GSW trade Wiggins for a TPE

[Chris Porter's Hair]

Self quote, looked up a few (and tbh I'd probably argue $30M, as if he were paid 3/50 I wouldn't like it either). But:

Crabbe was owed $18.5M total and dumped for a first that ended up 17th a year later, and he was expiring.

Harkless was dumped by Portland for Whiteside in the Butler sign and trade for an unprotected first and owed a total of about $10M iirc.

So if you'd put it at $30M (I'd say more), that's like half price. Which probably puts it lotto range at best I'd say, but a pick around 20 doesn't seem like it'd do it for me at all. He's one of the worst contracts in the league.

Thanks for looking into it. They are some interesting comparisons. I think you have to remember that Wiggins is still a young player that a team may want to try out before re-signing as well. I think it's a bit hard to judge, maybe GSW pick this year is the one.

They owe it to OKC if its 21 or later.

But at this point I can't agree with this at all. He's got 3 years left, that's something to do with an expiring like Oladipo. And he is what he is, you can't really sell him on potential when he was drafted the same year as a guy like Embiid or Aaron Gordon, he is what he is, and he's paid a max salary for it.

That's what everyone said before this season. Then he started playing all-NBA defense while much of the trade board was describing him as one of the worst defenders in the league, shooting 47.3% from the floor when he's never shot above 45.9% before, and shooting 39.3% on 3's when he's never shot above 35.6% before.

I guess if you want to say he's not defined by his play on a basketball court, yes, he is what he is.

[zimpy27]

Thanks for looking into it. They are some interesting comparisons. I think you have to remember that Wiggins is still a young player that a team may want to try out before re-signing as well. I think it's a bit hard to judge, maybe GSW pick this year is the one.

They owe it to OKC if its 21 or later.

But at this point I can't agree with this at all. He's got 3 years left, that's something to do with an expiring like Oladipo. And he is what he is, you can't really sell him on potential when he was drafted the same year as a guy like Embiid or Aaron Gordon, he is what he is, and he's paid a max salary for it.

That's what everyone said before this season. Then he started playing all-NBA defense while much of the trade board was describing him as one of the worst defenders in the league, shooting 47.3% from the floor when he's never shot above 45.9% before, and shooting 39.3% on 3's when he's never shot above 35.6% before.

I guess if you want to say he's not defined by his play on a basketball court, yes, he is what he is.

Wiggins has been a massive disappointment in Minny and his career generally. I think it's hard to see past that for a lot of posters, people just don't trust him.

Objectively though, you are right. He's been a great 3 and D player this season. $30m overpaid on his contract left but still a solid addition to a team.

[bondom34]

Thanks for looking into it. They are some interesting comparisons. I think you have to remember that Wiggins is still a young player that a team may want to try out before re-signing as well. I think it's a bit hard to judge, maybe GSW pick this year is the one.

They owe it to OKC if its 21 or later.

But at this point I can't agree with this at all. He's got 3 years left, that's something to do with an expiring like Oladipo. And he is what he is, you can't really sell him on potential when he was drafted the same year as a guy like Embiid or Aaron Gordon, he is what he is, and he's paid a max salary for it.

That's what everyone said before this season. Then he started playing all-NBA defense while much of the trade board was describing him as one of the worst defenders in the league, shooting 47.3% from the floor when he's never shot above 45.9% before, and shooting 39.3% on 3's when he's never shot above 35.6% before.

I guess if you want to say he's not defined by his play on a basketball court, yes, he is what he is.

He's been the same player this season as every other season by most any measure.

I've done this elsewhere. But:

From his last bunch of years, all his impact metrics remain pretty well in line at a quick glance. BBall index's metric for his past:



This year:


Single year RAPM:


Single year LA-RAPM:


3 year RAPM:


3 year LA-RAPM:



BPM the same. He's varied in efficiency but hovered from like -5 TS to league average most of his career.

Edit: And not saying any impact metrics are the be all end all, but just not really seeing anything from anywhere that's terribly out of line with his career overall, from an outside POV. Seems pretty consistent with the Wolves days.

He's the same guy, with a new jersey. In fact, this not only isn't terribly out of line, it's not even his best overall season by most means if any. So yeah, gonna say its the jersey because nothing else seems much different.

[Resistance]

Wiggins

.............................Net Rating
2014-15 Minnesota...........-1.8...
2015-16 Minnesota...........+6.6...
2016-17 Minnesota...........+3.1...
2017-18 Minnesota...........+4.1...
2018-19 Minnesota...........+1.4...
2019-20 Minnesota...........+0.8...
2019-20 Golden State........-1.4...
202--21 Golden State........-5.8...


ESPN Real Plus Minus - Small Forward

2020-21 Real Plus-Minus - Small Forwards


NAME.......TEAM............ORPM....DRPM.....RPM.....WINS
Wiggins....Golden State....#49......#23.......#36.......#23

[Chris Porter's Hair]

Great. Then don't worry about it, don't believe it, and stop trying to trade him from our team. We'll keep him.

[Texas Chuck]

And Texas Chuck quotes a comment, agreeing that this thread is wildly premature at best, then goes on to describe how it will end with the Warriors trading Curry.

That is the wildest possible misinterpretation of what I said. But I do love how you reference me in almost every post. Makes me feel heard and loved.

[bondom34]

Great. Then don't worry about it, don't believe it, and stop trying to trade him from our team. We'll keep him.

I'm not OP. And I said this is premature.

But yeah, he's the same guy. They just have the same problem the Wolves have. Now if the Warriors want to swap him for another bad deal and/or the Wolves pick, sure. But otherwise they're sorta stuck.

[5paceman]

And Texas Chuck quotes a comment, agreeing that this thread is wildly premature at best, then goes on to describe how it will end with the Warriors trading Curry.

That is the wildest possible misinterpretation of what I said. But I do love how you reference me in almost every post. Makes me feel heard and loved.

Gonna have to check your math on that, but how is that the wildest misinterp? You are in every thread, probably the biggest thread creator and commenter in here? I agree with you when I do agree. But from what I've seen thus far you often aren't close.

[Texas Chuck]

I said under certain circumstances the Warriors would go to Curry and give him the option of a trade if he wanted one because they couldn't build a contender.

That is not me saying a Wiggins trade leads to a Curry trade at all lol.

[Resistance]

Great. Then don't worry about it, don't believe it, and stop trying to trade him from our team. We'll keep him.

Not sure who your response is aimed at, but from time to time a Wiggins thread in Trades & Transactions has been started by one of your people (Golden State partisan).



I don't remember you being in ancient Wiggins threads, so will mention something that has been brought up in past discussions.

There is no disputing that Golden State is one of the few teams that can financially carry Wiggins as a #3 or #4 (pecking order) for the Minnesota first. But the other side of that coin is that it becomes extremely difficult to almost impossible to trade him without compensation attached unless Golden State improves him enough to be a #2 on a team with normal financial resources.

Teams that won't flinch much if at all in regards to paying Luxury Tax:

* Lakers
* Clippers
* Brooklyn
* Knicks
* Golden State


Other teams are willing to pay Luxury Tax when they have the right situation in regards to being a contender, but most (if not all) of them aren't going to be interested in consolidating/aggregating the low cost contracts of their role players so they can trade for Wiggins to be their #3 or #4 (pecking order). If they did that trade, then they would have multiple slots in their rotation to fill and it might not be easy to get the right players because they would no longer have enough salary left on the roster to make additional mid sized and larger trades. With Wiggins as the #3 or #4 (pecking order), the team would probably be a Luxury Tax payer as well and would have the smaller Taxpayer MLE rather than the larger Non Taxpayer MLE to offer free agents.


Using the order at Tankathon

Minnesota -- Been there and done that with Wiggins

Houston -- In a rebuild

Detroit -- In a rebuild

Orlando -- In a rebuild

Cleveland -- In a rebuild

Washington -- Not sure where they are at in the rebuild - contender cycle, but Westbrook for Wiggins + filler is probably a nonstarter for the Warriors

Toronto -- In either a rebuild or a quick turnaround, but should be looking for a #1 or #2 type of player which isn't Wiggins. They already have some players to slot in at lower tiers on a roster.

OKC -- In a rebuild

Chicago -- Has Vucevic and LaVine to slot in at #1 and #2. The owner has a history of being frugal, so consolidating smaller contracts in a trade for Wiggins doesn't seem to be something they would do.

New Orleans -- Has settled for now on Zion & Ingram to be their #1 and #2 players. A smaller market, so not expecting them to be eager to pay luxury tax.

Indiana -- They seem to have limits in regards to spending.

Sacramento -- Smaller market and a trade for Wiggins with either Hield or Barnes as the main outgoing salary would seem to be a lateral move at best for them.

Golden State --

Memphis -- Smaller market

Boston -- Kemba Walker for Wiggins is probably a nonstarter for the Warriors

Miami -- Wiggins doesn't come across as a Riley type of player

Atlanta -- Collins will need a new contract, so not seeing them taking on Wiggins unless they have both Gallinari and Bogdan
Bogdanović going out. Young will need a new contract in summer 2022, so it is awkward to fit Wiggins into their salary structure and stay out of luxury tax

New York -- They are showing more financial discipline than in the past. Probably not for a repeat of Thibodeau - Wiggins.

Charlotte -- Wiggins as their highest paid player doesn't seem right for a small market team

San Antonio -- There was a recent thread about this and most thought that it was something the Spurs wouldn't/shouldn't do

Dallas -- Setting their sights higher than Wiggins this coming offseason. Luka will need a new contract in summer 2022

Denver -- Seems to have Murray, Jokic, Porter and Gordon as their top four players. The owner has been frugal in the past, so not seeing them bringing in Wiggins to be their role player.

Portland -- Powell is expected to opt out of his contract, so they could be a luxury tax payer before even considering a trade for Wiggins. McCollum for Wiggins seems unlikely from the Portland POV.

Milwaukee -- Has Giannis, Middleton and Holiday (new contract) as their top three. Smaller market and did some salary cutting moves before the recent trade deadline.

Lakers -- Schroder might neeed a large salary in a Sign & Trade to make the numbers work and the hard cap will prevent Golden State from taking in Schroder in a Sign & Trade. Bringing in a third team for a large Schroder Sign & Trade could be difficult to pull off and the Lakers would still need to acquire a PG/playmaker type. Keeping the much cheaper Kuzma seems the safer play than trading for Wiggins. Being in the same division will tend to have both teams reluctant to make a trade with each other.

Clippers -- Being in the same division will tend to have both teams reluctant to make a trade with each other. Golden State will probably be reluctant to trade for Kennard and the Clippers should be looking for a guard to replace/upgrade Beverley

Brooklyn -- Already has a large payroll.

Phoenix -- Being in the same division will tend to have both teams reluctant to make a trade with each other. They are doing well as currently configured, so not seeing them eager to make major changes. The owner also has a reputation for being frugal.

Philadelphia -- They are doing well as currently configured, so not seeing them eager to make major changes

Utah -- They are doing well as currently configured, so not seeing them eager to make major changes

[Warriors Analyst]

They owe it to OKC if its 21 or later.

But at this point I can't agree with this at all. He's got 3 years left, that's something to do with an expiring like Oladipo. And he is what he is, you can't really sell him on potential when he was drafted the same year as a guy like Embiid or Aaron Gordon, he is what he is, and he's paid a max salary for it.

That's what everyone said before this season. Then he started playing all-NBA defense while much of the trade board was describing him as one of the worst defenders in the league, shooting 47.3% from the floor when he's never shot above 45.9% before, and shooting 39.3% on 3's when he's never shot above 35.6% before.

I guess if you want to say he's not defined by his play on a basketball court, yes, he is what he is.

He's been the same player this season as every other season by most any measure.

I've done this elsewhere. But:

From his last bunch of years, all his impact metrics remain pretty well in line at a quick glance. BBall index's metric for his past:



This year:


Single year RAPM:


Single year LA-RAPM:


3 year RAPM:


3 year LA-RAPM:



BPM the same. He's varied in efficiency but hovered from like -5 TS to league average most of his career.

Edit: And not saying any impact metrics are the be all end all, but just not really seeing anything from anywhere that's terribly out of line with his career overall, from an outside POV. Seems pretty consistent with the Wolves days.

He's the same guy, with a new jersey. In fact, this not only isn't terribly out of line, it's not even his best overall season by most means if any. So yeah, gonna say its the jersey because nothing else seems much different.

So here's something I've been thinking a lot about: how different is Wiggins' offensive role this year from his TWolves days with KAT? It's widely known and accepted that Wiggins is overpaid and is not a great offensive player, in part because of fluctuating aggression, a weak handle, and an inconsistent jumpshot. I will not dispute any of that.

But I think this Warriors team is offensively a lot closer to the KAT TWolves than they are to the Warriors of yore. It's well documented that Wiggins ranks very poorly by the impact metrics as a first or second option. Hell, even his year as a third option with the Butler Wolves he ranked poorly, although I'm inclined to think that Wiggins' bad jumper + Thibs being a very rudimentary offensive coach and sticking Wiggins in the corner was a terrible idea. So is it any surprise that Wiggins impact numbers on offense are pretty much in line with his Wolves days if he's basically playing the same role: 2nd option to a 99th percentile shooter at their position with little to no spacing around them?

I think most of us can agree that Wiggins would look a lot better if Klay was on the Warriors. Prior to Klay's injury, I expected something around 18-20 points a game, 4 boards, 3-4 assists (more on that later) on 48/37/70 ish splits. I'm surprised to say, that's more or less what we're getting, minus two assists and plus two percentage points on his 3 ball. There's two things that I thought would be a lot better this year that really haven't been, in large part because of Kerr's coaching/the Warriors' spacing: Wiggins' 2P% and his assists.

I ran some numbers a while back and in the games without Wiseman (many of which have also been without Paschall), Wiggins shoots 54% 2P. As a point of reference, that's actually higher than what Steph shot in 2014-15 and 2016-17. That's only two points short of what KD is doing this year. It's not elite, but it's pretty damn solid. In games with Wiseman, that number goes down to 52% ish. On the season, Wiggins is at 51.6% on 2P%, which is a career high, but only half a percentage point above what he did the two years prior.

There's some obvious room for growth here and I think that number should be higher for a few reasons. I'm inclined to think that Wiggins playing in a quasi-motion system with lots of sets where he can get opportunistic cuts has bumped up his 2P% ever so slightly. I expected Wiggins to be at least at 54% on 2P with Klay healthy, which is what he's doing without Wiseman. Assuming some improvement from Wiseman, additional shooting next year on the roster, 20-25 minutes of Klay for 75% of the year, there's no reason Wiggins can't bump that number up to 56% ish, which is really good 2P efficiency.

But there's some deep issues with this Warriors team. Some of it is roster construction. Some of it is Kerr. Last night's game against the Bulls was very encouraging because it seems, hopefully, like it marked a turning point in Kerr deciding to... actually play his best players and commit to running PNR. As it stands, we only have 2 guys who play >20 minutes and shoot it at or above league average from three: Steph and Wiggins. And let's be real, does anyone believe Wiggins is a true 39% shooter? There's a very well documented Steph bump that ancillary players get on their 3P% when they're on the Warriors, although Oubre is seemingly immune to that Steph bump. But the point I'm making is that I don't think you're going to see defenders go over a screen on a Wiggins PNR anytime soon or close out with the fear of God when he shoots it in the corner.

Damion Lee and Mychal Mulder shoot 39% and 39.6% from three, but they've been in and out of the rotation -- more on that later -- and they're really the only two other pure shooters on this team. Bazemore is sitting at 39.3%, but his shots are mostly in the corners and he's very streaky. Poole is now a part of the rotation and though his average minutes are sitting at 17, he's going to be a 20-25 minute player for the rest of the season and he's a legitimate shooter, albeit a high volume and therefore high variance gunner.

Meanwhile, Kelly Oubre has been hovering at 30% for most of the last two months, Eric Paschall, who was mercifully excised from the rotation right before the trade deadline shoots it at 32%, Wiseman shoots it at 33% and has mostly stopped shooting them after shooting them a lot in the beginning of the season, and Wanamaker was shooting at 21.3%. Draymond's shooting issues are well documented. Wiggins/Paschall has a 99.8 ORTG and -8.4 net rating on 388 minutes this year, Wiggins/Wiseman 97.5 ORTG and -14.4 net rating in 496 minutes, Wiggins/Oubre 104.7 ORTG and -5.2 net rating on 889 minutes this year, Wiggins/Wanamaker 101.3 ORTG and -0.7 net rating in 400 minutes this year. There's a lot of noise in these numbers, obviously Wiggins/Oubre are getting a lot of numbers with the starters, Wiggins/Paschall is mostly a bench lineup, and Wiggins/Wiseman spent a lot of time in that starting lineup that was getting pummeled in the 1st quarters to start the season until Looney got his starting spot back.

But my point here is that Kerr has spent about 50 games trying to find lineup combos that make sense while trying to balance the egos and feelings of our prized rookie, Wiseman, our TPE get and potential FA returnee, Oubre, and the guy who scored the most points for us last year, Paschall. There have been some truly awful lineups getting big minutes and Kerr's decisions have been... maddening, to say the least. Defense has been overemphasized at the expense of floor spacing and while we nominally have a top 5 defense, good teams have made that defense look terrible. Lee and Mulder have been in and out of the rotation and pretty much every time Kerr has made a change to the rotation, they've been the ones getting less minutes as a result.

Paschall finally got pulled from the rotation, which bumped up Oubre to the backup 4 (thank god!) and should have happened a while back. Paschall/Wiseman has a -23.6 net rating in 96 minutes, Paschall/Oubre has a -19.3 net rating in 275 minutes, Paschall/Poole has a -13.9 net rating in 137 minutes, Paschall/Looney is -13.7 in 93 minutes, Paschall/Wanamaker was -8.6 in 417 minutes, Paschall/Wiggins is -8.4 in 388 minutes. There's only 4 Paschall two man combos with positive net ratings: Paschall/Steph, Paschall/Dray, Paschall/Mulder, and Paschall/Bazemore. His presence makes the rotation complicated because he's a non-shooting 4 who is best as a small ball 5 who gets to ISO over and over again. That obviously clashes with Wiggins and Oubre and Wiseman (and to a lesser extent Dray, but it's not really relevant because Draymond and Paschall have only ever really played together in closing lineups with Steph where Paschall isn't going ISO ball), all of whom are mediocre shooters who don't have the highest IQ's.

On top of that, Kerr decided to kibosh Wanamaker, which thrilled Warriors fans because we assumed Poole would get to run point guard next to Damion Lee or Bazemore and instead... Kerr was reluctant to give Poole ball handling duties and put in Nico Mannion at PG. Nico is up to 40% on threes in a small sample size, but he can't finish or shoot in the midrange, so defenses still don't respect him and he's a terrible defender right now. Kerr's big rotational adjustment managed to take out Wanamaker, our worst offensive player, and somehow make our offense and defense worse and teams went zone against our bench lineups and carving them up on the other end. Wiggins was the first one to get run next to Poole/Mannion until Steve decided to try Oubre in those lineups. Their net rating was -3.9 in 28 minutes, but um... they had a 82.2 ORTG, which would be 30 points below league average. It's a terrible fit for Wiggins, who is best with the ball in his hands next to shooters and the results were predictably bad: defenses don't guard Mannion with respect and Wiggins isn't respected as a floor spacer and now you have two guys above Wiggins in the ball handling hierarchy.

It was literally only last night that Kerr did what a lot of us have been begging for and let Poole run the second unit as the point guard and went small with Lee, Baze, and Oubre as the 2/3/4. Poole had a meh game and bricked a bunch of threes, but the rejiggered rotations kept Wiggins and Oubre apart for about 12 minutes and gave Wiggins additional minutes with Steph and Bazemore (lineups with Bazemore and the starters generally perform pretty well, much better with Looney and much worse with Wiseman though). And the best thing Kerr did last night was commit to running a lot of PNR, which usually consist of 18% of our offensive possessions. Last night the number was 40% and this was our depth chart:

Steph/Poole/Mannion
Oubre/Lee/Mulder
Wiggins/Bazemore
Green/Oubre
Wiseman/Looney/Green

Wiggins played really well last night and had 21 points and 5 assists. At this point I know better than to expect any consistency in his shooting or claim that he's turned a corner as a shooter. What's important to me is the efficiency and passing. When Kerr plays shooters and lets Wiggins PNR or ISO at the top of the key, he looks a lot better. Not $35 million better, but a totally useful offensive player. When Kerr does not play shooters, those Wiggins PNR and ISO's stall out and we get a barrage of lame ass stepbacks and futile drives into traffic (anecdotally, I've noticed that Wiggins gets a very tough whistle when drives to the hoop and draws contact and I've wondered if that's put him off of driving). And somehow, Wiggins is shooting a career high 2P% while taking less shots from less than three feet (albeit on a career high 69%) and less free throws than he ever has. I truly believe that's an issue with the scheme and Kerr's rotations.

It does seem that Kerr is fully committed to Oubre as the backup 4, which is great because it means no more Paschall. But what I really hope is that Kerr has turned a corner and decided to commit to PNR, particularly with Wiseman on the court. There's been an unconscionable amount of Wiseman postups this year and far too many instances of Wiggins trying to drive from the top of the key, only for Wiseman to flash middle and try and fail to seal his man, at which point the lane is too clogged for Wiggins to get all the way.

To sum this all up, Wiggins is mostly the same player as ever on offense, but I don't really think that's his fault. I'd argue that this Warriors team, up until this point in the season, has been closer to the KAT TWolves than the the high octane shooting offenses that we expect the Warriors to have under Kerr. In these circumstances, I don't think it's particularly surprising that Wiggins has had the same negligible offensive impact as he has for most of his career. I do think there's a path to slightly better offensive production if Kerr commits to spread PNR and shooting, at which point I think we will see Wiggins' 2P% and his assists have an uptick. I'll be watching those numbers for the rest of the year with last night's game against the Bulls as my marker for a revamped rotation/offensive scheme.

What I'm especially curious about next year is how Wiggins looks with Klay and hopefully, a more cohesive lineup/scheme. I think Wiggins as a third option in a quasi-motion scheme with good spacing should be totally bearable and I'd expect his offensive impact numbers to look better than in years past. He'll never earn his contract, but he's been useful to us this year and even with his limited skillset, there's a path to him being a helpful, if not good, offensive player for us in the right circumstances. Am I happy about the Warriors having to build a roster with Wiggins' limitations in mind? God no. But I'm also not lusting to pay the widely agreed upon price of picks/Wiseman to get off of Wiggins.

[bondom34]

To sum this all up, Wiggins is mostly the same player as ever on offense,

He's at a 100 O rtg in non Curry minutes. Basically the only time he's been on a decent offense is with arguably the best offensive player of this generation.

You pretty much summed it up with this line, and unfortunately that player is not worth that contract, or very good.

At some point it can't keep going if only he won't play with Wiseman or Poole or Oubre or Wannamaker in only minutes with Steph and no Dray etc. This one line summed it up, he's pretty much the same player. Just in a new uniform. They took on bad money to get the Wolves pick, and now that's what the value remains.

The mistake was the original Russell deal for Durant.

[Warriorfan]

I'd the warriors were willing to pay a huge tax bill without fans in the seats they will do or when they are.

[gswhoops]

To sum this all up, Wiggins is mostly the same player as ever on offense,

He's at a 100 O rtg in non Curry minutes. Basically the only time he's been on a decent offense is with arguably the best offensive player of this generation.

You pretty much summed it up with this line, and unfortunately that player is not worth that contract, or very good.

At some point it can't keep going if only he won't play with Wiseman or Poole or Oubre or Wannamaker in only minutes with Steph and no Dray etc. This one line summed it up, he's pretty much the same player. Just in a new uniform. They took on bad money to get the Wolves pick, and now that's what the value remains.

The mistake was the original Russell deal for Durant.

This is the real answer TBH. Giving up a lightly-protected future first and Iguodala to give Dlo a max deal was a disaster that we only got (sort of) bailed out of because Minnesota inexplicably was also willing to give a lightly-protected pick for Dlo.

[Warriors Analyst]

To sum this all up, Wiggins is mostly the same player as ever on offense,

He's at a 100 O rtg in non Curry minutes. Basically the only time he's been on a decent offense is with arguably the best offensive player of this generation.

You pretty much summed it up with this line, and unfortunately that player is not worth that contract, or very good.

At some point it can't keep going if only he won't play with Wiseman or Poole or Oubre or Wannamaker in only minutes with Steph and no Dray etc. This one line summed it up, he's pretty much the same player. Just in a new uniform. They took on bad money to get the Wolves pick, and now that's what the value remains.

The mistake was the original Russell deal for Durant.

I never argued that Wiggins is worth his contract. I simply argued that Wiggins' role/supporting cast is not terribly different from what he had in Minnesota, so it's not surprising that his offensive impact is about the same. But he is a good defensive player this year, as the numbers you posted demonstrate.

It's known that Wiggins is not a good #2 scoring option. Those issues are compounded by the fact that the Warriors roster is a mess of limited players, many of whom -- Paschall, Oubre, Baze, and Wiggins particularly -- all have overlapping skills and flaws. I don't really think that someone like Pascal Siakam or Caris LaVert would perform that much better in Wiggins' role/context this year. I think the only type of players who could put up good impact numbers as a second option for THIS iteration of the Warriors would be star level creators like Beal, Lavine, and on the lower end of that spectrum, Brogdon, or maybe Oladipo.

In any event, I guess the point that I want to make is that Wiggins is not great but he would look better, if not genuinely good, as the 3rd option and Klay healthy, and that the price to get off Wiggins to create a TPE is too high to be appealing.

[bondom34]

To sum this all up, Wiggins is mostly the same player as ever on offense,

He's at a 100 O rtg in non Curry minutes. Basically the only time he's been on a decent offense is with arguably the best offensive player of this generation.

You pretty much summed it up with this line, and unfortunately that player is not worth that contract, or very good.

At some point it can't keep going if only he won't play with Wiseman or Poole or Oubre or Wannamaker in only minutes with Steph and no Dray etc. This one line summed it up, he's pretty much the same player. Just in a new uniform. They took on bad money to get the Wolves pick, and now that's what the value remains.

The mistake was the original Russell deal for Durant.

I never argued that Wiggins is worth his contract. I simply argued that Wiggins' role/supporting cast is not terribly different from what he had in Minnesota, so it's not surprising that his offensive impact is about the same. But he is a good defensive player this year, as the numbers you posted demonstrate.

It's known that Wiggins is not a good #2 scoring option. Those issues are compounded by the fact that the Warriors roster is a mess of limited players, many of whom -- Paschall, Oubre, Baze, and Wiggins particularly -- all have overlapping skills and flaws. I don't really think that someone like Pascal Siakam or Caris LaVert would perform that much better in Wiggins' role/context this year. I think the only type of players who could put up good impact numbers as a second option for THIS iteration of the Warriors would be star level creators like Beal, Lavine, and on the lower end of that spectrum, Brogdon, or maybe Oladipo.

In any event, I guess the point that I want to make is that Wiggins is not great but he would look better, if not genuinely good, as the 3rd option and Klay healthy, and that the price to get off Wiggins to create a TPE is too high to be appealing.

So he's the same. He's still bad, but it wouldn't look quite as bad if all of his teammates were really good. His individual impact isn't changing because the players around him are bad.

That's not the least bit relevant. Just like D Lo, changing teams didn't magically make him better or worse.

And to be clear, it's not just impact metrics. The box score stayed the same too. You're not describing anything about Wiggins, just his teammates. And also, expectations for Klay may need to be reduced.

[DroseReturnChi]

Great. Then don't worry about it, don't believe it, and stop trying to trade him from our team. We'll keep him.

Not sure who your response is aimed at, but from time to time a Wiggins thread in Trades & Transactions has been started by one of your people (Golden State partisan).



I don't remember you being in ancient Wiggins threads, so will mention something that has been brought up in past discussions.

There is no disputing that Golden State is one of the few teams that can financially carry Wiggins as a #3 or #4 (pecking order) for the Minnesota first. But the other side of that coin is that it becomes extremely difficult to almost impossible to trade him without compensation attached unless Golden State improves him enough to be a #2 on a team with normal financial resources.

Theres no need to write an essay and dispute with warriors fans who are one of the most greedy unrealistic thanks to their ridiculous ownership that defies logic. They have claimed a MLE type player is suddenly worth the max after changing uniforms and got better when literally everyone will become with the drain duo and Dray.

It is a general consensus wiggs is top 10 worst contract until his expiring yr which is like 3 yrs away and warriors dont want to pay the price. So they are pretty much trying to exploit on other team's failure which has happened such as Houston's James Harden and soon to be with Wizards' Beal.

As much as every gm knows wiggs suck, he makes a lot of sense in a rebuilding team like Wizards which also has Wall perfect for tank commander. As GM, I would be ecstatic with a core of wigs, wall bc it guarantees a top pick every yr along with wiseman and wolves and warrior picks which guarantees 30picks infinite value like OKC presti is doing. Believe it or not, wigs and wall can actually fetch something like CP3, Gallinari if they explode one season. But those are exceptions doesnt work for 20+ teams because it has to be a one superstar lottery team on less than 2 yrs contract left.

[WAKEANT]

Toronto could probably take Wiggins if they dump Boucher for picks somewhere else. They would want Wiseman or the MIN 1st though.

Wiseman
Siakam
OG
Wiggins
Fred

That's not too bad for Toronto. But why would GState want to clear space for?

Keeping Oubre on 12m and moving Wiggins on 30m saves GSW $120m in one season. $240m over next 2 seasons.

I don't think Wiggins is that much better, I also think Wiggins wouldn't need to be moved with minny pick anymore. Minny pick was used 1.5 seasons ago and it wasn't expected to be as good as it is now.

I'd say GSW would have to spend much less. Maybe just 2 or 3 SRPs to the right bidder. Wiggins has 1 year and then he's an expiring contract, which has some value on its own.

It took the Minny pick for Minny to shed Wiggins. Has anything changed?

Which is worth more D’angelo Russell or a 30m tpe and 240m in tax savings?

WRONG! It took the MINN pick attached to Wiggins to get Russell. The Wolves FO was desperate to satisfy /keep Towns by trading for his buddy DLo. Also, GSW insisted on the MINN 2021 FRP, opposed to the MINN 2020 FRP.

[WAKEANT]

Given the massive amount of cap space, limited talent in free agency and especially unrestricted wings available in free agency/trade, what do you think the winning bid on Wiggins would be in 2021 free agency if he was an unrestricted free agent? How many true wing UFA's do you rank above him in 2021 free agency?

$17M - $21M /year

[WAKEANT]

That's what everyone said before this season. Then he started playing all-NBA defense while much of the trade board was describing him as one of the worst defenders in the league, shooting 47.3% from the floor when he's never shot above 45.9% before, and shooting 39.3% on 3's when he's never shot above 35.6% before.

I guess if you want to say he's not defined by his play on a basketball court, yes, he is what he is.

He's been the same player this season as every other season by most any measure.

I've done this elsewhere. But:

From his last bunch of years, all his impact metrics remain pretty well in line at a quick glance. BBall index's metric for his past:



This year:


Single year RAPM:


Single year LA-RAPM:


3 year RAPM:


3 year LA-RAPM:



BPM the same. He's varied in efficiency but hovered from like -5 TS to league average most of his career.

Edit: And not saying any impact metrics are the be all end all, but just not really seeing anything from anywhere that's terribly out of line with his career overall, from an outside POV. Seems pretty consistent with the Wolves days.

He's the same guy, with a new jersey. In fact, this not only isn't terribly out of line, it's not even his best overall season by most means if any. So yeah, gonna say its the jersey because nothing else seems much different.

So here's something I've been thinking a lot about: how different is Wiggins' offensive role this year from his TWolves days with KAT? It's widely known and accepted that Wiggins is overpaid and is not a great offensive player, in part because of fluctuating aggression, a weak handle, and an inconsistent jumpshot. I will not dispute any of that.

But I think this Warriors team is offensively a lot closer to the KAT TWolves than they are to the Warriors of yore. It's well documented that Wiggins ranks very poorly by the impact metrics as a first or second option. Hell, even his year as a third option with the Butler Wolves he ranked poorly, although I'm inclined to think that Wiggins' bad jumper + Thibs being a very rudimentary offensive coach and sticking Wiggins in the corner was a terrible idea. So is it any surprise that Wiggins impact numbers on offense are pretty much in line with his Wolves days if he's basically playing the same role: 2nd option to a 99th percentile shooter at their position with little to no spacing around them?

I think most of us can agree that Wiggins would look a lot better if Klay was on the Warriors. Prior to Klay's injury, I expected something around 18-20 points a game, 4 boards, 3-4 assists (more on that later) on 48/37/70 ish splits. I'm surprised to say, that's more or less what we're getting, minus two assists and plus two percentage points on his 3 ball. There's two things that I thought would be a lot better this year that really haven't been, in large part because of Kerr's coaching/the Warriors' spacing: Wiggins' 2P% and his assists.

I ran some numbers a while back and in the games without Wiseman (many of which have also been without Paschall), Wiggins shoots 54% 2P. As a point of reference, that's actually higher than what Steph shot in 2014-15 and 2016-17. That's only two points short of what KD is doing this year. It's not elite, but it's pretty damn solid. In games with Wiseman, that number goes down to 52% ish. On the season, Wiggins is at 51.6% on 2P%, which is a career high, but only half a percentage point above what he did the two years prior.

There's some obvious room for growth here and I think that number should be higher for a few reasons. I'm inclined to think that Wiggins playing in a quasi-motion system with lots of sets where he can get opportunistic cuts has bumped up his 2P% ever so slightly. I expected Wiggins to be at least at 54% on 2P with Klay healthy, which is what he's doing without Wiseman. Assuming some improvement from Wiseman, additional shooting next year on the roster, 20-25 minutes of Klay for 75% of the year, there's no reason Wiggins can't bump that number up to 56% ish, which is really good 2P efficiency.

But there's some deep issues with this Warriors team. Some of it is roster construction. Some of it is Kerr. Last night's game against the Bulls was very encouraging because it seems, hopefully, like it marked a turning point in Kerr deciding to... actually play his best players and commit to running PNR. As it stands, we only have 2 guys who play >20 minutes and shoot it at or above league average from three: Steph and Wiggins. And let's be real, does anyone believe Wiggins is a true 39% shooter? There's a very well documented Steph bump that ancillary players get on their 3P% when they're on the Warriors, although Oubre is seemingly immune to that Steph bump. But the point I'm making is that I don't think you're going to see defenders go over a screen on a Wiggins PNR anytime soon or close out with the fear of God when he shoots it in the corner.

Damion Lee and Mychal Mulder shoot 39% and 39.6% from three, but they've been in and out of the rotation -- more on that later -- and they're really the only two other pure shooters on this team. Bazemore is sitting at 39.3%, but his shots are mostly in the corners and he's very streaky. Poole is now a part of the rotation and though his average minutes are sitting at 17, he's going to be a 20-25 minute player for the rest of the season and he's a legitimate shooter, albeit a high volume and therefore high variance gunner.

Meanwhile, Kelly Oubre has been hovering at 30% for most of the last two months, Eric Paschall, who was mercifully excised from the rotation right before the trade deadline shoots it at 32%, Wiseman shoots it at 33% and has mostly stopped shooting them after shooting them a lot in the beginning of the season, and Wanamaker was shooting at 21.3%. Draymond's shooting issues are well documented. Wiggins/Paschall has a 99.8 ORTG and -8.4 net rating on 388 minutes this year, Wiggins/Wiseman 97.5 ORTG and -14.4 net rating in 496 minutes, Wiggins/Oubre 104.7 ORTG and -5.2 net rating on 889 minutes this year, Wiggins/Wanamaker 101.3 ORTG and -0.7 net rating in 400 minutes this year. There's a lot of noise in these numbers, obviously Wiggins/Oubre are getting a lot of numbers with the starters, Wiggins/Paschall is mostly a bench lineup, and Wiggins/Wiseman spent a lot of time in that starting lineup that was getting pummeled in the 1st quarters to start the season until Looney got his starting spot back.

But my point here is that Kerr has spent about 50 games trying to find lineup combos that make sense while trying to balance the egos and feelings of our prized rookie, Wiseman, our TPE get and potential FA returnee, Oubre, and the guy who scored the most points for us last year, Paschall. There have been some truly awful lineups getting big minutes and Kerr's decisions have been... maddening, to say the least. Defense has been overemphasized at the expense of floor spacing and while we nominally have a top 5 defense, good teams have made that defense look terrible. Lee and Mulder have been in and out of the rotation and pretty much every time Kerr has made a change to the rotation, they've been the ones getting less minutes as a result.

Paschall finally got pulled from the rotation, which bumped up Oubre to the backup 4 (thank god!) and should have happened a while back. Paschall/Wiseman has a -23.6 net rating in 96 minutes, Paschall/Oubre has a -19.3 net rating in 275 minutes, Paschall/Poole has a -13.9 net rating in 137 minutes, Paschall/Looney is -13.7 in 93 minutes, Paschall/Wanamaker was -8.6 in 417 minutes, Paschall/Wiggins is -8.4 in 388 minutes. There's only 4 Paschall two man combos with positive net ratings: Paschall/Steph, Paschall/Dray, Paschall/Mulder, and Paschall/Bazemore. His presence makes the rotation complicated because he's a non-shooting 4 who is best as a small ball 5 who gets to ISO over and over again. That obviously clashes with Wiggins and Oubre and Wiseman (and to a lesser extent Dray, but it's not really relevant because Draymond and Paschall have only ever really played together in closing lineups with Steph where Paschall isn't going ISO ball), all of whom are mediocre shooters who don't have the highest IQ's.

On top of that, Kerr decided to kibosh Wanamaker, which thrilled Warriors fans because we assumed Poole would get to run point guard next to Damion Lee or Bazemore and instead... Kerr was reluctant to give Poole ball handling duties and put in Nico Mannion at PG. Nico is up to 40% on threes in a small sample size, but he can't finish or shoot in the midrange, so defenses still don't respect him and he's a terrible defender right now. Kerr's big rotational adjustment managed to take out Wanamaker, our worst offensive player, and somehow make our offense and defense worse and teams went zone against our bench lineups and carving them up on the other end. Wiggins was the first one to get run next to Poole/Mannion until Steve decided to try Oubre in those lineups. Their net rating was -3.9 in 28 minutes, but um... they had a 82.2 ORTG, which would be 30 points below league average. It's a terrible fit for Wiggins, who is best with the ball in his hands next to shooters and the results were predictably bad: defenses don't guard Mannion with respect and Wiggins isn't respected as a floor spacer and now you have two guys above Wiggins in the ball handling hierarchy.

It was literally only last night that Kerr did what a lot of us have been begging for and let Poole run the second unit as the point guard and went small with Lee, Baze, and Oubre as the 2/3/4. Poole had a meh game and bricked a bunch of threes, but the rejiggered rotations kept Wiggins and Oubre apart for about 12 minutes and gave Wiggins additional minutes with Steph and Bazemore (lineups with Bazemore and the starters generally perform pretty well, much better with Looney and much worse with Wiseman though). And the best thing Kerr did last night was commit to running a lot of PNR, which usually consist of 18% of our offensive possessions. Last night the number was 40% and this was our depth chart:

Steph/Poole/Mannion
Oubre/Lee/Mulder
Wiggins/Bazemore
Green/Oubre
Wiseman/Looney/Green

Wiggins played really well last night and had 21 points and 5 assists. At this point I know better than to expect any consistency in his shooting or claim that he's turned a corner as a shooter. What's important to me is the efficiency and passing. When Kerr plays shooters and lets Wiggins PNR or ISO at the top of the key, he looks a lot better. Not $35 million better, but a totally useful offensive player. When Kerr does not play shooters, those Wiggins PNR and ISO's stall out and we get a barrage of lame ass stepbacks and futile drives into traffic (anecdotally, I've noticed that Wiggins gets a very tough whistle when drives to the hoop and draws contact and I've wondered if that's put him off of driving). And somehow, Wiggins is shooting a career high 2P% while taking less shots from less than three feet (albeit on a career high 69%) and less free throws than he ever has. I truly believe that's an issue with the scheme and Kerr's rotations.

It does seem that Kerr is fully committed to Oubre as the backup 4, which is great because it means no more Paschall. But what I really hope is that Kerr has turned a corner and decided to commit to PNR, particularly with Wiseman on the court. There's been an unconscionable amount of Wiseman postups this year and far too many instances of Wiggins trying to drive from the top of the key, only for Wiseman to flash middle and try and fail to seal his man, at which point the lane is too clogged for Wiggins to get all the way.

To sum this all up, Wiggins is mostly the same player as ever on offense, but I don't really think that's his fault. I'd argue that this Warriors team, up until this point in the season, has been closer to the KAT TWolves than the the high octane shooting offenses that we expect the Warriors to have under Kerr. In these circumstances, I don't think it's particularly surprising that Wiggins has had the same negligible offensive impact as he has for most of his career. I do think there's a path to slightly better offensive production if Kerr commits to spread PNR and shooting, at which point I think we will see Wiggins' 2P% and his assists have an uptick. I'll be watching those numbers for the rest of the year with last night's game against the Bulls as my marker for a revamped rotation/offensive scheme.

What I'm especially curious about next year is how Wiggins looks with Klay and hopefully, a more cohesive lineup/scheme. I think Wiggins as a third option in a quasi-motion scheme with good spacing should be totally bearable and I'd expect his offensive impact numbers to look better than in years past. He'll never earn his contract, but he's been useful to us this year and even with his limited skillset, there's a path to him being a helpful, if not good, offensive player for us in the right circumstances. Am I happy about the Warriors having to build a roster with Wiggins' limitations in mind? God no. But I'm also not lusting to pay the widely agreed upon price of picks/Wiseman to get off of Wiggins.

This post lost me when I saw he was listed as a PF....Wiggins has never played PF