What exactly is the plan?

[League Circles]

I liked Wendell, but the picks we gave up are basically worthless to me and any other serious person with a window into reality. We basically gave up two mid to late firsts.

I'm not super high on Vucevic, but we didn't give up very much.

[Michael Jackson]

That's a strawman. I never said a player better than Vuc and Lavine.

You didn't. I did. If this team is going to rise to legit contender status, it will need a player better than those two.

The Bulls have the following assets:
- $20-25m in capspace if they want it
- Pat
- Coby (lol)
- They could choose to keep Thad and Sato and then take on salary with Aminu's contract adding up to $35m in expiring.
- Sign and trade Lauri
- Pick swaps and 2025 pick

Can't trade the 2025 pick, you have to go out to 2026, because the 2023 might not convey to 2024, and 2025 is then off the table.

The cap room and the expirings are an either or situation. Thad/Sato are really useful players on this team, and the odds of improving in FA by losing both and bringing in 25M of new salary strike me as very low. It isn't a good FA year, and those two are probably both on fair deals, so spending less money to get another player probably won't help you short term, maybe it would help more long term if Thad degrades and isn't someone you want to keep past next year (likely true), and the new player is then better in 2 years than what you'd have by keeping Thad/Sato, but you are still overall likely worse next year.

IMO, there is a reasonable chance that they could turn that group of stuff into a 17-19 PER type player. I know that a GM actually making trades to fill out a team feels like a miracle for Bulls fans and makes you want to celebrate with hookers and cocaine (like I am at this very minute) but its really not that hard.

Yeah, I think they could turn that into a 17-19 PER player, and I don't think said player would move the needle much on the Bulls becoming a better team. They're more than that type of player away, but I agree, they could get an above average starting caliber player with those assets.

I think the Bulls are much further away than "filling out the team". They are a star talent away from being more than a low 40s win team I believe, though again, I hope they prove me wrong.

We absolutely are a star away still. We need that at least. We “might” be a 40 win team. The move AK made was not an easy slam dunk no brainer it still leaves issues. That being said I like to see glaring holes patched up and a willingness to improve. Pax was too scared to make moves and that made the team rot in mediocrity, AK seems to think he can be creative and make more moves and he improved the optics and culture of the team. It was the right move but it doesn’t make it great.

[dukeespn]

We have 2 all stars.

That's crazy to say that.

What's hilarious is the T-Wolves also have two all stars. I know Towns played only few games with Dlo due to their endless injuries but they were awful even when those two all stars played with each other.

I'm not saying the combination of Vuc and LaVine will be as bad as them. I actually think they'll be fantastic on offense.

But I want to point out that having two all stars itself means nothing.  Especially when those players are not top 15 players AND they are all bad defenders.

We have 2 current all stars. We had 0 for a while. That is freaking awesome to think about.

And you already explained away why I'm not as pessimistic as you are. When you compare yourself to others, you get yourself in a loop of negativity.

Saying the fact that LaVine and Vuc are both bad defenders if not terrible defenders and they are not top 15 players doesn't require you to be pessimistic.

It's a fact and you are the one who decided to ignore that fact. You don't have "to get yourself in a loop of negativity " to figure out this team's ceiling is still not high enough to make meaningful stages like the ECF or the Finals.

[YouMustBeJoakim]

.. but really worried about the defense.

He's already a bad defensive center at 30. Historically, that is a terrible, terrible sign for longevity. I don't see how he's going to do any better than Wendell or Lauri in these drop back schemes Donovan insists on, and he is going to bring back memories of Pau Gasol when trying to play a pick-n-roll tight.

I’m curious to know your criteria of a “bad defensive center?” Just two seasons ago, Vucevic had the 3rd highest defensive wins shares and 5th highest defensive rating of all centers. And throughout his entire career, he cracked the the top 10 in defensive rebound % 6 times (made top 5 in four of his last five seasons).

And career defensive numbers, including recent ones, shows that he’s outplaying other centers such as Miles Turner, Steven Adams, Brook Lopez, KAT, the list goes on..Yeah ok, he seems slow with the eye test and he’s not a top 5 defensive center. But compared to his position, he’s a hell of a lot better defensively than Zach Lavine. Give the guy a chance, Jesus.

[chefo]

To people slamming Vuc's defense... dude is big and wide and strong like an ox, and he knows it. Other players know it too. Defense from a C is much more than blocking shots. He rotates well and just eats up space. I don't remember other teams making it a point to go at him, the way they did with WCJ (because he was too short) and Thad (because he is a SF masquerading as a C).

It's a low bar to clear, but Vuc would be an upgrade on D over both Thad and WCJ at the C spot.

People see a big, somewhat slow(er) footed guy and just assume he's a lumbering stiff. Vuc is pretty mobile for a legit 7'0 footer that's as heavy as he is.

The only thing he can't do well is chase guys around the perimeter--in last year's D, he'd look horrible. In this year's drop D, he's just a much bigger body in the paint than we've had so it will probably work out just fine most nights.

[WindyCityBorn]

We can have around $30 million in cap space this summer and sign Ball outright. We don’t need luck.

To get there we would have to renounce Sato, Young and Markennen. And Ball can’t be signed outright, NO still owns his rights for first refusal.

Not sure if you have been watching, but Young has been our second best player this season. All this just to try to sign Lonzo. Who can’t create in the half court. Yeah, we need luck.

We don’t need renounce all three. Just Markannen and Sato. And New Orleans won’t match a huge offer. So no luck needed. But keep preaching how we are screwed and you hate our future. I’ll enjoy having two all-stars and hopefully making the playoffs.

[dukeespn]

.. but really worried about the defense.

He's already a bad defensive center at 30. Historically, that is a terrible, terrible sign for longevity. I don't see how he's going to do any better than Wendell or Lauri in these drop back schemes Donovan insists on, and he is going to bring back memories of Pau Gasol when trying to play a pick-n-roll tight.

I’m curious to know your criteria of a “bad defensive center?” Just two seasons ago, Vucevic had the 3rd highest defensive wins shares and 5th highest defensive rating of all centers. And throughout his entire career, he cracked the the top 10 in defensive rebound % 6 times (made top 5 in four of his last five seasons).

And career defensive numbers, including recent ones, shows that he’s outplaying other centers such as Miles Turner, Steven Adams, Brook Lopez, KAT, the list goes on..Yeah ok, he seems slow with the eye test and he’s not a top 5 defensive center. But compared to his position, he’s a hell of a lot better defensively than Zach Lavine. Give the guy a chance, Jesus.

“Defensive Winshares”, huh?

You really don’t know how to get “defensive winshares” number, do you?

You substract offensive winshares calculated from total winshares calculated and you get “defensive winshares”. In short you can’t calculate defensive winshares itself directly.

If I see someone use defensive winshares to evaluate players’ defensive impact I should think that guy really doesn’t know what he is doing.

[JohnnyTapwater]

What's hilarious is the T-Wolves also have two all stars. I know Towns played only few games with Dlo due to their endless injuries but they were awful even when those two all stars played with each other.

I'm not saying the combination of Vuc and LaVine will be as bad as them. I actually think they'll be fantastic on offense.

But I want to point out that having two all stars itself means nothing.  Especially when those players are not top 15 players AND they are all bad defenders.

We have 2 current all stars. We had 0 for a while. That is freaking awesome to think about.

And you already explained away why I'm not as pessimistic as you are. When you compare yourself to others, you get yourself in a loop of negativity.

Saying the fact that LaVine and Vuc are both bad defenders if not terrible defenders and they are not top 15 players doesn't require you to be pessimistic.

It's a fact and you are the one who decided to ignore that fact. You don't have "to get yourself in a loop of negativity " to figure out this team's ceiling is still not high enough to make meaningful stages like the ECF or the Finals.

I understand you don't fully understand what pessimism is, and I don't blame you for it. However, please don't think I need to be sucked into the same doom and gloom loop because I choose to be excited for our future.

Everything is a choice. I'm choosing to see the light right now. Can I please enjoy myself and fan how I choose to? I live my life this way, and I fan the same.

[dukeespn]

I criticize using “defensive winshares” to evaluate someone’s defense so I feel like I should recommend another stats you could follow.

I recommend you to look at DFG% =< 6ft. especially when you evaluate centers’ defensive impact at the rim. I think I don’t have to tell you that Vucevic is definitely not a good switch defender at the perimeter. And DFG% =< 6ft. also says that he is not a good rim protector either.

https://www.nba.com/stats/players/defense-dash-lt6/?sort=LT_06_PCT&dir=1&Season=2019-20&SeasonType=Regular%20Season&CF=FGA_LT_06*GE*5:GP*GE*40

While these numbers suggest Lauri was one of the worst defensive bigs in the league last season (which happens to be very true) they also suggest that Vucevic is really bad too.

Except for 2018-19 season Vucevic has been one of the worst rim protector in the league while he had great defenders like Gordon or Isaac around him. That’s not a good sign. And the Bulls even don’t have those long and athletic defenders like Gordon or Isaac.

[SoundOfViolence]

I criticize using “defensive winshares” to evaluate someone’s defense so I feel like I should recommend another stats you could follow.

I recommend you to look at DFG% =< 6ft. especially when you evaluate centers’ defensive impact at the rim. I think I don’t have to tell you that Vucevic is definitely not a good switch defender at the perimeter. And DFG% =< 6ft. also says that he is not a good rim protector either.

https://www.nba.com/stats/players/defense-dash-lt6/?sort=LT_06_PCT&dir=1&Season=2019-20&SeasonType=Regular%20Season&CF=FGA_LT_06*GE*5:GP*GE*40

While these numbers suggest Lauri was one of the worst defensive bigs in the league last season (which happens to be very true) they also suggest that Vucevic is really bad too.

Except for 2018-19 season Vucevic has been one of the worst rim protector in the league while he had great defenders like Gordon or Isaac around him. That’s not a good sign. And the Bulls even don’t have those long and athletic defenders like Gordon or Isaac.

Hmm... If I read that correctly, that stat seems to tell us that defensively Lauri has improved considerably from last season and currently stands about in the middle of the pack with names like LMA, Valanciunas, Sabonis, and is clearly better than eg. AD, Vooch or S. Adams. Yet most people on this board still seem to curse his D to be 'atrocius'.

I wonder which way it actually is – and I'm positive that I will be hit in the face with the "factual truth" sooner than later.

[dukeespn]

I criticize using “defensive winshares” to evaluate someone’s defense so I feel like I should recommend another stats you could follow.

I recommend you to look at DFG% =< 6ft. especially when you evaluate centers’ defensive impact at the rim. I think I don’t have to tell you that Vucevic is definitely not a good switch defender at the perimeter. And DFG% =< 6ft. also says that he is not a good rim protector either.

https://www.nba.com/stats/players/defense-dash-lt6/?sort=LT_06_PCT&dir=1&Season=2019-20&SeasonType=Regular%20Season&CF=FGA_LT_06*GE*5:GP*GE*40

While these numbers suggest Lauri was one of the worst defensive bigs in the league last season (which happens to be very true) they also suggest that Vucevic is really bad too.

Except for 2018-19 season Vucevic has been one of the worst rim protector in the league while he had great defenders like Gordon or Isaac around him. That’s not a good sign. And the Bulls even don’t have those long and athletic defenders like Gordon or Isaac.

Hmm... If I read that correctly, that stat seems to tell us that defensively Lauri has improved considerably from last season and currently stands about in the middle of the pack with names like LMA, Valanciunas, Sabonis, and is clearly better than eg. AD, Vooch or S. Adams. Yet most people on this board still seem to curse his D to be 'atrocius'.

I wonder which way it actually is – and I'm positive that I will be hit in the face with the "factual truth" sooner than later.

Anthony Davis' defense has been meh this year before he got injured. And I don't think I have to tell you that his DFG% before this year was really great. Just check the numbers.

For example his 2019-20 DFG% is 49.8% which is very low comparing to other players' DFG%. 51.3% in 2017-18 season.

OFC there were some ups and downs but he proved that when he's fully engaged he could be a monster rim protector. Plus he's really great at defending players at the perimeter.

Lauri's DFG% this year? It's 59.4%. He's made some progress but his defense at the rim is still below-average.
And I think if you read correctly you'll tell that right away.

I don't know what's the meaning of "factual truth" but there's some serious misleading takes on your comment.

[DJhitek]

We don’t need renounce all three. Just Markannen and Sato. And New Orleans won’t match a huge offer. So no luck needed. But keep preaching how we are screwed and you hate our future. I’ll enjoy having two all-stars and hopefully making the playoffs.

Thanks for telling me exactly how to react and feel as a fan.

Also, if you are predicting the future please enlighten me on the next power ball numbers since you are so convinced that NO won’t match any offer for Ball.

To get the full 30 mil, all 3 players have to be renounced, which is what you stated before. I only responded to that particular portion.

Now listen, since it’s obvious we disagree, which is ok, I’ll just say this. I’ve stated numerous times I’ll enjoy the product on hand. But I’d never trade multiple assets for a center. But hey, feel free to click that ignore button if you are that adamant that I should be a different fan.

[NecessaryEvil]

The next part of the plan should be to turn Lauri into a 1st rounder (since we gave up two) or + Coby White into a trade for a legit #3


Siakam
Woods
J. Grant


Fred VanVleet or Brogdan also may be available alongside Lonzo Ball in the PG hunt.

LaVine, Vucevic & Williams is a nice core going forward.

What happens to Coby White & Lauri, will become evidently clear after these next 29 regular season games.


I see home court advantage by next season dependent upon THOSE moves.

[SoundOfViolence]

I criticize using “defensive winshares” to evaluate someone’s defense so I feel like I should recommend another stats you could follow.

I recommend you to look at DFG% =< 6ft. especially when you evaluate centers’ defensive impact at the rim. I think I don’t have to tell you that Vucevic is definitely not a good switch defender at the perimeter. And DFG% =< 6ft. also says that he is not a good rim protector either.

https://www.nba.com/stats/players/defense-dash-lt6/?sort=LT_06_PCT&dir=1&Season=2019-20&SeasonType=Regular%20Season&CF=FGA_LT_06*GE*5:GP*GE*40

While these numbers suggest Lauri was one of the worst defensive bigs in the league last season (which happens to be very true) they also suggest that Vucevic is really bad too.

Except for 2018-19 season Vucevic has been one of the worst rim protector in the league while he had great defenders like Gordon or Isaac around him. That’s not a good sign. And the Bulls even don’t have those long and athletic defenders like Gordon or Isaac.

Hmm... If I read that correctly, that stat seems to tell us that defensively Lauri has improved considerably from last season and currently stands about in the middle of the pack with names like LMA, Valanciunas, Sabonis, and is clearly better than eg. AD, Vooch or S. Adams. Yet most people on this board still seem to curse his D to be 'atrocius'.

I wonder which way it actually is – and I'm positive that I will be hit in the face with the "factual truth" sooner than later.

Anthony Davis' defense has been meh this year before he got injured. And I don't think I have to tell you that his DFG% before this year was really great. Just check the numbers.

For example his 2019-20 DFG% is 49.8% which is very low comparing to other players' DFG%. 51.3% in 2017-18 season.

OFC there were some ups and downs but he proved that when he's fully engaged he could be a monster rim protector. Plus he's really great at defending players at the perimeter.

Lauri's DFG% this year? It's 59.4%. He's made some progress but his defense at the rim is still below-average.
And I think if you read correctly you'll tell that right away.

I don't know what's the meaning of "factual truth" but there's some serious misleading takes on your comment.

My original purpose was to suggest that we shouldn't perhaps read too much into statistics - and when we do refer to them, we should try to do it as objectively as possible to be fair to the players.

As you singled out only AD as a good defender who's had a down year - and I fully agree to that - I was wondering how do you think Lauri compares to the other guys I mentioned with about the same DFG%?

And one reason I brought the whole thing up, is the fact that so many writers on this board seem to revel calling Lauri's D awful, non-existent, beyond hopeless etc. while his stats this year are quite average at least. And IMO he's actually quite good at defending perimeter players too.

Anyways, you end with saying my comment had "some serious misleading takes", and I would be thankful if you would be so kind and point them all out for me, so I could perhaps do a better job with my future posts.

[dougthonus]

We don’t need renounce all three. Just Markannen and Sato. And New Orleans won’t match a huge offer. So no luck needed. But keep preaching how we are screwed and you hate our future. I’ll enjoy having two all-stars and hopefully making the playoffs.

I will absolutely enjoy the Bulls if they are considerably better after this trade. It will be more fun to watch than the tea was a week ago. I will do so knowing that the odds of this being part of this group becoming more than a high average team are extremely low. We were watching a team trying to make the leap to low average, so it's a big jump forward. I'll also do so knowing that there is a very good chance that we really screwed ourselves in a few years, but we'll wait and see how it turns out.

[iqureshi]

We're slowly becoming the jazz/nuggets of the east, with crazy cap flexibility having two all stars almost combined make what russ cp3 makes. Think the side trades (theis Farooq, brown jr) would have secured us a playoff spot. Zach and vuc can improve with each other, and vuc had never had shooters around him like this. If we don't do a stupid move like brogdon ball van fleet, who will never live up to their contract. Akme showing they can find undervalued talent like Theo used to do for the cubs. Still banking on free agency but if they just work with short term deals they should keep banking cap space for the next disgruntled star opting out. Better then relying on the 7th pick.

[Cabbage bulls]

Are the Bulls favorites if they sign Kwahi this offseason?

FA PG/Coby
LaVine
Kwahi
Patrick Williams
Vucevic

Assumed starters basically. Didn't add the secondary pieces in there. Assuming Thad, Sato and Lauri are gone. Maybe we can keep one of them, but I'm not sure of the cap situation

[WindyCityBorn]

We don’t need renounce all three. Just Markannen and Sato. And New Orleans won’t match a huge offer. So no luck needed. But keep preaching how we are screwed and you hate our future. I’ll enjoy having two all-stars and hopefully making the playoffs.

I will absolutely enjoy the Bulls if they are considerably better after this trade. It will be more fun to watch than the tea was a week ago. I will do so knowing that the odds of this being part of this group becoming more than a high average team are extremely low. We were watching a team trying to make the leap to low average, so it's a big jump forward. I'll also do so knowing that there is a very good chance that we really screwed ourselves in a few years, but we'll wait and see how it turns out.

I don’t see how we have possibly screwed ourselves unless we are not a top 4 seed or better come 2023 or Zach is gone or something like hat. This team now is not our final form.

[YouMustBeJoakim]

You really don’t know how to get “defensive winshares” number, do you?

First, you go to basketball-reference

Second, you to advanced stats

Third, you can stop being a stick in the mud and enjoy the one moment in the last 5 years Bulls fans have actually been excited

[Stratmaster]

There is no model that works in the NBA. I think that needs to be clear. If I had to put odds on how this will turn out (over the next 4 years):
40% Complete Failure. Either due to injury or bad chemistry, the team still isn't a playoff team and gives away a few #10 picks on the way to a blow up.
30% Playoff fodder. Team becomes one of those low end playoff teams that gets bounced easily every year. No playoff wins and miss a year.
25% Competitive playoff team. Win a few playoff rounds, maybe make an ECF.
3% Contender. One of the top 4 teams in the NBA talked about as a possible winner.
2% Win a title

I think the odds of "competitive playoff team" are considerably less than you, though also think complete failure is probably less than you too.

I'd say something like:
25% complete failure (no playoff appearances)
50% playoff fodder (no playoff wins, make playoffs at least 2 of next 3 years including this one)
20% quasi competitive - do not get out of the 2nd round, but make the 2nd round once or twice
~4% make an ECF
less than 1% be contender (top 4 team in the league)

Are you making the assumption the team we see now is the team we have for the next 5 seasons?

It won't be. There will be a new point guard on the scene. The question is who. I don't even think it needs to be an all-star level PG because that is a crowded group.

It isn't just that the Bulls got a2nd all star. It is how he fits.

The Bulls likely have the number one PnR duo in the league now. And the NBA is absolutely a pick and roll league. Thad ain't shabby at it either.

A high quality starting point guard would get this team into the late rounds. It is more important that he be a defensive force and solid ball handler/distributor because the Bulls absolutely should be golden offensively at this point. I don't know how you stop that PnR/PnP game especially since the Bulls have other quality spotters at the 3 point line.

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