trex_8063 wrote:But it's still important to think about. Especially when we have evidence ['93] that Hornacek is not going to thrive in just any old environment in the same way that KJ could.
Notes on this/First thoughts:
I favor KJ but ...
Philly '93 not an optimal barometer for Hornacek.
JH not without significant value in Philly.
Tangent: Phoenix didn't get much better despite arguable talent upgrades.
Sansterre seems to be arguing impact data as KJ didn't "thrive" that much in any environment (i.e. the ones he was in).
Some of the measures behind these are noisy and as such to be taken as possibilities rather than certainties.
1) Moe's freelance passing offense was arguably not suited to Hornacek but certainly not to what do not seem like a collection of high bb-iq, high motor, strong passing, (strong shooting) players required for a freewheeling decision making offense (the "maybe not a fit for him - not a fit for the players" ideas come from the Barry handbook). Hornacek is also functioning as pg this year, which ... he could do but it's probably not best use of him and takes away from his off-ball game.
2) Philly lose the 3 games he's out (by 5 in OT, home to NYK; by 14 road to NJN; by 6 road to BC). Hard to say it's meaningful and may have been a strategy or philosophy thing (giving bench guys time in garbage time, junking the game up, keep the guys who got you behind out, keep the guys who dropped you out of the game out on the floor, rest your best players - it's often not just Hornacek and probably not a simple cause and effect thing) but the games Hornacek plays less than 24mpg are really bad too (two 56 point losses, a 38 point loss and a 24 point loss, all on the road). Noisy measures all, but some things to consider perhaps.
3 (tangent)) Super noisy with significant turnover, but I'd say the other outs in the trade are replaced (Lang - Miller) or upgraded (Perry - Dumas and more/better Ceballos), Ainge added ... but significant loss of time for KJ. It's probably too noisy to make much out but Phoenix didn't improve that much adding what some seem to consider peak Barkley.
4) I don't know about the details of the impact data for KJ's prime, and haven't read super closely but the argument seems to be that KJ wasn't that impactful, so perhaps arguably not thriving. I don't know on this one.
I think the big pro for KJ (if you believe all of it) that I've seen perhaps alluded to but not (at a glance) as a key, simple, emphasized point is
a) a higher peak (though the extent of this may vary depending on [box-composite-y] metric of choice)
and
b) high peaks and bigger difference from league average scaling in a non-linear way to title odds.













