2021 Draft thread. Woo! 15th pick here we come! Hoo. Ray.

[nate33]

Probably the 2nd best defensive player in the country behind Mobley, shooting the 3 at 38% on a solid amount of attempts. Excellent free throw shooter. Much better playmaker and driver, more explosive and stronger athlete, better frame than Otto Porter (who was an excellent player when healthy). Would you rather have a healthy prime Otto Porter, or a present day Jayson Tatum?

Regardless, you should name the 6-7 players that will be better NBA players than Wagner. Suggs&Mobley will be good, Green&Cunningham are solid bets to be volume scorers. Who else? Who are the 5th and 6th guys? And why?

I wish there was a decent draft database to explore. I'd like to know how many sophomores who averaged less than 13 points per game were drafted in the top 5.

And I don't have an answer to your question about the who the 5th and 6th guys are because I haven't assessed all the prospects in this draft well enough to rank them. (And I don't plan to. I don't know how guys like Dat2U do it.) I'm just saying that history suggests that a glue guy role player is unlikely to be the 3rd best guy in a strong draft class. At spots that high, you usually expect guys who can create their own shot or big men who can change a game defensively. I'm not knocking Wagner. I agree that he is good. Just not top 3 good.

Not that many sophomores get taken in the top 5- Hunter has been the only one taken in the last 8 years between 2014 and 2020 - bolded ones that averaged less than 13 ppg.

DeAndre Hunter- 2019 (15 ppg)
Otto Porter 2013 (16 ppg)
Cody Zeller 2013 (16 ppg)
Alex Len 2013 (12 ppg)
Dion Waiters 2012 (12.6 ppg)
2011 Derrick Williams (19.5 ppg)
2009 Blake Griffin (22.7 ppg)
2009 James Harden
2008 Russell Westbrook (12.7 ppg)
2006 Lamarcus Aldridge (15 ppg)
2005 Chris Paul (15 ppg)
2003 Dwayne Wade (20+ ppg)
2001 Jason Richardson (14.7 ppg)
2000 Stromile Swift (16 ppg)
2000 Mike Miller (14 ppg)
1999 Elton Brand (17.7 ppg)
1999 Baron Davis (16 ppg)
1998 Mike Bibby (18 ppg)
1997 Chauncey Billups (19 ppg)
1996 Iverson
1995 Joe Smith
1995 Antonio McDyess (13.9 ppg)
1995 Jerry Stackhouse (19.2 ppg)
1995 Rasheed Wallace (16.6 ppg)

Did you have to do this manually? Or is there a website somewhere that shows college stats as well as draft position?

[NatP4]

Gotta like the way this Australian plays. He's got an effortless style and a great feel for passing - and just 18. A 6'8 PG.

Watch on YouTube

Over the last week I have started to watch some film of Giddey. He’s an interesting prospect forsure.

Take one look at his game logs, his shooting and scoring efficiency has improved dramatically as the season has gone along. His last 3 games have been big time performances.

Last 10 games: 17-43 from 3 (39.5%) 43-107 overall (44%) 74 assists-30 turnovers 15 steals

[nate33]

Gotta like the way this Australian plays. He's got an effortless style and a great feel for passing - and just 18. A 6'8 PG.

Watch on YouTube

Over the last week I have started to watch some film of Giddey. He’s an interesting prospect forsure.

WizD would love this guy's handle. He has a low dribble that he maintains behind his leg while still going full speed. Interesting prospect.

[pcbothwel]

Yeah. He, along with Mann, Queta, Dosunmu, and Duarte were all guys I loved in the early 2nd and appear to be climbing unfortunately. Im sure my other favorites like Mathurin and Prkacin will do the same

[NatP4]

Not sure how to measure the NBL league, but Jordan McRae averaged 25-5-3 on 44/35% shooting back in 2015 at age 24. Patty Mills averaged 18&5 on 50/40/80 at age 23. Joe Ingles averaged 14-5-3 on 45/35% at age 21.

If you toss out his first 7 games in which he was playing less than 30 minutes a game, and look at the following 10 in which Giddey played heavy minutes, his numbers look outstanding as an 18 year old.

[NatP4]

How about this:

Lamelo Ball 12 games in the NBL at age 18:
19.6 points 8.7 rebounds 7.9 assists 1.8 steals 2.9 turnovers 37/25/72 shooting splits

Josh Giddey in 17 games in the NBL at age 18:
12.6 points 7.7 rebounds 7.5 assists 1.4 steals 3.3 turnovers 41/30/67 shooting splits

[nate33]

Not that many sophomores get taken in the top 5- Hunter has been the only one taken in the last 8 years between 2014 and 2020 - bolded ones that averaged less than 13 ppg.

DeAndre Hunter- 2019 (15 ppg)
Otto Porter 2013 (16 ppg)
Cody Zeller 2013 (16 ppg)
Alex Len 2013 (12 ppg)
Dion Waiters 2012 (12.6 ppg)
2011 Derrick Williams (19.5 ppg)
2009 Blake Griffin (22.7 ppg)
2009 James Harden
2008 Russell Westbrook (12.7 ppg)
2006 Lamarcus Aldridge (15 ppg)
2005 Chris Paul (15 ppg)
2003 Dwayne Wade (20+ ppg)
2001 Jason Richardson (14.7 ppg)
2000 Stromile Swift (16 ppg)
2000 Mike Miller (14 ppg)
1999 Elton Brand (17.7 ppg)
1999 Baron Davis (16 ppg)
1998 Mike Bibby (18 ppg)
1997 Chauncey Billups (19 ppg)
1996 Iverson
1995 Joe Smith
1995 Antonio McDyess (13.9 ppg)
1995 Jerry Stackhouse (19.2 ppg)
1995 Rasheed Wallace (16.6 ppg)

Did you have to do this manually? Or is there a website somewhere that shows college stats as well as draft position?

Nevermind. One can do it without too much difficulty at Tankathon.

For those just tuning in, this is a historical analysis to try and find comps for Franz Wagner. Wagner is an interesting prospect in that he's a jack of all trades "glue guy" and a good all around defender, but he scores just 12.8 points per game as a Sophomore. Is there a historical precedent for that kind of player succeeding in the NBA?

Here is the list of all non-Freshmen picked in the top 10 who averaged less than 13 points per game:
2004 Iguodola (9th - So. - 12.9 ppg)
2005 Deron Williams (3rd - Jr. - 12.5 ppg)
2005 Raymond Felton (5th - Jr. - 12.9 ppg)
2007 Joakim Noah (9th - Jr. - 12.0 ppg)
2008 Russell Westbrook (4th - So. - 12.7 ppg)
2012 Deon Waiters (4th - So. - 12.6 ppg)
2013 Alex Len (5th - So. - 11.6 ppg)
2014 Willie Cauley Stein (6th - Jr. - 8.9 ppg)

That's it. And outside of Iguodola, all of them were PG's or defensive centers. It appears that NBA scouts believe that players good enough for the NBA should at least be 2nd option scorers on their college team by the time they are sophomores, unless they are rim protecting bigs or pass-first PGs.

Out of curiosity, I went back to 2004 and looked at the entire first round for non-Freshman averaging less than 13 points, and picked out the names of guys who had some success. I ignored PGs (Rondo and Lowry) and true centers (Robin Lopez, Gorgui Dieng, Robert Williams). Here is the list.

Michael Carter Williams
Tony Snell
Andre Roberson
Rondae Hollis-Jefferson
OG Anunoby
Matisse Thybulle
Jordan Poole

The only guys that fit a mold anything like Franz Wagner (glue guy combo-forwards) are Rondae Hollis-Jefferson and OG Anunoby. And Anunoby is the only guy worth a top 8 pick.

Here is the list of guys who met the criteria and ended up being worthless in the NBA:

Darrell Arthur
Sean Williams
Renaldo Balkman
Sergio Rodriquez
Terrence Williams
Austin Daye
Cole Aldrich
Daniel Orton
Kendall Marshall
Terrence Jones
Fab Melo
Miles Plumlee
Festus Ezeli
Mitch McGarry
John Huestis
Justin Anderson
DJ Wilson
Jacob Evans
Chuma Okeke

I gotta admit, this analysis has me questioning drafting Wagner in the 6-8 range. The only non-freshman forwards drafted in the last 15 years who didn't score 13 points a game that were worth the pick were Andre Iguadola and OG Anunoby. And both guys are absolute freak athletes with insanely long arms. Wagner is a sound athlete, but not a freak.

[NatP4]

Such a useless post. Doesn’t factor in minutes played, shots attempted, level of competition, usage rate.


Wagner’s per36 scoring figures are right on par with guys like Otto Porter, Gordon Hayward, and Nic Batum (French league)

This might be the laziest “analysis” I have seen on this board.

[nate33]

Such a useless post. Doesn’t factor in minutes played, shots attempted, level of competition, usage rate.


Wagner’s per36 scoring figures are right on par with guys like Otto Porter, Gordon Hayward, and Nic Batum (French league)

This might be the laziest “analysis” I have seen on this board.

Just because you don't like an analysis doesn't make it lazy or useless. This analysis is a lot better than the "I like this guys so we should pick him" analysis that you do. At least I try to incorporate some amount of objectivity.

I intentionally went with per game numbers and not per minute numbers because good players should play a lot of minutes.

[NatP4]

Such a useless post. Doesn’t factor in minutes played, shots attempted, level of competition, usage rate.


Wagner’s per36 scoring figures are right on par with guys like Otto Porter, Gordon Hayward, and Nic Batum (French league)

This might be the laziest “analysis” I have seen on this board.

**** you.

Just because you don't like an analysis doesn't make it lazy or useless. This analysis is a lot better than the "I like this guys so we should pick him" analysis that you do. At least I try to incorporate some amount of objectivity.

I intentionally went with per game numbers and not per minute numbers because good players should play a lot of minutes.

I can’t think of a less useful analysis. Measuring points per game for players picked in the top 10 (ignoring other 50 picks) of the draft and ignoring age, usage rate, shots attempted, level of competition, team pace/scoring, team competency, and minutes played.

You claim to have no knowledge of the other players in the 5-12 range, so how would you know one way or the other if Wagner is a good pick in that range?

What do we get out of comparing PPG from a player like Cunningham and his 29.1 usage rate and 17 shot attempts per 40 on a poor team with no other NBA talent, that lost in the 2nd round of the tournament vs Franz Wagner and his 19.8 usage rate and 12 shot attempts per 40 on a loaded team with plenty of other NBA talent, that won 30 games and is competing for a national championship now?

[Illuminaire]

Randomly signing in to comment on this thread.

I do think Nat has a point here, Nate. College programs can have a wide variance of pace and style. For example, Michigan ranks 246th in pace for the 2020-21 season.

Also, you commented about how a player should be able to be the second option on their college team. Franz effectively is the second option. He scores 1.4 points less than the 'first' option and a meagre 0.3 fewer than the second highest scorer. He also gets the second most assists on the team. He's their secondary ball handler and neck-and-neck as their best scorer.

You may still be correct that he will never be an alpha dog scorer or star offensive player, but the analysis you're doing does seem to be overlooking meaningful details.

[doclinkin]

Such a useless post. Doesn’t factor in minutes played, shots attempted, level of competition, usage rate.


Wagner’s per36 scoring figures are right on par with guys like Otto Porter, Gordon Hayward, and Nic Batum (French league)

This might be the laziest “analysis” I have seen on this board.

Just because you don't like an analysis doesn't make it lazy or useless. This analysis is a lot better than the "I like this guys so we should pick him" analysis that you do. At least I try to incorporate some amount of objectivity.

I intentionally went with per game numbers and not per minute numbers because good players should play a lot of minutes.

Right, when I check per minute stats, I will sort by minimum 20 minutes, but you still get some outliers who have unusual stats as roleplayers who don't quite make it in the league. Wagner seems like he will find a role on a team. And his improving 3fg% suggests that he will work to extend his range and adjust to the next level. But it is a very rare circumstance indeed to find a 'star' glue guy.

Ultimately though: will he help your team win? Yeah, likely. He is so smart on Defense that he will make up for bad players around him and increase the team BBIQ on that end of the court.

[doclinkin]

Yeah. He, along with Mann, Queta, Dosunmu, and Duarte were all guys I loved in the early 2nd and appear to be climbing unfortunately. Im sure my other favorites like Mathurin and Prkacin will do the same

We still have no 2nd round pick, so it doesn't matter.

[nate33]

Randomly signing in to comment on this thread.

I do think Nat has a point here, Nate. College programs can have a wide variance of pace and style. For example, Michigan ranks 246th in pace for the 2020-21 season.

Also, you commented about how a player should be able to be the second option on their college team. Franz effectively is the second option. He scores 1.4 points less than the 'first' option and a meagre 0.3 fewer than the second highest scorer. He also gets the second most assists on the team. He's their secondary ball handler and neck-and-neck as their best scorer.

You may still be correct that he will never be an alpha dog scorer or star offensive player, but the analysis you're doing does seem to be overlooking meaningful details.

For the record, I'm not saying Wagner is a bad prospect or anything. Certainly, you should look at my analysis and try to put it in context. Maybe there's something unique to his circumstances that explains the low scoring output. All I'm saying is that there is very little historical precedent for Franz Wagner. That doesn't mean he won't be successful. But one should at least try to explain the anomaly before contemplating drafting him in the top 5.

Your point about pace is a very good one. As is the point about the egalitarian shot distribution by Michigan. I'm not opposed to contrary opinions. I don't like my analysis being called "useless" though.

I still think it's odd that no other player has fit this profile in 16 years.

[NatP4]

It isn’t “very little historical precedent for Franz Wagner”

It’s very little historical precedent for Franz Wagner being selected in the top 5 of the draft after his sophomore season production while disregarding age, usage rate, shots attempted, level of competition, team pace/scoring, team competency, and minutes played.

Which no one is claiming will happen...I am in favor of a trade down if Mobley&Suggs are gone. I bet Wagner goes 10-12ish

This gets into how the rest of the league(front offices, fanbases) evaluate players. Again, guys like Anthony Edwards get picked 1st overall in this league. I’m interested in how a player helps us win.

I’m curious as to how much “historical precedent” existed for what the Grizzlies organization has been doing.

[NatP4]

Do an analysis for how many 19 year olds average 3.4 assists to 1.4 turnovers on a 19.1 usage rate with a 6.3 OBPM and a 6.0 DBPM and also post a >60% TS with atleast 1.2 blocks and 1.5 steals.

Freshman/Sophomores since '08 with O and D BPM both greater than 5:
Zion Williamson
Anthony Davis
Otto Porter Jr.
Marcus Smart
Franz Wagner
Ethan Happ
Mikal Bridges
Tyreke Evans
Xavier Tillman
Karl-Anthony Towns

[nate33]

NatP4 brought up a couple of comps to Wagner, including Porter, Hayward and Batum. Here is how they stack up statistically:



I don't know if it's worth analyzing the Batum numbers because they're not from NCAA (and they're perhaps unreliable since he is 9.52 years old when drafted lol). But comparing Wagner to Porter and Hayward, he's very similar except for a significantly lower USG% leading to fewer points. Is that a red flag? Or is that due to the egalitarian nature of Michigan's offense? Whatever the case, the lower USG% should at least argue that his slightly more efficient TS% is due to him having the luxury of turning down more difficult shots.

Wagner is a way better passer than Hayward, and slightly better than Porter. He's a slightly worse rebounder. The stocks are a wash. Too bad the comparison doesn't show the numbers on a per possession basis.

One other potential red flag is Wagner's anemic FTA rate. Interestingly, Batum also has a low FTA rate. Maybe Wagner is essentially Batum with more rebounds?

[nate33]

Do an analysis for how many 19 year olds average 3.4 assists to 1.4 turnovers on a 19.1 usage rate with a 6.3 OBPM and a 6.0 DBPM and also post a >60% TS with atleast 1.2 blocks and 1.5 steals.

Freshman/Sophomores since '08 with O and D BPM both greater than 5:
Zion Williamson
Anthony Davis
Otto Porter Jr.
Marcus Smart
Franz Wagner
Ethan Happ
Mikal Bridges
Tyreke Evans
Xavier Tillman
Karl-Anthony Towns

I'm not sure if that's a pro or a con for drafting Wagner.

Wagner clearly isn't a generational #1 draft pick like Zion, Davis or KAT. Looking at those other guys, the only one worth a top 7 pick is Porter, and perhaps Bridges if he continues to improve.

[NatP4]

Do an analysis for how many 19 year olds average 3.4 assists to 1.4 turnovers on a 19.1 usage rate with a 6.3 OBPM and a 6.0 DBPM and also post a >60% TS with atleast 1.2 blocks and 1.5 steals.

Freshman/Sophomores since '08 with O and D BPM both greater than 5:
Zion Williamson
Anthony Davis
Otto Porter Jr.
Marcus Smart
Franz Wagner
Ethan Happ
Mikal Bridges
Tyreke Evans
Xavier Tillman
Karl-Anthony Towns

I'm not sure if that's a pro or a con for drafting Wagner.

Wagner clearly isn't a generational #1 draft pick like Zion, Davis or KAT. Looking at those other guys, the only one worth a top 7 pick is Porter, and perhaps Bridges if he continues to improve.

Mikal Bridges is another good comparison although he went pro after his junior season. His FTA rate was even lower than Wagner.

Remember, younger than all 3 of Porter, Hayward, and Bridges, with a significantly lower usage rate.

[nate33]

Mikal Bridges is another good comparison although he went pro after his junior season. His FTA rate was even lower than Wagner.

Remember, younger than all 3 of Porter, Hayward, and Bridges, with a significantly lower usage rate.

Bridges is a terrific one on one defender though. Wagner is good defensively, but is he THAT good?

In college, Bridges had an extremely high USG% of 27% - well above Porter and Hayward and way above Wagner. His efficiency was lower than all of those guys too. It's interesting that he went on to become a prototypical low usage 3&D forward after being such a primary scorer in college.