Lonzo Ball Thread (UPDATE: Bulls Offer Sato + 2nd Round picks)

[Hugi Mancura]

If Lonzo can keep this up he will get minimum offer of 20M$. To put this to perspective. If we compare him to Lavine on same age and with same experience. I did take Lavine's last year in Minnesota stats instead of taking his numbers from first year with Bulls. He was less efficient scorer, but other stats were little bit higher except teams worst +-.

Per 36 (Lavine played 5 minutes more per game).
Lavine 18.9p (57.6ts%), 3.3rebs, 2.9ass, 1.7tov, 0.8stl, 0.2blk and teams worst +-.
Ball 16.1p(56.2ts%), 4.7rebs, 6.3ass, 2.3tov, 1.5stl, 0.6blk and teams best +-.

Who would you offer 19.5M$?

Young players are problematic after their first contract. They are still improving so it is very hard to know what they will be in 3-4 years. If you compare them to players who are in their prime you would NEVER sign Lavine. He was nowhere near worth 19.5M$ per year. Signing second contracts are always risky business. Sometimes you win sometimes you lose. If you want to play safe you will never win anything in NBA. Well, maybe if you are GM of Lakers you might, but team in cold north?

[Hangtime84]

If you go for guys on their second contract you want guys who shown they can improve every year.

But I agree evaluation of young players every year post rookie contract is hard to gauge. Sabonis, Harden, LaVine and Dipo are a few that come to mind.

Overprice players like Kanter, M. Plumlee, and Parsons are others.

[MrSparkle]

If you go for guys on their second contract you want guys who shown they can improve every year.

But I agree evaluation of young players every year post rookie contract is hard to gauge. Sabonis, Harden, LaVine and Dipo are a few that come to mind.

Overprice players like Kanter, M. Plumlee, and Parsons are others.

Common thing with these 4 was they had 3-dimensional games, and each guy was potentially capable of shooting the ball from various spots in half-court. Yes, Zach was a chucker but even fresh off the ACL injury, he still had an elite first step and athleticism - pretty much unstoppable in iso (his finishing around rim was another story). So you'd consider his room to grow in drawing fouls, lay-ups, and improving 3P%, and hopefully cutting down on bad turnovers. To my surprise he's become a pretty solid passer in high usage. Nothing remotely close to Harden, but gone are the days of bringing the ball up the floor for 16 seconds into an ugly contested brick.

I haven't watch as much Lonzo this year, but prior years, he struck me as a guy who doesn't really threaten anybody off-the-dribble. A very boring player in half-court. Potentially brilliant passing ability, but Rubio and Rondo were assist virtuosos too, and their careers have been up and down. With Rondo, before his ACL, he peaked as a capable scorer on hot nights: https://www.landofbasketball.com/nba_players_stats/top_pts/rajon_rondo.htm Who else remembers the crazy 44/10/8 game? I don't think Lonzo has the first step and foul-drawing ability to ever pull that off. But he does have good length, and if he added more weight to his frame, he could be a very interesting hybrid point-wing.

His 3P% on assisted shots is nice. I don't think his 2P scoring really exists. Any contested shot is basically a confidence prayer. Maybe eventually he comes around to hitting floaters and lay-ups in traffic. That's my main hang-up. LaMelo is making up for that FG crux, but LaMelo does have an elite first step and more irrational confidence.

Hearing that LAC is pursuing him... that could be a good fit. I think Bulls are risking a lot playing RFA market with him. I'm imagining a $20-25m annual offer (maybe even 30), and I'm not gambling our top-option money there right now.

[bearadonisdna]

FA pointguards aint bare.
UFA:
mike conley
kyle lowry
victor oladipo

Lowry may be there, but IMO, Conley stays put and Dipo (who I'd try to trade for now) isn't a PG (but I'd still take him and let Zach be PG).

here is vid of oladipo looking good running the offense, looks primarily a point guard here.
based on public perception i too though oladipo isnt particularly a full time point guard but looks really good here.

if its between him and zach i think oladipo is more the natural pointguard.

Watch on YouTube

[HomoSapien]

Clippers are going after Lonzo, which should signal that he's still possibly available despite his strong play. Outside of Zubac, I don't really see what they can offer and even that seems like a meh return for NO.

If Zubac is actually appealing to them, then I'd offer a choice of Carter or Coby straight up.

[CaPiTanAK]

Clippers are going after Lonzo, which should signal that he's still possibly available despite his strong play. Outside of Zubac, I don't really see what they can offer and even that seems like a meh return for NO.

If Zubac is actually appealing to them, then I'd offer a choice of Carter or Coby straight up.

I would offer both of them up for Lonzo Ball. If they need a sweetener, I would throw in Lauri as well.

[DroseReturnChi]

If Lonzo can keep this up he will get minimum offer of 20M$. To put this to perspective. If we compare him to Lavine on same age and with same experience. I did take Lavine's last year in Minnesota stats instead of taking his numbers from first year with Bulls. He was less efficient scorer, but other stats were little bit higher except teams worst +-.

Per 36 (Lavine played 5 minutes more per game).
Lavine 18.9p (57.6ts%), 3.3rebs, 2.9ass, 1.7tov, 0.8stl, 0.2blk and teams worst +-.
Ball 16.1p(56.2ts%), 4.7rebs, 6.3ass, 2.3tov, 1.5stl, 0.6blk and teams best +-.

Who would you offer 19.5M$?

Young players are problematic after their first contract. They are still improving so it is very hard to know what they will be in 3-4 years. If you compare them to players who are in their prime you would NEVER sign Lavine. He was nowhere near worth 19.5M$ per year. Signing second contracts are always risky business. Sometimes you win sometimes you lose. If you want to play safe you will never win anything in NBA. Well, maybe if you are GM of Lakers you might, but team in cold north?

He was already going to get offered 20 before the streak. Now, hes still keeping up and going to get 25~max.
Now that he is that expensive, its better not to offer assets and bid him in rfa. The Bulls could offer the max since Ball would be essentially replacing expiring Otto and help Lauri become a legit 2/all star.

That Lavine contract was one of the worst offered even garpax reluctantly matched the offer. no team except the kings would ever offer a huge amount even in todays standards Lauri is struggling to get.
Not sure why Lavine trashed the Bulls and showed love for Kings offering the contract I guess he has no loyalty which implies he could leave soon.

[Repeat 3-peat]

Read on Twitter

Per KOC, Bulls offered Sato+2nd round pick(s)

[Chi town]

Read on Twitter

Per KOC, Bulls offered Sato+2nd round pick(s)

Don’t know why AK would want to pay Lonzo. He really is wanting to make the playoffs.

You’d think Griffin would take Reddish over Sato and 2nds.

[HomoSapien]

Chicago has offered Tomas Satoransky and second-round picks, but New Orleans is asking for at least one good first-round pick or a young player.

No chance anyone takes Sato and 2nd over Reddish, and that's coming from someone who thinks Reddish is garbage. Why not just offer Coby or Wendel? Clearly, neither is a long-term piece.

Maybe we can offer a pick swap?

[Chi town]

If you trade for Lonzo and pay him 18-20M per you are really banking on his trends continuing.

Sato at 10M seems like a better play but if you think Lonzo gets better and can figure out some halfcourt offense then it could be a a solid deal. I do like getting guys entering their prime and trending up.

[patagonia]

Reddish isn't good.

[CaPiTanAK]

If what it takes for AK to close the deal is a young player, WCJ and Coby White better pack their bags. Easily done. Let’s get it done and get this team a real pg instead of bums for once.

[ChiCitySPORTS#1]

We can’t beat Reddish for what we should reasonably offering for a RFA. Lonzo is a better Sato, which feels like a really good fit. But not trading Coby or WCJ for him as much as I hate them both when we could sign him in the off-season.

[Ice Man]

Reddish isn't good.

No he's not, but I can see why a team might gamble on Reddish figuring it out rather than take Sato + a second round pick, which barring 1-in-20 chance of striking gold with the second round pick is a trade that has no upside at all for NO.

[ChiCitySPORTS#1]

Also how many PGs do they need in Atlanta?

[ChiCitySPORTS#1]

Reddish isn't good.

No he's not, but I can see why a team might gamble on Reddish figuring it out rather than take Sato + a second round pick, which barring 1-in-20 chance of striking gold with the second round pick is a trade that has no upside at all for NO.

Also Zions former duke teammate. Upside is enough to probably beat any other deal teams are offering. Low risk high reward for NOLA

[Chi town]

WCJ for Lonzo is the trade to make. NOLA won’t want WCJ but they could get a 3rd team to jump in.

Lonzo will be resigning with whoever trades for him. You won’t get him in FA. He will be traded too IMO.

I could see...

Bulls: Lonzo

Wolves: WCJ

NOLA: Culver

I’d take Culver over Reddish.

[sco]

Welp, at least we tried. Reddish does suck, but he has a better perceived value. I'd be throwing White in before Sato because 6th man tweener guards grow on trees in the NBA.

[CaPiTanAK]

We can’t beat Reddish for what we should reasonably offering for a RFA. Lonzo is a better Sato, which feels like a really good fit. But not trading Coby or WCJ for him as much as I hate them both when we could sign him in the off-season.

This is a great opportunity to get out of overpaid WCJ contract for his trash production. Think about it. He’s scheduled to make 7 mil next year when Dwight Howard is being paid 2-3 mil a year. Pack his Emo bag and don’t look back.