Race to the bottom: Who's our biggest competition?

[NYPiston]

We got the Nets tonight and our fellow tankers will be playing each other (Hou-Min). Honestly just rooting for Rocket wins at this point over the Wolves

The Nets without Harden possibly so this could well be an easy win. The Pistons really caught some bad breaks with Covid hitting the Raptors when it did and those two wins, Harden possibly being out tonight and the tankers around them trading everybody.
I think we should brace for 4th at this point and maybe 5th depending on how the series with the Wizards goes.

[MotownMadness]

We got the Nets tonight and our fellow tankers will be playing each other (Hou-Min). Honestly just rooting for Rocket wins at this point over the Wolves

The Nets without Harden possibly so this could well be an easy win. The Pistons really caught some bad breaks with Covid hitting the Raptors when it did and those two wins, Harden possibly being out tonight and the tankers around them trading everybody.
I think we should brace for 4th at this point and maybe 5th depending on how the series with the Wizards goes.

We'll finish 2nd or 3rd in my opinion

[chrbal]

They just got embarrassed by the jazz. I fully expect Brooklyn to win without or, more likely, with harden.

[The Moose]

Tank in potential jeopardy at this point. Last year we finished 5 in the lottery standings, we might finish the same this year.

If we finish anywhere in the bottom 3 its a win

5 wouldn't be THAT bad.

Obviously it didn't work out for us last year, that roughly 1 in 3 chance of dropping to 7 or worse came through, but we had better odds than that of moving into the top 4. It just unfortunately didn't happen.

This has got to be like my 20th post in this thread talking about the odds, but part of that is because I really do think people aren't looking at them the right way.

Everyone points out that we ended up at 7 last year, nobody brings up that this was because the 7th AND 8th position teams jumped into the top 4- something far more likely for the teams in the early/mid lottery than it was before. The odds have changed. That's bad for us if we actually end up in the bottom 4, but it BENEFITS us if we end up pretty much anywhere else. Yes, it's hard to feel that way given what happened last year, but believe me- being in the 5 spot had way better odds than the 5 spot used to have in terms of odds of striking it rich. The tradeoff, and this is true at pretty much every spot- is that the odds of moving down have also gone up. This on balance is a GOOD tradeoff.

It's clear from the moves and conduct that we're seeing that the change in the lotto system was NOT enough to discourage tanking. It does make things significantly less hopeless for those who fall outside of the bottom 3 teams though.

just to clarify, im very aware of the odds, i just hope we finish bottom 3 because realistically we are a bottom 3 team. Its just other teams are blatantly tanking that might drop us a couple of spots

[buzzkilloton]

So Houston beats the Wolves. Which might seem bad at first glance but actually the models have Hou finishing with the worst record so that actually helps the tank. The Wolves IMO have more talent and I'm guessing a easier SOS going forward without me checking SOS.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2021-nba-predictions/

So were at 3rd the true contenders here are us, Wolves,Magic, and Rockets. The Magic are 2nd now after unloading everything so their scary.

[NYPiston]

I just took a quick look at Houston and Minnesota's schedule. Forget about them, almost every single game each are playing against playoff teams. The Pistons schedule is far easier than both. Just hope to hold 3rd which is also very unlikely considering Orlando's team.

[The Moose]

So Houston beats the Wolves. Which might seem bad at first glance but actually the models have Hou finishing with the worst record so that actually helps the tank. The Wolves IMO have more talent and I'm guessing a easier SOS going forward without me checking SOS.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2021-nba-predictions/

So were at 3rd the true contenders here are us, Wolves,Magic, and Rockets. The Magic are 2nd now after unloading everything so their scary.

Wolves up by 2 with a 1 min to go

Wolves end on a 20-0 run, the Rockets tank is unstoppable.

John Wall a solid 6-25 fg following up from his 8-30 fg game

[ElectricMayhem]

How do you give up 20 straight to the Timberwolves? Nobody's catching Houston.

[DNice68]

So Houston beats the Wolves. Which might seem bad at first glance but actually the models have Hou finishing with the worst record so that actually helps the tank. The Wolves IMO have more talent and I'm guessing a easier SOS going forward without me checking

You my friend jinxed the Rockets! I think they intentionally tanked the fourth quarter for real.

[tmorgan]

That’s better anyway. Minny can finish with a better record than Detroit, but I seriously doubt Houston can.

[DNice68]

I just took a quick look at Houston and Minnesota's schedule. Forget about them, almost every single game each are playing against playoff teams. The Pistons schedule is far easier than both. Just hope to hold 3rd which is also very unlikely considering Orlando's team.

I only see three to four wins on the rest of the Pistons schedule. Also only one guranteed win against the Magic!

[NYPiston]

I only see three to four wins on the rest of the Pistons schedule. Also only one guranteed win against the Magic!

The Pistons have tons of games against non playoff teams and lots against bottom 10 teams.

Minny, Magic, Thunder twice (possibly without SGA), Cavs, Wizards three times, Raptors. Lots of home games too. Lots of opportunities to pile up some wins.
Meanwhile the Rockets have the Wolves twice and the Magic. That's it. All other games are against contending teams.
The Wolves have the Rockets, Magic and Pistons. That's it. The rest are against contending teams.

I wouldn't be surprised to see the Pistons finish 4-5 games above both Houston and Minny.

[DNice68]

I only see three to four wins on the rest of the Pistons schedule. Also only one guranteed win against the Magic!

The Pistons have tons of games against non playoff teams and lots against bottom 10 teams.

Minny, Magic, Thunder twice (possibly without SGA), Cavs, Wizards three times, Raptors. Lots of home games too. Lots of opportunities to pile up some wins.
Meanwhile the Rockets have the Wolves twice and the Magic. That's it. All other games are against contending teams.
The Wolves have the Rockets, Magic and Pistons. That's it. The rest are against contending teams.

I wouldn't be surprised to see the Pistons finish 4-5 games above both Houston and Minny.

You act like the Pistons have just clobbered bad teams. They have been bad against non-playoff teams, and have played well against the good ones. They specifically play bad against teams with good guards(Cavs, Bulls, and early in the year ‘Wolves’) I dub you the ‘King Of Piston Panic’.

[coordinator0]

Just look at that lineup Orlando is trotting out there.

[thesack12]

So Houston beats the Wolves. Which might seem bad at first glance but actually the models have Hou finishing with the worst record so that actually helps the tank. The Wolves IMO have more talent and I'm guessing a easier SOS going forward without me checking SOS.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2021-nba-predictions/

So were at 3rd the true contenders here are us, Wolves,Magic, and Rockets. The Magic are 2nd now after unloading everything so their scary.

Wolves up by 2 with a 1 min to go

Wolves end on a 20-0 run, the Rockets tank is unstoppable.

John Wall a solid 6-25 fg following up from his 8-30 fg game

Rockets didn't score a single point in the last 7:31 of the game. The Rockets managed this feat against the mighty Twolves and their 3rd worst defense in the league to boot.

I got to wondering when is the last time a modern NBA team had that long of a scoring drought. If this guy is accurate, the modern NBA record for scoring drought is the Nets in 1991 with no points in 7:40 game clock. So Houston narrowly missed out on setting the new record.

Watch on YouTube

[NYPiston]

You act like the Pistons have just clobbered bad teams. They have been bad against non-playoff teams, and have played well against the good ones. They specifically play bad against teams with good guards(Cavs, Bulls, and early in the year ‘Wolves’) I dub you the ‘King Of Piston Panic’.

I just pointed out to you that their schedule is much easier than Houston and Minnesota's. You can read into that as you wish but if you look at the schedules, on paper, the Pistons have very little chance to finish behind either of them and we know what a mess Orlando is currently.

Also, the Pistons have been better against the bad teams recently beating Houston and Toronto twice. This isn't about "Piston Panic". It's looking at the reality of the situation. Nothing is guaranteed of course but the odds are against the Pistons finishing bottom 3.

[Snakebites]

For whatever it’s worth, fivethirtyeight has us finishing 2nd worst.

Not sure how their calculation works though so I can’t vouch for it.

[DNice68]

For whatever it’s worth, fivethirtyeight has us finishing 2nd worst.

Not sure how their calculation works though so I can’t vouch for it.

Our roster really isn’t better than Minny’s if you really look at it.

[Snakebites]

For whatever it’s worth, fivethirtyeight has us finishing 2nd worst.

Not sure how their calculation works though so I can’t vouch for it.

Our roster really isn’t better than Minny’s if you really look at it.

Talent wise no.

But for whatever reason they seem to play like less than the sum of their parts. At four of their last 10 won that could be changing, but with a much harder schedule than us to close things out I don’t see it being enough.

For those hoping we fall to second worst, they’re a better bet than Houston though.

[chrbal]

Rockets sound like they plan on using their vets. They are not going to suddenly be amazing, but I think that screws up their tank.

They had the shell of Wall, Wood trying to carry the team, tucker sitting and sulking and no one else.

Adding the djs, Kelly, and possibly Bradley makes them better. Not amazingly better, but just enough to screw up their free fall. Even mclemore seems to be getting going.