What exactly is the plan?

[Leslie Forman]

The Bulls have now tanked twice in the past 20 years and both efforts have been unmitigated failures.

1. Only Krause actually tanked, and that was really only something he didn't try to do, but rather fell into doing because he failed so hard in free agency.
2. As for the "second" time, re-signing Mirotic, holding onto Robin Lopez, signing Young and Satoransky, trading for Otto Porter - this is obviously not truly tanking, at least not anything resembling a good plan with which to do it.

But it doesn't really matter, bringing up the Bulls' past failures at "tanking," however you classify it, is an incredibly disingenuous argument when signing/trading for superstars is exactly what they have been trying to do forever, and have failed at EVERY SINGLE TIME. The Kobe trade never happened. The KG trade never happened. The TMac signing never happened. The LeBron signing never happened. The Wade signing never happened. Even fake "superstars" like Amare or Melo never ended up here.

You wanna talk trades/signings?

Trading for or signing a superstar: 0%

That's how the Bulls have done there.

B-listers like Ben Wallace/Carlos Boozer/old ass Pau Gasol are all that's ever ended up here. And they just traded away a couple draft picks to basically get another one.

Meanwhile, the four best players of our lifetimes that ever played for the Bulls?

Michael Jordan
Scottie Pippen
Derrick Rose
Jimmy Butler

How did the team pick these guys up, again?

This isn't a tank or not thing. This is a question of whether or not Nikola Vucevic is the type of player that was worth depleting your near future warchest so much for. You aren't just losing bullets in your chamber to shoot your shot at a superstar with, you are depleting your odds of hitting on a lower draft pick or two (or three, in GSW's case), which is absolutely vital to being a contender without tanking, because you just dumped two of them for a 30-year-old who's likely only declining from here on out.

[nomorezorro]

i think years of uninspiring management have convinced people that you have to Pick A Lane and that's it, you've chosen the direction of your team for the next five years and you can't make moves that run counter to that. if there's a prospect the front office likes in the mid-to-late first round, we can still find a way to move players for picks and get back into the draft. there are ways to replenish the stock of Assets - like if we sign a player in free agency and he improves his value here, or if we take on salary for an expiring contract.

the question the bulls answered with this trade is that we are prioritizing building around zach and winning in the immediate term, yes. but that doesn't mean you completely abandon long-term team building. maybe patrick williams breaks out and we trade vucevic a year into his next contract for a piece that's more aligned with our new timeline. maybe a guy you take a flier on like troy brown turns into a real piece, maybe one of a million different things happen. there are a lot of ways to put together a team!

[CobyWhite0]

I know I differ with you on the likelihood that the Bulls can add another good player. IMO, they have enough assets to get a 3rd good player and AK seems to have the cajones to pull the trigger. I look at what just happened as a step, not the end product. AK seems to look at it the same way based on his presser.

My odds breakdown was based on this "plan" and the plan clearly is to continue to add players.

Not sure what AK is going to get a 3rd player, one that is better than Vuc and Lavine, with. It appears it's rainbows, cocaine, and hookers, because it isn't draft picks, cap room, or trade assets. We don't have any of those things you usually use to get good players.

If he pulls a miracle out of his hat, then I will applaud said miracle, and I agree with you that he'll be aggressive in the attempt.

That's a strawman. I never said a player better than Vuc and Lavine.

The Bulls have the following assets:
- $20-25m in capspace if they want it
- Pat
- Coby (lol)
- They could choose to keep Thad and Sato and then take on salary with Aminu's contract adding up to $35m in expiring.
- Sign and trade Lauri
- Pick swaps and 2025 pick

IMO, there is a reasonable chance that they could turn that group of stuff into a 17-19 PER type player. I know that a GM actually making trades to fill out a team feels like a miracle for Bulls fans and makes you want to celebrate with hookers and cocaine (like I am at this very minute) but its really not that hard.

It's not only a strawman, it's 100% not true.

We can EASILY clear Maximum Cap Space next summer, and get within $100k of having Maximum Cap Space in the summer of 2022, without any help from any other team:

I'm going to post the actual, factual numbers one more time, because I've posted them in multiple threads and people just keep ignoring them. (On a side note, maybe we can get a sticky thread with the actual, factual information?)

Summer 2021:

If we renounce all of our free agents, and waive and stretch Thadgic, Sato and Aminu

Vuc $24,000,000
Zach $19,500,000
Mr. Patrick Williams $7,422,000
Coby $5,837,760
Brown $5,170,564
TY/TS/A-FA $7,061,267
Cap holds $6,476,806

TOTAL $75,468,397

Cap Room: $36,945,603

Max Salary 30% - $33,724,200

Summer 2022:


Zach cap hold $29,250,000
Vuc $22,000,000
Mr. Patrick Williams $7,775,400
Coby $7,413,955
TY/TS/A-FA $7,061,267
Cap Holds $7,624,104

TOTAL $81,124,726

Cap Room: $34,661,274

Max Salary 30% - $34,735,800

Or we could keep our 1st-round pick, even if we sneak into the playoffs next season as the #8 seed and wind up picking 15th, we can add that salary and still have $32,129,127 in cap space.

Zach cap hold $29,250,000
Vuc $22,000,000
Mr. Patrick Williams $7,775,400
Coby $7,413,955
TY/TS/A-FA $7,061,267
Cap Holds $7,624,104

TOTAL $81,124,726

Cap Room: $34,661,274

Max Salary 30% - $34,735,800

Or we could keep our 1st-round pick, even if we sneak into the playoffs next season as the #8 seed and wind up picking 15th, we can add that salary and still have $32,129,127 in cap space.

http://www.shamsports.com/capulator?id=1402856331605e7ac286ed4672803367

These are simple, verifiable FACTS, that anyone with a working knowledge of the CBA and Salary Cap can easily understand - so why do people keep ignoring them?

One can argue that nobody will want to come take our cap space, but saying that we can't clear max cap space now is disingenuous and blatantly false.

[dougthonus]

That's a strawman. I never said a player better than Vuc and Lavine.

You didn't. I did. If this team is going to rise to legit contender status, it will need a player better than those two.

The Bulls have the following assets:
- $20-25m in capspace if they want it
- Pat
- Coby (lol)
- They could choose to keep Thad and Sato and then take on salary with Aminu's contract adding up to $35m in expiring.
- Sign and trade Lauri
- Pick swaps and 2025 pick

Can't trade the 2025 pick, you have to go out to 2026, because the 2023 might not convey to 2024, and 2025 is then off the table.

The cap room and the expirings are an either or situation. Thad/Sato are really useful players on this team, and the odds of improving in FA by losing both and bringing in 25M of new salary strike me as very low. It isn't a good FA year, and those two are probably both on fair deals, so spending less money to get another player probably won't help you short term, maybe it would help more long term if Thad degrades and isn't someone you want to keep past next year (likely true), and the new player is then better in 2 years than what you'd have by keeping Thad/Sato, but you are still overall likely worse next year.

IMO, there is a reasonable chance that they could turn that group of stuff into a 17-19 PER type player. I know that a GM actually making trades to fill out a team feels like a miracle for Bulls fans and makes you want to celebrate with hookers and cocaine (like I am at this very minute) but its really not that hard.

Yeah, I think they could turn that into a 17-19 PER player, and I don't think said player would move the needle much on the Bulls becoming a better team. They're more than that type of player away, but I agree, they could get an above average starting caliber player with those assets.

I think the Bulls are much further away than "filling out the team". They are a star talent away from being more than a low 40s win team I believe, though again, I hope they prove me wrong.

[dougthonus]

You missed a bunch.

Ewing, for 1.
Aldridge at C for the Spurs.
Elvin Hayes (listed as the PF despite being bigger and playing the 5 next to Unseld.

Then consider stat inflation in today’s no defense era...

And given that today’s centers are really just the power forwards of old... Dirk, McHale, Pettit, Malone... Dirk played a lot of 5 post 30, too.

Just went to basketball reference, looked up Cs that scored more than 20 per game after 31, and that was the list. Naming a bunch of PFs that definitely aren't Cs really isn't a C though. Vucevic isn't a PF in any era. He's a true center. There's no way he'd ever play PF.

The difference is meaningful, because part of the reason these guys wear down is playing C is physically way more demanding than PF and takes a much larger physical toll on the body. The guys are also just much bigger physically, especially weight wise, and that takes a much larger toll on the knees/back.

So while for some guys, same Tim Duncan, whom is absolutely center sized but played PF, I'd agree you could maybe add them to the list. A lot of those other guys are like 40 lbs lighter than Vuc and aren't banging constantly in the paint in the same way (though obviously PF of old was a more physical position than it is today).

[dougthonus]

Not sure what AK is going to get a 3rd player, one that is better than Vuc and Lavine, with. It appears it's rainbows, cocaine, and hookers, because it isn't draft picks, cap room, or trade assets. We don't have any of those things you usually use to get good players.

If he pulls a miracle out of his hat, then I will applaud said miracle, and I agree with you that he'll be aggressive in the attempt.

That's a strawman. I never said a player better than Vuc and Lavine.

The Bulls have the following assets:
- $20-25m in capspace if they want it
- Pat
- Coby (lol)
- They could choose to keep Thad and Sato and then take on salary with Aminu's contract adding up to $35m in expiring.
- Sign and trade Lauri
- Pick swaps and 2025 pick

IMO, there is a reasonable chance that they could turn that group of stuff into a 17-19 PER type player. I know that a GM actually making trades to fill out a team feels like a miracle for Bulls fans and makes you want to celebrate with hookers and cocaine (like I am at this very minute) but its really not that hard.

It's not only a strawman, it's 100% not true.

We can EASILY clear Maximum Cap Space next summer, and get within $100k of having Maximum Cap Space in the summer of 2022, without any help from any other team:

I'm going to post the actual, factual numbers one more time, because I've posted them in multiple threads and people just keep ignoring them. (On a side note, maybe we can get a sticky thread with the actual, factual information?)

Summer 2021:

If we renounce all of our free agents, and waive and stretch Thadgic, Sato and Aminu

Vuc $24,000,000
Zach $19,500,000
Mr. Patrick Williams $7,422,000
Coby $5,837,760
Brown $5,170,564
TY/TS/A-FA $7,061,267
Cap holds $6,476,806

TOTAL $75,468,397

Cap Room: $36,945,603

Max Salary 30% - $33,724,200

Summer 2022:


Zach cap hold $29,250,000
Vuc $22,000,000
Mr. Patrick Williams $7,775,400
Coby $7,413,955
TY/TS/A-FA $7,061,267
Cap Holds $7,624,104

TOTAL $81,124,726

Cap Room: $34,661,274

Max Salary 30% - $34,735,800

Or we could keep our 1st-round pick, even if we sneak into the playoffs next season as the #8 seed and wind up picking 15th, we can add that salary and still have $32,129,127 in cap space.

Zach cap hold $29,250,000
Vuc $22,000,000
Mr. Patrick Williams $7,775,400
Coby $7,413,955
TY/TS/A-FA $7,061,267
Cap Holds $7,624,104

TOTAL $81,124,726

Cap Room: $34,661,274

Max Salary 30% - $34,735,800

Or we could keep our 1st-round pick, even if we sneak into the playoffs next season as the #8 seed and wind up picking 15th, we can add that salary and still have $32,129,127 in cap space.

http://www.shamsports.com/capulator?id=1402856331605e7ac286ed4672803367

These are simple, verifiable FACTS, that anyone with a working knowledge of the CBA and Salary Cap can easily understand - so why do people keep ignoring them?

One can argue that nobody will want to come take our cap space, but saying that we can't clear max cap space now is disingenuous and blatantly false.

Will need to look at the numbers, but you are right in that I probably overestimated how much into the cap we were.

[JohnnyTapwater]

We have 2 all stars.

That's crazy to say that.

[CobyWhite0]

- Pick swaps and 2025 pick

Can't trade the 2025 pick, you have to go out to 2026, because the 2023 might not convey to 2024, and 2025 is then off the table[/quote]

Really? Come on man, you know darn good and well that trades are made all the time with conditions exactly like "if the Bulls' 2023 pick obligation to the Magic doesn't convey until 2024, the (insert team name) will receive the Bulls' pick in 2026."

I won't insult you by giving examples, because I'm 99.9999% positive that you know I'm right.

Using your statement, we couldn't have traded our 2023 pick yesterday, because our 2021 pick might not go to Orlando this summer.

[dougthonus]

Really? Come on man, you know darn good and well that trades are made all the time with conditions exactly like "if the Bulls' 2023 pick obligation to the Magic doesn't convey until 2024, the (insert team name) will receive the Bulls' pick in 2026."

I won't insult you by giving examples, because I'm 99.9999% positive that you know I'm right.

I appreciate you telling me you won't insult me, but just being incredibly condescending which no one would possibly view as insulting

At any rate, fair enough, I hadn't considered it and wasn't trying to fool anyone, but yes now that you mention it, I agree that's correct. You should be able to conditionally trade the 2025 pick, and the protection on the 2023 pick is light enough that our pick would most likely convey in 2025.

[coldfish]

That's a strawman. I never said a player better than Vuc and Lavine.

You didn't. I did. If this team is going to rise to legit contender status, it will need a player better than those two.

That's your opinion and if you look before, I said that is 95% chance that its true. There are multiple options to fill out that 5%:
- You get lucky with some combination of pick ups, Lauri and Pat and build some type of medley team.
- Lavine and/or Vuc become better players than they are now

And also, you could just find a way to trade Lavine or Vuc for that guy.

I think the Bulls are much further away than "filling out the team". They are a star talent away from being more than a low 40s win team I believe, though again, I hope they prove me wrong.

I'm basing a lot of my opinions in this thread around the idea that the team as it stands now is already better than that. I'm visualizing Vuc going crazy in that hub center role. We shall see though.

[CobyWhite0]

Really? Come on man, you know darn good and well that trades are made all the time with conditions exactly like "if the Bulls' 2023 pick obligation to the Magic doesn't convey until 2024, the (insert team name) will receive the Bulls' pick in 2026."

I won't insult you by giving examples, because I'm 99.9999% positive that you know I'm right.

I appreciate you telling me you won't insult me, but just being incredibly condescending which no one would possibly view as insulting

At any rate, fair enough, I hadn't considered it and wasn't trying to fool anyone, but yes now that you mention it, I agree that's correct. You should be able to conditionally trade the 2025 pick, and the protection on the 2023 pick is light enough that our pick would most likely convey in 2025.

LOL, damn I'm truly sorry, I didn't mean to be condescending at all. It was meant to be a compliment to your knowledge of the CBA and the Salary Cap. I started reading this board about a year ago (it was early in the lockdown), and my natural instinct is to assume the moderators of a forum are the most well-informed. And it's true, but among the mods, I respect your knowledge and intelligence more than most (no offense to the other moderators lol).

Again I'm sorry, and I certainly didn't think you were trying to fool anyone. I joined the board for intelligent conversation, of course after a few years on Reddit, it wasn't a high standard to beat of course. I understand if people don't think yesterday's moves were all that great, I just like to discuss things factually and intelligently.

Which is why my "foe" list is so large

[Leslie Forman]

[The Force.]

I agree, in principle, with the OP but there's another scenario to consider:

The Bulls flame out of the playoffs in 2022/2023 and AKME decides to blow it up and trade LaVine. He'll only be 28 and in his prime. Im assuming playing with Vuc will only bolster his already impressive stats. Surely we can extract considerable value from a player of his caliber.

Go into 2023 in full rebuild mode with several picks and at least one promising young player.

Sent from my SM-G960U using RealGM mobile app

[Leslie Forman]

That's a strawman. I never said a player better than Vuc and Lavine.

You didn't. I did. If this team is going to rise to legit contender status, it will need a player better than those two.

That's your opinion and if you look before, I said that is 95% chance that its true. There are multiple options to fill out that 5%:
- You get lucky with some combination of pick ups, Lauri and Pat and build some type of medley team.
- Lavine and/or Vuc become better players than they are now

This is ultimately my issue. I think that's exactly what the "plan" is.

And it's not really a plan. It's throwing darts at random B-list/C-list guys and praying for good luck. It's not that different from signing Ben Wallace or Pau Gasol, or trading for Otto Porter.

At the high end, it's Indiana. At the low end, it's, well, Orlando.

The thing is, if you do this, there is a strategy at outplaying your talent level and increasing your overachieving potential - become a goddamn defensive juggernaut. Become the '04 Pistons, basically. The Knicks are basically taking this approach with Thibs now.

How is that supposed to happen with Zach LaVine and Nikola Vucevic on your team?

[Rowland Garrett]

Really? Come on man, you know darn good and well that trades are made all the time with conditions exactly like "if the Bulls' 2023 pick obligation to the Magic doesn't convey until 2024, the (insert team name) will receive the Bulls' pick in 2026."

I won't insult you by giving examples, because I'm 99.9999% positive that you know I'm right.

I appreciate you telling me you won't insult me, but just being incredibly condescending which no one would possibly view as insulting

At any rate, fair enough, I hadn't considered it and wasn't trying to fool anyone, but yes now that you mention it, I agree that's correct. You should be able to conditionally trade the 2025 pick, and the protection on the 2023 pick is light enough that our pick would most likely convey in 2025.

I must say this, (not jumping into this conversation as it is way over my head.) but I have read similar comments from you Mr. dougthonus. Instead of trading insults, you handle this with aplomb and humility. Kudos to you good sir.

[dougthonus]

That's your opinion and if you look before, I said that is 95% chance that its true. There are multiple options to fill out that 5%:
- You get lucky with some combination of pick ups, Lauri and Pat and build some type of medley team.
- Lavine and/or Vuc become better players than they are now

And also, you could just find a way to trade Lavine or Vuc for that guy.

It's my opinion that to get into that 5% chance you need a player better than those guys. Even if everyone really develops into really strong role players, I think you're well short with what we have and what we can trade for. I think you really need a miracle, and not a 5% miracle, but a less than 1% miracle.

I think the Bulls are much further away than "filling out the team". They are a star talent away from being more than a low 40s win team I believe, though again, I hope they prove me wrong.

I'm basing a lot of my opinions in this thread around the idea that the team as it stands now is already better than that. I'm visualizing Vuc going crazy in that hub center role. We shall see though.

I think people have vastly overrated Vucevic here. He's a good player, but he is a fringe all-star player. He's only moderately efficient and he's very poor defensively. He's also 30, and those statements I just made describe him in his all-time best season ever. Expecting improvement at his age and total minutes, especially at the center position, just strikes me as extraordinarily unlikely.

I do think we are better, we were a mid 30s team, now we're a low 40s team. That's pretty solid improvement, I just think you sold the farm to be the Orlando Magic and in 2 years when Vuc is considerably worse than he is today and you have no assets, you're going to sit back and wonder what the hell you were doing.

I remember you were on the trade for Vuc bandwagon long before the draft as an obtainable star, and I don't remember what you said we should give up for him, but I thought the reaction on the thread was pretty 'meh' about the idea. It is interesting how many people seemed to have flipped their opinion (obviously not you) after it actually happened. I thought people were even 'meh' on the idea with you offering to send out less than we did (but I don't remember what your offer was). At the time, I remember thinking it was pretty reasonable.

At any rate, I don't hate what Chicago did. I think the most likely scenario is we are far worse in five years for moves we made today and that the outcome of the next two to three years where we will be better will be first round exits that aren't really exciting long term. At the same time, weird things happen. Maybe Coby turns into a flamethrower next year. Maybe Lauri thrives next to Vuc who can really pass. Maybe we find an incredible steal with a 2nd rounder. Maybe we find two Temple-like steals in the FA next year. Maybe we have a fluke injury that is short term and doesn't affect next season but lands us in the lottery and we move up.

There are things that can happen, and to some degree just getting better then hoping for the fluke thing is just as reasonable or maybe even more reasonable than purposefully being bad and hoping on the draft.

[coldfish]

You didn't. I did. If this team is going to rise to legit contender status, it will need a player better than those two.

That's your opinion and if you look before, I said that is 95% chance that its true. There are multiple options to fill out that 5%:
- You get lucky with some combination of pick ups, Lauri and Pat and build some type of medley team.
- Lavine and/or Vuc become better players than they are now

This is ultimately my issue. I think that's exactly what the "plan" is.

And it's not really a plan. It's throwing darts at random B-list/C-list guys and praying for good luck. It's not that different from signing Ben Wallace or Pau Gasol, or trading for Otto Porter.

At the high end, it's Indiana. At the low end, it's, well, Orlando.

The thing is, if you do this, there is a strategy at outplaying your talent level and increasing your overachieving potential - become a goddamn defensive juggernaut. Become the '04 Pistons, basically. The Knicks are basically taking this approach with Thibs now.

How is that supposed to happen with Zach LaVine and Nikola Vucevic on your team?

As opposed to?
- Finding a way to draft an all time great player, developing him, building around him, retaining him and winning?
- Convincing an all time great player to join a 30 win team in Chicago because of all of the Balls you drafted?

Like I said, this current route is very unlikely to work but the alternative is even less likely to work.

[Leslie Forman]

I think people have vastly overrated Vucevic here. He's a good player, but he is a fringe all-star player. He's only moderately efficient and he's very poor defensively. He's also 30, and those statements I just made describe him in his all-time best season ever. Expecting improvement at his age and total minutes, especially at the center position, just strikes me as extraordinarily unlikely.

I don't blame people who are excited. It's an effort to improve! It's a new shiny thing! After years of terribadness, I get it.

But yes, this is essentially giving up two first rounders for 2015 Pau Gasol.

As opposed to?
- Finding a way to draft an all time great player, developing him, building around him, retaining him and winning?
- Convincing an all time great player to join a 30 win team in Chicago because of all of the Balls you drafted?

Like I said, this current route is very unlikely to work but the alternative is even less likely to work.

1. How many of the ATGs here are someone you even want, or would have an even remote shot at as an FA?
2. How are you gonna trade for one, when you've basically depleted your warchest to something that a couple dozen other teams could pretty much match or surpass now?

And, again, you ignore something that's always brought up: high draft picks/young prospects are always the most valuable assets when it comes to trading for a superstar. Always.

You do not need to draft Anthony Davis or Kevin Garnett. You can, however, draft Brandon Ingram and Lonzo Ball and get Anthony Davis. You can draft Jeff Green and Al Jefferson and get Ray Allen and Kevin Garnett.

You can even draft a Zach LaVine and Kris Dunn and get Jimmy Butler!

[DJhitek]

Patrick Williams has to become a super star for this team to rise above 40-45 wins. I’m very skeptical of that but at this point, all you can do is hope.

[WindyCityBorn]

hi

I think people have vastly overrated Vucevic here. He's a good player, but he is a fringe all-star player. He's only moderately efficient and he's very poor defensively. He's also 30, and those statements I just made describe him in his all-time best season ever. Expecting improvement at his age and total minutes, especially at the center position, just strikes me as extraordinarily unlikely.

I don't blame people who are excited. It's an effort to improve! It's a new shiny thing! After years of terribadness, I get it.

But yes, this is essentially giving up two first rounders for 2015 Pau Gasol.

As opposed to?
- Finding a way to draft an all time great player, developing him, building around him, retaining him and winning?
- Convincing an all time great player to join a 30 win team in Chicago because of all of the Balls you drafted?

Like I said, this current route is very unlikely to work but the alternative is even less likely to work.

1. How many of the ATGs here are someone you even want, or would have an even remote shot at as an FA?
2. How are you gonna trade for one, when you've basically depleted your warchest to something that a couple dozen other teams could pretty much match or surpass now?

And, again, you ignore something that's always brought up: high draft picks/young prospects are always the most valuable assets when it comes to trading for a superstar. Always.

You do not need to draft Anthony Davis or Kevin Garnett. You can, however, draft Brandon Ingram and Lonzo Ball and get Anthony Davis. You can draft Jeff Green and Al Jefferson and get Ray Allen and Kevin Garnett.

You can even draft a Zach LaVine and Kris Dunn and get Jimmy Butler!

Star players pick their destinations now. See Harden.