
Remember , a lot of those games we were missing key players like Kuzma, Gasol, Wes, Morris, AD2, etc. (and AD of course)

Also important, is to look at how we lost the ones we lost:

*Mar21 @Phoenix Suns Loss 94-111
Just got beat by a better team that nite. Lost it in the 2nd mostly. No Gasol. Suns had full team , we couldnt match up against Ayton who had 26 pts.

*Mar23 @New Orleans Pelicans Loss 111-128
Again, just got beat by a better team at that time. Lost it in the 2nd and 3rd quarters, but we surged back in the 4th. No Gasol. Ingram and Zion went for 63 points total. Steve Adams chipped in 12 points and 7 boards as we had Morris and Trez at center. No Lonzo Ball.
*Also, I think these last two games was initially a mental low period for the team right after losing LeBron. The emergence of team mental toughness and resolution (and results from Vogel making tons of adjustments) started to manifest later , which lead to our .500 win record eventually.

Mar25 Philly @Lakers Loss 109-101
We kept it together the first half then they went on a run in the 3rd. We came back again in the 4th to make it really close and had a chance to win. Danny Green had his best game of the year making a few dozen 3pters.

Mar31 Bucks @Lakers Loss 112-97
Just got beat out by a better team. Drummond debuted here, played awkwardly in his first game, and got injured.

Apr4 @Clippers Loss 86-104
Blowout loss. No Drummond, no Wes Matthews. Full team by the clippers; no load management

Apr8 @Miami Loss 104-110
We kept it close. It was a competitive game we could have had a win here. No Gasol, no Kuzma, no THT, but Drummond returned and McLemore debuted.

Apr12 @NY Knicks Loss 96-111
Couldnt understand this one. Full team we had. I believe this is just a game of lack of heart and focus. We should have won this one honestly.

So, we could have won three of these; the other four bad losses is just we were the worse team. But I do believe, w the team's resolve now and experience growth, going back to either the Suns and New Orleans, the result may be different.

Beethoven · Post #19 » by **Beethoven** » Fri May 7, 2021 6:08 pm

Beethoven wrote:So let's assume both BRON (high ankle sprain six weeks assumption) and AD sit out rest of the regular season
And that the role players win the rest of their games at a .350 clip.

LAL 30 games remaining x .350 = 10 wins more

...

We will be in seeding tournament for 7th/8th seed.

That is the worst case scenario.

Not that I want to pat myself on the back for this Original post, but looks like we have faced literally the worst case scenario, and my prediction is coming to fruition here.

What I wanted to say here by bumping this back up, is that we cant get any worse than 7th seed from this point out.
Even if we just lose all six of our remaining reg season games.
We will maintain 7th.

GSW and Memphis both are four games behind us but we have the tiebreaker over both of those teams. Essentially they have to win five out of their remaining six to beat us out to the 7th seed. IF we lose all our reg games.
They also play each other one game as well, so they will, at least, one of them have an L already.
Forget SAS, they have to go perfect to beat us out (and their remaining games are all against contending teams).

That is the positive behind all of this. Yeah, losing all six reg season games to just rest up everyone is not a good look, brings down team morale, and is not a good habit to be heading into the playoffs, but at least we have that buffer though.