Official Spec Thread: I guess now's the time to blow this dumpster fire up and bask in the glow!

[RookieStar]

Right now Im reviewing Duarte, Mitchell, Butler and the like. Im just scared our FO is gonna draft a top Euro-stash players becasue they feel we have too much youth.

I am OK with getting Donavan or Jimmy

Welcome to the pre-covid draft lol

[EAS Law]

Has it been reported that if 1st pick not conveyed by 2022 the second first rounder turns into two seconds??

From Basketball Insiders website

Pick Swaps

2021 — Owed a first-rounder (top-4 protected in 2021, top-3 in 2022, otherwise converts to 2024 and 2025 second-rounders) from the Chicago Bulls (Nikola Vucevic).
2022 — Owed an Indiana Pacers second-rounder (Jordan Nwora) a year after the Pacers send a second-rounder to the Brooklyn Nets (2022, 2023 or 2024).
2023 — Owed a first-rounder (two years after the 2021 obligation to the Orland Magic, top-4 protected in 2023, top-3 in 2024, otherwise converts to 2026 and 2027 second-rounders) from the Chicago Bulls (Nikola Vucevic).
2025 — Owed a first-rounder (two years after the Denver Nuggets’ obligation to the Oklahoma City Thunder, top-5 protected through 2027, otherwise does not convey) from the Nuggets (Aaron Gordon).
2025 — Owed a second-rounder (the lower of the Memphis Grizzlies and Boston Celtics) from the Celtics (Evan Fournier).
2026 — Owed a Milwaukee Bucks 2020 second-rounder (Jordan Nwora).
2027 — Owed a second-rounder from the Boston Celtics (Evan Fournier).

http://www.basketballinsiders.com/orlando-magic-team-salary/

So the FRP from Denver can become nothing? Great!

I mean even the ones from Chicago become 2 second rounders... the return is just not that exciting to me

[pepe1991]

I don't get why so many people are suprised or shocked how when you play thankaton draft, Magic fall so badly.

Magic, standing at 4th worst record have biggest odds of drafting 6th.

Reformed draft killed tanking as "strategy". You won't just lose your path toward Cade.

[Ducklett]

Looks like there is rumbling out of Chicago that they might sit Zach Levine with some injury. If that is the case you could see a heavy tank and top 4 protection being a real issue.

[RookieStar]

Looks like there is rumbling out of Chicago that they might sit Zach Levine with some injury. If that is the case you could see a heavy tank and top 4 protection being a real issue.

Even if they start now, do you honestly think they can catch up with the top-5 tankers?

[Ducklett]

Looks like there is rumbling out of Chicago that they might sit Zach Levine with some injury. If that is the case you could see a heavy tank and top 4 protection being a real issue.

Even if they start now, do you honestly think they can catch up with the top-5 tankers?

No, but even if they only drop 3 spots they are doubling their chances of a top 4 pick. That is extremely significant.

[RookieStar]

Looks like there is rumbling out of Chicago that they might sit Zach Levine with some injury. If that is the case you could see a heavy tank and top 4 protection being a real issue.

Even if they start now, do you honestly think they can catch up with the top-5 tankers?

No, but even if they only drop 3 spots they are doubling their chances of a top 4 pick. That is extremely significant.

I get that, but what makes their odds better in getting a top-4 pick compared to us? Even if dropping to spot-7 is that better than our spot 4? Unless we really do have a curse then Im not worried that the pick wont convey to us this draft.

[Magic#1]

From Basketball Insiders website

http://www.basketballinsiders.com/orlando-magic-team-salary/

So the FRP from Denver can become nothing? Great!

I mean even the ones from Chicago become 2 second rounders... the return is just not that exciting to me

There's next to no chance Chicago gets back-to-back top four or three picks. That's like a 1% chance of happening. We're likely getting their first rounder this year and if not definitely next year. Same thing with Denver. I don't think even the T-Wolves have gotten top five picks for three straight years. So we would need Denver to suddenly become terrible and hit huge lottery luck for three straight years to not get a first rounder.
The realistic odds are that we get a late lotto this year, maybe a pick in the teens in '23 and a pick in the 20s in '25. We're getting some pretty decent assets.

[ARandomStranger]

Its more than that, The Bulls will probably sit Zach, but it is definitely not to tank. They will probably sit him a few games to give him a breather and bring him back for a real serious push. Its clear as day he isn't one hundred percent and instead of risking it they will rest him a few games. I think their team is bad and I don't think they will make the playoffs, but I think it will be one of those situations where they are just good enough to give us their pick. Besides...they weren't beating the next three teams anyway. So, rest him till the Pacers game.

[PrimeThyme]

People act like we traded James Harden. The reality is we traded a 31-year-old all-star center with 2 years left on his contract for a young center prospect and two first-rounders which have a high probability of netting us two top 15 picks over the next 3 seasons. That is 110 cents on the dollar for Vuc.

The doomsday scenario that everybody keeps citing is so unlikely that it's not worth having this constant discussion over it. We got very good value back for Vuc.

[SOUL]

I mean even the ones from Chicago become 2 second rounders... the return is just not that exciting to me

Nobody is trading unprotected picks ever since that Billy King trade. Top 3 or 4 protected is the best you could hope for.

[ogmagicfan]

The return on Vuc was good initially, and is looking great in retrospect with how the draft picks are squaring away to be. The protection are standard. The likelihood of the picks converting to 2 second rounders is so low. I would rather take the risk on that than hang onto Vuc and continue to be a treadmill while also hurting our own drafting odds.

We need to be logical here. Vuc was at peak value. The longer we held onto him the lower his value would go and less time on his reasonable contract garnering less on a return, and those same posters are the ones mad about what we got for Aaron Gordon and Fournier knowing good & well that we would have gotten more if we traded them sooner.

It’s clear some are content with mediocrity, but a large majority aren’t, including the posters like me who’ve came back since there’s actual direction and commitment to building a team that has some hope instead of thinking Vuc, Gordon & Fournier were going to be the next Heat team. Must be drinking the same koolaid Martins was on.

[OrlandO]

Weltman needs to step up the tank to another level. Ross and MCW should be shutdown sooner than later. Harris has missed the past two months... his season should already be declared over. Bacon, Porter, Ennis, Birch, Randle... if any of these vets aren't returning next season they need to be waived and replaced with the worst g-leaguer they can find. These guys are fighting for contracts here or elsewhere.... the rest of the roster is young guys battling each other for larger roles. They all have reasons to stay motivated to the end despite the lost season. We have a tough schedule, but we still play the bottom six teams.... and a motivated bad team can beat any bad team. We blew it up, time to go all in on the tank... can't half-ass it like we did in 2018.

[basketballRob]

Weltman needs to step up the tank to another level. Ross and MCW should be shutdown sooner than later. Bacon, Porter, Ennis, Birch... if any of these vets aren't returning next season they need to be waived and replaced with the worst g-leaguer they can find. These guys are fighting for contracts here or elsewhere.... the rest of the roster is young guys battling each other for larger roles. They all have reasons to stay motivated to the end despite the lost season. We have a tough schedule, but we still play the bottom six teams.... and a motivated bad team can beat any bad team. We blew it up, time to go all in on the tank... can't half-ass it like we did in 2018.

I agree. If you look at Cleveland's schedule they may not win another game. If we end up with the 5th or 6th worst record, we're likely to get the 7th or 8th pick. Losing every game sucks, but I think we have to get into this top 5.

Sent from my SM-G950U using RealGM mobile app

[Ducklett]

So the FRP from Denver can become nothing? Great!

I mean even the ones from Chicago become 2 second rounders... the return is just not that exciting to me

There's next to no chance Chicago gets back-to-back top four or three picks. That's like a 1% chance of happening. We're likely getting their first rounder this year and if not definitely next year. Same thing with Denver. I don't think even the T-Wolves have gotten top five picks for three straight years. So we would need Denver to suddenly become terrible and hit huge lottery luck for three straight years to not get a first rounder.
The realistic odds are that we get a late lotto this year, maybe a pick in the teens in '23 and a pick in the 20s in '25. We're getting some pretty decent assets.

This is what everyone said about that Lakers pick. Remember how that went?

[MagicStarwipe]

I think what I find incredible is how Vuc was constantly abused on this forum for years despite being a legitimate Allstar twice, but we have this unwarranted affection for Mo Bamba and now the new fodder from the trade.

I mean we couldn’t wait to get rid of an actual All star because he played a fundamental, less athletic way—but we salivate at the thought of starting someone who has proven to be an absolute deer in headlights with zero motor by all accounts. Unbelievable. People get what they deserve.

I can only hope that this new batch of rookies actually pans out—because of course, guys that look good in college ALWAYS end up being superstar NBA players.

Show me all of this so called "affection" for Bamba. Like c'mon man... I'm sick of guys just making up stuff.

How about willfully ignoring all of his faults and failings while simultaneously demanding he play?

How about willfully justifying or rationalizing everything he has proven he cannot do because he has “potential”...at the tail end of his rookie contract no less

That’s what I’m referring to

So "affection" is wanting your 6th pick in the draft to play minutes in a tanking season after he has barely gotten off the bench in his career up to this point, so we can actually see what he is capable of with real NBA minutes? I don't see many Bamba homers on the board. The majority of the board points out his flaws quite happily. Sounds like you just want to create a narrative to be mad about.

[PrimeThyme]

This is what everyone said about that Lakers pick. Remember how that went?

Remember what we traded for that Lakers pick? At the time a 6x All-star, 6 times All NBA, 5x all defensive, && 3x DPOY type player. Vuc's value isn't even in the same stratosphere. You can't compare the two situations.

You were never getting two unprotected firsts from a lottery team for a player on his level.

[MagicStarwipe]

I don't get why so many people are suprised or shocked how when you play thankaton draft, Magic fall so badly.

Magic, standing at 4th worst record have biggest odds of drafting 6th.

Reformed draft killed tanking as "strategy". You won't just lose your path toward Cade.

Who is "surprised" or "shocked" about it? Why do people constantly just make things up?

[Ducklett]

This is what everyone said about that Lakers pick. Remember how that went?

Remember what we traded for that Lakers pick? At the time a 6x All-star, 6 times All NBA, 5x all defensive, && 3x DPOY type player. Vuc's value isn't even in the same stratosphere. You can't compare the two situations.

You were never getting two unprotected firsts from a lottery team for a player on his level.

I didn't say we could. All I am saying is that getting their pick isn't a sure thing and if they drops 3 spots that 40% chance for us to not get it is much worse odds for us then what happened to us with the Lakers pick that was a "sure thing".

Why are you guys missing the point?

[PrimeThyme]

I didn't say we could. All I am saying is that getting their pick isn't a sure thing and if they drops 3 spots that 40% chance for us to not get it is much worse odds for us then what happened to us with the Lakers pick that was a "sure thing".

Why are you guys missing the point?

I'm not missing the point. You were quoted yesterday saying that If we don't get that pick the trade will be a failure. && I completely disagree. Maybe you could argue the protections on the Lakers pick was a bad decision considering the asset we traded, but this is a completely different situation.

Even with the potential risk with these picks we still got full, && in my opinion above market value for Vuc regardless of the outlier complete doomsday scenario that could happen.

That's what you and others are missing.