What exactly is the plan?

[dougthonus]

Age on Vuc is a real factor too.

Complete list of Centers in the history of the NBA that have scored over 20ppg at age 31 or older (Vuc next season):
Wilt
Kareem
Shaq
Hakeem
David Robinson

Centers historically do not age well. The window with Vuc shouldn't be estimated at being larger than the next 2.5 seasons IMO.

[Ice Man]

Come on guys, a 5% chance or less of being a top 4 team at some point in the next 4 years? That's half a lifetime in the NBA. We could potentially get there without anybody who is now on the roster. In truth, your odds strike me as rather conservative even for the next two years (that is, the remainder of Vuce's contract), because one big FA signing and we would potentially be there.

Now Orlando ... yeah. Those odds describe Orlando well, or any other team that scraps its best player(s) and choose to collect picks instead.

[coldfish]

There is no model that works in the NBA. I think that needs to be clear. If I had to put odds on how this will turn out (over the next 4 years):
40% Complete Failure. Either due to injury or bad chemistry, the team still isn't a playoff team and gives away a few #10 picks on the way to a blow up.
30% Playoff fodder. Team becomes one of those low end playoff teams that gets bounced easily every year. No playoff wins and miss a year.
25% Competitive playoff team. Win a few playoff rounds, maybe make an ECF.
3% Contender. One of the top 4 teams in the NBA talked about as a possible winner.
2% Win a title

I think the odds of "competitive playoff team" are considerably less than you, though also think complete failure is probably less than you too.

I'd say something like:
25% complete failure (no playoff appearances)
50% playoff fodder (no playoff wins, make playoffs at least 2 of next 3 years including this one)
20% quasi competitive - do not get out of the 2nd round, but make the 2nd round once or twice
~4% make an ECF
less than 1% be contender (top 4 team in the league)

I know I differ with you on the likelihood that the Bulls can add another good player. IMO, they have enough assets to get a 3rd good player and AK seems to have the cajones to pull the trigger. I look at what just happened as a step, not the end product. AK seems to look at it the same way based on his presser.

My odds breakdown was based on this "plan" and the plan clearly is to continue to add players.

[nomorezorro]

We're like the 2007 Bulls who traded away Tyson Chandler and signed Ben Wallace. Our ceiling is losing in the 2nd round, unless some star decides he really wants to play with Lavine and Vuc in Chicago.

one thing about ben wallace on the bulls is that he sucked, and one thing about the 2007 bulls is that they didn't have anyone who's as good as zach lavine is right now

i'm getting really good at pointing out the difference between things

[Leslie Forman]

Where I actually disagree with you is tanking. The odds of tanking turning into anything worth watching are far, far worse. The response from the tankers is that the team just didn't tank hard or long enough because to some people the draft lottery is like a drug where they just need one more hit. I've gone on many times how tanking is a trap and there are real mechanisms in place, from the CBA to development, that make it so.

Through all the tanking debates that have been here over the years, I've noticed that pretty much all the posts here saying that tanking is worthless, including yours, always focus on the low odds that you're gonna get the #1 pick, or draft a superstar, out of it. Always. Those are the only points you guys always bring up.

But that's not the sole point of tanking, and never has been. The never tank side ignores that draft picks and young prospects (with serious heat, of course, not your Lauris and Wendells) are the currency of choice in this league. Only actual superstar players are worth more. Tanking is how you get the Brandon Ingram and Lonzo Ball you need to get AD.

Hell, not so long ago, Lauri/Wendell did actually have a lot of heat on them and were worth a ton as trade chips. I myself here got totally flamed here for suggesting they should have been traded for AD back when he was on the block.

Well, this franchise has just lost two huge missiles in their warchest by dumping multiple picks for Vucevic, and really only have Pat now. Literally any other franchise could basically match or surpass a Bulls trade offer for a superstar now unless Pat suddenly goes parabolic on his development next year.

Like I said, when you talk about your GSWs and Torontos, even they needed to hit on those later picks to actually get to contender status, and two of those are gone now, and there really aren't any players on this roster (that you're willing to trade) who will get any back in return.

This was sort of like trading for Jrue Holiday…but instead of contending for a title, you're trying to fight for an eighth seed.

Honestly I would totally understand if anti-tankers just said "yeah I just wanna see an effort to win, that's all." Saying that moves like this are actually totally improving future title odds? I don't buy that at all, and it's just utter hypocrisy after how much everyone wanted Jimmy gone and were refusing to trade Lauri and Wendell when they actually had high trade value, which anyone with a critical eye could have seen a mile away was never going to get higher.

[DuckIII]

One thing I do agree with though is that barring a trade for a third star, the ceiling of AK’s deals are heavily reliant on Patrick Lee Williams becoming the third star.

He sounds like a folk singer.

I don't know why, but envision Gordon Lightfoot when I see Patrick Lee Williams.

Scorn and ridicule were heaped upon my attempt to abbreviate his name, so I have settled on the opposite extreme.

[MrSparkle]

Age on Vuc is a real factor too.

Complete list of Centers in the history of the NBA that have scored over 20ppg at age 31 or older (Vuc next season):
Wilt
Kareem
Shaq
Hakeem
David Robinson

Centers historically do not age well. The window with Vuc shouldn't be estimated at being larger than the next 2.5 seasons IMO.

I’m positive Vuc will immediately drop to a 18 ppg average or so. With Thad and Theis, his minutes probably drop so he can be more efficient.

I don’t think we got him to be a #1 scoring option like the HOFs above. He’s gonna be passing the ball and spacing the floor.

Gasols, Dirk, Garnett, Duncan and other stretch/pass bigs continued positive offensive impact well into their 30s.

I think the long-term fear with Vuc is his D falling from serviceable to really flat, while offense declines, ala Pau. But next 2 years should be nice.

[nomorezorro]

Honestly I would totally understand if anti-tankers just said "yeah I just wanna see an effort to win, that's all." Saying that moves like this are actually totally improving future title odds? I don't buy that at all, and it's just utter hypocrisy after how much everyone wanted Jimmy gone and were refusing to trade Lauri and Wendell when they actually had high trade value, which anyone with a critical eye could have seen a mile away was never going to get higher.

1. i want to watch a good basketball team, it's true
2. i think it's fair to argue this isn't maximizing our future title odds, but i don't think this is meaningfully hurting our future title odds. most picks suck, most teams don't win a championship, fandom is futility if you're just lusting for a ring and nothing else. enjoy the journey baby
3. fair dues to anyone who saw the limits in lauri's game early on, but at what point should we have "sold high" on wendell? halfway into his rookie year, before he got hurt and missed half the season? two months into his sophomore year, before he got hurt and missed half the season? this past offseason, when he was a player of unclear value who had played 87 games in two seasons? (also, it seems more or less meaningless to discuss the failure to trade lauri/wendell when they were more valuable pieces, because the only people who could have done that are no longer running the chicago bulls.)
4. it is complete revisionist history to say that "everyone wanted jimmy gone." jimmy butler was a very popular player and i was very upset when they traded him for what i perceived to be poor return, and i don't think that was an uncommon opinion even if there were many people eager to move on. (it is interesting to note that a not-super-well-regarded player who we acquired in that trade is now much more valuable than any lotto pick we've had in the past four seasons)

[Leslie Forman]

Age on Vuc is a real factor too.

Complete list of Centers in the history of the NBA that have scored over 20ppg at age 31 or older (Vuc next season):
Wilt
Kareem
Shaq
Hakeem
David Robinson

Centers historically do not age well. The window with Vuc shouldn't be estimated at being larger than the next 2.5 seasons IMO.

Honestly, I'm less worried about the offense, which is overrated anyways (he has never been very efficient, as he doesn't draw fouls), but really worried about the defense.

He's already a bad defensive center at 30. Historically, that is a terrible, terrible sign for longevity. I don't see how he's going to do any better than Wendell or Lauri in these drop back schemes Donovan insists on, and he is going to bring back memories of Pau Gasol when trying to play a pick-n-roll tight.

[HomoSapien]

Remember when you first heard the rumor about the Celtics trading a lotto pick for an older Ray Allen? It initially looked like garbage. Neither Pierce or Allen were viewed as players you could bank on a championship with. Then they traded for KG and it all made sense and worked. We’re not an exact comparison, but we have $30m in expiring contracts, Pat Williams, Coby White, and a pick to dangle for the next star that becomes available.

[nomorezorro]

we'd have to acquire another 2022 or 2023 pick to trade a pick that conveys before 2025, right?

i wonder if you could still move thad for a first this offseason if you needed to

[coldfish]

[

Honestly I would totally understand if anti-tankers just said "yeah I just wanna see an effort to win, that's all." Saying that moves like this are actually totally improving future title odds? I don't buy that at all, and it's just utter hypocrisy after how much everyone wanted Jimmy gone and were refusing to trade Lauri and Wendell when they actually had high trade value, which anyone with a critical eye could have seen a mile away was never going to get higher.

Tanking just doesn't work. It has a horrific track record and when it does work, its invariably a special story that doesn't apply to the Bulls. For example, if there was a top 5 player out there who was from Chicago and was feeding the FO info that he would like to play at home (like Lebron), then tank away. If you are LA or Miami and you can just pitch the environment to whichever max contract player wants the money, then go for it.

For all of the other teams that have got intentionally bad, its a long process that usually peters out before it succeeds. The other side of your AD example was the fact that NO couldn't put a team around AD and he eventually got tired of it.

Again, there are legitimate operational reasons why tanking has such a terrible success rate. Good players don't want to go to a 20-62 Minnesota team, regardless of how many Ball's they have drafted. If you do draft a great player, it takes a few years to develop him and then you have a short window before he threatens to leave via UFA.

The Bulls have now tanked twice in the past 20 years and both efforts have been unmitigated failures. This joins the list of countless other teams that got bad and were unable to engineer some snap back turnaround. The teams that have got out, did it the hard way and slowly crawled out by getting mediocre, then good like Toronto did or Denver, Milwaukee or Utah have done. Tankers are never willing to go through that process because the mediocre phase is so painful to them.

[beeshma]

So…whaddya really got besides a gazillion far future picks literally any other franchise can offer? Pat. That's it. Pat is basically everything at least the next couple years probably hinges on.

So is this it? Is this really the plan? Basically just pray Pat pans out and is either the missing superstar himself, or has enough trade value to be the trade centerpiece for one?

#1 - I wonder if they are willing to pay Zach the max because 1) the cap will increase, and 2) perhaps they know the league is negotiating so that all that new money won't automatically flow to old contracts. So if Zach gets 40 million but the cap swells by 20 million each year for 4 years then FO knows they can keep spending.

#2 - Lauri, Thad, Sato, Coby are all still potential trade chips. They all could easily net us something including getting back a 1st round pick.

[WindyCityBorn]

Age on Vuc is a real factor too.

Complete list of Centers in the history of the NBA that have scored over 20ppg at age 31 or older (Vuc next season):
Wilt
Kareem
Shaq
Hakeem
David Robinson

Centers historically do not age well. The window with Vuc shouldn't be estimated at being larger than the next 2.5 seasons IMO.

If he is giving us an efficient 18/10 3 years from now that is great as long as we have found another star to supplant him as the second option by then. Which I think AK has every intention of doing. If we are winning with Vuc as we should it will happen. This move wasn’t to make Vuc a long term cornerstone. It was give Zach who is entering his prime a legit all-star running mate and to make the Bulls winners again and a place stars want to play.

Also Vuc offensive game does not rely on athleticism at all so I’m not worried about some steep decline there.

[dougthonus]

I know I differ with you on the likelihood that the Bulls can add another good player. IMO, they have enough assets to get a 3rd good player and AK seems to have the cajones to pull the trigger. I look at what just happened as a step, not the end product. AK seems to look at it the same way based on his presser.

My odds breakdown was based on this "plan" and the plan clearly is to continue to add players.

Not sure what AK is going to get a 3rd player, one that is better than Vuc and Lavine, with. It appears it's rainbows, cocaine, and hookers, because it isn't draft picks, cap room, or trade assets. We don't have any of those things you usually use to get good players.

If he pulls a miracle out of his hat, then I will applaud said miracle, and I agree with you that he'll be aggressive in the attempt. All that's left next year is Pat Williams, Coby White, and expiring deals to make a move which will be required to be made within the next 1 year and have to work basically immediately. I think the odds of that are pretty low, but again, I hope I am proven wrong.

[dougthonus]

I’m positive Vuc will immediately drop to a 18 ppg average or so. With Thad and Theis, his minutes probably drop so he can be more efficient.

I don’t think we got him to be a #1 scoring option like the HOFs above. He’s gonna be passing the ball and spacing the floor.

Gasols, Dirk, Garnett, Duncan and other stretch/pass bigs continued positive offensive impact well into their 30s.

I think the long-term fear with Vuc is his D falling from serviceable to really flat, while offense declines, ala Pau. But next 2 years should be nice.

All the players you named that has positive impact in their 30s were radically better than Vuc in their 20s IMO.

[coldfish]

I know I differ with you on the likelihood that the Bulls can add another good player. IMO, they have enough assets to get a 3rd good player and AK seems to have the cajones to pull the trigger. I look at what just happened as a step, not the end product. AK seems to look at it the same way based on his presser.

My odds breakdown was based on this "plan" and the plan clearly is to continue to add players.

Not sure what AK is going to get a 3rd player, one that is better than Vuc and Lavine, with. It appears it's rainbows, cocaine, and hookers, because it isn't draft picks, cap room, or trade assets. We don't have any of those things you usually use to get good players.

If he pulls a miracle out of his hat, then I will applaud said miracle, and I agree with you that he'll be aggressive in the attempt.

That's a strawman. I never said a player better than Vuc and Lavine.

The Bulls have the following assets:
- $20-25m in capspace if they want it
- Pat
- Coby (lol)
- They could choose to keep Thad and Sato and then take on salary with Aminu's contract adding up to $35m in expiring.
- Sign and trade Lauri
- Pick swaps and 2025 pick

IMO, there is a reasonable chance that they could turn that group of stuff into a 17-19 PER type player. I know that a GM actually making trades to fill out a team feels like a miracle for Bulls fans and makes you want to celebrate with hookers and cocaine (like I am at this very minute) but its really not that hard.

[dougthonus]

The Bulls have now tanked twice in the past 20 years and both efforts have been unmitigated failures. This joins the list of countless other teams that got bad and were unable to engineer some snap back turnaround. The teams that have got out, did it the hard way and slowly crawled out by getting mediocre, then good like Toronto did or Denver, Milwaukee or Utah have done. Tankers are never willing to go through that process because the mediocre phase is so painful to them.

Almost every team that went from really bad to really good did so buy one of two methods:
Free agents deciding they wanted to play there.
Getting players in the draft.

The 1st of those things was never likely due to the lack of quality FAs coming up and our lack of cap room to get two anyway and other factors you described.

The 2nd is what people associate with tanking, but tons of these teams get really good by drafting players whom are superstars with picks that are later. Not having picks means the Bulls can't do that either, even if we didn't tank and our picks were in the 10-20 range, teams whom became great drafted guys like Giannis, Kawhi, Klay, Draymond, etc from those later selections.

There are very few teams that trade themselves into being great. I'm trying to think if there is another example off the top of my head other than the Houston Rockets, but it's pretty rare. The slow build almost always is a slow build based on high draft quality. Losing two draft picks makes it go from unlikely to extraordinarily unlikely.

Granted, the scenario many have outlined of trading Williams and/or Coby + expirings + way far out picks for someone is now your best bet, but given that your first two stars are both awful defensive players and note super elite offensive ones, you really need to get a top 5 guy to give this team a legitimate chance, and the package above is probably too small for that type of guy even if he tries to force his way here (unless Pat grows exponentially over the next year).

[MGB8]

Age on Vuc is a real factor too.

Complete list of Centers in the history of the NBA that have scored over 20ppg at age 31 or older (Vuc next season):
Wilt
Kareem
Shaq
Hakeem
David Robinson

Centers historically do not age well. The window with Vuc shouldn't be estimated at being larger than the next 2.5 seasons IMO.

You missed a bunch.

Ewing, for 1.
Aldridge at C for the Spurs.
Elvin Hayes (listed as the PF despite being bigger and playing the 5 next to Unseld.

Then consider stat inflation in today’s no defense era...

And given that today’s centers are really just the power forwards of old... Dirk, McHale, Pettit, Malone... Dirk played a lot of 5 post 30, too.

[MrSparkle]

I’m positive Vuc will immediately drop to a 18 ppg average or so. With Thad and Theis, his minutes probably drop so he can be more efficient.

I don’t think we got him to be a #1 scoring option like the HOFs above. He’s gonna be passing the ball and spacing the floor.

Gasols, Dirk, Garnett, Duncan and other stretch/pass bigs continued positive offensive impact well into their 30s.

I think the long-term fear with Vuc is his D falling from serviceable to really flat, while offense declines, ala Pau. But next 2 years should be nice.

All the players you named that has positive impact in their 30s were radically better than Vuc in their 20s IMO.

No disagreement there. We didn't add a top-10 player here. I think Vuc is somewhere near the back of top-30. He is a fringe star. And definitely, it's a 2-year window. But my point was his productivity should stretch well beyond that. Probably somewhere comparable to Millsap in impact. Certainly going to need younger guys to step up before that contract ends.