2021 Cap Projections

[nate33]

After the Gafford trade, we now have some pretty decent visibility on what the core of this team will look like next year.

We have 8 players under contract, assuming we opt in with Gafford and opt out with Gil:

Code: Select all

PG Westbrook  44.2M
SG Beal       34.5M
SF Hutchinson  4.0M
SF Avdija      4.7M
PF Hachimura   4.9M
PF Bertans    16.0M
C  Bryant      8.7M
C  Gafford     1.8M
TOTAL        119.0M

Optimistically, we can sign Mathews with Early Bird Rights for $1.5M. We can match any expected offer, so if someone offers more, we can still retain him. If Neto can be retained for the vet minimum ($1.6M) or the non-Bird exception ($1.7M), I'd keep him too, or another equivalent backup PG for that cost. That gives us 10 guys, 2 at each position, for 120.7M.

Our first round pick will cost between 7 and 10M if it's top 4, or about $5.5M if it's 7th or so. That's 11 guys. Additional vets will cost about $1.5M each. (Maybe one of those guys will be Bonga.) First year players will cost $900K. The luxtax threshold is $136.6.

So it looks like, at best, we will have $7M to spend on a decent free agent if we want to stay under the tax, less if we land a top 4 pick.

I suspect the team will be willing to exceed the tax if they retain Beal. It will be their last opportunity to appear to be committed to winning. If that's the case, then they could use Early Bird rights to retain Bonga and non-Bird rights to retain Lopez if they want, and thereby preserve the entire MLE to go after a $10M free agent.

[FAH1223]

This should become the default 2021 Offseason Thread as well.

In terms of free agent targets...

The list of PGs available isn't that impressive. We need a guy who can shoot and guard. Off this list here, I see Avery Bradley but he's not a true PG.

https://www.spotrac.com/nba/free-agents/point-guard/

We also need a veteran wing defender who can shoot.

https://www.spotrac.com/nba/free-agents/small-forward/

Maybe a guy like Torrey Craig? Darius Miller? Trevor Ariza again LOL?

[Dat2U]

After the Gafford trade, we now have some pretty decent visibility on what the core of this team will look like next year.

We have 8 players under contract, assuming we opt in with Gafford and opt out with Gil:

Code: Select all

PG Westbrook  44.2M
SG Beal       34.5M
SF Hutchinson  4.0M
SF Avdija      4.7M
PF Hachimura   4.9M
PF Bertans    16.0M
C  Bryant      8.7M
C  Gafford     1.8M
TOTAL        119.0M

Optimistically, we can sign Mathews with Early Bird Rights for $1.5M. We can match any expected offer, so if someone offers more, we can still retain him. If Neto can be retained for the vet minimum ($1.6M) or the non-Bird exception ($1.7M), I'd keep him too, or another equivalent backup PG for that cost. That gives us 10 guys, 2 at each position, for 120.7M.

Our first round pick will cost between 7 and 10M if it's top 4, or about $5.5M if it's 7th or so. That's 11 guys. Additional vets will cost about $1.5M each. (Maybe one of those guys will be Bonga.) First year players will cost $900K. The luxtax threshold is $136.6.

So it looks like, at best, we will have $7M to spend on a decent free agent if we want to stay under the tax, less if we land a top 4 pick.

I suspect the team will be willing to exceed the tax if they retain Beal. It will be their last opportunity to appear to be committed to winning. If that's the case, then they could use Early Bird rights to retain Bonga and non-Bird rights to retain Lopez if they want, and thereby preserve the entire MLE to go after a $10M free agent.

If I'm the Wizards, I'm going to OKC to suggest a Horford for Westbrook swap.

Horford has 2 years left and is done in OKC. OKC promised they'd have a trade partner in the offseason. Westbrook goes back home to finish his career where he started.

G Suggs
G Beal / Matthews
F Avdija / Bonga / Hutchison
F Hachimura / Bertans
C Horford / Bryant / Gafford

[doclinkin]

If I'm the Wizards, I'm going to OKC to suggest a Horford for Westbrook swap.

Horford has 2 years left and is done in OKC. OKC promised they'd have a trade partner in the offseason. Westbrook goes back home to finish his career where he started.

G Suggs
G Beal / Matthews
F Avdija / Bonga / Hutchison
F Hachimura / Bertans
C Horford / Bryant / Gafford

Sure. Why for OKC though? They shut down Horford to develop their youth. They know Russ' game. He uses up all the possessions that their young backcourt would need. I guess an infusion of attitude and work ethic? But only if a coach can rein him in and use him sparingly. If so maybe his attitude is less positive?

[Dat2U]

If I'm the Wizards, I'm going to OKC to suggest a Horford for Westbrook swap.

Horford has 2 years left and is done in OKC. OKC promised they'd have a trade partner in the offseason. Westbrook goes back home to finish his career where he started.

G Suggs
G Beal / Matthews
F Avdija / Bonga / Hutchison
F Hachimura / Bertans
C Horford / Bryant / Gafford

Sure. Why for OKC though? They shut down Horford to develop their youth. They know Russ' game. He uses up all the possessions that their young backcourt would need. I guess an infusion of attitude and work ethic? But only if a coach can rein him in and use him sparingly. If so maybe his attitude is less positive?

Its a pipe dream but I'm leaning on OKC's long term relationship & experience with Westbrook and a similarly bad contract they will need to move. They can pay to dump Horford (which they can - they've got endless picks to do so) or they can bring their franchise guy back home. It probably doesn't work but if I'm GM, I'm doing everything possible to get out of brining back Westbrook next season. Maybe he can still be an all-pro over an extended period of time in a perfect situation but it feels like a long shot and likely unsustainable as he continues to get older.

To be honest, I may be feeling the same way about Wall if he was playing here like he has in Houston for the past two weeks.

Sick of these vets who mean well but stubbornly think the only way games can be won is with them dominating possessions. That's fine when you have elite efficiency. It becomes a tank driver when your efficiency is near the bottom of the league.

[FAH1223]

If I'm the Wizards, I'm going to OKC to suggest a Horford for Westbrook swap.

Horford has 2 years left and is done in OKC. OKC promised they'd have a trade partner in the offseason. Westbrook goes back home to finish his career where he started.

G Suggs
G Beal / Matthews
F Avdija / Bonga / Hutchison
F Hachimura / Bertans
C Horford / Bryant / Gafford

Sure. Why for OKC though? They shut down Horford to develop their youth. They know Russ' game. He uses up all the possessions that their young backcourt would need. I guess an infusion of attitude and work ethic? But only if a coach can rein him in and use him sparingly. If so maybe his attitude is less positive?

Its a pipe dream but I'm leaning on OKC's long term relationship & experience with Westbrook and a similarly bad contract they will need to move. They can pay to dump Horford (which they can - they've got endless picks to do so) or they can bring their franchise guy back home. It probably doesn't work but if I'm GM, I'm doing everything possible to get out of brining back Westbrook next season. Maybe he can still be an all-pro over an extended period of time in a perfect situation but it feels like a long shot and likely unsustainable as he continues to get older.

To be honest, I may be feeling the same way about Wall if he was playing here like he has in Houston for the past two weeks.

Sick of these vets who mean well but stubbornly think the only way games can be won is with them dominating possessions. That's fine when you have elite efficiency. It becomes a tank driver when your efficiency is near the bottom of the league.

Let's say that fails.

You're stuck with Russ (and the insane stans on Twitter) for another year.

Obviously the draft is one thing, we'll probably be unlucky and have to draft someone like Kuminga or Green or some body like that.

What do we do with the MLE?

[NatP4]

I really like Kris Dunn with the MLE, but it all depends on the draft. All of Suggs, Green, Mobley, and Cunningham are totally different players. If we end up at 7-8ish, who knows who they might pick?

My dream scenario is to land Suggs and trade Westbrook for another bad contract/expirings. A player(s) that we can just bury on the roster and never play. If we land at 7-8ish, pick Wagner and do the same thing.

Suggs Dunn Winston
Beal Mathews
Avdija Bonga
Hachimura Bertans
Gafford Bryant

[nate33]

I've looked. There is no way to get rid of Westbrook. I'd absolutely to that Horford deal that Dat2U proposed, but I doubt OKC would.

I think our best bet with Westbrook is to hope that he plays well in a 5-out set alongside Bryant at center. If he has to start for political reasons, then send him to the bench real early, like after 4 or 5 minutes or so, and then bring him in to run the 2nd unit and make sure Bryant is at center with him and Bertans at forward. Hopefully you can make him look as good as possible by putting him in an ideal situation as far as teammates, and having him match up against backups. Maybe we can make him look good enough that he can be unloaded by the Trade Deadline.

But honestly, I just don't see this thing working out. The team won't be good next year if it's basically the same team plus a rookie, even if the rookie is Suggs or Mobley. And when we suck next year, we're going to have to trade Beal. By then, we will be trading him under duress, and his value will drop.

The only real solution is to trade Beal this offseason. Then just buy out Westbrook and start over.

[FAH1223]

I really like Kris Dunn with the MLE, but it all depends on the draft. All of Suggs, Green, Mobley, and Cunningham are totally different players. If we end up at 7-8ish, who knows who they might pick?

My dream scenario is to land Suggs and trade Westbrook for another bad contract/expirings. A player(s) that we can just bury on the roster and never play. If we land at 7-8ish, pick Wagner and do the same thing.

Suggs Dunn Winston
Beal Mathews
Avdija Bonga
Hachimura Bertans
Gafford Bryant

I've looked. There is no way to get rid of Westbrook. I'd absolutely to that Horford deal that Dat2U proposed, but I doubt OKC would.

I think our best bet with Westbrook is to hope that he plays well in a 5-out set alongside Bryant at center. If he has to start for political reasons, then send him to the bench real early, like after 4 or 5 minutes or so, and then bring him in to run the 2nd unit and make sure Bryant is at center with him and Bertans at forward. Hopefully you can make him look as good as possible by putting him in an ideal situation as far as teammates, and having him match up against backups. Maybe we can make him look good enough that he can be unloaded by the Trade Deadline.

But honestly, I just don't see this thing working out. The team won't be good next year if it's basically the same team plus a rookie, even if the rookie is Suggs or Mobley. And when we suck next year, we're going to have to trade Beal. By then, we will be trading him under duress, and his value will drop.

The only real solution is to trade Beal this offseason. Then just buy out Westbrook and start over.

That's the conventional wisdom. But Leonsis doesn't wanna trade Beal.

[nate33]

The only real solution is to trade Beal this offseason. Then just buy out Westbrook and start over.

That's the conventional wisdom. But Leonsis doesn't wanna trade Beal.

I understood the conventional wisdom. I even could see how they talked themselves into believing that by getting Wall back (or Westbrook as it turned out), the team could get back to their playoff ways. So their decision not to trade Beal up through the start of this season was defensible. And their decision not to trade him at the deadline was understandable because the market was too small.

But now, it's obvious that the team isn't going to win as constructed. The Westbrook/Beal duo is an abject disaster. You know it. I know it. Even management has to know it. There's no reason to believe the team will suddenly be successful next year. It will be the same team plus a rookie. And even really good rookies rarely help right away. Maybe they'll be incrementally better with improvement from Rui, Avdija and the return of Bryant, but let's not kid ourselves. At best, we're an 8th seed, and the likelihood is that we will be worse.

We have to trade Beal unless he extends his existing contract or at least pinky swears that he will resign under a new max deal in 2022.

[NatP4]

The only real solution is to trade Beal this offseason. Then just buy out Westbrook and start over.

That's the conventional wisdom. But Leonsis doesn't wanna trade Beal.

I understood the conventional wisdom. I even could see how they talked themselves into believing that by getting Wall back (or Westbrook as it turned out), the team could get back to their playoff ways. So their decision not to trade Beal up through the start of this season was defensible. And their decision not to trade him at the deadline was understandable because the market was too small.

But now, it's obvious that the team isn't going to win as constructed. The Westbrook/Beal duo is an abject disaster. You know it. I know it. Even management has to know it. There's no reason to believe the team will suddenly be successful next year. It will be the same team plus a rookie. And even really good rookies rarely help right away. Maybe they'll be incrementally better with improvement from Rui, Avdija and the return of Bryant, but let's not kid ourselves. At best, we're an 8th seed, and the likelihood is that we will be worse.

We have to trade Beal unless he extends his existing contract or at least pinky swears that he will resign under a new max deal in 2022.

We could always attach assets to Westbrook and move him. The guy is averaging a triple double.

Beal+Suggs or Beal+Mobley is legit. Gafford is a huge piece. Bryant will be back. Avdija will take off next year. Add that with a new coach instead of the absolute worst coach in the NBA, it’s a completely different story.

[9 and 20]

I'm hoping they score a top pick, hire a new coach, and don't trade Beal. I'm not ready for 4 or 5 years of losing and a complete teardown.

[Rafael122]

I'm hoping they score a top pick, hire a new coach, and don't trade Beal. I'm not ready for 4 or 5 years of losing and a complete teardown.

Truthfully, this is the best way to get better. The issue is convincing Beal that this is the move. Let's say the rumors are true, the Wizards get Masai, they hire a new coach (Kenny Atkinson IDK) and screw it...we land the top pick in the draft. That's Cade Cunningham being added to a roster with Beal, Westbrook, Bryant, Hachimura, Deni and Bertans. That's not a bad top 7. You got Gafford, Hutchinson and as Nate suggested, bringing back Mathews and Neto. It's not a championship contender but with a good coach, a good offensive scheme, etc it's certainly a playoff team. And you still have some money to bring maybe a 3 and D type of guy.

I've tweeted this out but I am hugely in favor of trading Beal to the Pelicans for Brandon Ingram, NAW, Jaxson Hayes and picks. I think things in New Orleans are going to have to come to a head when it comes to choosing between Ingram and Zion. Hayes would be another rim running, rim protector/lob threat and I'm a fan of NAW after seeing him the last handful of games with Ball out. The kid could play.

The other move I would potentially make is trading Russ into the Knicks cap space. I don't think the Knicks are going to be in the running for major free agents, but Westbrook is the type of psycho Thibs loves

[NatP4]

That’s a home run. Masai would make a really good draft pick, and coaching hire as well.

Worst case scenario is missing out on Masai, Sheppard makes the new coaching hire, and we land a 7-8ish pick again. Probably still improve but not by much.

[FAH1223]

What do we give Matthews?

Read on Twitter

[FAH1223]

I'm hoping they score a top pick, hire a new coach, and don't trade Beal. I'm not ready for 4 or 5 years of losing and a complete teardown.

Our last lucky lottery was moving up in 2013...

[nate33]

What do we give Matthews?

Read on Twitter

I'd sign him to that deal in a heartbeat. Heck, I'd sign him to double that deal in a heartbeat. $13.5M over 4 years with the 4th year a team option. Sold!

[pcbothwel]

What do we give Matthews?

Read on Twitter

I'd sign him to that deal in a heartbeat. Heck, I'd sign him to double that deal in a heartbeat. $13.5M over 4 years with the 4th year a team option. Sold!

Agreed.
I think he gets 3/9M when its all said and done

[payitforward]

I'm hoping they score a top pick, hire a new coach, and don't trade Beal....

So do we all!!!!

...I'm not ready for 4 or 5 years of losing and a complete teardown.

The seasoned veteran members of this Board have learned to live with it!

> > >

What can I say? Wizards fan =

[payitforward]

What do we give Matthews?

Read on Twitter

I'd sign him to that deal in a heartbeat. Heck, I'd sign him to double that deal in a heartbeat. $13.5M over 4 years with the 4th year a team option. Sold!

Me too. But... rather not double it all the same! Tho I do think it'll need to be a bit richer than the Moses Brown deal....