Bucks News, Trade Ideas, Transactions - Joe Johnson workout, pg 97

[skones]

17th? Yet only 16 teams make the playoffs.. count it out yet?

48 teams have made the playoffs over that span. Have you?

Boy, this just isn't going well for you.

I agree with the premise of advanced stats that show how players can impact the game outside of points per game but universal application and ignoring outliers is irresponsible.

There's a reason I included a number of metrics in my initial post. It was meant to explicitly show that a number of them agreed, thus demonstrating that I'm not putting too much faith in one single metric (ie. a possible outlier). The conclusion that should have been drawn in using a number of them should have been, "All of these show Donte is an impactful defensive player, thus it is highly likely he is an impactful defensive player." I not using universal application or looking at player A vs player B and saying, oh this guy is .07 better so he is the better player. That, however, is how you're consistently interpreting these statistics, because again, you have no idea what they mean or how they are calculated. You're hopeless.

[Daver]

Since im assuming most if not all the teams have the hard on for advanced stats.So i guess then a good question would be seeing skones put those stats out there how many other GMs would trade any of those guys on that list even up for apparently the #6 SG in overall D (whatever that is saying) i bet there is no one in the top 20 that we could get with just Donte alone( im not including salary just mano e mano)without throwing in draft picks

[Daver]

Maybe to buck fans is Donte that highly thought of and around the league hes considered a just a role player

[giannis and 1]

He ranks:
3rd amongst SGs in D-LEBRON
5th amongst SGs in DRPM
16th amongst SGs in DEF Raptor
79th amongst all players in DRAPM
60th amongst all players in DWS
31st amongst all players in ST%

But yet if we put Donte on the trade market, we'd probably get a Bogdan back at best.

I'd say that simply to note that I'm both glass half-full and glass half-empty with Donte. He's a nice all around player, but he's also a guy who a team will always be looking to upgrade on if you can.

This is supposed to put DDV in a negative light?

DDV and a negative value salary dump (DJW) got us Bogdan. Meaning DDV had higher value than Bogdan, who the free market valued as an 18 million dollar player.

DDV has higher value than an $18 million player. Think about that.

[giannis and 1]

Well since we’re back to doom and gloom for this season, and Bud won’t be fired - what do we do next?

You think this is doom and gloom? Were you here for any Herb years? We have bag night dudes on this board right now.

People are being realistic, yes but it based on not wanting to waste Giannis years by not being very competitive deep in the playoffs at the very least. We have the right point guard now but we're worried about some patterns developing:

1. Possible regression of Brook on O or Middleton on D
2. Enough talented wings that can play D AND shoot consistently win a few series
3. Can Bud get everyone on the same page on these new defensive/offensive schemes especially new people and working around injuries
4. Are we even on the same level as the Nets or do our new additions match what we need to be more efficient on both ends
5. Our money and assets are largely depleted and big moves are going to be tough to make

I think all of this and other things people are bringing up are fair to debate and it will never be doom and gloom as long as Giannis is still here.

To be fair, we missed a big chance in 2019. Mirotic going 1-7 on wide open 3's (and Khris and Bled both 1-6 from 3, Giannis 2-7 on FT's) in a game that went to OT prevented us to take a 3-0 lead and probably a sweep and a finals win as well. The effect of this loss was horrific. A choke job in the next 3 games, Bud not able to adjust, Bled as a true choke artist and Giannis losing confidence.
Against Miami nothing changed so we had to start all over this year, while other teams improved (a lot).

The good things:
1. If we win it this year it will be legen...dary.
2. If we don't and fail miserably it should be the end of coach Bud in Milwaukee.
So basicly it's a win-win anyway.

This is my exact opinion on it. Horst can bounce too. Brook needs to go no matter what, and IMO it may be the right time to trade Middleton to create flexibility, get younger, and shake up the roster in a meaningful way.

Barnie Stinson reference was nice btw.

[giannis and 1]

17th? Yet only 16 teams make the playoffs.. count it out yet?

48 teams have made the playoffs over that span. Have you?

Boy, this just isn't going well for you.

I agree with the premise of advanced stats that show how players can impact the game outside of points per game but universal application and ignoring outliers is irresponsible.

I don't think anyone here sees advanced stats like this though. No one here believes that DDV being ranked 6th in some stat makes him the 6th best defender or whatever. Most people use these stats to point them in the right direction.

Like the fact that DDV is ranked so highly by a lot of these, doesn't mean that his exact ranking is the exact quantification of his ability. What these stats should be used for is to support the argument that DDV is a very good defender, and a boon to his team. I'm pretty sure this is what Skones is saying.

[thonnisbeastley]

Donte's advanced defensive stats have been inflated by playing for (one of)the best defensive team(s) in the NBA over the last 2 seasons. Before Brook dropped off, he was usually the 4th/5th best defender on the floor with Bledsoe, Middleton, Giannis, and Brook. This season Jrue guards the best offensive guard on the opposing team. Donte is a great all around player but pointing to a bunch of advanced defensive metrics, most of which take the overall team performance into account doesn't mean as much as some of you think. He's a good enough player to start on our team but he's definitely better suited as a 6th man/3rd guard for us. He's a middle of the pack SG in this league, somewhere around #15. Probably the most overrated player on this board by a long shot.

[skones]

Donte's advanced defensive stats have been inflated by playing for (one of)the best defensive team(s) in the NBA over the last 2 seasons. Before Brook dropped off, he was usually the 4th/5th best defender on the floor with Bledsoe, Middleton, Giannis, and Brook. This season Jrue guards the best offensive guard on the opposing team. Donte is a great all around player but pointing to a bunch of advanced defensive metrics, most of which take the overall team performance into account doesn't mean as much as some of you think. He's a good enough player to start on our team but he's definitely better suited as a 6th man/3rd guard for us. He's a middle of the pack SG in this league, somewhere around #15. Probably the most overrated player on this board by a long shot.

No, that's not how they work. Many of them take steps to isolate the player from team performance. They're imperfect, but stating that they take overall team performance into account as if that drastically skews a players overall contribution is inaccurate. In fact, what they try to do is take the baseline performance level of a team, assume that each player contributes equally, and then begin working from there. BPM one of the more basic metrics, which serves as a reference point for many others, literally measures these guys relative to the players they're on the court with, meaning if one player is making dramatic contributions on the defensive end, the other player is more likely to be hurt by it than helped.

[Baddy Chuck]

Donte's advanced stats are good because he's playing extremely well in the role he's given. Maybe he's not good enough to take the next step and become a real difference maker in a highlighted role but in the role he's playing he's been awesome.

[thonnisbeastley]

Donte's advanced defensive stats have been inflated by playing for (one of)the best defensive team(s) in the NBA over the last 2 seasons. Before Brook dropped off, he was usually the 4th/5th best defender on the floor with Bledsoe, Middleton, Giannis, and Brook. This season Jrue guards the best offensive guard on the opposing team. Donte is a great all around player but pointing to a bunch of advanced defensive metrics, most of which take the overall team performance into account doesn't mean as much as some of you think. He's a good enough player to start on our team but he's definitely better suited as a 6th man/3rd guard for us. He's a middle of the pack SG in this league, somewhere around #15. Probably the most overrated player on this board by a long shot.

No, that's not how they work. Many of them take steps to isolate the player from team performance. They're imperfect, but stating that they take overall team performance into account as if that drastically skews a players overall contribution is inaccurate. In fact, what they try to do is take the baseline performance level of a team, assume that each player contributes equally, and then begin working from there. BPM one of the more basic metrics, which serves as a reference point for many others, literally measures these guys relative to the players they're on the court with, meaning if one player is making dramatic contributions on the defensive end, the other player is more likely to be hurt by it than helped.

You're right, some of them are better than others.

[thonnisbeastley]

Donte's advanced stats are good because he's playing extremely well in the role he's given. Maybe he's not good enough to take the next step and become a real difference maker in a highlighted role but in the role he's playing he's been awesome.

I think becoming a real difference maker in a highlighted role would take a few steps in his case. Again, great overall player, good enough to start in this league and he will get better. But at the same time, quite a few of his advanced stats are down compared to last season when he was a 6th man.

[HKPackFan]

After getting rid of guys like Jabari and Thon, and then lesser players like the John Henson's and Delly/Telly's of the world...

After saying goodbye to the invisible man we still had the DJ's to hate on and complain about.

And yet when they disappeared, I was actually wondering, what player is left that this forum is going to vehemently disagree about.

Never thought it would be DDV.

If he's the most controversial player on the team, Horst isn't doing terrible. (his managing of assets is less than desired but DDV isn't bad if people are upset he's the 4th-6th best best player).

[TroyD92]

After getting rid of guys like Jabari and Thon, and then lesser players like the John Henson's and Delly/Telly's of the world...

After saying goodbye to the invisible man we still had the DJ's to hate on and complain about.

And yet when they disappeared, I was actually wondering, what player is left that this forum is going to vehemently disagree about.

Never thought it would be DDV.

If he's the most controversial player on the team, Horst isn't doing terrible. (his managing of assets is less than desired but DDV isn't bad if people are upset he's the 4th-6th best best player).

Is it bad if he's the only one left to talk about? Pretending horst hasnt done a bad job is a bit much.

[raysbookclub]

When is Teague supposed to be with the team?

[coolhandluke121]

Donte's advanced defensive stats have been inflated by playing for (one of)the best defensive team(s) in the NBA over the last 2 seasons. Before Brook dropped off, he was usually the 4th/5th best defender on the floor with Bledsoe, Middleton, Giannis, and Brook. This season Jrue guards the best offensive guard on the opposing team. Donte is a great all around player but pointing to a bunch of advanced defensive metrics, most of which take the overall team performance into account doesn't mean as much as some of you think. He's a good enough player to start on our team but he's definitely better suited as a 6th man/3rd guard for us. He's a middle of the pack SG in this league, somewhere around #15. Probably the most overrated player on this board by a long shot.

No, that's not how they work. Many of them take steps to isolate the player from team performance. They're imperfect, but stating that they take overall team performance into account as if that drastically skews a players overall contribution is inaccurate. In fact, what they try to do is take the baseline performance level of a team, assume that each player contributes equally, and then begin working from there. BPM one of the more basic metrics, which serves as a reference point for many others, literally measures these guys relative to the players they're on the court with, meaning if one player is making dramatic contributions on the defensive end, the other player is more likely to be hurt by it than helped.

He also had the same great advanced stats last year as strictly a bench player. The idea that the starting lineup is carrying him is a laughable premise.

[coolhandluke121]

The Bucks have to sign someone by tomorrow in order to get to the roster minimum of 14 NBA contracts. The deadline is two weeks from the PJ Tucker trade.

I read somewhere that prorated contracts are based on the number of days remaining, as opposed to the number of games. If that's true, that's good for the Bucks. They have 34.7% (25/72) of their games left in the remaining 31.5% of the regular season calendar days (46/146), so they get more games for their buck this way. They need the depth. I'm counting on two buyout guys.

I think a vet min deal will cost about $11,100 per day. If they sign Teague tomorrow, he will cost almost exactly $500k. I'm not convinced he's going to join the team on the road trip, although of course he very well might, so they can wait to sign him. If they just sign Diakite to get to the roster minimum tomorrow and wait until the homestand for Teague, they might even be able to sign two vet min guys under the tax threshold before the playoff roster deadline, which I think is 4/9. They would have to waive someone and eat their salary to do that though. I bet Teague will appreciate a few more days to transition. This season has been a grind.

So waive Kurucs, sign Diakite tomorrow, Teague Sunday, and another vet on 4/9? If my understanding of prorated deals is correct, that would cost them roughly $1.175m, whereas they are reportedly $1.2m under the tax threshold.

[WRau1]

After getting rid of guys like Jabari and Thon, and then lesser players like the John Henson's and Delly/Telly's of the world...

After saying goodbye to the invisible man we still had the DJ's to hate on and complain about.

And yet when they disappeared, I was actually wondering, what player is left that this forum is going to vehemently disagree about.

Never thought it would be DDV.

If he's the most controversial player on the team, Horst isn't doing terrible. (his managing of assets is less than desired but DDV isn't bad if people are upset he's the 4th-6th best best player).

Is it bad if he's the only one left to talk about? Pretending horst hasnt done a bad job is a bit much.

You don't have to pretend because Horst hasn't done a bad job.

[slos]

In theory Bucks can sign two vets and still stay under the tax line close to 300K. What we don't know is which of Jrue's bonuses are likely. Horst probably knows this better. My guess is that we end up with 14 players to keep 750K for a likely Holiday bonus. Stretching Kurucs could even become an option to create a little more room under the tax. There should be no mistake with that since Bucks will be deep in the tax for the next 3-4 years with Jrue/Midds/Giannis locked in max/close to max/supermax deals.

[coolhandluke121]

In theory Bucks can sign two vets and still stay under the tax line close to 300K. What we don't know is which of Jrue's bonuses are likely. Horst probably knows this better. My guess is that we end up with 14 players to keep 750K for a likely Holiday bonus. Stretching Kurucs could even become an option to create a little more room under the tax. There should be no mistake with that since Bucks will be deep in the tax for the next 3-4 years with Jrue/Midds/Giannis locked in max/close to max/supermax deals.

I think pretty much every report is assuming Jrue reaches the "games played" threshold and earns those incentives, so that's factored into the $1.2m they are reportedly under the tax. It includes playoff games, so he's not likely to miss that. As for his other incentives, we don't know, but it seems a lot of people who know more than I do are assuming they're unlikely. If they're like last year's statistical thresholds, he's not going to hit them, as he's sacrificing numbers on this team.

Someone also mentioned that the incentives don't count against the tax threshold the same way they count against the hard cap, so there's that.

[slos]

In theory Bucks can sign two vets and still stay under the tax line close to 300K. What we don't know is which of Jrue's bonuses are likely. Horst probably knows this better. My guess is that we end up with 14 players to keep 750K for a likely Holiday bonus. Stretching Kurucs could even become an option to create a little more room under the tax. There should be no mistake with that since Bucks will be deep in the tax for the next 3-4 years with Jrue/Midds/Giannis locked in max/close to max/supermax deals.

I think pretty much every report is assuming Jrue reaches the "games played" threshold and earns those incentives, so that's factored into the $1.2m they are reportedly under the tax. It includes playoff games, so he's not likely to miss that. As for his other incentives, we don't know, but it seems a lot of people who know more than I do are assuming they're unlikely. If they're like last year's statistical thresholds, he's not going to hit them, as he's sacrificing numbers on this team.

Someone also mentioned that the incentives don't count against the tax threshold the same way they count against the hard cap, so there's that.

I remember a couple of season ago reports about Snell having 1 mil bonus in case we win the championship, which would put us in the tax. I don't know if that kind of money count against real tax bills, but I think it still makes you a tax team and triggers the repeated tax a year earlier. Not sure about that though either. Horst needs to play safe and to do what it takes to avoid it. It would be stupid to pay any tax for the privilege of Teague, Rivers or Kurucs.