Post#302 » by yoyoboy » Mon Mar 29, 2021 3:59 pm
Mobley has gotta be the number one pick at this point.
I'm not as high on him as some people in this thread, but I'm not as high on this draft class in general so I'm not seeing a surefire can't miss prospect to pick above Mobley. Cade did himself no favors in the tournament and none of the other guys are quite as intriguing imo to make a serious push for the number one spot.
Mobley's handle and the fluidity with which he moves are very impressive for his size. He's not necessarily a special playmaker imo, to the point where he'll be a legitimate point forward/point center in the NBA, but he's a very good one for his size, and his vision and willingness to make the right passes are obvious strengths. I really like how quick he's been to make decisions lately especially. He doesn't project to be a great shooter at the NBA level imo (usually FT% and 3PA rate are good indicators) but I think he'll be a solid one -- like Anthony Davis-level -- and the value he brings by being able to keep defenses honest with an outside jumper will depend on whether he's able to play the PF or C position in the NBA, which brings me to my next point.
Defensively, I think he'll be very good with time. But I'm not seeing a transcendent defender with truly special defensive physical tools or cream of the crop defensive IQ. His mobility and length are great, and so he should be a very nice PnR defender who can do an adequate enough job switching. I don't think he's quick footed or balanced enough to be the switch monster that guys like Draymond, Davis, Issac, JJJ are, but he'll still be very solid. He already has really good awareness and positioning as a freshman in college. But with the way he's built, even if he's able to successfully bulk up, I think he'll aways struggle with physicality due to his high hips and high center of gravity. I'm also somewhat doubtful he'll be able to rebound at the level you'd need from a center due to his slender frame. So realistically you're looking at him playing the PF position, which projects better for his defense but a little worse for his offense imo since he's less of a mismatch/floor spacer at the 5. Lastly wanted to mention that while he can clearly protect the rim, he's not as aggressive or springy contesting shots around the rim, specifically from bigger guys, as the truly elite prospects, and so I think it's in his best interest to be more of devastating help rim protector at the PF position.
On offense, Mobley really reminds me of Jaren Jackson without the high-level 3P shooting but with better playmaking. The way they move and the way they score inside the arc are eerily similar. Mobley isn't a 7 footer who can legitimately move like a guard a la Anthony Davis or KG and people making those comparisons are being unfair to him. It's a strength for him nevertheless, even if not quite all-time level. And then defensively, I think you've got a mobile versatile rim protecting PF who due to his limits I don't see ever getting any DPOY honors, but I expect to be around top 5 at his position throughout his prime. I can see him being a +1.0-1.5 O | +1.5-2.0 D kind of player around his peak personally.