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Rui Hachimura

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Re: Rui Hachimura 

Post#1721 » by nate33 » Mon Mar 29, 2021 5:11 pm

dckingsfan wrote:
DCZards wrote:
dckingsfan wrote:This is the most interesting part of this thread. The notion that Rui could eventually be a SF.

It does seem like he can cover SFs on the perimeter. And he rebounds like a wing :wink:

On the offensive side if/when he starts consistently knocking down 3s he would be really good (IMO) as a SF in the offense.

And that brings us to Deni or the "new" PF. Deni rebounds like a PF but doesn't alter or block shots like one. Now, he is 20, so I expect to see the defensive rebounding go up over time.

Either way, it seems like we are going to have the dreaded "redundant" problem with Rui/Avdija. I guess that isn't optimistic though.

I don't ever expect Deni to be good at blocking or altering shots. I don't think he has the hops or quickness for that. But Deni is a good defender who is better suited to defend an interior player like a PF while Rui is quicker and longer and better at defending perimeter players like SFs & SGs.

With respect, Deni needs to get much stronger to defend PFs. And I am not seeing a "quickness" difference at this point. Deni may very well get there (become stronger and he may grow as well). But at this point neither are viable defenders at PF.

Both at this point are below average defenders, IMO. Which takes us back to the redundant/tridundant dilemma.

Rui is absolutely a viable defender at PF. He pretty much shuts down or contains every PF he faces.
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Re: Rui Hachimura 

Post#1722 » by NatP4 » Mon Mar 29, 2021 5:13 pm

nate33 wrote:
NatP4 wrote:Beal was a lot better than Hachimura in his first few seasons and exploded at age 23 (same age as Hachimura currently)

Go look at their numbers. This is a comparison between Rui's 2nd season at age 22, and Beal's 3rd season at age 21
Image

Note that Beal had a TS% of .527 while Rui's is .563. Also factor that Rui is a better defender.

It's easy to forget that Beal really was not very good his first few years. He looked good (like Rui does), but he was pretty ineffective statistically.


In terms of basic counting stats, sure. You’ve gotta pump the brakes on Rui being a good defender. His team/help defense is awful. Every metric on planet earth reflects this. He’s posted some nice shooting% for the last 8 games, that is it.

It’s not a bad thought though. Both of them have/had to transition from shooting mid range shots to 3s.
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Re: Rui Hachimura 

Post#1723 » by NatP4 » Mon Mar 29, 2021 5:24 pm

nate33 wrote:
dckingsfan wrote:
DCZards wrote:I don't ever expect Deni to be good at blocking or altering shots. I don't think he has the hops or quickness for that. But Deni is a good defender who is better suited to defend an interior player like a PF while Rui is quicker and longer and better at defending perimeter players like SFs & SGs.

With respect, Deni needs to get much stronger to defend PFs. And I am not seeing a "quickness" difference at this point. Deni may very well get there (become stronger and he may grow as well). But at this point neither are viable defenders at PF.

Both at this point are below average defenders, IMO. Which takes us back to the redundant/tridundant dilemma.

Rui is absolutely a viable defender at PF. He pretty much shuts down or contains every PF he faces.


At PF you have to be a help defender and be able to contain pick and rolls as the big. Team defense is far more important at the 4&5 positions and Rui is awful in that regard. 1 on 1 defense is such a small element. He also doesn’t protect the rim or alter shots.

He is exactly like Markieff Morris on that end. Non impactful. Shift him out to the 3 and all he has to do is defend on the perimeter or in isolation against post ups after switches.
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Re: Rui Hachimura 

Post#1724 » by nate33 » Mon Mar 29, 2021 5:29 pm

NatP4 wrote:
nate33 wrote:
NatP4 wrote:Beal was a lot better than Hachimura in his first few seasons and exploded at age 23 (same age as Hachimura currently)

Go look at their numbers. This is a comparison between Rui's 2nd season at age 22, and Beal's 3rd season at age 21
Image

Note that Beal had a TS% of .527 while Rui's is .563. Also factor that Rui is a better defender.

It's easy to forget that Beal really was not very good his first few years. He looked good (like Rui does), but he was pretty ineffective statistically.


In terms of basic counting stats, sure. You’ve gotta pump the brakes on Rui being a good defender. His team/help defense is awful. Every metric on planet earth reflects this. He’s posted some nice shooting% for the last 8 games, that is it.

The "every metric on planet earth" you refer to are DRPM and Raptor, both of which use multiple seasons of on/off data. Rui has only been good defensively for about a month now.

Other metrics like his recent on/off numbers point to him helping the team a great deal. Since February 20th, he has the third best on/off rating of anyone on the team who gets minutes, and best among starters:

Image


Over the last 8 games, he leads the team in on/off rating among anyone with a decent sample size

Image
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Re: Rui Hachimura 

Post#1725 » by payitforward » Mon Mar 29, 2021 5:30 pm

nate33 wrote:
payitforward wrote:Over these 7 games, Rui has been about as good as Precious Achiuwa has been overall in his rookie season.

Hachimura over the last 8 games has easily been better than Achiuwa.

Achiuwa is a low usage garbage man who does nothing but rim run, averaging 15 points and 10 boards per 36, and he does it against the opposition's backup players for 13 minutes a night. And despite that, his TS% is just .565 and he turns the ball over 3.1 times per 36 minutes. His on/off differential is -8.7.

Hachimura is averaging 18 and 8 with a TS% north of 61% as a 3rd option scorer against the opposition's starters for 37 minutes a night and he doesn't turn the ball over. His on/off over that stretch is about +8.0,

nate, respectfully, you seem to be mixing up subjects. If you want to say that Rui is more talented than Precious, that's one thing. & level of opposition is a fair point in that regard.

But, I'm simply talking about overall production. Numbers per 40 minutes assessed using a time-tested weighting system. Moreover, since Precious is having a very good rookie season, I was praising Rui not criticizing him! "Not as good as Hunter but as good as Precious" -- that's an area I'd be really happy to see Rui move into. It would be an enormous jump from where he's been.

Above all, whatever adjustment you want to make for level of competition, whatever point you want to make with a quasi-indicator like on/off, in fact whatever you want to say... FIRST you look at the numbers.

Once you look at the numbers & you see that -- on the season as a whole -- Rui's numbers aren't in a class with Achiuwa's (except in scoring where the two are virtually identical), then you can start explaining the difference. Or should I say "explaining away" the difference.

Rui is a talented kid who may some day be a good NBA player. His run of 7 games was nice to see. He didn't play well vs. Detroit -- for example, he didn't have nearly as good a night as Deni Avdija, & Deni wasn't anything special -- but that's just a single game.

One thing is for sure: what matters with Rui -- as I've said a zillion times -- is improvement & nothing else. Why? Because if he doesn't improve regularly & for quite a while, he'll never be a good NBA player. Period.
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Re: Rui Hachimura 

Post#1726 » by nate33 » Mon Mar 29, 2021 5:35 pm

payitforward wrote:Above all, whatever adjustment you want to make for level of competition, whatever point you want to make with a quasi-indicator like on/off, in fact whatever you want to say... FIRST you look at the numbers.

Once you look at the numbers & you see that -- on the season as a whole -- Rui's numbers aren't in a class with Achiuwa's (except in scoring where the two are virtually identical), then you can start explaining the difference. Or should I say "explaining away" the difference..

How in the heck are Rui's numbers (over the last 8 games) not in the same class as Achiuwa's? Rui scores more with higher efficiency and fewer turnovers. Those 2 extra rebounds that Precious gets, as a center, do not offset Rui's scoring and efficiency. You know as well as I do that centers get many more opportunities to rebound by virtue of the position they play.
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Re: Rui Hachimura 

Post#1727 » by NatP4 » Mon Mar 29, 2021 5:37 pm

nate33 wrote:
NatP4 wrote:
nate33 wrote:Go look at their numbers. This is a comparison between Rui's 2nd season at age 22, and Beal's 3rd season at age 21
Image

Note that Beal had a TS% of .527 while Rui's is .563. Also factor that Rui is a better defender.

It's easy to forget that Beal really was not very good his first few years. He looked good (like Rui does), but he was pretty ineffective statistically.


In terms of basic counting stats, sure. You’ve gotta pump the brakes on Rui being a good defender. His team/help defense is awful. Every metric on planet earth reflects this. He’s posted some nice shooting% for the last 8 games, that is it.

The "every metric on planet earth" you refer to are DRPM and Raptor, both of which use multiple seasons of on/off data. Rui has only been good defensively for about a month now.

Other metrics like his recent on/off numbers point to him helping the team a great deal. Since February 20th, he has the third best on/off rating of anyone on the team who gets minutes, and best among starters:

Image


Over the last 8 games, he leads the team in on/off rating among anyone with a decent sample size

Image


That exact screenshot shows that he has a higher defensive rating than everyone but Beal&Mathews
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Re: Rui Hachimura 

Post#1728 » by NatP4 » Mon Mar 29, 2021 5:55 pm

For the record, in his age 21 season (2 years younger than Rui currently) Bradley Beal was 3rd on the wiz in on/off differential, behind Wall&Gortat at +7.7.

Side note looking at these numbers: Wall used to be really good at defense.
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Re: Rui Hachimura 

Post#1729 » by DCZards » Mon Mar 29, 2021 6:04 pm

payitforward wrote:
Rui is a talented kid who may some day be a good NBA player. His run of 7 games was nice to see. He didn't play well vs. Detroit -- for example, he didn't have nearly as good a night as Deni Avdija, & Deni wasn't anything special -- but that's just a single game.

I’m curious, pif. Did you see the 4th quarter of the Detroit game?

Rui was clutch in the 4th...when Beal was out and the game was on the line.
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Re: Rui Hachimura 

Post#1730 » by wall_glizzy » Mon Mar 29, 2021 6:12 pm

nate33 wrote:
payitforward wrote:Above all, whatever adjustment you want to make for level of competition, whatever point you want to make with a quasi-indicator like on/off, in fact whatever you want to say... FIRST you look at the numbers.

Once you look at the numbers & you see that -- on the season as a whole -- Rui's numbers aren't in a class with Achiuwa's (except in scoring where the two are virtually identical), then you can start explaining the difference. Or should I say "explaining away" the difference..

How in the heck are Rui's numbers (over the last 8 games) not in the same class as Achiuwa's? Rui scores more with higher efficiency and fewer turnovers. Those 2 extra rebounds that Precious gets, as a center, do not offset Rui's scoring and efficiency. You know as well as I do that centers get many more opportunities to rebound by virtue of the position they play.


Nate, the weighting system is time-tested. The game has always been, and always will be, about buckets offensive rebounds.
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Re: Rui Hachimura 

Post#1731 » by nate33 » Mon Mar 29, 2021 6:20 pm

NatP4 wrote:That exact screenshot shows that he has a higher defensive rating than everyone but Beal&Mathews

No it doesn't.

The first screenshot (showing since Feb 20th), shows the team with a DefRtg of 111.0 with Rui on the floor. Ignoring the low minute guys, that's lower than everyone but Lopez (107.0) and Westbrook (110.3).

The second screenshot (last 8 games), shows the team with a DefRtg of 109.6 with Rui on the floor. Ignoring the low minute guys, that's better than everyone but Lopez and Neto.

And notably, Rui is going against the other starters. Lopez and Neto have the advantage of having to defend the opposition's backups.
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Re: Rui Hachimura 

Post#1732 » by Kanyewest » Mon Mar 29, 2021 6:32 pm

nate33 wrote:
NatP4 wrote:Beal was a lot better than Hachimura in his first few seasons and exploded at age 23 (same age as Hachimura currently)

Go look at their numbers. This is a comparison between Rui's 2nd season at age 22, and Beal's 3rd season at age 21
Image

Note that Beal had a TS% of .527 while Rui's is .563. Also factor that Rui is a better defender.

It's easy to forget that Beal really was not very good his first few years. He looked good (like Rui does), but he was pretty ineffective statistically.


The average TS% for the league in Beal's 3rd season was 53.4%. With Beal's TS% that season that would have been good enough for 21st in the league (https://www.nba.com/stats/teams/advanced/?dir=-1&Season=2014-15&SeasonType=Regular%20Season&sort=TS_PCT)

I'm not sure what the average is for this season, but Rui's average would have been good enough for 22nd in the league. https://www.nba.com/stats/teams/advanced/?dir=-1&Season=2020-21&SeasonType=Regular%20Season&sort=TS_PCT

That being said, Beal did fill out more in the playoffs early on his career so he showed more promise especially in a win share per 48- outperforming his regular season numbers. Power forwards should have higher field goal percentages and Rui also takes fewer shots per game than Bradley Beal considering he's the 3rd option (arguably the 4th option when Bryant was in the lineup) whereas Beal was the 2nd option earlier on in his career (not to mention the lack of spacing with Nene/Gortat lineups).

Also Beal was an ok defender if IIRC, Rui's defense stands out more because the 2021 Wizards are one of the worst defensive teams while the 2014-15 Wizards were still an above average defensive team.
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Re: Rui Hachimura 

Post#1733 » by nate33 » Mon Mar 29, 2021 6:37 pm

Kanyewest wrote:
nate33 wrote:
NatP4 wrote:Beal was a lot better than Hachimura in his first few seasons and exploded at age 23 (same age as Hachimura currently)

Go look at their numbers. This is a comparison between Rui's 2nd season at age 22, and Beal's 3rd season at age 21
Image

Note that Beal had a TS% of .527 while Rui's is .563. Also factor that Rui is a better defender.

It's easy to forget that Beal really was not very good his first few years. He looked good (like Rui does), but he was pretty ineffective statistically.


The average TS% for the league in Beal's 3rd season was 53.4%. With Beal's TS% that season that would have been good enough for 21st in the league (https://www.nba.com/stats/teams/advanced/?dir=-1&Season=2014-15&SeasonType=Regular%20Season&sort=TS_PCT)

I'm not sure what the average is for this season, but Rui's average would have been good enough for 22nd in the league. https://www.nba.com/stats/teams/advanced/?dir=-1&Season=2020-21&SeasonType=Regular%20Season&sort=TS_PCT

That being said, Beal did fill out more in the playoffs early on his career so he showed more promise especially in a win share per 48- outperforming his regular season numbers. Power forwards should have higher field goal percentages and Rui also takes fewer shots per game than Bradley Beal considering he's the 3rd option (arguably the 4th option when Bryant was in the lineup) whereas Beal was the 2nd option earlier on in his career (not to mention the lack of spacing with Nene/Gortat lineups).

Also Beal was an ok defender if IIRC, Rui's defense stands out more because the 2021 Wizards are one of the worst defensive teams while the 2014-15 Wizards were still an above average defensive team.

Fair points. It should also be noted that that same logic applies to their disparity in DRtg. DRtg's are way up too, so Rui isn't much worse than average.
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Re: Rui Hachimura 

Post#1734 » by NatP4 » Mon Mar 29, 2021 6:37 pm

nate33 wrote:
NatP4 wrote:That exact screenshot shows that he has a higher defensive rating than everyone but Beal&Mathews

No it doesn't.

The first screenshot (showing since Feb 20th), shows the team with a DefRtg of 111.0 with Rui on the floor. Ignoring the low minute guys, that's lower than everyone but Lopez (107.0) and Westbrook (110.3).

The second screenshot (last 8 games), shows the team with a DefRtg of 109.6 with Rui on the floor. Ignoring the low minute guys, that's better than everyone but Lopez and Neto.

And notably, Rui is going against the other starters. Lopez and Neto have the advantage of having to defend the opposition's backups.


Obviously, an 8 game sample size is close to meaningless, an 18 game sample size is almost as meaningless, but you are excluding players even still. Bertans, Brown, and Bonga all have defensive ratings that are lower in the first image. He’s one point better than Avdija and Wagner.

On the season as a whole, Rui has a worse on/of differential for defensive rating than everyone besides Beal and Pasecniks, which is absolutely terrible. In 2019-2020 same story, only ranked above Isaiah Thomas and Beal.

I’m gonna roll with the with 85 game sample size instead of 8 games.
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Re: Rui Hachimura 

Post#1735 » by nate33 » Mon Mar 29, 2021 6:51 pm

NatP4 wrote:
nate33 wrote:
NatP4 wrote:That exact screenshot shows that he has a higher defensive rating than everyone but Beal&Mathews

No it doesn't.

The first screenshot (showing since Feb 20th), shows the team with a DefRtg of 111.0 with Rui on the floor. Ignoring the low minute guys, that's lower than everyone but Lopez (107.0) and Westbrook (110.3).

The second screenshot (last 8 games), shows the team with a DefRtg of 109.6 with Rui on the floor. Ignoring the low minute guys, that's better than everyone but Lopez and Neto.

And notably, Rui is going against the other starters. Lopez and Neto have the advantage of having to defend the opposition's backups.


Obviously, an 8 game sample size is close to meaningless, an 18 game sample size is almost as meaningless, but you are excluding players even still. Bertans, Brown, and Bonga all have defensive ratings that are lower in the first image. He’s one point better than Avdija and Wagner.

On the season as a whole, Rui has a worse on/of differential for defensive rating than everyone besides Beal and Pasecniks, which is absolutely terrible. In 2019-2020 same story, only ranked above Isaiah Thomas and Beal.

I’m gonna roll with the with 85 game sample size instead of 8 games.

Cool. Roll with the sample size that includes him as a rookie when very few rookie bigs ever play good defense, and ignore the fact that he has clearly been playing much better defense lately. Also ignore that he is now 4th best on the team in on/off differential among all players who have at least 400 minutes played. He's also the second best starter going by on/off differential, behind only Beal.
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Re: Rui Hachimura 

Post#1736 » by NatP4 » Mon Mar 29, 2021 6:59 pm

nate33 wrote:
NatP4 wrote:
nate33 wrote:No it doesn't.

The first screenshot (showing since Feb 20th), shows the team with a DefRtg of 111.0 with Rui on the floor. Ignoring the low minute guys, that's lower than everyone but Lopez (107.0) and Westbrook (110.3).

The second screenshot (last 8 games), shows the team with a DefRtg of 109.6 with Rui on the floor. Ignoring the low minute guys, that's better than everyone but Lopez and Neto.

And notably, Rui is going against the other starters. Lopez and Neto have the advantage of having to defend the opposition's backups.


Obviously, an 8 game sample size is close to meaningless, an 18 game sample size is almost as meaningless, but you are excluding players even still. Bertans, Brown, and Bonga all have defensive ratings that are lower in the first image. He’s one point better than Avdija and Wagner.

On the season as a whole, Rui has a worse on/of differential for defensive rating than everyone besides Beal and Pasecniks, which is absolutely terrible. In 2019-2020 same story, only ranked above Isaiah Thomas and Beal.

I’m gonna roll with the with 85 game sample size instead of 8 games.

Cool. Roll with the sample size that includes him as a rookie when very few rookie bigs ever play good defense, and ignore the fact that he has clearly been playing much better defense lately. Also ignore that he is now 4th best on the team in on/off differential among all players who have at least 400 minutes played. He's also the second best starter going by on/off differential, behind only Beal.



Players that have a better on/off than Hachimura in 2020-2021:

1. Ish Smith
2. Mo Wagner
3. Davis Bertans
4. Deni Avdija
5. Thomas Bryant
6. Bradley Beal
7. Isaac Bonga
8. Robin Lopez
9. Troy Brown Jr
10. Alex Len
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Re: Rui Hachimura 

Post#1737 » by nate33 » Mon Mar 29, 2021 7:06 pm

NatP4 wrote:Players that have a better on/off than Hachimura in 2020-2021:

1. Ish Smith
2. Mo Wagner
3. Davis Bertans
4. Deni Avdija
5. Thomas Bryant
6. Bradley Beal
7. Isaac Bonga
8. Robin Lopez
9. Troy Brown Jr
10. Alex Len


This is false

Image

Only 7 guys have a higher on/off differential, and four of them haven't even played 400 total minutes so their differentials are heavily influenced by garbage time in games out of contention against third stringers.

The only guys with at least 400 minutes played (or 500 if you'd prefer a nice round number) with a better on/off differential are Bertans, Avdija and Beal. He is doing better than Neto, Lopez, Len, Mathews and Westbrook.

And as I've pointed out several times now, Rui is getting substantially better as the season wears on. He used to be at -5.0 rather than +1.3.
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Re: Rui Hachimura 

Post#1738 » by DCZards » Mon Mar 29, 2021 7:07 pm

NatP4 wrote:
Players that have a better on/off than Hachimura in 2020-2021:

1. Ish Smith
2. Mo Wagner
3. Davis Bertans
4. Deni Avdija
5. Thomas Bryant
6. Bradley Beal
7. Isaac Bonga
8. Robin Lopez
9. Troy Brown Jr
10. Alex Len

That’s a useless list.
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Re: Rui Hachimura 

Post#1739 » by NatP4 » Mon Mar 29, 2021 7:16 pm

nate33 wrote:
NatP4 wrote:Players that have a better on/off than Hachimura in 2020-2021:

1. Ish Smith
2. Mo Wagner
3. Davis Bertans
4. Deni Avdija
5. Thomas Bryant
6. Bradley Beal
7. Isaac Bonga
8. Robin Lopez
9. Troy Brown Jr
10. Alex Len


This is false

Image

Only 7 guys have a higher on/off differential, and four of them haven't even played 400 total minutes so their differentials are heavily influenced by garbage time in games out of contention against third stringers.

The only guys with at least 400 minutes played (or 500 if you'd prefer a nice round number) with a better on/off differential are Bertans, Avdija and Beal. He is doing better than Neto, Lopez, Len, Mathews and Westbrook.

And as I've pointed out several times now, Rui is getting substantially better as the season wears on. He used to be at -5.0 rather than +1.3.



https://www.nba.com/stats/team/1610612764/onoffcourt-summary/?sort=DIFF_NET_RATING&dir=1

Not sure why NBA.com is different, maybe they update later?
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Re: Rui Hachimura 

Post#1740 » by NatP4 » Mon Mar 29, 2021 7:19 pm

DCZards wrote:
NatP4 wrote:
Players that have a better on/off than Hachimura in 2020-2021:

1. Ish Smith
2. Mo Wagner
3. Davis Bertans
4. Deni Avdija
5. Thomas Bryant
6. Bradley Beal
7. Isaac Bonga
8. Robin Lopez
9. Troy Brown Jr
10. Alex Len

That’s a useless list.


Tell that to Nate. He was using the list to make a point.

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