Rui Hachimura

[dckingsfan]

So, no, in the last 3 games Rui hasn't kept up the 7-game improvement.

That's because in the last 3 games, he hasn't had Bradley Beal to draw defensive attention. Rui isn't yet good enough of a shot creator to be the second option. Right now he is a third option...

He would be a 4th option on a good team, IMO. I hope he can make the jump to legit 3rd option by next year.

But let me ask a hypothetical question. You draft Mobley who should be a PF. Then you get to "push" Rui to the SF position. Hypothetically he starts hitting his 3 and can play bullyball against SFs. Then he could be a solid 3rd option, no?

I could be waaaay off on this...

[nate33]

So, no, in the last 3 games Rui hasn't kept up the 7-game improvement.

That's because in the last 3 games, he hasn't had Bradley Beal to draw defensive attention. Rui isn't yet good enough of a shot creator to be the second option. Right now he is a third option...

He would be a 4th option on a good team, IMO. I hope he can make the jump to legit 3rd option by next year.

But let me ask a hypothetical question. You draft Mobley who should be a PF. Then you get to "push" Rui to the SF position. Hypothetically he starts hitting his 3 and can play bullyball against SFs. Then he could be a solid 3rd option, no?

I could be waaaay off on this...

I know most on this board think that Rui would be better off at SF, but I disagree. I think in almost all situations, a tweener is better off playing the bigger position. Lebron is more effective at PF, Anthony Davis is better at center, etc.

If we drafted Mobley, we might have to slide Rui over to SF to accommodate him, but we would be anxiously awaiting the day that Mobley could shift to center so that Rui could go back to PF and we could outskill the competition - at least in crunch time.

[nate33]

He would be a 4th option on a good team, IMO. I hope he can make the jump to legit 3rd option by next year.

The Rui of the last 10 games (or more accurately, the last 7 games when alongside Beal) was totally fine as a legit 3rd option. 18 points on a TS% of .615 is a 3rd option.

[WallToWall]

So, no, in the last 3 games Rui hasn't kept up the 7-game improvement.

That's because in the last 3 games, he hasn't had Bradley Beal to draw defensive attention. Rui isn't yet good enough of a shot creator to be the second option. Right now he is a third option...

He would be a 4th option on a good team, IMO. I hope he can make the jump to legit 3rd option by next year.

But let me ask a hypothetical question. You draft Mobley who should be a PF. Then you get to "push" Rui to the SF position. Hypothetically he starts hitting his 3 and can play bullyball against SFs. Then he could be a solid 3rd option, no?

I could be waaaay off on this...

Beal is a good 1st option for our and most other teams in the league. The way Westbrook has been playing the last couple games, it makes for a good case for him to be a very good 2nd option on this team, and perhaps half the other teams in the league. Rui has put up these numbers as a 3rd option. If the numbers he has been putting up the last 10 games hold up, then he is already a good 3rd option.
Rui rebounds like a SF, and many people make the case that his best position is as a SF because he can also guard SF and some G's. In todays game, we cant have enough versatile forwards. In our offensive system, there doesnt seem to be a distinction between SF and PF.

[doclinkin]

That's because in the last 3 games, he hasn't had Bradley Beal to draw defensive attention. Rui isn't yet good enough of a shot creator to be the second option. Right now he is a third option...

He would be a 4th option on a good team, IMO. I hope he can make the jump to legit 3rd option by next year.

But let me ask a hypothetical question. You draft Mobley who should be a PF. Then you get to "push" Rui to the SF position. Hypothetically he starts hitting his 3 and can play bullyball against SFs. Then he could be a solid 3rd option, no?

I could be waaaay off on this...

I know most on this board think that Rui would be better off at SF, but I disagree. I think in almost all situations, a tweener is better off playing the bigger position. Lebron is more effective at PF, Anthony Davis is better at center, etc.

If we drafted Mobley, we might have to slide Rui over to SF to accommodate him, but we would be anxiously awaiting the day that Mobley could shift to center so that Rui could go back to PF and we could outskill the competition - at least in crunch time.

Commonly, and effectively, LeBron plays point guard.
Magic Johnson at PG
7' Kevin Garnett at PF not C
7' Tim Duncan at PF not C
6'11" Kevin Durant at SF not PF
7' Unibrow at PF not C
6'11"' Giannis at PF not C

I tend to disagree. To me if you can defend the smaller position, that's where you should play. More length makes it easier to defend. Add too many short players in tweener positions and you have a situation where the blanket is too short for shoulders and feet. I think teams have gotten confused in the pace and space era in thinking that small ball worked for the Warriors because they were short and quick and not because Draymond was playing at a HOF level and they were able to defend despite the handicap. They induced teams to play small then had an advantage. But no team is the Death Line-up Warriors. Not even Golden State anymore.

Teams like the Bucks realized a rebounding advantage tilts the game in your favor. That is key here. Rui currently lacks feel for rebounding. Still his rebounding has taken a downturn at a time when his defense has been key on the exterior. If you compare him with PFs his output is thin, if you compare with SFs then his output is solid. Still, wahtever the personnel and designation of players around him, he has been playing in a perimeter role. He plays a face-up game with skill from outside. His 3-ball is developing. He defends the outside well, especially against star perimeter Bigs, but surprisingly also against small quick players. He is less skilled underneath defending against bigger players. If we had a dominant rebounder behind him then his size and activity on the perimeter becomes an advantage. He forces the better outside player to pass to a lower percentage shooter. Their misses become our rebounding chances.

Still I think he and Deni should be on court together so I don't care who you call what. I keep picturing them in the VIllanova offense with mobile forwards who play an outside game.

[9 and 20]

I know most on this board think that Rui would be better off at SF, but I disagree. I think in almost all situations, a tweener is better off playing the bigger position. Lebron is more effective at PF, Anthony Davis is better at center, etc.

If we drafted Mobley, we might have to slide Rui over to SF to accommodate him, but we would be anxiously awaiting the day that Mobley could shift to center so that Rui could go back to PF and we could outskill the competition - at least in crunch time.

It was a different era, and Rui is a different player, but I thought of Jamison when I read this and how much he struggled defensively at the 4.

Probably the right answer is he can play both positions depending on matchups and the other forward playing with Rui.

[payitforward]

So, no, in the last 3 games Rui hasn't kept up the 7-game improvement.

That's because in the last 3 games, he hasn't had Bradley Beal to draw defensive attention. Rui isn't yet good enough of a shot creator to be the second option. Right now he is a third option. He still needs most of his shots to be in the flow of the offense or against a mismatch. He's not yet good enough to just create his own shot against a primary defender in a set defense with high efficiency. Few 2nd year players are.

But let's not diminish his scoring volume on mediocre efficiency. That's not easy either. How many guys in his draft class can do it other than Zion and Morant? My quick screen of the stats over the last 10 games ...

As I'm sure you are aware, if you know in advance what you want to prove, you can always find a dataset to prove it true. In this case, why would we measure comparative scoring over the last 10 games? B/c Rui had a string of better than usual games than usual? So we should look at other guys across the same stretch of time?

How about we measure over the season as a whole? Tell you what... I'll go look.

...Well that took 90 seconds. Let's just start with Keldon Johnson, a 6'5" guard-forward, who was taken #29 in the same draft in which Rui went #9. Two years younger than Rui.

The two guys have played almost exactly the same # of minutes this year -- But Johnson only played 300 minutes last year, so Rui has twice the experience.

As scorers this year, the 2 of them are very close. Johnson scores @ 1/3 point more than Rui per 40 minutes. Rui's TS% is @1.5% below average at his position; Johnson's is @1% lower than average at his position.

The rest isn't really close: Johnson's a 2-3 -- yet he gets slightly more defensive boards than Rui, he gets way more offensive boards than Rui, he blocks way more shots than Rui, & he gets more assists than Rui. Rui closes the gap a little by logging slightly more steals & slightly fewer fouls.

If we just look at how well guys have played overall -- i.e. rather than focusing on scoring whether efficient or inefficient -- it would be easy to add several more players taken well after Rui in the same draft who have been significantly better so far than Rui has been.

But, there would be no point to the exercise, just as there is no point to the exercise of demonstrating that, somehow, Rui increasing his scoring while lowering efficiency is evidence of what a good player he is. Every player in every league in every country on planet Earth will score more points if he takes more shots!

Rui is a 23 year old NBA player who has logged @2700 minutes in his first 2 years in the league. Has he been good so far? No. Is he good right now? No. Rui is a well below average NBA player. Will he be good some day? I hope so. & so do you. But, I don't know that he will be. & neither do you.

Most important: my pointing to the facts won't hold Rui back, & a bunch of fans on a message board blowing in his balloon won't accelerate his growth either.

Rinse & repeat with Deni Avdija -- I thought he'd be good right away. So far, he's been bad. So far, it looks like we'd have been a whole lot better off taking Haliburton this year & trading down last year to get Mr. Unnameable & Keldon Johnson.

[payitforward]

The reason you poopoo that isn't because it doesn't make sense - because it does make sense. It's because it messes up your statistical evaluations. And you go into the "Warning - does not compute" mode. Correct me if I'm right.

Nah, sorry. Not right.

All references to what a player would do if... whatever... have the same value. Zero. Any player. Has nothing to do with Rui.

You proved my point.

Not possible. You don't have one.

This is not about basketball or statistics or math, ruz; it's about a well-established field called "Logic." If you're really interested I'll be happy to point you to where the point is made in the "real" (i.e. not my) writing on the subject.

[payitforward]

http://rui-nation.com/

Finally! If he becomes a star, you'll make some money by selling the domain.

[Ruzious]

Nah, sorry. Not right.

All references to what a player would do if... whatever... have the same value. Zero. Any player. Has nothing to do with Rui.

You proved my point.

Not possible. You don't have one.

This is not about basketball or statistics or math, ruz; it's about a well-established field called "Logic." If you're really interested I'll be happy to point you to where the point is made in the "real" (i.e. not my) writing on the subject.

And anyone who understands both logic and basketball also realizes there are many outside factors that individual players cannot control that affect outcomes. You choose to ignore that. I don't know why you do that, but at least you are consistent. And that's my last word on the subject.

[NatP4]

I know most on this board think that Rui would be better off at SF, but I disagree. I think in almost all situations, a tweener is better off playing the bigger position. Lebron is more effective at PF, Anthony Davis is better at center, etc.

If we drafted Mobley, we might have to slide Rui over to SF to accommodate him, but we would be anxiously awaiting the day that Mobley could shift to center so that Rui could go back to PF and we could outskill the competition - at least in crunch time.

It was a different era, and Rui is a different player, but I thought of Jamison when I read this and how much he struggled defensively at the 4.

Probably the right answer is he can play both positions depending on matchups and the other forward playing with Rui.

It’s only a topic of discussion because we haven’t had a C capable of protecting the rim and rebounding outside his area (12+ rebounds per36).

If we did, I totally agree with Nate that in this era, you play the more athletic floor spacing player “up” a spot as opposed to down. The league is all about switching and shooting 3s.

Hopefully Gafford develops into a real defensive anchor that controls the paint and by himself, turns a team into a top 10 defensive group. Would be a great fit next to Rui. People also have to remember that Deni is just a rookie, his defensive ability and shooting will obviously improve.

[Ruzious]

I know most on this board think that Rui would be better off at SF, but I disagree. I think in almost all situations, a tweener is better off playing the bigger position. Lebron is more effective at PF, Anthony Davis is better at center, etc.

If we drafted Mobley, we might have to slide Rui over to SF to accommodate him, but we would be anxiously awaiting the day that Mobley could shift to center so that Rui could go back to PF and we could outskill the competition - at least in crunch time.

It was a different era, and Rui is a different player, but I thought of Jamison when I read this and how much he struggled defensively at the 4.

Probably the right answer is he can play both positions depending on matchups and the other forward playing with Rui.

It’s only a topic of discussion because we haven’t had a C capable of protecting the rim and rebounding outside his area (12+ rebounds per36).

If we did, I totally agree with Nate that in this era, you play the more athletic floor spacing player “up” a spot as opposed to down. The league is all about switching and shooting 3s.

Hopefully Gafford develops into a real defensive anchor that controls the paint and by himself, turns a team into a top 10 defensive group. Would be a great fit next to Rui. People also have to remember that Deni is just a rookie, his defensive ability and shooting will obviously improve.

The Celtics are an example of playing up in position. 10 years ago, Tatum would be considered a 3 and Brown would likely be a 2. But Tatum primarily plays the 4, while Brown is the 3. And they've have a lot of success with that - despite the mediocre record this year.

[DCZards]

Here’s a (long) excerpt from today’s The Athletic article about Hachimura. The full story is at the link at the bottom but you probably won’t be able to access it if you don’t subscribe to The Athletic.

In the balance of the article, Katz & Partnow mostly talk about analytics, including how Rui takes too many mid-range jumpers (which I disagree with) and how his recent clip of shooting 3s at around 40% is unsustainable given his past history as a 3pt shooter.

Wizards’ Rui Hachimura has played his best basketball in the last 10 games. Breakout or flash in the pan?

By Fred Katz & Seth Partnow

Three weeks ago marked one of many times Wizards coach Scott Brooks would remind his starting power forward to be more aggressive.

Rui Hachimura had just gotten 21 minutes of run against the 76ers without pulling down a rebound. He’s no glass glutton, but this was new, the first time since entering the NBA in 2019 he’d gone an entire game without grabbing a board. The goose egg was indicative of a theme the Wizards identified long ago. He looks like a different player when he competes with force, but he doesn’t always do it. So, following the Philadelphia game, the usual advice came from Brooks once again; Hachimura had to be more aggressive.

He’s heard it from his coach, from Bradley Beal and now, from Russell Westbrook regularly. Westbrook, specifically, has spent practices getting in his face and trying to pump him up. Hachimura reminds himself of it and repeats it in sessions with reporters as if he’s reciting high school cheers: “Just be aggressive,” he says.

Well, maybe he’s found something.

For the last three weeks, Hachimura has played his best basketball since entering the NBA — and not just on the glass. He’s averaging 20.2 points and 7.8 rebounds in the 10 games following the Philly matchup and just went for a career-high-tying 30 points Wednesday against the Hornets. He’s turned more assertive rising for shots he likes, essential for someone whose hesitance could break up offensive flow as a rookie.

He’s topped 20 points six times during this stretch. He’s made more than half of his shots six times, too.
The Wizards said when they drafted Hachimura No. 9 overall two years ago that one of the reasons they liked him so much, in spite of him being a three-year collegian, was that he started playing basketball as a teenager. A late start, to them, meant the potential for a steep improvement arc. Aside from some adjustments here and there (most notably the 3-point and free-throw rate climbing a bit), his identity mostly remained steady from his rookie season into 2020-21.

But these past 10 games have looked different.

The Wizards have invested part of their future in Hachimura. Is the hot streak indicative of long-term change? Or is this a mirage? Wizards beat writer Fred Katz sat down with analytics expert Seth Partnow to discuss.

Katz: Seth, one of the reasons I wanted to chat with you, specifically, about this is because of the way analytics-literate observers have viewed Hachimura historically. The numbers haven’t been so friendly to him, almost no matter how you cut it. He doesn’t rely on 3s, is cushiest pulling up from mid-range and hasn’t gotten to the line consistently. The all-encompassing statistics — your PERs and VORPS of the world — aren’t flattering. And analytics-leaning people have shied away from labeling him a featured player.

But just about everything is shiny during these 10 games. He and the rest of the team have used the word “aggressive” so often that Brooks might as well bring a thesaurus to his next media availability, just so he can shake it up. He’s shooting 56 percent on 2-pointers and 41 percent on 3s. It sure feels like he’s finishing stronger around the rim. He’s passing the eye test. He’s been a little more clever finding space off the ball, too.

He credits the progression to none other than Westbrook, who he seems to mention just about every time he meets with reporters.

The two clearly have something good going. And Westbrook is looking for him; 45 percent of Hachimura’s buckets during these 10 games have come off Westbrook assists. That’s essentially four dishes a game Westbrook is handing him. It’s no joke. Some of those are spot-up 3s. But many are around the rim. And that’s where the aggressiveness Westbrook, Hachimura and everyone else has pounded into our heads seems to be showing.
https://theathletic.com/2491246/2021/04/01/wizards-rui-hachimura-has-played-his-best-basketball-in-the-last-10-games-breakout-or-flash-in-the-pan/?source=dailyemail

[Halcyon]

So, no, in the last 3 games Rui hasn't kept up the 7-game improvement.

That's because in the last 3 games, he hasn't had Bradley Beal to draw defensive attention. Rui isn't yet good enough of a shot creator to be the second option. Right now he is a third option. He still needs most of his shots to be in the flow of the offense or against a mismatch. He's not yet good enough to just create his own shot against a primary defender in a set defense with high efficiency. Few 2nd year players are.

But let's not diminish his scoring volume on mediocre efficiency. That's not easy either. How many guys in his draft class can do it other than Zion and Morant? My quick screen of the stats over the last 10 games ...

As I'm sure you are aware, if you know in advance what you want to prove, you can always find a dataset to prove it true. In this case, why would we measure comparative scoring over the last 10 games? B/c Rui had a string of better than usual games than usual? So we should look at other guys across the same stretch of time?

How about we measure over the season as a whole? Tell you what... I'll go look.

...Well that took 90 seconds. Let's just start with Keldon Johnson, a 6'5" guard-forward, who was taken #29 in the same draft in which Rui went #9. Two years younger than Rui.

The two guys have played almost exactly the same # of minutes this year -- But Johnson only played 300 minutes last year, so Rui has twice the experience.

As scorers this year, the 2 of them are very close. Johnson scores @ 1/3 point more than Rui per 40 minutes. Rui's TS% is @1.5% below average at his position; Johnson's is @1% lower than average at his position.

The rest isn't really close: Johnson's a 2-3 -- yet he gets slightly more defensive boards than Rui, he gets way more offensive boards than Rui, he blocks way more shots than Rui, & he gets more assists than Rui. Rui closes the gap a little by logging slightly more steals & slightly fewer fouls.

If we just look at how well guys have played overall -- i.e. rather than focusing on scoring whether efficient or inefficient -- it would be easy to add several more players taken well after Rui in the same draft who have been significantly better so far than Rui has been.

But, there would be no point to the exercise, just as there is no point to the exercise of demonstrating that, somehow, Rui increasing his scoring while lowering efficiency is evidence of what a good player he is. Every player in every league in every country on planet Earth will score more points if he takes more shots!

Rui is a 23 year old NBA player who has logged @2700 minutes in his first 2 years in the league. Has he been good so far? No. Is he good right now? No. Rui is a well below average NBA player. Will he be good some day? I hope so. & so do you. But, I don't know that he will be. & neither do you.

Most important: my pointing to the facts won't hold Rui back, & a bunch of fans on a message board blowing in his balloon won't accelerate his growth either.

Rinse & repeat with Deni Avdija -- I thought he'd be good right away. So far, he's been bad. So far, it looks like we'd have been a whole lot better off taking Haliburton this year & trading down last year to get Mr. Unnameable & Keldon Johnson.

Players aren't just numbers on a spreadsheet. I highly doubt the same players who succeed elsewhere succeed the same way under this coaching staff.

[WallToWall]

Ok, so I got these numbers from basketball-reference.com, deleted all players who are not PF's. The list shows where Rui ranks among all PF's, in terms of rebounding (per 36 mins), for the season so far. If you look at the last 10 games, Rui is at 7.4 rbs per 36 mins.

[tontoz]

I would agree that he takes too many midrange shots. However i also think those shots have value late in the shot clock and in the postseason when it is harder to get to the rim.

[FAH1223]

Read on Twitter

Kevin Broom with the sobering analysis!

[payitforward]

You proved my point.

Not possible. You don't have one.

This is not about basketball or statistics or math, ruz; it's about a well-established field called "Logic." If you're really interested I'll be happy to point you to where the point is made in the "real" (i.e. not my) writing on the subject.

And anyone who understands both logic and basketball also realizes there are many outside factors that individual players cannot control that affect outcomes....

Good God -- of course there are! & that too has nothing special to do with basketball! It's true in every single aspect of life for every single human being. Starting with where/how you happen to be born.

...You choose to ignore that....

Not in the slightest -- just to take one obvious example, I have stressed over and over the major role chance plays in the draft.

In any case, my point was the opposite -- you were the one confidently predicting a particular outcome if those "outside factors ...that affect outcomes" came into play. My point was precisely what you are saying here -- that you can't know what the result of one of those changes would be.

IOW, not only are you agreeing with me in what you write here, but you are contradicting yourself. But, I'm not going to make some kind of big deal out of it, because that is not my way.

[payitforward]

Read on Twitter

Kevin Broom with the sobering analysis!

Yes, this is exactly accurate. I'm copying it in here, so someone doesn't misrepresent it in a way to make it seem less absolute:

I swear I’m not picking on Rui Hachimura. He’s drawn my attention because I’m seeing a mismatch between what the team and its fans are saying about him and what he’s accomplishing on the court.

The Narrative is that he’s making a leap, perhaps The Leap. Yet in the 9 games since my last full season Player Production Average (PPA) update, his overall performance has declined.

How is that possible? During those 9 games, he’s averaged 17.9 points and 6.9 rebounds per game while shooting 51.1% from the field and 33.3% from three-point range. That’s pretty good, right?

Actually, no. During that span, he’s played a ton of minutes (37.1 per game), and given that kind of time on the court, his production is pedestrian. On a per possession basis, his performance and impact remains below average.

His FG% looks superficially good because most of his shots are from two-point range. Over the last 9, he’s 53.8% on twos vs. a league average of 52.8%. Not bad. But, league average on threes is .367, and he averaged just 2 attempts per game in that span.

The net is that his effective field goal percentage has been a shade below average (.533 to .537) over the last 9. (Yet)... virtually all of his value is in scoring. He doesn’t rebound well. He’s not a playmaker. Despite The Narrative, he’s still a weak defender.

Hachimura, a 6-8 forward whose size and frame has drawn comparisons to Kawhi Leonard has four blocked shots total this season. For comparison, Kyrie Irving has 21. T.J. McConnell has 15. Trae Young has 11. Teammate Garrison Mathews has 6, in nearly 500 fewer minutes. His lack of defensive awareness is at times stunning to watch.

It’s difficult to understate just how ordinary Hachimura has been this season.

[Ruzious]

Not possible. You don't have one.

This is not about basketball or statistics or math, ruz; it's about a well-established field called "Logic." If you're really interested I'll be happy to point you to where the point is made in the "real" (i.e. not my) writing on the subject.

And anyone who understands both logic and basketball also realizes there are many outside factors that individual players cannot control that affect outcomes....

Good God -- of course there are! & that too has nothing special to do with basketball! It's true in every single aspect of life for every single human being. Starting with where/how you happen to be born.

...You choose to ignore that....

Not in the slightest -- just to take one obvious example, I have stressed over and over the major role chance plays in the draft.

In any case, my point was the opposite -- you were the one confidently predicting a particular outcome if those "outside factors ...that affect outcomes" came into play. My point was precisely what you are saying here -- that you can't know what the result of one of those changes would be.

IOW, not only are you agreeing with me in what you write here, but you are contradicting yourself. But, I'm not going to make some kind of big deal out of it, because that is not my way.

Pif, don't come back 2 days later to continue a conversation. It's not fair to everyone else - gotta go back to see what in the hell you're talking about. Not only that, it looks clear you've forgotten what we were talking about, because nothing you said there makes any sense whatsoever and has zero... to do with what I said. The subject was the fact that you never look beyond the stats to adjust for things the players can't control - which you've already admitted to be the case. There's really no point in discussing it further.