thesack12 wrote:On the surface, I agree on the cap space points. However, with the way Jimmy's deal is structured they would actually get more cap space by moving on from him next season as opposed to this year. Its not much, about $1.5 mil more, but still more. Furthermore, while cap space always has value, at this point in the offseason its not nearly as important as it was a couple weeks ago. So if the intention is to just roll it over to next season, that doesn't seem like much motivation when the ability to create the cap space next season isn't going anywhere.
Of course the paycut would make sense for the team, but I don't think it does for Jimmy. Now if he would agree to a cut without voiding next season (thus killing a potential trade next season), sure party down. But Jimmy will want some kind of concession from the team in order to do so. Lynch and Shanahan have already come out and said that Jimmy is the starter for 2021, which means they aren't cutting him. So unless that is just a flat out lie, if you are Jimmy why would you agree to a pay cut? Short of Carolina (who is likely to be aggressive for a QB in the draft), there are no other clear paths to a starting job. In addition, Jimmy's best opportunity to have a bounceback season (in what figures to be a pseudo contract year for all intents and purposes) is with the 49ers. He obviously won't have to try and learn a new offense, like he would if he left, and he has far and away the most offensive talent around him than he's ever had here.
Assuming he has a nice bounceback season and the team is successful, you could argue that a Jimmy's contract would be pretty attractive on the trade market. It gives the team some flexibility, unlike a situation like the Colts where if Wentz continues to suck they are stuck with him for several more years at a monster cap hit. Someone trading for Jimmy next season, would take on a contract that isn't crippling (12th highest QB) and have a full season to get an intimate look at him to see if they want him as part of their future. If not, you can quickly move on to finding the next guy. If so, you'll be looking to extend a guy who is 32 years old so he won't command top dollar. However, from the team perspective he'll be a very "young" 32 year old in that he still wouldn't have much mileage on him. What like a total of like 4-5 seasons worth of of actual playing time. And if they are still on the fence at the time, the franchise tag is always an option to buy more time should they choose to do so.
To conclude, short of Jimmy doing the team a solid and taking a cut this season without any other incentive for him, with the cap space always being available next season I just don't see the motivation to do anything with Jimmy's contract. But that's just me.
I'm not saying this to be a dick, but your comment about the team saving more by moving on from Garoppolo next year makes me wonder if you understand how the salary cap works. Yes, in relative terms, they save $23.6 million by cutting or trading him this year, and they would save $25.6 million if they cut or traded him next year (I'm looking at his contract breakdown on Spotrac to get these numbers). Presumably that's where you're coming up with this argument about more savings by moving on from him next year. Here's the problem with the argument: they will have paid him an additional $23.6 million THIS YEAR.
Over the next two years, the team can realize cap savings of $49.2 million by moving on from him now, or they can realize savings of $25.6 million by moving on from him next year. Obviously the savings are dramatically higher if they part ways with him this year. And with those savings, you either spend some of it this season - admittedly the pickings are slim, but maybe you bring in Jadeveon Clowney on a one-year deal - or you roll the total amount into next season.
Another way to think about this. Let's say they keep Garoppolo and basically max out their cap this year following the draft, which seems likely. At present, they have about $173 million committed for the 2022 season (according to overthecap). Let's say the cap next year will be $200 million (it was almost that much in 2020). Remove Garoppolo next year and they have about $148 million committed, and thus about $52 million in cap space before making any moves. But remove him this year, and you roll that $23.6 million into next year. So in 2022, instead of $52 million in cap space, they would have about $76 million. You can use ALL of that money to re-sign players like Warner and Bosa, or they can be semi-aggressive in FA to partially make up for the lack of impact draft picks.
This presents a strong incentive to move on from Garoppolo this year. Now, look, I've already said I don't think they do that. I think the most likely result - by far - is that Garoppolo returns and plays one more season on his current contract. But it's there, and Garoppolo's agents know it's there. As you pointed out, at this point, Garoppolo doesn't have many other options if he wants to rehabilitate his value this season. There aren't many openings for a starter, fewer that can afford anything close to his current cap figure, and none that can field the sort of talent the Niners can. So he actually has a pretty strong incentive to stick with the Niners and try to replicate or improve upon his 2019 performance, even if it means losing out on a decent chunk of change.
You're getting hung up on my mention that they could void his final year. That was almost a throwaway thought on my part. They can do that, but they certainly don't have to, and it may be that it's in both parties' interests not to. That way, Garoppolo would, in theory, still have that high salary if he does rebound, have a strong season, and get traded. And the Niners would still have his contract rights for another season and could trade him after the season when there might be more of a market for him.
